The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Seriously the front office has done a terrible job on this team.  If you took this team right now, and had them play the 2008 schedule, do you think they would finish 11-5 or better.  I don't.  They are worse off at every position except wr and ilb.  the secondary is terrible, the oline has regressed, henne isn't good. But, do you honestly think this team would finish 11-5 or better in 2008???

The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!  I'm not worried at all.  If we start out 0-3 or 0-4 then maybe I'll start worrying.

The two posters in this thread can best decribed as

(http://i676.photobucket.com/albums/vv123/Gardnerius/Disney-Chicken-Little-Sky-Falling.jpg)


VS

(http://capturingfantasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/monty_python_black_knight.jpg)

some more of their high draft picks have been cut.  sean smith sucks, henne sucks, parcells and co are terrible.

And now, I shall attempt to rationally explain Tepop's position:

2008 Draft Picks:
1(1) Jake Long - Solid Pro-Bowler
1(32) Philip Merling - Bad enough to necessitate picking Jared Ordick in 2010
2(26) Chad Henne - Unknown at this point.  I said UNKNOWN, Tepop!   ;)
3(66) Kendall Langford - Solid but unspectacular.  Given he's a 3-4 end, this is not surprising.
4(11) Shawn Murphy - No longer on the roster
6(10) Jalen Parmalee - No longer on the roster
6(29) Donald Thomas - No longer on the roster
6(38) Lex Hilliard - Nice player for the pick position
7(38) Lionel Dotson - No longer on the roster

The 2008 draft has netted one certifiably good player (Long), one player whose career will be made or broken this year (Henne), one who has proven to be steady but unspectacular (Langford), one headcase (Merling), one special teamer (Hilliard) and 4 guys that are either on other teams or out of the league.  We'll say they went 4 for 9 in this draft.

2009 to come... 

2009 Draft Picks:

1(25) Vontae Davis - Potential Pro-Bowler.
2(12) Pat White - Oof...
2(29) Sean Smith - Struggling.  Benched for...Jason Allen?!
3(23) Patrick Turner (Oof...)
4(-8)  Brian Hartline - Excellent pickup, as it turns out.  Considered a reach at the time
5(25) John Nalbone - His first play in week 1 will be...his first
5(29) Chris Clemons - Hopefully the answer at safety
6(-8)  Andrew Gardner - Think he was cut
7(5)  JD Folsom - Think he was cut too

Stats for the 2009 class:   2 certain hits (Hartline, Davis), 1 probable hit (Smith), 2 possible contributors (Clemons, Nalbone).  I'll bank on one of the two making it, giving the front office a 4/9 rating again.

When compared, here's the trend:

Picks in the 6th and 7th rounds aren't sticking, as only Lex Hilliard remains from those two drafts. (1 for 6)

Picks in rounds 1-3 are very hit or miss, with White, Turner, and probably Merling having played their last games as Dolphins, Henne, Langford and Smith still largely unproven, and only Long and Davis performing as expected (that's a best-case scenario of 5 for 8, worst case 2 for 8-).

Picks in rounds 4-5 have yielded nice players (Hartline, Clemons) but also non-factors (Nalbone, Murphy).  (2 for 4)

If you're a glass-half-empty kind of guy, and expect all of the unproven/struggling players to fail, then Miami is 5 for 18 in these two drafts.  Hence, the Tepop rant...

and then factor in all the free agents busts, and you see this fo is terrible.  If they win 6 games this year it will be a miracle.  Parcells should have left town when everyone thought he was good.  This year he will be exposed as a joke.  This team is worse than 2008.

Tepop is right as is every guy like him in every teams fan base. 

Consider this....the team assemble 80 players that the FO thought to be capable of playing at a high level in the NFL and contribute to a team as it pursues the superbowl.  Of those 80 men the trio determined be top notch football players, a shocking thirty or so of them have since failed to make the final roster.  That's right, thirty misses.  Thirty failures of talent sections. Thirty awful and horrible scouting reports. And not that, the same thing happened last year.  And given the track we can expect equally pitiful results next year.  Doesn't matter if the miss was a high draft pick and a hit was an UDFA or vice versa.  It is thirty cases of utter failure on the behalf of management.  Thirty misses and only fifty hits, what a disgrace. 

Well, Hoodie, you actually need to hit on the early round picks.  Guys in the first few rounds usually have an exceptional trait (speed, strength, overall athleticism, whatever) that separate them from 5th rounders.  Those guys put you over the top.  You need to get those guys right, and this front office has been mediocre through two drafts. 

First rounders cost so much, and roster depth is built in rounds 2-5 (is what is commonly said).  I don't mind if 6th and 7th rounders don't make the team. I do mind if, time and again, second rounders don't make it.  We've lived through the Wanny years, when draft after draft went wrong, and I certainly don't think we're headed for a second rounf of that.  However, I can at least understand Tepop's point.  Given the serious talent overhaul this team needed, more of these picks should be sticking.

Put it this way:  you know how, lately, the Pats' drafts have kind of sucked?  Notice how your team seems so much more mortal lately?  I think there's a correlation between the two.

JVides,  Here is how I see it…you need to build a team.  Doesn’t matter much how you build it.  Do you want to hit on your high draft picks?  Of course.  Do you want to find gems in the rough with the low draft picks and UDFA?  Of course.  Is the first more important than the second?  Not at all.

Let me take it to the extreme….

Let say a team needs help at cornerback.  They draft a guy in the second round that is considered one of the best college cornerbacks.  They also grab a nobody CB as an UDFA.  In camp and pre-season games it becomes clear that the 2nd rounder can’t play at the pro level and is absolutely crap.  However, you can’t believe what the kid Butthole Community College can do when given a chance.  He is totally shutting down your #1 WR in practice so give him a chance to start with the ones in the preseason and not a single completion is made on the WR he is covering.  So comes the Saturday before Labor day and the 2nd rounder is on the wavier wire and the UDFA is named as a starter for week 1.  Did the team screw up?  Should the scouting department be fired?  I say no.  The team needed help at cornerback, they got help at cornerback.  Who cares if the second rounder got cut and the UDFA is starting, all that matters is you upgraded at cornerback.  That was the goal. 

Let’s look at the tale of two Dolphin WRs.   Ted Ginn and Wes Welker.  Yeah, the Dolphin’s screwed up by drafting Ted Ginn.  But they also found a WR that is in fact first round talent on the SD UDFA scrap heap.  (Ignore the subsequent mistake of letting him go to a division rival for this discussion).   So for every knock on the team for lousy scouting of a WR for Ginn, gets equalized by the great find of Welker. 

The one exception to this is first round picks at the top of the draft where a mistake not only cost you a pick, but huge cap implications. 

I understand the point you are trying to make, but you are talking about two totally different front offices scouting  Welker and Ginn (Welker was signed in 2004, and Ginn was drafted in 2007.)

Hoodie,  I agree in part with what you say, but my feeling is if that you're getting your draft right, the UDFAs don't make your team, as they are usually bottom of the roster types and the drafted guys are just plain better.  Street free agents becoming NFL stars is rare for a reason.  Being missed by one team is understandable.  7, even.  Being missed by 32 teams 7 times over is not understandable.  Usually - and I stress usually - it's because the guy can't play or has a low ceiling or a huge coke problem.  You have got to hit in rounds 1-3.  Bottom line.

Don't get me wrong.  These past few drafts have been better than the Wannstedt / Spielman 6 year car-wreck.  I just wish guys drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds would crack the rotation more often, or, hell, even the team.

Then you have a problem with 32 front offices and not just one. Every team has UDFAs on it and it will continue through history. I agree they tend to not be stars in most cases, but saying they shoudln't make the roster has been highly disproven by the entire league.

I am assembling a team...what do you think....

Offense:

QB -Tony Romo,  Jeff Garcia,
OL - Shaun O'Hara, Jason Peters, Brian Waters
WR - Miles Austin, Wes Welker
RB - Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Clifton Smith, Rod Smith
TE - Antonio Gates

Defense:
DL - John Randle, Pat Williams
Linebackers - James Harrison, Antonio Pierce, Bart Scott
Safety - Mark Murphy

Special Teams
P – Darren Bennett or Mat McBriar (can’t decide)
K – Robbie Gould

Now I know this is not a complete team and my OL, DL and secondary all needs some beefing up.  But with this as a core do you think I could put together some competitive games.  Even if I missed on a few draft picks. 

Phish - no, I don't have a problem with 32 front offices, as undrafted free agents making it as stars is the exception to the rule, not the norm.  In any large sample (like the 2,000+ college players eligible to be drafted each year), there will be statistical anomalies.  The highly successful UDFA is that anomaly.  He falls well outside of the bell curve.  No team can expect to know every college player, so someone will slip that should not.  however, it is statistically improbable that all 32 teams will simultaneously whiff on the same guy.  It happens occasionally, and when it does, you get Miles Austin and Tony Romo.

Hoodie:
QB - Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, etc...Do you see how I can name endlessly more successful 1st (or in Favre's case, 2nd) round QBs than undrafted ones?  That's because the expectation is that these guys will be good (or great), while undrafted guys tend not to make it because they're not as talented.  Yes, you can man one full team with successfuld undrafted guys.  Probably fill a 53 man roster.  But I could assemble 20 such teams comprised of first through third rounders, because, invariably, they have performed better (that's why they were drafted so high!).  That's all I'm saying.  A team should be lauded for developing UDFAs into workable pieces.  However, a failed high draft pick and a successful UDFA do not make it "even".  It means you have failed in assessing the high pick.  If you miss on 1 of 3 high picks, fine.  The law of averages applies.  If you miss on 2 of 3, not fine.  You stink at your job is what applies.

I can't wait to see Hoodies list of 1st and 2nd round bust QB's.  I'd say the over/under is 15?

Needless to say, it is unnecessary. 

The draft is a crap shoot.  A draft pick is nothing more than a formal invitation to try out for the team.  You hope you bring in the right guys.  But the real stupidity occurs when you bring in the wrong guy and keep him to avoid looking bad cause he was a high draft pick.   

I'm afraid you do have a problem with all the front offices based on you statement that in order to get the draft right no UDFAs should make your team (paraphrase). But yet, all 32 teams have UDFAs on the roster. Therefore, by your statement, none of the front offices get their drafts right.

Phish, I invite you to re-read the post, as I said that UFDAs generally make up the bottom of your roster if they make the team.  They play special teams.  They back up the backup.  Maybe they're the utility lineman who plays three positions.  To be clear:  I have a problem with any front office that continuously whiffs on high-round picks, regardless of how well they do with lower-round and street free agent types.  Are you honestly going to tell me that your position is "Cam Cameron really whiffed on Ted Ginn Jr, Samson Satele, and Reagan Mauia, but getting Greg Camarillo makes up for it!  No harm, no foul!"  I don't believe it for a second!

Don't pretend to know what I have and don't have a problem with, especially as I've taken great pains to state, repeatedly, that success with low rounders isn't a problem, but rather that missing on high-round guys is.   I've stated, repeatedly, that there is no possible way to scout every college player, and that sometimes a guy will slip through the cracks.  That pretty much infers that I have a tolerance for UDFAs making a team, becoming starters, and even starring.  My problem is in systematically missing on high draft picks, regardless of how well teams do with UDFAs.

Pappy/Hoodie:
As for a list of 1st round QB busts, yes, the list could be long.  But the point is that the list of successful 6th round - undrafted QBs begins with Kurt Warner, ends with Tom Brady, and has very little (Tony Romo and...help me out people...)  in between.  There's a reason you can only name a few great street free agents at each position: they're the anomaly. 

UDFA QBs that have been to a pro-bowl includes Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Warren Moon (HOF), Kurt Warner AND others. 

Now if you want to expand it to the 6th round and later you can not only add Tom Brady, but guys like Johnny Unitas (not just a probowler he has a bust in Canton), Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, George Blanda (HOF),  Roger Staubach (HOF), Bart Starr (HOF) and OTHERS.

And keep in mind a guy like Unitas who was drafted in the 9th round, today would be an UDFA because we have less rounds.

How do know when your front office officially sucks? When UDFA or solid "late bloomers" continually beat out the high draft picks. But that would seem to be a trademark of a Sparano coached team.

And yet still, aren't these guys the exception rather than the norm?  Wouldn't Unitas, Blanda, and Starr be more understandable given that college scouting then was not what it is now?  Wasn't Staubach undrafted because he attended a military college and then had to do a 4 year military tour before even entering the NFL?  Wasn't Moon's draft position the product of the "black QBs can't play in this league"racism?  All these guys are the exception, not the rule.  If the rule were that UDFAs make it as often as drafted guys, then NFL rosters would be littered with starters that were UDFAs. 

Yes, you are more likely to hit future hall of fame talent in the 1st round of the draft than in the 6th.  My point is that hitting all or even most of your draft picks is unnecessary to build a winning team.  And what is more important than being right in your draft picks is a willingness to admit the UDFA is in fact better than the high draft pick and fielding the best team you can regardless of where the guy was drafted. 

^^^But haven't we already agreed on this?  I've stated that I don't begrudge a team for succeeding with low round talent if they're also doing at least average work in the draft.  No team nails its entire draft.  Teams should nail at least half of it, though. 

I've never advocated sticking with your crappy early round choices despite evidence that the undrafted guy is better.  I've advocated doing all you can to make sure your high-round picks are actually good players.  IF the glass-half empty thing I first mentioned comes to pass (and to be clear, I don't think it will), then there is no way, Davone Bess and Julius Pruitt or no, that Miami's front office should be allowed to go 5 for 18 in two drafts.  I don't care how many undrafted gems they find.  5 for 18, on a talent-starved team, is ridiculous.

davone bess is not a game changing player.  if this FO didn't pick him up the team would be just about the same. Lets get back to the fact that this team is worse than the 2008 team, and doesn't have a very bright future.  the oline is terrible after they keep switching players in and out.  where is the youth on the line?  one great player and the rest are useless retreads.  the defensive backs are younger but they don't have a very high ceiling, save for davis. if they pan out they might be middle of the road starters. 

The reason for this is simple, QB's are HIGHLY prized possessions.  Any QB in college that shows even the slightest bit of potential for greatness is scooped up near the top of the draft.  Seldom do QB's that have shown potential slip to the 5th round or go undrafted.  That means that 5th round QB's are complete UNKNOWN's.  There's absolutely no expectation that a 5th round QB will make the team, let alone become a star, they are nothing more than a flyer that maybe somebody saw something in or perhaps knows him personally or more likely knows someone that knows the guy personally that says he's worth giving him a shot.  That also explains why there are so many 1st round busts, just because they have shown potential in college doesn't ensure NFL ability.

My displeasure with taking Pat White in the 2nd round has NOTHING to do with the fact that he didn't pan out.  It has to do with the fact that Dolphin's weren't really in NEED of a QB at the time.  They already had Pennington, Henne and Beck (who by the way is still in the NFL at Washington and I STILL would have rather kept than White).  Why choose a QB there?  You already have a veteran coming off his best season and 2 young QB's with potential, why take another one?  That's what I just didn't understand.

Here is what I think happened.....

The Dolphins didn't draft White to play QB.  But drafted him as an athlete.  Much the way the Patriots didn't draft Edelman who played QB in college to be a QB.   White could be a running back with a better throwing arm than Brown.   But they were willing to give him a shot at competing for the QB job, if that woulld make him happy.     

The Dolphin's failure was to fully vet out White's unwillingness to play any position other than QB.  As the Dez Bryant incident shows, the Ireland needs some work on his interviewing skills.

Ok, I'll buy that, but then you still have Ronnie Brown who might be the best triggerman for the wildcat in the NFL, again you don't really NEED White.  Now maybe you think he's an upgrade to Brown, but there are LOTS of other positions of bigger NEED on the team in my humble opinion.

I understand going for the best available athlete if you already have a decent team with few glaring holes.  When you are rebuilding, I think you got to look at need before best available.  And yes there's a train of thought that says you take best available athlete when you are rebuilding because you need everything, but I don't think the Dolphins were quite in that boat.  They were coming off an 11-5 season.  Obviously there were a few things in place, but they needed to plug some holes and get younger in some places, not take the best available.

That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Options...options....options. The power of the wildcat is it ability to make the offense unpredictable.  White can throw the ball down field (or at least the Dolphins thought he could when they drafted him).  Brown can't.  Have Henne line up at WR and you don't need to cover him, the Dolphins never throw him the ball.  Have White line up at WR and have Brown throw a 5 yarder to a completely open White. 

RB get injured more often than QBs.   Depth at wildcat trigger man is not a bad thing. 

I think he was drafted too high.  You take a flyer on a guy like this in later rounds, not round 2.  But I can understand how they wanted to expand Hennings options for creativity.  The biggest strength the Dolphins have in my opinion is the OC.

Depends on what you call down field.  Ronnie is actually decent throwing the ball a short distance.  He throws a nice spiral that's easily catchable and honestly you don't really have to be that accurate since you're probably going to be throwing to a TE on a crossing pattern covered by a LB or something.  It's a fairly easy throw.  Granted that White would supposedly be able to make the tougher throws, but are you really ready to run a spread offense or are you just looking to run the wildcat?  If you are considering the spread offense, then yes Pat White is a better option, but Ronnie is just fine running the wildcat, you don't need Pat White to do that.  Considering the fact they took 2 WR's in the draft as well, perhaps they were really looking at the spread?

I think White was suppose to be able to run the wildcat the way Micheal Vick did.  Throw 30 yards down the field or run for 8.  Just like the what Denver hopes they have in Tebow. 

Well that really wasn't the wildcat, that was more like the spread and if that's what they thought then yeah, I guess that makes some sense.

bump.  justin smiley, jake grove, gibril wilson, ernest wilford.  and the plethora of dallas retreads.  how can anybody have any confidence in this front office.