-by Sunstroke Stevens

Welcome to the 2006 Draft. The report was pushed to the last minute, primarily due to Dave Gray’s retainer check somehow getting lost in the mail. No problem...I’m sure it will get here eventually.

It seems like just yesterday that the 2005 season ended. Oh wait...I keep forgetting; for the hardcore football fan, the NFL season never truly ends. It just transitions from action on the field to action in the transaction log. As soon as the Super Bowl is over, it’s over, and every single team scrambles to get ready for the next season.

And boy howdy, have teams been scrambling this offseason...

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes...

Have you ever seen more coaching changes, both among head coaches and coordinators as the league experienced this offseason?

Of course you haven’t...

Ten NFL teams hired new head coaches:
Bills – Dick Jauron
Packers – Mike McCarthy*
Chiefs – Herm Edwards
Texans – Gary Kubiak*
Lions – Rod Marinelli*
Saints – Sean Payton*
Jets – Eric Mangini*
Vikings – Brad Childress*
Raiders – Art Shell...again
Rams – Scott Linehan*

Seven of these gentlemen (denoted by asterisk) are first-timers as NFL head coaches, meaning they have no track record in regards to draft strategies, personnel makeup preferences, etc... One of the primary reasons you see such radical differences of opinion in published mock drafts is because all seven of those brand-spanking-new head coaches have picks in the top-11, and with no draft history to go on, you see a whole lot of sports writers just flat out guessing.

That includes yours truly...

Understanding the coaching and front office changes is important, but not nearly as important as having a firm handle on the free agency moves that each team has made during the offseason. After all, a new head coach may not have any draft strategy trends...yet, but if he has areas on his team that are undeniably weak, you can feel pretty safe that coach will look to shore up the weak areas through free agency first, and then the draft.

Several key skill position players changed teams... Edgerrin James left the high-powered Colts offense to try to resurrect the Cardinals rushing attack, taking Arizona out of the market for a first round running back. Terrell Owens can now stand on the Dallas Star any time his heart desires, and Bill Parcells probably won’t go after a WR in the first round as a result. For you hardcore fans of the offensive line, two of the best interior linemen in the game reaped big contracts by relocating, with guard Steve Hutchinson signing in Minnesota and center LeCharles Bentley landing in Cleveland.

Here in South Florida, the Dolphins traded for Daunte Culpepper to shore up their QB position, and are looking at signing another NFC North QB in Joey Harrington as a potential backup. A month ago, the possibility of Nick Saban going after a QB like Jay Cutler in round one seemed pretty decent. Now? Not so much... Miami also added some pop to a running game that will be minus Ricky Williams by adding tackle LJ Shelton and former pro bowl fullback Fred Beasley. On defense, Miami added a couple of defensive backs in cornerback Will Allen from the Giants and safety Deke Cooper from the Jaguars.

Now that almost all of the biscuits have been gobbled up off the free agency buffet, let’s take a look at Miami’s primary need areas and the prospects available at those positions. The Dolphins, despite signing LJ Shelton, still need a top-shelf offensive tackle to protect Culpepper. If you think Hudson Houck did an excellent job with sub-par talent last season, watch what he does with a blue chipper to work with. A second need area is the defensive backfield, both cornerback and safety. Despite Will Allen and Deke Cooper coming aboard, Miami needs to add some young playmakers to a unit which ranked 20 th in passing yards allowed per game and 25 th in TD passes allowed. Other positions likely to be considered by Miami include WR, which is pretty mediocre behind Chris Chambers, and outside linebacker, though signing Sedrick Hodge will help fill Junior Seau’s old slot until a better replacement can be developed.

Making the Grade

OK, need areas all properly laid out...but how do you decide which draft prospects will translate into the best players at the next level? There isn’t a sure-fire way of grading prospects, because if there was, someone would have figured it out already and created a dynasty of dynasties. Honestly, the best you can do is measure the tangibles (size, speed, athletic ability), analyze the intangibles (character and maturity issues, general intelligence, positional knowledge and instincts) and try to accurately determine which identifiable traits at each position consistently carry over from college to the NFL.

NFL personnel gurus get plenty of opportunities to scrutinize prospects in the gauntlet of showcases that start in January and run through the draft. The Senior Bowl, the Combine, Pro Days, individual workouts...all serve to help teams ascertain which prospects are the best fit for value and need as they go into the draft. Now, thanks to the internet, ESPN and the NFL network, even the common fan can watch most of the pre-draft festivities and judge the players for themselves.

Here are some general thoughts regarding these pre-draft events...

Senior Bowl: Comes too quickly on the heels of the college season, and I feel that some players come into it a little burned out, which can possibly cause a skewed value assessment. A very limited number of players are invited, and many that play treat it as an all-star game, rather than serious competition.

NFL Combine: Can be a statistical overload, with hundreds of prospects performing dozens of different physical drills. The key to the Combine is to recognize which drills are actually relevant to that player’s position. Does it really matter if a 320 lb offensive tackle can run a sub-5 second time in the 40? Of course not, though it weighs a little toward that lineman’s overall level of conditioning. If you want to watch drills that matter for an offensive lineman, you watch their footwork and their hand-to-hand technique in the pass protection mirror drill, where they line up against a defensive lineman and, moving laterally back and forth, prevent the D-lineman from getting around him. You watch his balance in the shuttle drills, because a lineman who can’t keep his balance will spend more time on his butt at the next level than he does on his feet. Defensive backs? Let me see his 40 time and watch him a couple of times in the backpedal/reaction break drill and the W-drill (measures short burst change of direction) and I know pretty much everything I need to know about his cover skills.

Pro Days: Most major universities hold them, and some hold multiple Pro Days. Leaned on by personnel guys more for quarterbacks and receivers, since some feel that the unfamiliarity between QB and WRs from different schools during Combine passing drills downgrades the QBs accuracy and timing. During the Pro Day, the QB is throwing to familiar targets on a familiar field and are more likely to impress.

Individual workouts: You can look at these in a couple of different ways. A team could genuinely have interest in a player, or wants to send up a smokescreen and make other teams “believe” they have that interest, in order to gain an advantage in potential trade negotiations. I tend to take the individual workout reports with a grain of salt, since the validity levels are highly questionable.

Draft Prospects

Here are a few of the prospects at Miami’s need positions who I believe will be able to make the jump up to the next level and become solid starters, and also likely be available in a position for Miami to select with one of their first three picks (#16, #82, #114). I left out the 7 th round fodder ( Miami has three 7 th rounders), simply because there are just way too manyprospects who grade out pretty much equally among the late round “reach” prospects. Listed in order of perceived future studliness and draft expectations...

Defensive Backs

Tye Hill, CB, Clemson – Think fast, real fast...and then just a little bit faster. You still haven’t caught up to Tye on the fly. The first cornerback since Deion Sanders to have legitimate Deion Sanders speed. Take that speed and add it to the best-in-class performance in the backpedal/reaction drill tells me he can probably cover any NFL burner right now. He’ll probably be available at #16 (most mocks have him between #16 and #20) and would immediately improve the Dolphins pass defense dramatically.

Jimmy Williams, CB, Va. Tech – One of those “great athlete, but character issue concerns” type of player. Jimmy has good speed, excellent instincts and superior man to man cover skills. If he goes to a team with strong defensive player leadership, he could develop to be almost as good as Tye Hill. Almost... He will probably be available at #16 as well.

Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St. – Pure safety who covers well enough, but isn’t quite as big as you’d like from a safety (5’10”, 210 lbs). He plays run support well and is a ballhawk when roaming back in coverage. Excellent attitude and work ethic and drive to improve his game (hired several specialists to work with this offseason). Still needs to work on his technique a little, but showed me enough physical skills to make me feel he’ll have a long solid career in the NFL. Would be considered a slight reach at #16, but not a huge one. Maybe if Nick somehow ends up trading down to the #20-#25 area, Whitner would be a better value.

Johnathon Joseph, CB, S. Carolina – Everyone seems to be jumping on his bandwagon as the draft approaches, but I still see him as only the 5 th-6 th best DB in this year’s class. Great wheels, and good cover skills, but is so new to playing the corner that he’s gonna get burned a lot by savvy veteran WRs with double moves his rookie season. Had a foot injury which raises some concerns as well, but his performance this offseason have most people putting those concerns to rest. Definitely will be there at #16.

Daniel Bullocks, S, Nebraska – Going out of the first couple of rounds, Bullocks is a player I think has great potential to be a playmaker in the NFL. Still developing his coverage skills, but with 4.4 speed on a good sized frame, I think he’ll continue to improve in that area. Excellent in run support, hits like a linebacker and has a great head for the position. I think he could conceivably slide to #82.

Cedric Griffin, CB, Texas – Didn’t clock very fast in the 40 (4.51), but runs quicker than that. Great change of direction quickness makes up for the lack of top end speed a little as well. He played pretty obscurely in college because he played beside a couple of pretty good DBs in Nathan Vasher and Michael Huff. Strong enough to handle the biggest receivers, his ability to play the run will give him the versatility he’ll need to stick at the next level. Could easily slide to #82 if the projected glut of late first-early second round DBs takes the bite out of the DB frenzy until Miami’s mid 3 rd round pick.

Charles Gordon, CB/KR, Kansas – Think Wes Welker with a little better bloodline. He can play everything from corner to receiver to return man, and does everything with a high motor (my nominee for most overused football cliché). Maybe not quite as fast as Welker, at least by the clock, but has the same explosive burst. Developmental prospect as a DB, but would earn his keep on special teams until a good fit position could be determined. Will definitely be there at #82.

Offensive Linemen

Winston Justice, OT, USC – The rumors are starting to spread that the best OT in the draft not named D’Brickashaw will slide a little tomorrow, due primarily to the most likely suitor, Philadelphia, looking at receiver and defensive line needs at #14. If Justice is served up to Miami at #16, it is almost a no-brainer. Even though he played on the right side at USC because of the left-handed Leinart, he has the quick kick out step that a lot of the tall tackles (Justice is 6’6”, 322 lbs) often lack. Plays mean, and I love a mean O-tackle. Quarterbacks love mean O-tackles on their blindside even more. Everyone knows about his run in with the law in 2003-2004 with the prostitute and the replica handgun, but he appears to have matured a bit in the past two years. Besides, with the money he’ll be making, he can pay extra for higher end (read: more discreet) companionship, and his bodyguard can carry the “non-replica” firearm from this point on...

Marcus McNeill, Auburn – If Miami gets no justice, and Nick decides to go O-line anyway at #16, McNeill is the only choice worthy of the first round. Winston Justice may be big, but McNeill is a behemoth. 6’7½” and a svelte 335 lbs, almost as fast as Justice, but his feet aren’t as nifty (Did I really just call a 300+ lb lineman’s feet “nifty?” Why yes, yes I did). The only warning flag on McNeill is a medical condition called spinal stenosis, but most medical personnel don’t feel it will be a concern for McNeill’s NFL future.

Jeremy Trueblood, Boston College – Jeremy and the next four tackles will all be available in the third round when Miami hands in their selection, and quite possibly all of them will be available in round four as well. Trueblood could easily come off the board before Miami has a shot at him in round three (I’ve seen some people projecting him as high as mid 2 nd round, but I think that was his cousin). If he is there at #82 and Miami hasn’t already addressed the O-line, Trueblood would be a solid pick. The tallest among this year’s tackles at 6’8”, 315 lbs, Trueblood will need to add a little weight to take true advantage of his height at the next level. I heard Mel Kiper say he doesn’t have that mean mentality you like to see, but I think Jeremy is just so tall that Mel couldn’t see his menacing scowl.

Joe Toledo, Washington – OK, time for a little bit of my Pac-10 bias to come out. I love Joe Toledo. I used to love him as a pile driving tight end for the Huskies, but Joe moved over to tackle in his senior season out of team necessity and was an immediate monster in both pass protection and run blocking situations. A hair under 6’6” tall and 335 lbs, Joey-T has natural TE speed and footwork, but was also second among all offensive linemen at the Combine in the bench press (32 reps). Fast, strong and coachable. With this much raw talent, Joe Toledo is the type of tackle who could come in immediately, and likely struggle a little as he gets his feet wet, but under Houck’s tutelage, could really turn into something special. If Miami goes with defense in round 1 and 3, I could think of a lot worse picks in the middle of round 4 than Joe Toledo.

Jabari Levey, South Carolina – I’ve heard conflicting reports out of Carolina about Jabari’s work ethic since his senior season ended, and that is the only concern I have. If Jabari can get some discipline and work on his conditioning and overall athletic ability, he has every other tool needed to play tackle in the NFL. Strong enough to pancake defenders on the edge, big hands and long arms and a good center of balance in pass protection. He just isn’t the greatest athlete in the bunch.

Derek Morris, NC State – Another solid tackle prospect who only has one glaring area of concern. Morris had some problems with his weight during his time at NC State (currently 332 lbs on his 6’5½” frame, down from 345 at the end of last season) That said, the pudgy sucker just flat out gets it done. Strong as an ox and looked pretty nimble for a big man doing the short shuttle at NC State’s pro day. He has that great work ethic that makes you want to believe he’ll be able to resist gorging himself on Krispy Kremes once he cashes his bonus check. Aw, who am I kidding...

Troy Reddick, Auburn – Played in relative obscurity on the other side of Auburn’s O-line from Marcus McNeill, Reddick is a shorter, squatter build of tackle (6’4”, 340 lbs), and looked very good at Auburn’s pro day when NFL coaches put him through line drills. Played some guard a few years ago, and lack of height and less than ideal foot speed for the tackle position makes me think that he’ll end up going to the interior line at some point early in his pro career. I still think it will be a solid career and be a decent grab in the 4 th round or later.

Wide Receivers

Chad Jackson, Florida – I really don’t believe that Miami will go after a receiver in round one like some of the mock drafts seem to believe, but if they do, and the former Gator is still on the board...Chad Jackson is hands-down the cream of the crop. Sorry Santonio, but Chad has the best hands I have seen on a college prospect in a very long time. He looked like he had magnets on during the Combine multi-catch and over the shoulder catch drills, and in the ESPN challenge held here in Miami a few months ago, he was flawless as he swept all the receiving skills competitions. Good size at 6’0” 212 lbs, Jackson ran a blistering 4.32 40 yd time at the Combine, and was also tops in the shuttle drill (3.99 seconds) which measures change of direction quickness. Chad’s ready for the NFL right now, and if he goes to a team with a legitimate passing attack, he becomes an immediate rookie of the year candidate.

Santonio Holmes , Ohio St. – At the end of last season, Santonio was being projected in the top-10 by most early bird mock drafts. Through no fault of his own, he’s slid down the order a little bit and will most likely be there at #16 (Philly at #14 could get jiggy with either Chad or Santonio). Pretty close to the same speed as Jackson, Santonio ran between 4.34 and 4.38 in workouts. My biggest concern with Holmes isn’t his height (5’10”) as much as it is his weight (178 lbs, down 10 lbs from the end of last season). That kind of weight loss on that slight of a frame tells me that Santonio probably hasn’t maintained his weight regimen and is losing a little muscle mass. That tells me Santonio could start a little slower in camp as he gets beefed back up a little.

Jason Avant, Michigan – I’ve seen some scouts rate Avant as high as late second round, but others feel he will slide deep into round three. I agree with the latter assessment, and if Miami looks to go after a WR in round three, Avant would be an excellent choice. He may not have ideal speed (best 40 time in workouts was a 4.6), but plays faster. Only receiver in the class with hands anywhere near as good as Jackson, Avant might even be better in traffic. I expect Avant to develop into a great middle of the field receiver, and have a solid NFL career.

Skyler Green, LSU – Smaller (5’9½”) and shiftier than the other receivers in this group, Skyler Green was Mr. Excitement in LSU’s return game, earning All American honors as a punt returner for coach Saban in 2003. If Nick goes after Skyler in round four, I would think it signified Miami wanting to get Wes Welker more involved in the passing game, and need a good return man to take over some of those duties from Wes. Same open field elusiveness...doesn’t have Welker’s initial burst, but is just as much of a threat to take it to the house when it hits his hands.

Brandon Marshall, Central Florida – Largest of the mid-round wide receivers at 6’4”, 229, Marshall’s 4.55 speed doesn’t qualify him as a burner, but combine it with his size, and it can cause matchup problems for defenses. Some people question his attitude, but I think that is based more on ancient history (1 game suspension in 2004) than current issues. A high risk, high reward player if ever there was one in round four.

Outside Linebacker

DeMeco Ryans , Alabama – The next two first round OLB’s listed after DeMeco are graded out higher by pretty much all the experts, but I believe DeMeco deserves to be at the top of this group. The first time I ever saw DeMeco play with my own eyes, it was his sophomore season in a televised game against the Razorbacks. I came away thinking “I don’t believe I’ve ever seen one player make every tackle on every play the entire game before today...” While he wasn’t actually in on “every” tackle, he did set an Alabama record with 25 tackles...I’ve been in love with Ryans ever since. Everything you want from the tangible side of things...speed, strength, a polished technician and vise-grip tackler. Everything you want from the intangible side...Intelligence, ballhawk instincts, great character and a work ethic that makes me feel he’ll bust his butt in the weight room and film room until he becomes a top caliber NFL linebacker. I give him three years to his first pro Bowl...

Chad Greenway, Iowa – Another excellent prospect in a class of linebackers that I think will come to be seen as incredibly deep and talented, once hindsight has been applied. I rate Greenway and Sims evenly, despite Greenway being listed first Greenway has great initial burst when going after the QB, but will need to get a lot stronger (only 16 reps on the bench is weak for a LB) to handle NFL O-linemen. He has a good frame to pack on muscle though at 6’2” and 242 lbs. I like Greenway’s ability to play off the ball and was rarely out of position during his Hawkeye career. Had a serious knee injury back in 2002, but has played so well since his return that few people are really concerned over it at this point. While I’d prefer Ryans personally, Greenway or Sims would be the popular pick if Miami goes after a LB at #16.

Ernie Sims, Florida St. – One of the smaller members of the 2006 LB class at 5’11”, 231 lbs, Sims is living proof that if you’re explosive enough, size really isn’t an issue. Ernie can flat out bring it to the opposing QB (at a malevolent 4.48 clip) and once he gets settled in as a rookie, could be a frequent member of the Sunday night “Jacked Up!” highlight reel. Great hands at the point of attack, and until he adds a little bit of mass, he’ll need that skill when he gets in tight with an O-lineman. Would contribute to Miami’s defense immediately if selected at #16.

There are obviously a lot more prospects that could be written about here...I believe this draft class is an extremely deep and talented one. If you have any questions about other prospects, you can post them in the Around the NFL channel and I’m always glad to offer my opinion. On a clumsy segue (it is 2 AM, clumsy’s the best you get), I’d like to underscore one very simple fact...this report has been chock full of “my opinion” on this year’s draft prospects. Others could (and do) feel differently about how certain players project as professionals. As always, use your own eyes whenever possible and come to your own conclusions and you’ll already be ahead of the scouting curve.

(Offseason overview/Draft capsules for the non-Dolphins teams that requested it will be posted in the regular message forum later this morning.)

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