Who will be the GOP nominee?

[Spider-Dan]

Right, but I think that the majority of DeSantis' support came from the Trump-without-the-baggage wing of the GOP.  So I don't think DeSantis' supporters will necessarily fall to Trump in the primary (in the general, they certainly will).

To draw a comparison: when Elizabeth Warren dropped out in 2020, her supporters didn't fall to Bernie.  They largely went to Biden, because Warren was the preferred candidate for progressive voters who don't support Bernie.  If you were on the socialist left and didn't already support Bernie (the most popular candidate representing that faction), it was because you had some problem with him as a candidate, and Warren dropping out doesn't erase those problems.  So it is with DeSantis and Trump.

[Dave Gray]

Right, but I think that the majority of DeSantis' support came from the Trump-without-the-baggage wing of the GOP.  So I don't think DeSantis' supporters will necessarily fall to Trump in the primary (in the general, they certainly will).

That's just what the polling is saying.  Desantis voters have Trump as their 2nd choice, by big margins.  That could all change and at least they're open to someone who isn't Trump.  But I think this is all sealed up.

[CF DolFan]

That's just what the polling is saying.  Desantis voters have Trump as their 2nd choice, by big margins.  That could all change and at least they're open to someone who isn't Trump.  But I think this is all sealed up.

Trump and DeSantis' policies are very similar although DeSantis is definitely more conservative socially. For a DeSantis voter to vote Trump they would have to ignore the Trump persona and vote strictly on policies. Nikki is viewed as the establishment pick. I had a hardline Trump supporter tell me yesterday that he believes DeSantis wouldn't bow to big business so his big money backers left him and went to Haley. He completely sees her as a sell out to corporations like BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street ... who basically own everything. 

Saw this quote in an article and I think it pretty much sums up where we are right now.

'Nikki Haley's support is not about Nikki Haley. Only two percent say they are voting for her because of her policies,' said Johnson added.

'Instead it is about stopping Donald Trump. That, coupled with low enthusiasm for Haley, limits her voting pool in these primaries to a relatively small number of people, especially in later contests where undeclared voters cannot vote.

'Meanwhile Trump's supporters are energised for positive reasons: Trump's strength, his plans on the economy and – above all – his record in his first term.

'This is an election that Trump dominates: even his opposition knows it.'

[Dave Gray]

Haley will probably just stay in, because it's cheap and there's not a lot to do.  There are no debates, campaigning doesn't matter.  She's already on the ballot.

Trump could deal with jail, death, medical incapacitation, scandal, etc.  Not likely, but she will have delegates and could potentially be the president, so it's an outside chance, but great rewards and all she has to do is nothing.

[CF DolFan]

As I've gotten older I've learned people have many reasons for why they vote regardless of if it seems like a bad idea to others. What you call problems may not even be on the radar as to why someone is or isn't voting Biden.

I posted this in another thread but it's relevant. I am seeing how some Trump supporters are supporting him just based off the last election alone. They would have supported someone else in the GOP for this election but they are still pissed that "America" chose a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," and it led us to much of the stuff we are currently dealing with. They think another round of Trump should be the punishment deserved to those who voted for Biden just because he wasn't Trump. For me, I just think it means the GOP will be putting up one of the few candidates who could actually loose to a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,".

[Spider-Dan]

I posted this in another thread but it's relevant. I am seeing how some Trump supporters are supporting him just based off the last election alone. They would have supported someone else in the GOP for this election but they are still pissed that "America" chose a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," and it led us to much of the stuff we are currently dealing with. They think another round of Trump should be the punishment deserved to those who voted for Biden just because he wasn't Trump.

Once again, Democrats are somehow responsible for the choices of Republican voters.  They "would have voted" for someone else, but we made them so MAD they just had to vote for the same guy they already voted for twice.  OK.

And to be clear: the thing that Democrats did that made them mad was... not allow Trump to beat Biden.  So I guess the point here is that if Trump had won in 2020, GOP voters wouldn't feel forced to vote for Trump again in 2024?  This is not the revelation you think it is.

P.S. Wouldn't this logic go both ways?  I mean, you don't see Democrats saying that Republicans made them vote for a senile old codger because they chose to put a corrupt admitted sexual assaulter in office in 2016, but if we're blaming others for our votes, that blade cuts both ways.

[Dave Gray]

"It's the Democrats fault that the Republicans keep choosing shitty candidates" is quite the take.

[Spider-Dan]

Let me just add a bit to my last post.

Upon further reflection, given CF's previous statements on the primary, it's possible he was not offering a defense of these "Look what you made me do" voters, and was merely relaying their position.  If that is the case, considering that said position is entirely about blaming 2020 Democrats for the votes of 2024 Republicans, I think it would have been appropriate to include some push back on the claim being made by GOP voters; if you don't believe that Democrats are at fault for Republican votes, it's irresponsible to passively recite that attack without comment.

[masterfins]

"It's the Democrats fault that the Republicans keep choosing shitty candidates" is quite the take.

lol

I guess conversely, it's the Republicans fault that the Democrats keep choosing shitty candidates.

[masterfins]

I predict that Trump will win the most states in primaries but he'll get arrested, or something, and it will be a big battle at the Republican National Convention, with Nikki Haley becoming the nominee.

[Dave Gray]

I predict that Trump will win the most states in primaries but he'll get arrested, or something, and it will be a big battle at the Republican National Convention, with Nikki Haley becoming the nominee.

I don't believe there's a political mechanism in place for this to happen.

Unless Trump leaves on his own, he cannot be removed.  They don't do the superdelegate thing like Democrats and furthermore, Trump changed a bunch of the rules to ensure that he gets all the delegates in the later States.

[Dave Gray]

Trump could literally die.  That's Haley's best shot at the presidency.

Outside of that (and I don't even see how), Trump could be coaxed into stepping away -- maybe the polling after a conviction gets so bad for him that he's not going to win anyway, and then he takes a plea deal that includes not running for president.  But I don't think this is possible.

[Sunstroke]

Trump could literally die. 

If that happened, I wonder how long it would take the GOP to ditch the MAGAites? Geez, I might even, one day, get to vote Republican again.

[CF DolFan]

Once again, Democrats are somehow responsible for the choices of Republican voters.  They "would have voted" for someone else, but we made them so MAD they just had to vote for the same guy they already voted for twice.  OK.

And to be clear: the thing that Democrats did that made them mad was... not allow Trump to beat Biden.  So I guess the point here is that if Trump had won in 2020, GOP voters wouldn't feel forced to vote for Trump again in 2024?  This is not the revelation you think it is.

P.S. Wouldn't this logic go both ways?  I mean, you don't see Democrats saying that Republicans made them vote for a senile old codger because they chose to put a corrupt admitted sexual assaulter in office in 2016, but if we're blaming others for our votes, that blade cuts both ways.

LOL ... you are part of the world who turns everything into being a victim. The GOP voters are 100% responsible for who they vote for regardless of "why" they voted that way.  Conservatism is basically accepting the declaration that we are, and should be, responsible for our choices and the consequences that follow.

[Spider-Dan]

CF, you've never heard me say that Dem voters would have supported someone better, but instead voted for Obama or Hillary or Biden because they were mad about how Republicans have acted so they are voting to punish everyone else.  That kind of mindset is literally childish.  It's what you would expect from a toddler.