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TDMMC Forums => Off-Topic Board => Topic started by: run_to_win on March 08, 2009, 07:35:14 pm



Title: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: run_to_win on March 08, 2009, 07:35:14 pm
Sorry to start yet another thread on this but the most recent global warming thread was locked. 

Quote
Where's global warming?
By Jeff Jacoby, Globe Columnist | March 8, 2009

SUPPOSE the climate landscape in recent weeks looked something like this:

Half the country was experiencing its mildest winter in years, with no sign of snow in many Northern states. Most of the Great Lakes were ice-free. Not a single Canadian province had had a white Christmas. There was a new study discussing a mysterious surge in global temperatures - a warming trend more intense than computer models had predicted. Other scientists admitted that, because of a bug in satellite sensors, they had been vastly overestimating the extent of Arctic sea ice.

If all that were happening on the climate-change front, do you think you'd be hearing about it on the news? Seeing it on Page 1 of your daily paper? Would politicians be exclaiming that global warming was even more of a crisis than they'd thought? Would environmentalists be skewering global-warming "deniers" for clinging to their skepticism despite the growing case against it?

No doubt.

But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.

The United States has shivered through an unusually severe winter, with snow falling in such unlikely destinations as New Orleans, Las Vegas, Alabama, and Georgia. On Dec. 25, every Canadian province woke up to a white Christmas, something that hadn't happened in 37 years. Earlier this year, Europe was gripped by such a killing cold wave that trains were shut down in the French Riviera and chimpanzees in the Rome Zoo had to be plied with hot tea. Last week, satellite data showed three of the Great Lakes - Erie, Superior, and Huron - almost completely frozen over. In Washington, D.C., what was supposed to be a massive rally against global warming was upstaged by the heaviest snowfall of the season, which paralyzed the capital.

Meanwhile, the National Snow and Ice Data Center has acknowledged that due to a satellite sensor malfunction, it had been underestimating the extent of Arctic sea ice by 193,000 square miles - an area the size of Spain. In a new study, University of Wisconsin researchers Kyle Swanson and Anastasios Tsonis conclude that global warming could be going into a decades-long remission. The current global cooling "is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Swanson told Discovery News. Yes, global cooling: 2008 was the coolest year of the past decade - global temperatures have not exceeded the record high measured in 1998, notwithstanding the carbon-dioxide that human beings continue to pump into the atmosphere.

None of this proves conclusively that a period of planetary cooling is irrevocably underway, or that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are not the main driver of global temperatures, or that concerns about a hotter world are overblown. Individual weather episodes, it always bears repeating, are not the same as broad climate trends.

But considering how much attention would have been lavished on a comparable run of hot weather or on a warming trend that was plainly accelerating, shouldn't the recent cold phenomena and the absence of any global warming during the past 10 years be getting a little more notice? Isn't it possible that the most apocalyptic voices of global-warming alarmism might not be the only ones worth listening to?

There is no shame in conceding that science still has a long way to go before it fully understands the immense complexity of the Earth's ever-changing climate(s). It would be shameful not to concede it. The climate models on which so much global-warming alarmism rests "do not begin to describe the real world that we live in," says Freeman Dyson, the eminent physicist and futurist. "The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand."

But for many people, the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change. When Al Gore insisted yet again at a conference last Thursday that there can be no debate about global warming, he was speaking not with the authority of a man of science, but with the closed-minded dogmatism of a religious zealot. Dogma and zealotry have their virtues, no doubt. But if we want to understand where global warming has gone, those aren't the tools we need.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/03/08/wheres_global_warming/

I still don't have a dog in this fight. 

Some recent data is not supporting the global warming theory.  Temperatures have not exceeded the records set in 1998.  2008 was the coolest year in the past decade. 

Can global warming experience a 10 year plateau or will we see a return of the "coming ice age" theories from the 1970s?


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: fyo on March 08, 2009, 08:13:08 pm
The next 10 years are, apparently, going to be cool as well, so you'll have a decade to keep repeating this stuff.

We're in a cooling cycle right now.

One other point: I find it slightly annoying that they don't quote a source for the "haven't seen warmer temperatures than 1998" claim. All the sources I've seen have 2004 as the warmest (although, to be fair, 1998 was a HUGE spike... 1999 and 2000 were quite cold and it wasn't until 2002 that the 1998 level was reached again).

One final point: I'm tired of all the news articles citing "unusually severe winter" and other such "folksy" stuff. We're talking about an increase in average global temperatures of about 2 FAHRENHEIT over the past 100 years! This isn't something you can observe by looking out your window - at least not initially. It's incredibly annoying when the media try to dumb things down by making these completely irrelevant "connections" (and they do it both ways - cooler or warmer). It's just plain wrong and people are smart enough to realize it's wrong and that realization causes them to believe that the whole global warming claim is wrong. Right or wrong, the two things are NOT connected.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: jtex316 on March 08, 2009, 09:40:28 pm
Cooling my ass - it was hot as shit outside today.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: YoFuggedaboutit on March 08, 2009, 09:44:57 pm
Cooling my ass - it was hot as shit outside today.

It dropped into the 20's this past winter here in Orlando, Jtex... not once but SEVERAL TIMES. 

I've never seen it get this cool here before... or when I lived in GA for that matter.  Weather that cold can seriously damage the citrus crop that is so vital to the state's revenue


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Frimp on March 08, 2009, 09:46:43 pm
Hot in South Florida? OMG!!!


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 08, 2009, 10:10:25 pm
Yes, 2008 was the coolest year of the last decade.  It was also the ninth hottest year recorded since 1880.  Break out your parkas and kerosene heaters!

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

NASA must be in on this global warming scam, because their data says that the nine hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998.

P.S. The topic is false.  We had a 0.18 degree drop from 2007-2008; 1973-1974, 1981-1982, 1983-1984, 1991-1992, and 1998-1999 were all bigger drops.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Dphins4me on March 08, 2009, 10:15:15 pm
  The point that has yet to be proven IMO.  Is global warming man made or simply another cycle the earth has went through many times?


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 09, 2009, 01:44:49 am
Any person that denies that the earth is actually getting warmer is an outright nut; they belong in the same box as the people who think that the Grand Canyon was made in a couple thousand years.  Look at the chart I posted.

The only real debate is whether or not the warming is natural, or man-made.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: MaineDolFan on March 09, 2009, 09:17:34 am
All I want to know, as I fire up my snowblower for the 4th time in the past 5 days, is where are my palm trees?

Global warming my ass.  The world may be getting hotter but that seems to be skipping Maine.

I want some palm trees.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 09, 2009, 10:13:28 am
Any person that denies that the earth is actually getting warmer is an outright nut; they belong in the same box as the people who think that the Grand Canyon was made in a couple thousand years.  Look at the chart I posted.

The only real debate is whether or not the warming is natural, or man-made.

anyone who blindly trusts what information they're being fed about a potential trillion dollar industry is the actual nut i think

here's a bunch more "nut jobs" who happen to have PhDs all agreeing with "nutty" studies and facts and such

http://www.petitionproject.org/


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: bsmooth on March 09, 2009, 10:29:49 am
It is snowing in western wash right now.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 09, 2009, 10:50:39 am
you know i think in the larger sense of how the media and popular opinion works ..facts and studies and actual application of scientific principles is pretty meaningless .. i think in the end it boils down to this ..

if people feel like they're hotter than usual .. then they'll support a global warming theory .. no matter how wong it is .. and the politicians will ride the public sentiment and there you have flawed policies meant to pander to public opinion and TV shows or movies meant to pander to the public to get ratings and sell tickets. If people feel like it's getting cooler .. then there's not a damn thing the algores of the world can do to make people give a rats ass.

i think that's how we're gonna see it play out.



Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Phishfan on March 09, 2009, 11:12:51 am
anyone who blindly trusts what information they're being fed about a potential trillion dollar industry is the actual nut i think

here's a bunch more "nut jobs" who happen to have PhDs all agreeing with "nutty" studies and facts and such

http://www.petitionproject.org/
This has nothing to do with Dan's statement. These people do not refute the warming of the Earth according to what I see in the link. They refute the manmade aspect of it which he admits is up for debate.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 09, 2009, 11:42:50 am
This has nothing to do with Dan's statement. These people do not refute the warming of the Earth according to what I see in the link. They refute the manmade aspect of it which he admits is up for debate.

well in that case ..  .. oops dan

but the link is still valid information


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 09, 2009, 11:47:29 am
anyone who blindly trusts what information they're being fed about a potential trillion dollar industry is the actual nut i think
Which trillion dollar industry?  NASA?  Did you even read the link I provided?

I continue to be amazed that you play the potential trillion dollar green industry card, yet have no problem ignoring the already existing trillion dollar fossil fuel industry.

Quote
here's a bunch more "nut jobs" who happen to have PhDs all agreeing with "nutty" studies and facts and such

http://www.petitionproject.org/
As Dave said, your link says nothing as to whether or not the Earth is actually warming.  You made precisely the mistake that many others are making; you confused debate on the cause of the Earth's warming with debate on whether or not it is actually occurring.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 09, 2009, 12:13:01 pm
yep i saw that .. my bad ..

as far as ignoring the trillion dollar fossil fuel industry .. what bearing does that have on anything ? .. that isn't going anywhere .. that's why there's a potential for a trillion dollar green industry .. .. you'll use just as much coal or oil or gas .. you'll just also have to pay a "carbon tax"  .. that does nothing more than make other people wealthy


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 09, 2009, 02:03:28 pm
yep i saw that .. my bad ..

as far as ignoring the trillion dollar fossil fuel industry .. what bearing does that have on anything ?
You claim that the data is being distorted by those who potentially stand to profit from green energy in the future.
There is an equal-or-greater probability that the data is being distorted by those who currently profit from non-green energy sources.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: jtex316 on March 09, 2009, 02:31:22 pm
You claim that the data is being distorted by those who potentially stand to profit from green energy in the future.
There is an equal-or-greater probability that the data is being distorted by those who currently profit from non-green energy sources.

There is an equal-or-greater probability that you're full of it. Why did you have to go and ruin logic that had an equal or greater probability of being decent with an equal or greater probability nonsense like the words "equal or greater probability"?

Horribly disappointing.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: cyan on March 09, 2009, 02:44:46 pm
Yes, 2008 was the coolest year of the last decade.  It was also the ninth hottest year recorded since 1880

I don't want to get involved in the discussion, other than to point out this statement, which I'm guessing is just a typo, since the "fact" contained within it is impossible.

If 2008 was the coolest year out of the past 10, then the prior 9 years (1999-2007)would have all had to have been hotter than 2008. If that were the case, it is impossible for 2008 to be the 9th hottest since 1880. At the very most, it could have been 10th hottest.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Dave Gray on March 09, 2009, 02:45:15 pm
Is there conflicting data on the temperature of the Earth or something?  Why are we so skeptical about NASA's data all of a sudden?  Are we skeptical about all of the other things that NASA measures?


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Cathal on March 09, 2009, 02:55:28 pm
Is there conflicting data on the temperature of the Earth or something?  Why are we so skeptical about NASA's data all of a sudden?  Are we skeptical about all of the other things that NASA measures?

Well, they did have a rover/satellite (can't remember which) crash land on Mars because of using the wrong measurement system.  :P


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 09, 2009, 02:58:20 pm
the reason we're skeptical about nasa's data is because the guy in charge of doing the math at nasa who has been pushing the idea of global warming had pretty huge errors in his math pointed out last year .. and those errors were part of the basis on which projections and computer models were made ..

and as you well know by theory of crouching tiger / hidden dragon .. you can't always assume nasa employees are infallible in their grasp of reality


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Dave Gray on March 09, 2009, 03:01:55 pm
I'm not saying that the NASA data can't be wrong, and being skeptical of anything is good.   But it seems that all of a sudden this particular point of data is being called out as to adhere to some ideology.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 09, 2009, 06:11:12 pm
I don't want to get involved in the discussion, other than to point out this statement, which I'm guessing is just a typo, since the "fact" contained within it is impossible.

If 2008 was the coolest year out of the past 10, then the prior 9 years (1999-2007)would have all had to have been hotter than 2008.
While your statement is factually accurate, your beef should be with the original poster, not me; that was a direct quote from RTW's first post.

I took the word "decade" to apply to this decade (in contrast to, say, the '90s), which is obviously incomplete.  This point would have been more apparent had you not substituted "the coolest year out of the past 10" for "the coolest year of the last decade".

But yes, you are technically correct to point that out, in the same sense that the Yankees have technically won two World Series "this decade."


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 09, 2009, 06:52:49 pm
the reason we're skeptical about nasa's data is because the guy in charge of doing the math at nasa who has been pushing the idea of global warming had pretty huge errors in his math pointed out last year .. and those errors were part of the basis on which projections and computer models were made ..
So wait... I'm confused.

Fau, just to get this point clear: do you or do you not agree that the Earth is getting warmer?

If not, I'd like to see your evidence.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: run_to_win on March 09, 2009, 07:28:22 pm
While your statement is factually accurate, your beef should be with the original poster
The original poster did not write the article.  He merely posted it because he thought it was interesting and enjoys the hysterical answers from those who react as if their religion is under attack.


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: bsmooth on March 09, 2009, 11:07:42 pm
The original poster did not write the article.  He merely posted it because he thought it was interesting and enjoys the hysterical answers from those who react as if their religion is under attack.

So you posted with the intent to troll instead of trying to spark intellectual debate?


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 10, 2009, 10:10:05 am
So wait... I'm confused.

Fau, just to get this point clear: do you or do you not agree that the Earth is getting warmer?

If not, I'd like to see your evidence.

i think it was getting warmer .. and now it's going to get cooler ..  my point about nasa is that it is in general you should be skeptical ... not specifically about this data ..


Title: Re: We're in the most significant period of global cooling since 1950...
Post by: run_to_win on March 10, 2009, 12:57:29 pm
So you posted with the intent to troll instead of trying to spark intellectual debate?
The intellectual debate is interesting.  The hysterical answers from those who react as if their religion is being attacked are just a much-anticipated bonus.