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Things I know before today's start of the NFL meetings

Clearing out the notebook before I refill at the NFL's Annual Meeting starting today in Palm Beach:

1. The Dolphins definitely have plans for John Beck. When coach Tony Sparano talks with his coaches and confidants about Miami's need to get leadership from younger players, he mentions the second-year quarterback. Sparano thinks great teams are ones with leaders that are in their third, fourth and fifth seasons -- guys in their prime. Sparano has been mentioning Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn Jr. and Beck as guys that will be the nucleus of the team in the next couple of years. So don't write the QB off.

2. The Dolphins draft board is set. It was set last week. That means the Dolphins already know who they are going to draft if they cannot trade out of that No. 1 overall pick. They desperately want to trade out of that pick. By the way, don't ask me who they would pick because I've asked and the person I asked laughed at me.

3. New GM Jeff Ireland is a big believer in production. Like everyone else, he appreciates when an athlete runs a great time at the combine or at his pro day, but he appreciates more when a player performs and produces on the field. Given the choice of one or the other, Ireland will lean toward the player.

4. Ireland also isn't inclined to draft for need early in the selection process. He's more likely going to want the player with the best grade on the board. He does believe, however, that you can begin addressing specific needs later in the draft to fill out the roster.

5. The rumored trade that would send the Cowboys' two first-round picks to Miami for the right to pick Darren McFadden is dead, according to Dallas owner Jerry Jones (pictured with wife Gene and daughter Charlotte). Speaking to the Fort Worth Star Telegram, Jones said "I have no intent at all of moving into the top five. A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six. It's a real negative."

6. Read the last quote and understand two things: Jerry Jones can be saying this as a way to lower the price of getting into the top of the first round. So take it with a proverbial grain of salt. But also understand the rising cost of drafting a player so high -- at least $30 million guaranteed for the first pick -- is becoming something of a negative considering that player has never played in an NFL game. It is the reason there have been no trades involving the top five selections in years.

Anyway, I'm off to the Owners' meetings now. I'll keep you updated if stuff happens so check back here throughout the day.

I don't understand why they are so desperate to get out of #1. It doesn't make sense to me it seems to just be a lot of cliche illogical "momentum" of opinion.

I mean you are going to get an elite player this year with Chris Long at #1. Why would you trade down? Miami isn't going to fill every need and I don't think trading down makes their team that much better unless they make off like 2800 TVC points and 2 future 1st round picks...and that isn't happening so fawgetaboutit.

Because a team this bad needs to stockpile picks in order to get younger. 

Plus, what if, on the off chance, Chris Long turns out to be a bust??  You're then stuck with him due to that $30 million in guaranteed money, which then cripples your salary cap and sets you back another 3-4 years. 

This is why the NFL needs to limit rookie salaries.  Big contracts like this should go to stars that have proven themselves.   As for the injury factor, rookie contracts should also include an insurance policy, paid for by the team for the length of the contract, that will pay the player seven figure money if he sustains a career threatening injury. 

I want to know where Matt gets his info? ...In most of the articles (where Jerry Jones publicly stated he wasn't going to trade up to get Mcfadden) He mentioned that All the Top 5 teams want out of those picks....
A team can get crippled, and I mean seriously crippled, from a financial standpoint by being up there in the top five or six,” Jones said. “It's a real negative.

“Nobody wants in there, and the teams in there, they want out. This is a very tough draft anyway when it comes to evaluating the talent, and then trying to match up that with the millions it takes to operate at the top of the draft


Just so you can reference it...the story was republished all over the net....
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/football/nfl/cowboys/stories/MYSA032908.WEB.Cowboysbrief.en.db9c56f.html (http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/football/nfl/cowboys/stories/MYSA032908.WEB.Cowboysbrief.en.db9c56f.html)

The Dolphins don't need Elite Players..We need lot's of Good Players....(Before the Board crash) The majority of this board wanted us to trade the pick,and stockpile picks....Unfortuantely,We're stuck at the number one pick....
Fuck the Chart.....

Why do I want to pay a guy Franchise QB money,to a defensive lineman..(Most people think 3 - 4 D lineman will go in the top 5)

A couple of thoughts, B...

First, assuming that everything that comes out of Jerry Jones' mouth is gospel for the other owners in the league probably isn't a good idea, and misinformation before the draft is as common a practice among NFL owners and GMs as there is out there. 

Second...we need both. We need elite playmakers and we need solid football players to develop into serviceable starters.

Third...I agree, fuck the chart. Look at the players you could reasonably hope to net at the picks you'd receive and calculate your value by what you feel the value to your team will be, not because a certain draft slot is supposedly worth X amount of points.

I do think that Miami should trade down as well, but only if we could get a significant amount of talent in return. I don't believe that will happen, because of the perception that there isn't a clear cut #1 in that top group of players. If Miami makes any draft day deals, I fully expect them to be in the middle rounds...and wouldn't be surprised if a deal or two is made to trade down a little in the mid-late rounds to add to the number of draft picks Miami has for "next" season.

Well My point it's no secret Any of the top five picks are are wanting to Move out of the top five....It's fairly well known around the league...No one really wants this top pick....

Jerry Jones is AL Davis..minus the jogging suit....

If the leadership has their heart set on a specific player then pick him.  If they're torn between a couple of players then why not let the clock run out?  As soon as only one player they covet is left then run the card up.  Would that change contractual expectations at all?

If you are going to say a player can be a bust then I'd like to know why you think it is possible Chris Long will bust.

Is Miami going to get that much younger if they were to trade down? Really? Are they not going to get younger in this draft at all?

I mean geez they have 3 of the top 58 draft picks. Doesn't get much better than that (Atlanta).

Okay fuck the chart good call guys.

Back in 1997 Bill Parcells traded down from #1 and passed on the greatest legit LT prospect ever in Orlando Pace ... the Rams gave up just 3rd and 4th round draft picks and Parcells got ripped off by 1000 TVC points. It was the worst trade in NFL Draft history in my opinion.

He traded back again from 6 to 8 with the Seahawks and passed up on another outstanding LT prospect in Walter Jones.

He ended up with James Farrior and a bunch of scrubs.

You say fuck the chart, but every NFL GM uses it as a guide. I look at the draft like business decisions. You don't want to trade down and get bad value.

Secondly, lol "We are stuck at No. 1."

Since when is having the #1 pick a bad thing? What world are we living in where you'd rather pick 15th than 1st?

  If I had to guess, it would probably be easier to pay Chris Long than it would be for example, Matt Ryan.  Quarterbacks taken within the top ten are always going to demand gargantuan amounts of money than other position players.  I believe that the Dolphins have their heart set on Chris Long.  Do I know that for certain?  Absolutely not.  However, if you look at Parcells draft history, his relationship with Al Groh, the fact that Chris played in a 3-4 defense at Virginia, great bloodlines, outstanding character, and unquestioned work ethic.  Chris Long just makes a lot of sense.

  

Let's see 2005,2002,perhaps 2001,or 2000....Do I need to go back farther? When there 5 guys sitting on top of the draft,most have some sort of question about...and aboatload of money at stake....

Let's refresh your memory
2005
1 Alex Smith  QB Utah San Francisco 49ers 
2 Ronnie Brown  RB Auburn Miami Dolphins 
3 Braylon Edwards  WR Michigan Cleveland Browns 
4 Cedric Benson  RB Texas Chicago Bears 
5 Cadillac Williams  RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
6 Pacman Jones  CB West Virginia Tennessee Titans 
7 Troy Williamson  WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings 
8 Antrel Rolle  DB Miami (Fla.) Arizona Cardinals 
9 Carlos Rogers  DB Auburn Washington Redskins 
10 Mike Williams  Wr Detroit Lions

2002
1 David Carr  QB Fresno State Houston Texans 
2 Julius Peppers  DE North Carolina Carolina Panthers 
3 Joey Harrington  QB Oregon Detroit Lions 
4 Mike Williams  T Texas Buffalo Bills 
5 Quentin Jammer  DB Texas San Diego Chargers 
6 Ryan Sims  DT North Carolina Kansas City Chiefs 
7 Bryant McKinnie  T Miami (Fla.) Minnesota Vikings 
8 Roy Williams  FS Oklahoma Dallas Cowboys 
9 John Henderson  DT Tennessee Jacksonville Jaguars 
10 Levi Jones  T  Cincinnati Bengals

2001
1 Michael Vick  QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons 
2 Leonard Davis  G Texas Arizona Cardinals 
3 Gerard Warren  DT Florida Cleveland Browns 
4 Justin Smith  DE Missouri Cincinnati Bengals 
5 LaDainian Tomlinson  RB Texas Christian San Diego Chargers 
6 Richard Seymour  DT Georgia New England Patriots 
7 Andre Carter  DE California San Francisco 49ers 
8 David Terrell  WR Michigan Chicago Bears 
9 Koren Robinson  WR North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks 
10 Jamal Reynolds  DE Florida State Green Bay Packers 

2000
1 Courtney Brown  DE Penn State Cleveland Browns 
2 LaVar Arrington  OLB Penn State Washington Redskins 
3 Chris Samuels  T Alabama Washington Redskins 
4 Peter Warrick  WR Florida State Cincinnati Bengals 
5 Jamal Lewis  RB Tennessee Baltimore Ravens 
6 Corey Simon  DT Florida State Philadelphia Eagles 
7 Thomas Jones  RB Virginia Arizona Cardinals 
8 Plaxico Burress  WR Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers 
9 Brian Urlacher  MLB New Mexico Chicago Bears 
10 Travis Taylor  WR Florida Baltimore Ravens 

So how much tape did you watch Lil B of Chris Long? Just curious since you seem to think he has a great chance of busting like David Carr and Courtney Brown.

Plus those huge busts are going down and down at the top of the draft because scouts and GMs are starting to learn from their mistakes.

Just because you pick #1 doesn't mean it has a good chance of busting simply because of the past ... that's a poor argument.

You think Long is going to bust please submit a logical argument as to why...and give me analysis of Chris Long because Chris Long has nothing to do with Carr, Brown, or Vick.

I didn't say Chris Long was going to be a bust.  But anything is possible.  And if on the off chance, Chris Long (or whoever we draft #1) DOES turn out to be a bust, we're stuck with him because of the big contract that's gonna come with him.

The funny thing is, looking completely in hindsight, is there any other player in the top 10 we should have taken instead of Brown?  That entire group is pretty underwhelming.

Tommy, why do you think Chris Long could bust?

I just think if you are going to say something like that, why not just tell me why you think that?

  I have watched Chris Long and Virginia alot the last couple of years.  This kid is going to be an outstanding All-Pro NFL football player.  I have no problem with Miami selecting him with the first overall pick.  I said in December, that Miami should use the first pick to grab Chris Long.  No way is C. Long going to be a bust.  Injury is the only thing that will slow down Chris Long. 

Sorry I don't sit around and waste time..Watching college ball...and I've Never said he was going to be a bust....Of course I've never claimed to be an expert.....

Let me ask you as this "Draft expert" How many NFL scouting combines have you attended? Do you know any Scouts with the NFL teams? Do you have any of the NFL Gm's on speed dial? How many NFL players do you know? When you watch tape,Do you get the coaches tape? or are you just re watching your games TIVO?

and Most importantly...How many Miami Dolphins games have you watched this past season?

Let's see....You keep dropping these B.S. Opinions,and that's great that you think Chris long is going to be the pick...That's fine...I understand you sport a Chubby for Chris Long,but you are just one person.That last time I checked has no affiliation with any NFL Team,scouts,Nothing other than Posting Mock drafts...(I had no clue who you were,or the Web site that you post on till Stroke brought it Up) Yet there are alot of people that get paid lots of money,to do the same thing ..and don't agree with you...They happen to write for alot of websites Most people, know....What's amazing is,a lot of those people,they know people with the teams,they know some of the scouts,they have inside information,they attend the scouting combine. Some of them don't tend to agree with you...Some think Matt Ryan,might be the ST overall selection....(hell even the Other mock draft guy on you site had Matt Ryan going #1) (as of last Saturday night)

See Mel Kyper,Mike Mayock,any of these other Draft guru's If they're wrong..Ehh so what...Nobody cares they start thinking about next year....Nobody holds them accountable....(atleast fans don't, no one remembers they had this guy going here,and this guy going there)

Maybe you heard Bill Parcells is making the decisions in Miami,and it's his call to make on who we bring in.Now For many years Alot of people in this League have paid him quite handsomely for his decisions...His decisions,Cost millions and millions of dollars....(They aren't just names posted on a website) When you listen to most people talk about Bill Parcells,Even people that have worked with him,and know him pretty well...They all say you never know what he's going to do,What he thinks...He's unpredictable.Do we need to ask Tampa Bay,and Atlanta?
Now as a Dolphins Fan,Bill Parcels Has his hand on my wallet....I mean as a fan of this team I buy Memorabilia,NFL Sunday ticket, So I have something invested in who he decides should play for this team.....

This is your Flippant answer to Fuck the chart? a B.S. opinion?

Let's see Last time I checked James Farrior is still playing...yeah,He's with the Steelers....How millions of dollars difference was the contract of the Number 1 overall,and the 8th over all pick....That was the only year that a O-lineman was the first over all pick....Yeah, they're both great tackles...Holding out,missing training camps because they want more money.... Yeah hindsight is 20/20 11 years after the fact,it's pretty easy to sit back some nobody criticizing a pick he made 11 years ago..as the Worse decision ever,by some piss ant nobody?...Wow it ranks right up there with Brock/Brolio  ::) His 7th round pick that year is now a Dolphin....


WOW they've must have made some amazing Breakthrough in scouting the past 2 years,that they've kept Secret to the Public.... (it's too early to judge 2006,2007 draft classes)
I mean geez..I post directly from NFL.com...The top 10 picks of 4 years....out of 8,that most of the Top ten players...Could be considered (or aleast argued that they weren't worth that high of a pick) Busts...Only a couple of people could even be close to being considered "Great" or "Elite" players that you say we have to have a top 10 pick to get....
Let's take a look shall we?
2005...Pre Great Scouting break through of the "Never bust" system...
1 Alex Smith  QB Utah San Francisco 49ers  - less than 3 years later,and may be dethroned by Shaun Hill? who?
2 Ronnie Brown  RB Auburn Miami Dolphins  -Wow Just when he started to look worthy Knee injury...Never been in the top 10 rushers..1 - 1,000 yard season
3 Braylon Edwards  WR Michigan Cleveland Browns  (the cream of this crop) I'd consider him to be an elite player
4 Cedric Benson  RB Texas Chicago Bears  Wow, It took 2 years to be a starter ,and stunk it up....never cracked 100 yards
5 Cadillac Williams  RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Did the wheels fall off? Great rookie year..but since...Nothing injured..
6 Pacman Jones  CB West Virginia Tennessee Titans  ---Do I really need to justify this? as a player,good,but suspended for a year already.
7 Troy Williamson  WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings  Yeah a real stud  ::) ,now plays for the Jags.....
8 Antrel Rolle  DB Miami (Fla.) Arizona Cardinals  Already being moved to safety,that's something you do when your old...
9 Carlos Rogers  DB Auburn Washington Redskins  OMG 4 career picks...Far from elite..injured...
10 Mike Williams  Wr Detroit Lions is he even still playing?

See I don't know shit about who's better,but my theory is this...When alot of people think there are 3 guy's (or more in this years case) that might be worth top 5 picks,and they all play the same postion...QB,RB,D-Line...there is generally only 1 guy that is really good,1 average,and a major bust....OR like in 2005 None of them were really all that great to begin with, but they were the Best of that group for one reason or another.....

By your own account on the Radio show the other night you stated,(your opening statement) No one is talking defense...WTF? Most Draft gurus are all talking about C.Long,V.Gholsten,S.Ellis,G.Dorsey...M.Ryan,J.Long,D.Mcfadden..are the only offensive guy's they are even giving any mention,and there is very little "Buzz" about them....They're all talking about D-lineman,and defense....

NEH,how we forget,there was a split between who was better..Ryan Leaf,and Peyton Manning....

Matt Mcguire...With No credentials as far as I know of,claim these guy's are going to be good,great Elite players...And THEY'VE HAVEN'T NEVER TAKEN  A SINGLE SNAP IN THE NFL! So You're opinion is no better than anyone of us on this message board.....

I've never stated who I want...Because as Long as it's not Matt Ryan..it's an immediate help with the team....

OK, if you were smart enough to read between the lines, you would know that I was using Chris Long as an example.  Here's ANOTHER example: 

Let's say if Ronnie Brown ended up being a bust (Which he is not), we would be stuck with that large contract of his.  I believe he got $19 million in guaranteed money. 

I don't have time to read that mongoloid email until my lunch break, but yes Todd McShay knows  A LOT of people and so do Charles Davis.

Are they "experts" absolutley not.

Why?

Because they just blab off what everyone else is saying, they are inaccurate in what they project, and they don't have much talent as an evaluator.

So I dont think who you know or your status is what makes you an expert because imo being an expert is about knowing more than everyone else an being accurate in your projections.

If you actually listened to what I said I did say no one is "paying their respects to Dorsey and Ellis" and I implied this as elite talents.

I mean I've heard a lot of people say this DT class is weak and if anyone thinks this they have NO idea what they are talking about.

I mean if you disagree with me so much, and that is fine, then call TDMMC and ask a question.

When I talk about whether a prospect can be elite or not I am evaluting their upside of their talent.