The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

How many think 10 wins is possible now. I called this revisited because i made a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone thought it was possible the team could win 10 games, i only got maine to say the team can win 10 games,  so any more takers,

Definately in my dreams, and hopefully in reality.
Might be a bit of a stretch, but who knows?

I really think this team will surprise a lot of people, but I still think 10 is a stretch.  I don't think 8 is unreasonable.

Let's see ... 3 preseason games against...nope, sorry, I'm not a believer yet.

You can definately see the the "Parcells factor" at work.The 'Phins look alot more physical than in years past.Maybe not this year but I can see some good things happening in the near future.Old school baby.

QFT.

3 wins, maximum.

2 wins in pre-season and "$0.02 Dollars" (inside joke) gets you a cup of coffee at the local bagel store. I just knew a thread like this would pop up here tonight. Unbelievable. What's next - a Super Bowl prediction?

I did hear one on the radio tonight.  ;D It was tongue and cheek though.

Still waiting on your "How the Dolphins will go 0-16 in 2008" thread. 

I dont know why people don't think we cant compete

Sure our offense is revamped and we have a learning qb...

But our defense is solid... and we have a great running game

We lost 6 games last year by 3 points or less... Its not like teams were blowing us out left and right.

I think we can turn those 3 point losses into victories
Plus having to play the Nfc west instead of the East for games will make our schedule alot easier

The East not only had the super bowl victor but 3/4 teams made the playoffs last year.

So yeah Go Dolphins

Possible yes.  But highly improbable. 

I still don't see us winning more than 6.

Wow, I'm speechless.   While anything is possible, to suggest 10 wins seems incredibly optimistic after a 1 win season and based on 2 preseason wins.

I believe the Dolphins will be much more competitive this year, but this team is short on talent and depth.  I'll give the coaching staff a lot of credit for getting the most out of what they have, but the disasterous personnel decisions made over the past 7 years will not be cleaned up that quickly.  The extreme rebuilding process that is taking place in Miami has the team looking more like an expansion team than an established franchise.   It will take time for the players to learn the schemes and learn to play together. 

I'm not trying to be a downer.  Truth is, I'm really pleased with what I'm seeing; but I want to set some realistic expectations and goals for this team.  I don't think 10 wins is realistic or fair. 

There will be an "official" prediction thread after the final preseason game and everyone will have a chance to voice their opinion.   I plan to ask everyone to list the 2008 schedule and break out the wins/losses.  It should be very interesting.

I have a $100 bet with my dad on who will have the better record: SF or MIA.

I still feel confident that I will win it.

Word to you both QFT...

Let's remember, during the regular season,teams actually look at film on you each week and Build a game plan to play you in the Regular season..Something that doesn't happen in Preseason...How many Preseason games have the Colts won in Preseason the past 4 years? (the stat I heard the other day was 1) Yet year in and year out they are generally 5-0 + at the begining of the year....

While I think We'll play better this year...Sorry Ten wins..possibily...Extremely unlikely....I'll up my win total to 6...

People seem to only look at one thing from last year:  The record.  This team (in 2008) has more talent than last season and is better coached.  Last season's team lost 8 games by 3 points or less.  As bad as Miami was last year they could have been 8-8 or even 9-7.

And yet 10 wins is "such a stretch?"  People need to look beyond last year's win / loss.  Try looking at how the team lost, when, the players that were on that roster and the staff coaching them.

This team wins at least 8 games this season and could easily go 10-6 with a couple bounces that we didn't get last year we do this.

Maine do you really want to get into the semantics of Why? the other teams in the league got better,and tried to fill thier weakness' ..That was last year,you have this years injuries,new coaches,new philosophies...

Most teams that turn over the majority of their roster,don't have good seasons...3 games in the preseason,doesn't give a reason to think that trend is going to change....

The optimists love to bring up the number of close games to support this, but most ignore the flip side of the coin. Based on the final "real" result last season, there seems to be three possibilities:

1) Miami's 1-15 record was an accurate barometer of the team's talent and preparation levels.
2) A few more breaks go Miami's way and they go 3-13, 4-12...max.
3) A few breaks that Miami DID get (paging Mr Camarillo, and a few others),  go the other way, and Miami goes 0-16 with only a couple of games not being decisive losses.

Personally, I gravitate toward the low end of #2...Miami was probably a 3-12 caliber team last season, but caught a few crappy breaks/were mismanaged in close games and came in at 1-15 instead.

Ten wins in 2008?  IMO, it's a sweet dream, but an unrealistic projection.

If the title had read "6 win possibility thread revisited" I'd have said, "sure, maybe 7 or 8 is possible", but 10?  I din't think so, even with our "favorable" schedule.

Last year's team was decimated by injury.  We were starting third stringers in mid-season and hanging in games against quality teams.

Now the team is healthy, no big injuries (knock on wood) and we shed a lot of dead weight.  The team is younger, fresher, and out to prove something.  I think had last year's team been healthy (we started losing starters to IR as early as week 1), we would have won 6-8 games MINIMUM last season.  I don't think its a stretch to say we've improved to 8-10 wins.

Execution and injury will be the keys.  I really think this team is gonna surprise some people.

You could easily argue that we lost our 3 best players. Maybe not to injury, but we lost them none-the-less.

they're not our three best players anymore.

I didn't just look at last years record to question 10 wins.  I was pointing out that people were predicting 10 wins based on 2 preseason games.  I agree the team is better coached and has better talent; but is it enough for a 10X improvement?  5 wins would still be a 5X improvement which I would consider a huge turn around.

Ignoring our 1 - 15 record from 2007, here are some reasons I think 10 is overly optimistic, and an unfair expectation for this team.

So much change.   Most of my apprehension to jump on the 10 win bandwagon is based on the complete overhaul this team has gone through.  We have new coaches and new schemes.  Over 50% of the roster has changed, including our QB.  Many of the new players have promise, but we have a lot of inexperience.  I think the penalties are an indication of this.

Lack of depth.  There is a serious lack of depth at all positions except for RB.  You know there are going to be injuries, so I expect this is going to have an impact later in the season.

Execution.  The 2 wins are nice, but the Miami offense has scored a total of 3 TDs in 3 games.  The 3rd down conversion rate is a problem.   The penalties are killing drives and big plays.   

QB position - I'm impressed with what Chad P has been able to do here; but his performance in games that count over the past few years has been average at best.  Last year Pennington played in 9 games.  The Jets lost 8 of them.  The only win?  Miami.  In 8 years, Pennington has played 16 games only once.  If Pennington goes down, what happens?  I like Henne, but he's not ready to lead an NFL team week in and week out. 

Inexperience on the offensive line - these guys have looked pretty good, but I'm not sure they have been tested.  3 of the 5 are new to the Dolphins, including 2 rookies.  They haven't played together and I expect them to have some problems.

WR's and TE - some bright spots, but a lot of inexperience.   I don't think other teams are going to be scared of these guys.  We all hope Ginn will step up this year, but I need to see it to believe it.  The rest of the guys?  I'm not impressed. 

RBs - this should be our strength, and if R and R stay healthy, we will win some games.  I'm concerned that Brown seems perpetually injured, and as much as I love Ricky.......he's 1 toke away from "another" lifetime ban.  Still, I'm happy with what we have. 

I have more, but I hope this is enough to clarify why I'm not buying into the hype right now.  If I'm wrong, and I hope I am, I'll be thrilled.

I still think that 6 wins is a realistic goal.  ...and who knows...we could get really hot or cold and swing a couple of games in either direction.  8-8 would be an incredible season.  But, 4 wins is very possible as well.

I don't see 10 wins as even a remote possibility.

But, I remember Frimp picking some insane record prediction one year, and it came true.  I'll try to gravedig.

We could have won 6-8 games last year easily if not for injuries and better coaching/time management.  We got hit with the perfect storm from every direction and were lucky to actually win the 1 game that we did. That said .500 (8-8) is not out of the question with this line up.

You guys killed me, thinking I was serious about it. I did it to counteract all the negative stuff.  ;D

Trivia question:


(no looking it up in a book or internet site)

1)  What team when 1-15 in 1996 and 9-7 the following year? 

2) who was their head coach?

1.  The New York Jets

2.  Rich Kotite was the head coach when they went 1-15.  The following year, Bill Parcells was the head coach.

^^^ correct

I posted this earlier this week...plus lets look at our schedule...

jets-winable...cardinals...winable....NE...I say winable but I could see an argument for not...Chargers...probably not....Texans...winable...Rav ens...winable...Bills...winab le....Denver...winable...Seat tle...Probably not....Oak...winable....Rams. ..winable....49ers...winable. ..Chiefs...better win that one...so in my humble opinion ten wins is not unreasonable.

NE is winable, in the sense that any game is technically winable.  But you think a 1 win team (in OT) can beat a team with no losses in the regular season?  ...and the most dominant overall season in the history of the NFL?  It's madness.

Of course it could happen....but if ever there was a guaranteed loss...NE is that loss.

Here's Dave's formula. 


.75   N.Y. Jets   
.75   at Arizona Cardinals   
0   at New England Patriots   
0   Bye   
.25   San Diego Chargers   
.5   at Houston Texans   
.75   Baltimore Ravens   
.5   Buffalo Bills   
.5   at Denver Broncos   
.25   Seattle Seahawks   
.75   Oakland Raiders   
.25   New England Patriots   
.5   at St. Louis Rams   
.25   at Buffalo Bills (Toronto)
.75   San Francisco 49ers   
.75   at Kansas City Chiefs   
.5   at New York Jets   

8 Wins

Curious, how do you computer a 0 chance of winning at NE and .75% chance of beating the Jets?

Yeah well we hate the Jets the most.

Hey Tenshot13,
Lenscrafters called and has found the problem with your rose colored glasses.   

(http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/temp/jim/roseglasses.jpg)

No argument there.  >:D

Means Jack didly...
1.) Bill Parcells isn't the Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins...

2.) They may have changed starting Qb's in between 1996,and 1997....Neil O'Donnell was on the roster the year before...They already had guy's like Keyshwan Johnson,Wayne Chrebet,Kyle Brady,Adrian Murrell in 1996..They weren't brought in 1997...The defense already had guy's like Hugh Douglas,Marvin Jones,Mo lewis,Arron Glenn...


There was Talent on the roster...The Dolphins Roster a little Thin on the Talent already here...

lol

ok ok I know I don't sound very logical but come on...everyone is so damn negative or should I say critical...I'm just trying to call that Cinderella moment when we win the superbowl this year  ;)


New England's secondary got raped this offseason...and losing Stallworth is going to affect that team more than people think...he might not have done much last season, but teams still had to worry about him being a deep threat...without him and an aging defense they WILL NOT win the division this year...NE is STILL crying about their Superbowl loss (boo hoo we aren't going to the pro bowl...boo hoo we aren't going to the ESPYs) and I think they will have a Superbowl hangover like most teams who lose the superbowl.

Sometimes you have to be illogical about the NFL...that way when things like NYG beating NE in the Superbowl or New Orleans having a comback Cinderella season a couple years back don't seem so shocking...you heard it hear first people and trust me if I'm wrong it won't be the first time I've eaten my words!   :P

So who is the troll and who is the fin fan?

I'm glad you laughed about the rose colored glasses.  Actually, I love the optimism.  If one of us has to eat our words at the end of the season, I hope it's me.

It's called realism,and fanning the idocracy (IMO) of a ten win season is stupid...We've not seen 10 wins with this franchise since 2003....the last year under Wanny,and every year people watch a couple of preseason games,and think we're going to be much better than we are....]

Comparing the 1996-97 Jets to the 2007-08 Dolphins is apples to oranges...

(edited to fix typo,and make it more readable)

Ya because the Jets and their fans are a bunch of douches while the Phins are the best team in the history of the NFL! 

Ya that's it tottally ::) ::) ::) ::)

Trivia question:  What team gave New England their most recent regular season defeat?  And what was the final score?

Miami Dolphins, 21-0 December of 2006....So what's this have to do with the price of oil in New zealand...Nothing it's 2008...

I think 7 wins is our ceiling. I have hated Chad Pennington for years, but he is deadly accurate within 15 yards and he is an actual NFL QB, something we haven't had for years. So, 7 wins doesn't seem that ridiculous considering we should've won about 4 last year if not for our awful record during games decided by 3 points or less.

I would put my money on 5, but with some lucky bounces here and there we can have 7.

Steps of .25 make it a bit tough, but on the other hand, this is all hand-waving mumbo jumbo anyway.

My take (and, no, I don't see a single game where I would call us favorites):

.5   N.Y. Jets   
.5   at Arizona Cardinals   
0   at New England Patriots   
0   Bye   
0   San Diego Chargers   
.25   at Houston Texans   
.5   Baltimore Ravens   
.5   Buffalo Bills   
.25   at Denver Broncos   
.25   Seattle Seahawks   
.5   Oakland Raiders   
0   New England Patriots   
.25   at St. Louis Rams   
.25   at Buffalo Bills (Toronto)
.5   San Francisco 49ers   
.5   at Kansas City Chiefs   
.25   at New York Jets   

5 Wins.

As I've said before, my official guess is at the optimistic end of what I think is likely... 6 wins.

You got my trivia question correct. 

But yours has stumped me.  I give up.  What is the correlation between the NFL and South Pacific oil pricing?