The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Considered just dropping this in the NFL section, but since "everyone and their mother*" is mocking Mark Ingram to Miami at #15 this year, I thought it fit here as well. Miami's "potentially next" RB is working out today at the NFL Combine...running the 40, going through cutting drills, catching passes, etc... He'lll be coming up shortly on the "live" segment currently airing on the NFL Network, but they'll be replaying it again later this afternoon and tonight as well.

(* Everyone and their mother includes Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, 2 of the 3 mocks at walterfootball.com and most of the rest)

i like ingram... good solid player, but drafting a rb in the first round?? i hope this organization learned their lesson last time they drafted a rb so high in the draft.

Have to admit that I like Ingram even more now than I did before his workout. His .40 speed isn't great, but his 10-yard split was extremely quick, which sort of confirms what he's show at 'Bama...that he's not "track quick," but he explodes through the line of scrimmage like few RBs. He caught the ball well in the receiving drills as well.

If we take a RB at #15 in this draft we are a dumb organization on every level

If we get Ingram at #15, it would be the best thing they've done in years.

taking a RB that high when our team has so many holes and voids to fill would be insane on every level. It didn't work when we took Ronnie Brown at #2 it won't work now!

As much as I'm traditionally against picking an RB so highly, especially with our needs, if we think he's the best player on the board, this is the best year to do it.  We have potentially two big name RBs leaving this team at once, and no real replacements.  It would possibly fill that gap for 5 years.  Also, RBs can generally start contributing right away.  It's not a position that requires a lot of learning in the transition.

...unless the RB that Miami selects turns out to be a front line elite RB, in which case the organization will look pretty smart.


"Don't know the future" disclaimers added...


Agree 100% with this...and despite also being on the "avoid drafting RBs in round one" bandwagon, I think that Mark Ingram would be a good value at #15.

Saying "don't pick a RB in the first round cause we did that 5 years ago" is short-sighted and silly, IMO.

Ingram is a guy that can step in and make plays immediately, and with Ronnie and Ricky both in limbo, it fills that hole and takes the pressure off resigning both (or either) of them.  Especially since Ronnie thinks he deserves 8million bucks.

Its like saying "we have to take a QB in the first round every year, cause last time we did, it was Dan Marino" ::)

its just a position that you can find guys so easy anywhere, practically off the street.

arian foster was undrafted by the texans in 2009. guys drafted in the top of the draft won't make that much of an appreciable difference at the running back position than guys drafted really late.

at other positions, the differences are huge. the dolphins would be better off getting the best interior offensive lineman on their board than a rb.

^^ respectfully disagree.

If you have a top-tier offensive line, you and I could run through those holes.

But, with suspect-at-best talent at the interior line, you need a playmaker - someone who has good speed on the edges and is shify enough to make guys miss.  As good as Arian Foster was last year for the Texans, he probably would have had half the yardage running through the minuscule cracks the Dolphins' line could open.

I'd like to see Miami add a couple of quality OL prospects as well as a "workhorse-type" RB. You need both RB and OL to perform at a high level in order to have a really successful rushing attack.

you can find workhorse type running backs, hell you can find star running backs, late in the draft. you can find good running backs off the practice squad. you can find good veteran running backs on waivers.

it is way more difficult to find good offensive linemen later in the draft, or on someones scrap heap.

in today's nfl, running backs are a dime a dozen. to spend a high draft pick on one given all the other holes on the football team would be a mistake.

You can find superstar caliber players "at every position" later in the draft. I can point to hall of famers at virtually every position that didn't get drafted until late...if at all.

Clearly the percentage of 7th rounders who pan out into pro-bowlers is lower than the percentage of 1st rounders.

I don't necessarily agree that RB's are a dime a dozen.  Sure you can find guys, but if these guys are stud caliber, they're not free agents.

It seems that it is easier to plug in a running back than it is just about any other position. It really depends on what is sitting there at 15 I think. I'd prefer us to beef up our line with more studs, but I just don't know what we will be choosing from at that point. If Ingram looks to be the best guy we probably need to go there. I don't want any reaches with our first pick this year.

not advocating for a qb in first round, but this is interesting perspective from salguero through an nfl scout at the combine on qb success relative to draft selection

"generally, those picked in the first round succeed to some degree on an NFL level between 55-60 percent of the time.

Everything after that?

The chances of success drop off the table.

I'm told QBs picked in rounds 2-3 succeed about 20 percent of the time. Everything after that drops into the single digits of success depending on the year. Yes, for every Tom Brady picked 199th overall, there are approximately 91 other guys that never start a game in the NFL."

Read more: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2011/02/back-to-work-so-lets-get-to-it-much-has-happened-sincei-was-last-allowed-to-work-by-the-herald-so-lets-do-some-catching.html#ixzz1FHsxTgDF


sure you can find stars at every position in all rounds in the draft, but certain position have significantly better odds than others. qb for example, after round 2, is almost a throw away pick.

YEP!! Someone gets it

THIS IS NOT APPLICABLE TO ALL TEAMS.

I agree with you that LEAGUE WIDE you may be able to find RB's to be successful.  For example, how many years in the late 90's and 2000's did Denver just plug in random jabroni du jour and he would rush for 2000 yards?

The Dolphins aren't that team.

The Dolphins require a highly-skilled RB.  A 6th round guy at RB isn't going to even get a look.  How many 4-7 round RB's have the Dolphins selected?  And how many have panned out?

2008 - Jalen Parmele - 6th round
2008 - Lex Hilliard - 6th round
2007 - Lorenzo Booker - 4th round
2005 - Ronnie Brown - 1st round
2002 - Leonard Henry - 5th round
2001 - Travis Minor - 3rd round

The only guy on that list that had any kind of success is Ronnie Brown.  Wanna know what's different about him?  He was drafted early.

Its not a coincidence.

Let's look at last year's rushing leaders:
Arian Foster - undrafted
Jamaal Charles - 3rd round
Michael Turner - 5th round
Chris Johnson - 1st round
Maurice Jones-Drew - 2nd round
Adrian Peterson - 1st round
Rashard Mendenhall - 1st round
Steven Jackson - 1st round
Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th round
Ray Rice - 2nd round
Peyton Hillis - 7th round
Darren McFadden - 1st round
Cedric Benson - 1st round
LeSean McCoy - 2nd round
Matt Forte - 2nd round

10 out of the top 15 were drafted in rounds 1 and 2.  Not a coincidence.  Only 4 of these guys were picked round 5 or later.

Finding a diamond in the rough IS possible, but its not the norm.  And when you have literally no talent on the interior offensive line, you can't bank on picking a random guy late and hoping he pans out.

nobody is saying we have to wait till the late rounds or the undrafted group. But we could wait till round 3 or 4 to grab a RB. Taking one at 15 in my opinion is foolish.

The league is set up for the passing game anyway, the days of ball control, run the ball are over and done with. I would rather take a WR at #15 than a RB anyway.

The Packers just won a SB with a group of RB's nobody even heard of in the middle of the season.

ronnie brown, the shining example as to why the dolphins desperately need to draft a running back high in the first round.

never mind with the #2 pick in the draft that year, and a black hole at the quarterback position, the dolphins could've drafted probably the greatest qb of his generation... nah, better to draft running backs high. better value...

23 teams passed on Aaron Rodgers that day.

Besides, Dolphins' fans would have run him out of town.  He wouldn't have had 3 years to sit and learn behind a living legend. 

That is the silliest argument I've ever heard. 

You're poo-pooing on Mark Ingram because Aaron Rodgers turned out being good?

Wowsers...

Those hindsight goggles...they only see what you want to see. Instead of Aaron Rodgers, why didn't you use the QB drafted right next to Rodgers in that draft (Jason Campbell) as your example? Why not the QB drafted at #1 right ahead of Ronnie? (Alex Smith)

Oh wait...because those wouldn't be nearly as dramatic as saying Miami missed out on "probably the greatest QB of his generation."

The other two RBs that were drafted in the top-10 in that class were Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams. Which of those two would you have preferred Miami to draft instead of Ronnie?

You could actually look at that draft class and say that Miami probably got better production from Ronnie Brown than any other player selected in the top-10.

...but that wouldn't support the whole "we shouldn't have drafted Ronnie Brown" as well as the Aaron Rodgers argument did.

I'm so glad you wrote this so I didn't have to go on a rant, however I'll add, just because a draft pick works out for one team doesn't mean it will work out for another!!!

I'd rather we didn't draft an RB at #15, I think line play rather than talent was the factor behind the stagnant run game this year, however if we take Ingram I don't have an issue with it as long as we commit to the strategy of improving the run game.

In alternative speak, drafting Ingram as a piece of solving our running game puzzle, fine, drafting Ingram because he's the value pick at #15, not fine.

Patriots won the super bowl three times in four years with a QB drafted in the 6th round.

You can find good players at every position late in the draft.  But overall at every position the better players typically are in the early rounds.   

all im saying is that given you can find better players in the early rounds, with some positions thinning out on talent rather quickly, having gaping holes to fill at said positions, and missing a second round pick, running back has to be lower priority.

one of these qb's out of the five or so projected to go early is probably going to turn into a real good starter. that position is significantly more valuable than running back, and the dolphins have plenty of experience with that.

Possibly, but maybe not.

If one of them does, the question is "which one?"

Does anyone think that Ingram's slow 40 yard time hurt his chances in Miami?  According to Ireland he's looking for a little more speed and excitement.  Someone that can break a run for a long one, something that Ronnie and Ricky can't do.

Personally I think it did.  I think it may have scared Miami off of him.  On the other hand it was a bit of a surprise so maybe it was just a bad run and he'll do better in other workouts.  That would definately change things.

^^^ 40yd times are over rated.  Quickness in moves, which most believe Ingram has, is more important.  40 yd dash does nothing if you can't move good laterally to find the holes and get past the line of scrimmage.  Not to mention conditioning for playing the entire game, not just the first play when you are fresh determines whether the back will be successful.

agreed.  i care more about the cone drill than the 40.

I watched every drill that they televised for Ingram, and the dude looked plenty quick to me. Like I mentioned earlier, his ten yard split (read: burst through the line) was "really" fast.

But how long has the media and/or Sparano and Ireland been complaining that Ricky and Ronnie lack the necessary speed to break a long TD run?  Getting through the hole and into the secondary is great and yes that's extremely important, but the Dolphins have had that for years, what they have lacked is a guy that when he breaks into the open can outrun DB's and get into the endzone.  Big play guys.  Doesn't seem like Mark Ingram is that guy. I'm not saying it's the most important thing, but it is something to think about. 

I'm sensing a lot of you are leaning toward taking Ingram at 15 now.  I'm not convinced. Ingram might be the best offensive player available at #15, but this draft is defensive heavy in most people's opinion and there are going to be better defensive players on the board at #15.  Seems like we are settling for Ingram because he's an offensive player rather than looking for the best player.  I don't want to pick a defensive player, so I would rather try to trade down, but if we can't do that, I think we should take the best available player regardless of what position he plays, even if that's on the defensive side of the ball.

Disagree with this completely. Neither RB we have on the roster is above average at exploding through the line of scrimmage. Hell, Ronnie does a 2 minute tap dance in the backfield every time he gets handed the ball.

^^^ agree with this.  Ronnie can never commit to a hole.  If it closes, he falls down.  Ricky bounces outside and runs 20 yards for a 1 yard gain.  Besides, its likely both of those guys won't be back.

We have positions of need.  You can get a stud at 15.  Interior o-line and RB are the biggest glaring holes (aside from QB). 

I don't see any other options.  Everyone always wants to trade down, but its easier said than done (unless you're Bill Belichick).

Ronnie dances but Ricky doesn't and Ricky has better than average speed.  He is quite good at hitting the hole and getting through it quickly.  Now Ricky is getting older and is not quite as explosive as he once was, but he has plenty of speed to hit the hole.

And while Ronnie certainly does dance a lot, he's still pretty darn good at finding a hole and getting through it.  That's essentially what he was asked to do when he ran the wildcat.

I just get the feeling that we are talking ourselves into Mark Ingram rather than letting Mark Ingram convince us.  His 40 yard dash time is a red flag in my opinion especially when going into the draft everyone was saying we needed more big play guys.  Mark Ingram is probably a safe bet, but is he the right choice?

Its gonna be something to watch when the Dolphins fans at the draft go nutts when they pick an offensive guard or tackle with the first pick.

Learn from history folks.  This front office is conservative in the first round. 

Personally, I am praying that we manage a trade to pick up a second rounder because I really don't want to spend a #15 pick on another lineman. 

^^^I'm hoping for a lineman, provided he has the talent.

I don't think the Dolphins will take Ingram because the "experts" are saying that they will.  Draft projections are rarely correct after the first few picks.

I don't see guys who learned under the hand of Parcells taking  a RB in round 1. There is no value there unless its one of those once in a lifetime guys like A.P.

Draft a guard or a center and I will be happy. Give me a speed WR and I will be happy. Hell roll the dice on a QB even, fine, I can live with that. Just do not take a RB at 15.

Ok are you on crack, How did Ronnie Brown did not work.  I want you to fill the void i been missing.

How did it not work? ha ha...He isn't all that good and was/is always injured. And if you take a guy #2 overall, you hope to have him on your team more than 5 years. You hope to get a constant pro bowl player if not a future hall of fame player with the #2 overall pick of the draft. We drafted a guy who needs to play in a time-share at RB with an old, pot smoking RB.  How did it not work out, you can't seroiusly ask that with a straight face!

With the 167th pick in the 2000 draft, we could have drafted the QB with the highest win % of all time.  Therefore, it is folly to draft QBs before the sixth round.

I mean, since we are using one-off examples based on nothing but hindsight.

edit: By the way, not to let facts get in the way or anything, but at the time, this (http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php/topic,5406.msg52302.html#msg52302) was your evaluation of the 2005 draft:

"i like the way saban is managing this draft" sure doesn't look like "why did saban pass up the best quarterback of his generation?!?" to me.

The year the Dolphins have the #2 overall pick, Ronnie Brown was the best option.  Would you rather have had Alex "Fumble" Smith?  Cadillac "career ending knee injury" Williams?  Braylon "Ted Ginn" Edwards?

I don't get why you bash Ronnie.  They played the cards they were dealt and I think got the best success out of what they could.  I agree he's not Chris Johnson, but for that draft class, he's the best you could have gotten.

However, even if he played 1 game and broke both of his legs and never played again, that still doesn't mean jack when evaluating future first-round talent.  I can't see the correlation here.

Yeah, the Ronnie Brown bashing here is ridiculous... He wound up being the best guy in the top 10 (IMHO, anyway)... Had we drafted anyone else, people would have been screaming "reach".

This kind hind-sight'ing is ridiculous. Ronnie Brown, while not great, has been a VERY good running back and clearly the best "pick" the front office could realistically have taken at #2.

I dunno who they should take, the Fins do need a RB, I just dont know if #15 would be a waste or not. The only thing that concerns me about Ingram is that he only averaged about 14 carries/game, which is very low, I wonder how he'd do in the NFL carryin the ball 20+ game after game

That's a rarity in the NFL:

ridiculously long nfl.com url (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=0&season=2010&experience=null&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&qualified=true)

The stats are similar for other seasons... only about a handful of running backs average 20+ carries a game. And if you look at the list, it's not like those top guys were the best running backs last year (with Arian Foster a big exception -- the rest of the top look rather mediocre).

Huh?

Of the top 10 rushers in total yards, 5 of them averaged over 20 APG, and two more averaged over 19.  Furthermore, of the top 10 in APG, only two (C.Benson and F.Gore) finished outside of the top 10 in rushing yards.  I'm not sure what metric you are using to determine who is mediocre, but the top 10 in APG looks like a fairly good representation of the best in the league to me.

OF COURSE the top "total yards" rushers are usually among those with the most attempts per game; that's how you get a lot of yards.

It's such a ridiculously poor measure of running back performance, however, so I honestly didn't think anyone would use that.

Seriously, who had a better season, Steven Jackson or Darren McFadden? Jackson had more total yards, but his average was 3.8 while McFadden gained 5.2 yards per attempt. I know which performance I'd rather have... No, I'm not saying yards per attempt is the only way to look at performance (certainly better than total yards for backs with a lot of carries).

So what did you mean when you said the list of top RBs (by attempts) looked "rather mediocre"?  With two exceptions (Benson and Gore, who were just on mindless pound-the-ball losers), it looked like a pretty good representation of the best RBs in the league to me.

If we rate RBs by average yards per attempt there isn't a single RB in the top 35.  The best running back is a punter named Reggie Hodges.

The best actual RB is Brian Leonard of Cinn who averaged 6.8 yards per carry.   Must have really impressed the coaches too cause they let him carry the ball a whopping 9 times during the entire season.

Miami should let Marlon Moore lineup at running back more often he is the teams best rusher averaging 16 yards per attempt.   

Why in the world do you think I included the "for backs with lots of carries" provision?


I disagree ;)

Less than half of the top ten in attempts / game would make my top ten overall running backs of last season. That Charles kid on the Chiefs played some REALLY fine ball. I don't know if you saw any Chiefs games, but he was running like mad and catching balls whenever he got the chance. For some insane reason, the Chiefs had him split carries evenly with Thomas Jones. Charles had 6.4 yards per attempt, Jones 3.7 yards per attempt. Yet Charles got the ball more. Was he a better back? Hardly.

I saw a lot of Steelers games last season and Rashard Mendelhall was bad. Yeah, he wasn't helped by the blocking, but the total performance was even worse than his very mediocre 3.9 yards per attempt suggest. Yet, the Steelers kept feeding him the ball the tune of 20+ carries a game. Should he be considered one of the top backs last season because of that? Hardly.

Bottom line is, it's quite common for teams to use some sort of running back by committee these days, even for a very good back. There is, IMHO, little correlation between the most heavily used backs in the league and the best backs.

Getting back to Ingram... I just don't think he'll necessarily need to withstand 20+ carries a game. As the stats show, that's fairly rare.