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Discuss.

Henne...

I don't see how there could possibly be any discussion. Unless Henne has SERIOUSLY regressed since last year, the Dolphins NEED to puthim out there again and see what happens.

Henne.  No doubt.  Tepop will say Pat White, but I think with Penny's shoulder problem, he's far more useful on the sidelines.  Also, I think that Henne can use Marshall much better than Pennington.  I like Pennington plenty, and I hope he stays with the team for a long time, but Henne needs to develop if this team wants to have a chance. 

And if Henne gets hurt or struggles early, we have a GREAT backup QB that can win games. 

But, I think you gotta give Henne the chance to get in there because that down-field ball is going to need to be there this season.

...another choice for Henne.

Though I like Pennington, I think going back to him is a regression for the team.  We need to live and die by Henne learning.

Gotta be Henne...and why would anyone NOT want Henne out there? We finally have a real #1 WR weapon for him, and the young supporting WR cast is getting more experienced, so they should be improved as well. Get our young QB out there and let him develop with his targets.


I thought Tepop wanted us to trade to get Beck back in a Miami uniform?

Aside from one particular board member, I think you are going to have the same answer. Of all the positions that might be open, this one is the least likely to have any movement.

Hmm...not sure.  

Poll:  Who should start at left tackle?

Jake Long
Andrew Gardner

Gardner has nuclear upside...

It's Chad Henne for sure. NOW that he has a #1 WR and his O-Line is good enough to protect him, there are no excuses. Henne doesn't perform this season and it's all on him.

In before Tepop changes Henne's 100% voter approval.   ;D  Don't you worry about it Tepop, the other million people in the world who think Henne should be the starter are all full of it.  You and only you know the REAL truth.  LOL

It's Henne's job to lose.

Wow!!!! Is this the first time jtex and Dolphin fans have unanimously agreed?

Henne is BY FAR the team's best available option at QB. Chad Pennington can't throw past 15 yards and Pat White isn't an NFL QB. However, that doesn't mean that Henne doesn't suck. IF he can't perform in 2010, then he really does suck and the Dolphins need to draft whoever is the best QB available in next year's NFL draft. This is the year of "No Excuses" for (or from) Henne.

Pat White

Ha Ha just kidding, Henne.

As an aside, I'm really interested to see what role Hartline will play in the offense this year.  He showed some flashes of excellence last year.

I think the better question here is:
Who will NOT make the roster: Thigpen or White?

I will go with White.

I'm going White.  Practice squad unless he can return punts or kick-offs or something else, the QB experiment is over.  In fact I think you'll see a lot less of the wildcat this year as well, it's now Henne's team.  They'll run the wildcat from time to time just to make defenses prepare for it, but I doubt you'll see Henne on the sideline 4 or 5 plays at a time like they did at times last year.  You didn't pick up Brandon Marshall to run the wildcat.

Pretty sure he's ineligible, since he suited up for pretty much every game last season.

Thats funny.  Hennes 2009 on top vs. pennington 2008 on the bottom.  Who can't throw it past 15 yards?
 (http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f236/tepop/hennevspenny.jpg)

Of course, what would the team do when it is close and late without Henne, maybe win?

(http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f236/tepop/Henneblowsagain.jpg)

^^^^

Yeah, but that was 2008.

Pennington is washed up and banged up.  It's time to move forward with Henne.

Plus, I'd have to see how many of Penny's 2008 throws were the results of YAC yards. 

Of course that chart is grouped based on how far the ball traveled in the air genius.

I think you're guilty of cherry-picking data to fit your beliefs. (While I'm at it, please cite your source -- in this case ESPN player data, links at bottom).

If you actually WATCHED Miami play last year, you would have seen that our receivers SUCKED ASS and couldn't catch the ball -- regardless of who was throwing.

How did Pennington do before he got hurt last year? He only completed a single throw that traveled more than 20 yards in the air (out of 8 ) -- well, two, if you count the one he threw to the other team. Specifically, he was 1 of 4 for 21-30, 0 of 3 (with 1 INT) for 31-40 and 0 of 1 for 41+.

I will certainly stipulate that this is a rather small sample to draw any conclusions from, but it meshes very well with actual game observations.

Additionally, young quarterbacks (regardless of arm strength) are expected to throw a lot of short passes. They simply do not have the experience necessary to read a defense that far "ahead". This is one of those areas where young quarterbacks generally need to improve and this goes for Henne as well.

If we take your other cherry-picked data, the "By Close", Henne also comes out on top if we compare 2009 to 2009. Pennington had ratings of 46 and 40, respectively, in the two categories (compared to Henne's 49 and 66, respectively). Check the links below for full data.

Henne: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=11291

Pennington: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=2149

Interesting stat, but it doesn't take into consideration the fact that especially in his earlier games, the game plan probably kept Henne on a pretty short leash as far as his play options were concerned.  Also, game situations play a large role in the type of play called.  If you are playing behind all the time, that would lend itself to longer passes.  If you are constantly in 3rd and long situations, that would lend itself to longer passes as well.  So although this was an interesting stat, it does not take cause and effect into consideration.  If Dan Marino had a great running game and a shut 'em down defense supporting him, he wouldn't have thrown for nearly as many yards.  Doesn't mean he wouldn't have been capable.  And no, I'm not comparing Henne to Dan Marino.  I'm just saying that situation dictates play calling as much as ability does.

Tepop - You can't compare 2008 vs. 2009. Try again.

the 2008 team was 11-5 and won the division.  Not so much in 2009.  Come on, you should know better than that.

Not to mention that in 2008 they had one of the easiest schedules in the league whereas in 2009 they faced one of the toughest if not the toughest.

I thought Pennington was starting  on the PUP list recovering from shoulder surgery....(or atleast there was a good chance of it)  IT was the reason why we kept the extra QB.....

Will depend on White and Pennington.  If White is improved enough to warrant it or if Pennington is not healthy then yeah, that will probably happen.

Even if Pennington is slightly better than Henne, to what gain is there in starting him?

The guy has had three major injuries.  You can only duct tape him back together so many times.  Safe to assume that if you tried to use him as a starter, the backup is going to be playing sooner or later. 

Henne OTOH, should improve with experince, and if not at least play him long enough to conclude a 1st or 2nd round pick will be used for a QB in the 2011 draft.  Cause if Henne isn't your franchise QB, you need to draft one, cause Pennington, White or Thigpen ain't either. 

This man speaks the troofs right there.  Well said.

I think this rhetorical question sums up my feelings pretty well.  I think it's safe to assume that Pennington isn't world's better than Henne.  So, even if Pennington gives you a chance to win a single game more, I still think it's best to start Henne, for the future's sake.

Plus, Henne's upside, including his ability to throw the ball long (perhaps not complete passes, but at least get it there) makes it all the more enticing for your new talent, namely Brandon Marshall.

I'm really curious who else selected Pennington. Chad did wonders for our team, but his day has passed.

I'm firmly in the Henne camp, but I could see the argument made for Pennington for one reason, and one reason only.

If you thought:
That Pennington gave you the chance to win more games right now.  (Which is think is a reasonable thought.)
AND
If you thought that putting the team on the field with the chance to do best RIGHT NOW is the most important thing.  (Which is also pretty reasonable.)

I probably think that we can be a better team with Pennington at QB (at least I'm open to the argument, anyway.)  My big concern with that is that I think that Pennington can't take you all the way this year, or more importantly, ever.  Henne gives you the best shot.

The games Henne played in 2009 were not even close to the toughest.   Buffalo x2 (5-9), Jets x2 (9-5), New England x2 (9-5), Carolina (8-7), Jax (7-8), Pittsburgh (8-7), Houston (8-7), Tenn (7-8), NO (12-3), TB (3-12).  Unless you want to include the games Pennington played to toughen up the schedule.

Exactly.

Argument ends here.

Your blindness is baffling.

You know the Jets went to the AFC championship game, and had the NFL's best defense last season.  Right?
You know New Orleans WON THE SUPER BOWL, right?
You know the Patriots are, well, the Patriots, right?

Of the three measly games Pennington played, the Dolphins lost THEM ALL.

If you insist on correcting for opponent quality, why not use an unbiased, objective metric? Footballoutsiders.com has one, but I don't think you're going to like the results:

Henne: 7.9% DVOA (per play metric)
Pennington: -4.8% DVOA

Without adjusting for defense (plain VOA), the two were much closer, but Henne still edged out Pennington.

Henne threw more passes in the San Diego game than Pennington did and I wouldn't exactly call Atlanta a powerhouse last year.  That leaves Indy as the one tough opponent that Penny faced that Henne didn't.  And where are you getting those records from?  I'm pretty sure that all the teams played at least 16 games.  What's your reasoning for only including some of the games in their record?  I guess by your logic Indy was (2-0)?

It is pretty obvious he is not including the Dolphin games in the record.  Not an unusual way of expressing records when comparing strength of schedule not to include the team being analyzed. You will note the division rivals total to 14 and non division rivals total to 15. 

Still a flawed argument for playing band-aid man. 

Ah. Gotcha.  Brainfart there.

Edit:  Hold the phone.  The Jets wouldn't be 7-7 then would they?  Shouldn't that be 9-5?

Excuse me for being captain obvious here...

Pennington - Is only as good as his running game a defense are,you need the offense to be set up for Pennington.You're playing not to lose, with a lot of short timing routes,where Pennington is throwing to a spot, and the receiver runs to the spot....Those take lots of practice time with the receivers,and depends on the team running the ball well, and playaction,stringing lots of plays together....Playing not to lose the game,having to play a perfect game...It's the mantra of losing teams,trying to stay away from 4-12 seasons.Run the ball ,play good defense, QB plays just good enough to keep you in the game...Pennington most likely isn't going to cost you the game, but isn't going to win you one either...

Sorry So I don't see it as trying to win now, as much as I do not trying to go 4-12....

THAT is exactly the quaility you look for in a back up QB.  Not what you want in the starter. 

So for 2.5 games Pennington was a -4.8% DVOA.  In 2008, in his 16 game year (slightly larger sample size), he was +25.7% DVOA.  Which is better 7.9 or 25.7?

Tepop-

Three people have quoted my responses and offered agreement.  You have not addressed any of what I have raised....

1) Do you honestly believe the Pennington has a chance at starting all 16 games this season?  If not, who do you think ought take over the reigns when he lands on IR?

2) Who do you see as the long term solution at QB? 

a) Offer Dr. Rudy Wells six million dollars to keep Pennington playing?
b) Have Henne learn the position by watching Pennington?
c) Believe that magic fairy dust will convert White into a QB that can be used for more than the wildcat?
d) Believe Thigpen is much much better than his performance in KC would suggest?
e) Plan to draft a QB in 2011 draft? 
f) out bid Bill Polin and convince Peyton Manning to play for the Dolphins?
g) something else? 

3) If Pennington is not going to be a long term solution, would it make sense to have a player that will be (Henne,Thigpen, or White) gain experience? 

Wasn't the same team, though, as you well know. You keep insisting on comparing apples to oranges and repeating 2008 to 2009 comparisons is not going to make it any more palatable. The team just didn't play well in 2009. It didn't before Pennington got hurt, it didn't after. Simple as that.

There wasn't that much turnover for comparing qbs.  Pretty much same receiving core.  The team wasn't as good because the QB wasn't as good.

Dude, in 2008 they ran the wildcat like nobody's business.  This was a huge part of the offense.  In 2009, after the Bucs game, the wildcat was almost non-existant. 

You CAN NOT compare the two.

Pappy, I was gonna post about this the other night actually but was busy and didn't have a chance to, and you beat me to it.  I don't know if Tepop did it intentionally or not, but the Jets definitely went 9-7 last season (by the skin of their damn teeth,  >:( ), and, seeing as we swept the bastards, that would make them 9-5 in the 14 games that they didn't play against us.

As for Henne, I saw a stat on him in Athlon Sports Pro Football 2010 Preview that I found interesting and definitely puts a positive light on him, but I haven't posted it yet since I think fyo's stats posted did a pretty good job as a rebuttal to Tepop's posted stats, even if he does want to insist that the 2008 and 2009 seasons and squads are still comparable.  I may still post it later, though.

Even though I will agree that Henne is not yet a solid NFL starting QB, I don't know how you can't at least acknowledge or recognize that the guy has (positive) potential, especially considering that it was his 2ND NFL season last year and essentially his first one to see playing time besides a blowout game the 2nd game of his rookie season.  It was his first 13 games started in his career, and I don't think he did a bad job at all besides a few boneheaded mistakes...oh, yeah, that's right, it WAS his first season to start, right?  ;) Sorry, but after starting those 13 games last season, sitting on the bench ain't gonna help his development.

And that has what to do with a qbs dvoa?

It has to do EVERYTHING with the game plan and type of offense the team runs.  Short dink-and-dunk.  Ball control.  Power running. 

Come on, dude, I'm sure you know this.  Drop the "I hate Chad Henne" persona for a second and be objective.

Besides the fact that I already posted that Henne isn't as good at connecting on the long ball than Pennington, The dolphins averaged 4.4 ypc in 2009, and 4.2 in 2008.  Another genius argument.

There's no reasoning with you.  There's no way you are serious about this.  Chad Pennington himself would tell you that he can't throw the long ball.

And, not to nit-pick, but if you're going to call people "genius" get your facts straight.  The numbers you quoted are rushing yards per attempt.  ::)

Genius!

Tepop,

Did you watch any of the games or just check the box score?

In case you didn't watch the games and only read the box scores let me provide you with some background.

The 2008 Dolphin offense was effective for one reason and one reason alone.  And it was NOT Pennington.  It was the wildcat. 

Week three of 2008 an 0-2 team that the prior season was one overtime game away from tying the 76 Bucs upset a 2-0 team that was less than 5 mins away from going 19-0 the prior season. 

And how did they accomplish this unbelievable upset?  Was it by the outstanding play of the QB?  No.  It was because the Dolphins O.C. outcoached the HC of the New England Patriots despite a huge talent deficient that that the Dolphins had in players.  How amazing is this?  Well, let’s just say that the coach that was out coached is widely considered one of the most brilliant defensive minds of all time.  In fact his defensive game plan from the New York Giants' 20-19 upset of the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV is enshrined in Canton.

So guess what happened after that?  Folks took notice that a play called the wildcat that had confused one of the greatest defensive minds of all time.  So DCs and HC that played the Dolphins focused most of their time on game planning to stop the wildcat.  As there is only a finite amount of time that can be spent on game planning very little time was spend focusing on how to blitz the QB or stop the long pass.  Also defensive assignments were based on stopping the wildcat, safeties didn’t play as deep, not as many players rushed the passer as one need to watch for the wildcat etc. This resulted in Pennington having an easier time throwing the ball down field. 

By the beginning of the 2009 season, the wildcat was pretty well understood and game planning to contain it was pretty well understood.  DCs and HCs went back to focusing on blitzing the QB and shutting down the passing game.  This made it much harder for Dolphin QBs to pass in 2009 than it was for them in 2008.



.

Give him a break...QB rushing yardage is very important to Tepop.  ;)

Ronnie Brown should be the QB then. 

Right...  The wildcats 5 plays a game caused the dolphins to win 11 games.  The wildcat wasn't even the reason that the dolphins beat the pats the first time. Pennington was 17/20 for 226 yards.

^^ I'm gonna have to side with Tepop on this one point, Pennington did have a terrific year in 2008, the wildcat wasn't the only reason the Dolphins won, Penny had a lot to do with it.

My problem with Penny is that 2008 was quite possibly the best year of his career and much of his success came against average to weak defenses when the Dolphins weren't relying on Penny to win the game, just not make mistakes.  He was great at it, but it didn't look like he was going to repeat that kind of success in 2009 and I really see no reason to believe he could do it this year either.  Henne is the future, I'll take my chances with Henne.

TDs score by Pennington: 0.
Rush-yards-TDs 36-216-4
Passing by Brown 1/1 for 19 and a TD.

The wildcat, plus the amount of game planning involved in trying to stop it, was the reason for the Dolphin's success in 2008.   

LOL, The wildcat accounted for 108 yards that day.  62 of it was on one play when Miami was already winning 28-13.  3 of the wildcat scores, 2 yard td, 3yard td, 5 yard td.  First touchdown drive, miami drove 72 yards on conventional offense and used the wildcat for the last 2.  HOLY FUCK, GOOD THING THEY HAVE THE WILDCAT. Second touchdown drive, 79 yards, 0 wildcat plays.  Third touchdown drive, 79 yards, 2 wildcat plays, 8 yards.  WOW AGAIN. Next touchdown drive 79 yards, 1 wildcat play for 19 yards.

Ronnie Brown scored 5 TD's in that game, and you choose to pimp Pennington for a meager 226 yards.

Wow

Bad news for Pat White.  Chad Pennington appears to be healthy.  At least healthy enough not to put him on the PUP list.

Pat White was a no-show for practice today. :(

That's because Ronnie Brown is the driving force behind the Wildcat.  They tried it with Ricky Williams a few times and it didn't work as well. 

haven't been to the site in a while, and now just catching up seeing camp just started...

is this really a question? who should start at qb, really?

chad henne is the starting qb of this team for now and into the foreseeable future. you won't see a new starting qb for this franchise over the next 3 years at least, unless he gets hurt.

I'm with you, first time back for awhile, enjoying the great summer.

this shouldn't even be a poll question...Henne is the man!  I expect Pro-Bowl caliper numbers this yr (note, I said numbers,  not that he will be a Pro-Bowler).

with the weapons he has, the playermakers along side him, & his 2nd full year, he should have great season.

he played big-time college for 4 yrs (starter) and has had time to settle into the NFL.  I look for a nice, solid career from him.

^^ to be fair, its his first full year.  Pennington started the first 3 games last season.

of course, he is going to definitely be a pro bowler, that is why he slipped in the mid 2nd round.  quite buying all parcells bullshit.  he isn't very good at evaluating talent.

i hope henne gets injured in preseason and has to sit out like 2 or 3 regular season games.  Then pennington will go undefeated and win the starting job, we will make the playoffs, and everybody will be happy.

You've gone so far as to wish injury upon people to prove a point?  Your hatred knows no bounds.

Why do you hate everything the Dolphins are?

Next at 11, Tepop tries to convince Dol-fans that Brandon Marshall is a bum and Ted Ginn was better.

i hope you get in a horrific car accident this week.

I have to complement Tepop...he is a much more effective troll than I. 

Seriously man. Give it a break. Your ignorance is amazing. First of all I would say it has to be news to all of us that Pro Bowlers only come out of the first round. I'd say it is news to all the world. I must have dreamed a lot of other people made it (Not that I'm saying Henne is a PB caliber QB right now). Secondly wishing injury on anyone is a dick move. I bet quite a few people would wish you had a hand injury so you wouldn't be able to type for 2-3 weeks yourself, but no one is coming on here and wishing it on you.

I have to take part of this back after reading some of the responses. People are wishing injury upon you.

I hadn't considered the "Tepop hands injury" angle... Hmmmmm



Don't sell yourself short...

Thank you.  That means a lot to me.