The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

CHFF, a site dedicated to analyzing football players and teams based on facts and statistics rather than gut and truthiness, has graded each teams drafts for the decade of 2001-2010. 

Dolphins got a D. 


http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3751_Ultimate_10-year_draft_grades%3A_back_of_the_class.html

Tell us something we don't know.

...like, what is "Career AV"?

In gory detail it can be found here....

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518

The short answer is a metric that was invented by PFR not CHFF that attempts to give a single measure of value for a player across all positions and all years.  While not perfect it is probably a better measure than any other stat you could use such as games as a starter or season as a probowler to measure all football players as a group. 

2011 sure didn't get the next decade going in the right direction either.

I love your optimism, and fairness to the rookies that haven't even stepped on the practice field yet.  The Patsies are looking for a couple bandwagoners why don't you check them out.

That's why I prefer articles such as this than articles analyzing the 2011 draft.  Maybe the Dolphins drafted 6 guys who in two years will be out of the league.  Maybe the Dolphins drafted 6 future Hall of Famers.  Reality is we have no idea, unless you are presuming that YOU based on reading a few magazine articles and watching a couple of college games have an actual better scouting report the a professional team.  The Dolphins drafted players they believe can help the team.

However, we do know that Pat White was not a good pick.  

Consider this...if someone was to grade the NEP 2000 draft the week after the draft what grade would NE get for drafting Tom Brady?  After the 2008 draft the Jets go high marks for drafting Gholston.  

Career approximate value

Here is a good page to explain AV: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518)

I hate "invented stats" :(

ANY/A
DVOA
Career AV

Got it...

Aren't all stats invented?

ANY/A, DVOA, AV, passer rating, adjusted yards per pass all attempt to present a bit more data than something like total yards can't by itself. 

For the record, I think Passer Rating is crap as well.

How about completion percentage?  Or sacks?

I mean, when you get right down to it, is there any "real" stat besides W/L?

All 3 of them? I admire your positivity, but unless you are a total homer, there's no way that anybody can look at 2011 as a great draft unless you take into consideration draft position. Miami had a mid first, low 2nd and mid 4th round pick and then 3 in the 6th and 7th rounds. Unless one of those 6 or 7th rounds turns out to be the draft equivalent of Tom Brady, at BEST Miami can hope for 3 starters out of this draft and I don't see that happening. Only Pouncey really is considered pretty close to can't miss.

Three starters out of any draft for a team is damn good. 

How often does a team draft three starters in a single season? 

My point is we don't have any clue how this years Miami draft will be judged in 5 years, when judging can actually be done accurately. 

If it's damn good then no way Miami deserves a D for the last 10 years. We've gotten 3 starters from each draft in the last 3 years and I'd be willing to bet that throughout 2000-2010 we've gotten at least a couple players that started at least a few games just about every year. No, I don't think 3 starters is that great of a draft unless at least 1 is a pro-bowler or something.

Well Miami is 3 for 3 the last 3 years. Do you consider those great drafts?

And my point is that normally a team will have 4 or 5 picks in the first 5 rounds and you're doing pretty well to get 3 starters. With Miami only have 3 picks in the first 5 rounds, getting 3 starters out of that group is expecting a lot. No, there's no way to predict who will and won't work out, but the odds say at least one of those 3 won't pan out and the odds that one of the 6th or 7th round picks will are pretty low. Maybe you're right and 5 years from now 2011 will look like a pretty good draft, but the odds are against it.

You got one from last year.  Koa Misi.  I consider a starter someone who started more than half the games in the season not a guy who was a backup for most games but started one game cause the player he backed up was injured.

In that case:

2009- V. Davis, S.Smith, B. Hartline, C. Clemons
2008- J. Long, C. Henne, K. Langford
2007- S. Satele, P. Soliai, B. Fields
2006- bust
2005- R. Brown, C. Crowder
2004- V. Carey, R. Hadnot
2003- Y. Bell
2002- R. McMichael
2001- C. Chambers, M. Greenwood

If a player was on the team for 3+ years (or are still on current roster) and started more than half their games, they made this list.  The exception is Satele, who started every game here for two years, was traded, and went on to start at his new team (which I do not consider a bust); contrast The Ginn Family, who does not start in SF.

The later third of the decade has been better than the earlier part.  The grade was for the whole decade. 

Well, if your point is that it wasn't a good draft for Miami because they didn't have five picks in the first five rounds, I'd have to agree with you.  However, if you are just being a sad sally knocking the players that were picked then I'd refer you to my original post.

John Jerry started 10 games for Miami last year and Odrick started game 1 before he was injured and out for the year. I expect both Jerry and Odrick will start this year.  Along with Misi that's 3 starters from last year's draft and that's not counting Nolan Carroll's and Reshad Jones' contribution.  Miami might very well have picked up 3 or 4 starters along with a couple more contributor's in last year's draft.

Correct. I'm actually NOT knocking the players that were picked at all. I'm knocking the fact that we ONLY had 3 picks in the first 5 rounds of the draft. That's a VERY small sampling. Pretty much all 3 picks had better be at least decent or one of the lower round picks that almost never pan out had better be at least decent or it's going to be a pretty weak draft class, pretty much on par with what we did in the first half of the decade and were given a grade of D for.

^^^ you do have a point...

In the 10 years....

Miami had  8 first round picks.
10 2nd round
11 3rd
7 4th
11 5th
14 6th
and
15 7th

So the Dolphins either are trading down more than BB (particularly out of te 4th round), or are using high draft picks to acquire players and trading away players for low draft picks.   

Stuff like this IMO,reflects on the need for having a stable front office,and not going through coaches (front office people) every few years.Wannstedt +Rick Speilman,Speilman+Bates,Saban+Mueller,Mueller+Cameron,Parcells+Ireland+Sparano,Ireland+Sparano...

Hoodie- While your comment about Misi being the only starter is accurate, I can't look at it in that "black and white" of terms, when you consider that a second round pick was traded for Marshall, and Edds and Odrick were both hurt. Both of those guys could be productive starters this season (if not bothm then at least Odrick). That's three starting bodies from the draft, plus Edds if he doesn't. -EK

Edds isn't going to beat out Misi or Wake I don't beleive. Where is he going to start?

That's why I said 3, and Edds as a possible, not a for sure. FWIW, though I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot at Crowder's spot. -EK

That is what can be called fuzzy math though. Marshall was a trade. There isn't a law set in stone saying you can't count him as part of that draft, but in my world I don't. The way I see it, we got one possibly two starters (our line was good enough Odrick may be in the rotation but not start) with an outside shot at a three.

I don't think Edds has ever played inside (at least not in college) so maybe he has those skills, maybe not. At this stage I doubt he has the instincts though.

I have no problem with that. Call it fuzzy math if you want, but I think it severly oversimplifies things to say, "All Miami got out of that draft was Misi, so it's a poor draft." -EK

You both are forgetting about John Jerry who started 10 games for Miami. You are also forgetting about Reshad Jones who started 2 games and Nolan Carroll who started 1.

There are potentially 6 players that will make significant contributions in 2011 from the 2010 draft. Odrick, Misi, Jerry, Edds, Carroll and Jones. In my humble opinion 2010 will come to be looked at as a terrific draft class.

I didn't say that.

That was the same oversimplification people gave to NE in the 2007 draft which yielded two pro-bowl WR - a 2nd for Welker and a 4th for Moss.  

The CHFF article stayed away from trades, FA, etc in their analysis.  SD got credited for drafting pro-bowlers Eli Manning and Drew Brees.  

I'm cool with that. It's yet another reason why some of these stats guys need to get out more. -EK

Well, it is a good measure of how good the team drafts. 

In the decade SD drafted not one, not two, but three pro-bowl, franchise quality QBs.   Someone in their scouting office is pretty good at finding QBs. 

Who was the third one, besides Brees and Manning/Rivers?  SD can't get credit for drafting Manning and Rivers.

I used Hoodie's criteria, so those guys don't qualify based on that.

Jerry should have qualified.  He started over half of his games.

There are potentially....lots of things.  Potentially Mallott could have a better career than Brady.  

Let's stick to what has actually happened.  Particularly if we judge from one team to another.  Every team has a bunch of players that potentially could have a break out this year.  

Potentially 2010 could go down as a bust of a draft for the Dolphins and 2011 as the greatest since Marino.  But that is just speculation.  

Ok, let's stick to what happened.

Misi started 11 games.
Jerry started 10 games.
Odrick started 1 game.
Reshad Jones started 2 games.
Nolan Carroll started 1 game.

That's 25 starts from the rookie class of 2010 DESPITE 2 season ending injuries. That's DAMN good and that IS what actually happened.

Time to get down from the soap box Hoodie. There's speculation and then there's observation, critical analysis and expected results based on a relatively small subset of data. They aren't the same thing.

I was thinking he took over for injury, but maybe I'm wrong.