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TDMMC Forums => Dolphins Discussion => Topic started by: dolphins4life on September 30, 2016, 07:20:31 pm



Title: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: dolphins4life on September 30, 2016, 07:20:31 pm
Do you really think that will do any good?  Tannehill is not mobile and he has no pocket presence at all.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dolfanalyst on September 30, 2016, 07:44:51 pm
Think about what opposing linebackers and safeties can do in terms of pass coverage when the QB rolls out and positions himself on one side of the field.

What you gain in escaping pressure you lose in finding open spaces for receivers.  If you roll out and nobody's open, what's the use?

There's a reason you see teams operating from the pocket, primarily.  Tannehill needs to become more adept at moving within the pocket and evading pressure.

You don't resort to an offensive method that's ineffective at the NFL level to compensate for the weaknesses of your QB.  You instead modify those weaknesses, or move on to another player.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: fyo on October 03, 2016, 06:46:14 am
Do you really think that will do any good?  Tannehill is not mobile and he has no pocket presence at all.

I've been very vocal in my wish to see more rollouts called. The reason is simple: When rolling out, Tannehill does EXTREMELY well. In fact, when rolling out or scrambling, Tannehill is an elite quarterback. The media regularly show these stats during games, so that is my primary reference, but not one that can be easily linked to since the underlying data isn't published online. Pro Football Focus published a comprehensive two years ago covering the 2013 season (link (https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-drop-back-rollout-scramble/)). It had Tannehill as the third best quarterback on rollouts and fourth best on scrambles.

As for your arguments that the team SHOULDN'T feature rollouts, I disagree with the not mobile part and your second argument is an argument FOR rollouts, not against.

Regarding the mobility of Tannehill, I point to the numbers in the link above (and similar numbers for other seasons), however I certainly grant that he does not scramble around as often as he should when the pocket collapses (or fails to materialize). As for why, I can only guess, but one of those guesses would certainly be a less than ideal pocket presence, which, again, is an argument FOR rolling him out.

DOLFANANALYST: Do you have any data to back up your claim that rolling a quarterback out is "ineffective at the NFL level"? I ask because the only firm data I have (for the 2013 season) points to the opposite. The league average passer rating was 86.9 on straight dropbacks and 96.6 on rollouts.

Rolling a quarterback out is an effective method of disguising weaknesses in your offensive line. As with probably every playcall in existence, there are advantages and disadvantages. I'm not pretending there are no disadvantages. What I am saying is that, on average, the advantages significantly outweigh the disadvantages and for Tannehill, in particular, it moves his statistical performance into "elite" territory. Whether that is on Tannehill or just because it has been masking defects in the offensive line is not something we have the data to distinguish between, but unless the offensive line has suddenly become perfect, that distinction is likely to be irrelevant.

And, no, of course the team shouldn't roll out Tannehill on every single play. It is simply a playcall that I would like to see featured (much) more often, simply because it gets better results on average.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dolfanalyst on October 03, 2016, 09:30:44 am
I've been very vocal in my wish to see more rollouts called. The reason is simple: When rolling out, Tannehill does EXTREMELY well. In fact, when rolling out or scrambling, Tannehill is an elite quarterback. The media regularly show these stats during games, so that is my primary reference, but not one that can be easily linked to since the underlying data isn't published online. Pro Football Focus published a comprehensive two years ago covering the 2013 season (link (https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-drop-back-rollout-scramble/)). It had Tannehill as the third best quarterback on rollouts and fourth best on scrambles.

As for your arguments that the team SHOULDN'T feature rollouts, I disagree with the not mobile part and your second argument is an argument FOR rollouts, not against.

Regarding the mobility of Tannehill, I point to the numbers in the link above (and similar numbers for other seasons), however I certainly grant that he does not scramble around as often as he should when the pocket collapses (or fails to materialize). As for why, I can only guess, but one of those guesses would certainly be a less than ideal pocket presence, which, again, is an argument FOR rolling him out.

DOLFANANALYST: Do you have any data to back up your claim that rolling a quarterback out is "ineffective at the NFL level"? I ask because the only firm data I have (for the 2013 season) points to the opposite. The league average passer rating was 86.9 on straight dropbacks and 96.6 on rollouts.

Rolling a quarterback out is an effective method of disguising weaknesses in your offensive line. As with probably every playcall in existence, there are advantages and disadvantages. I'm not pretending there are no disadvantages. What I am saying is that, on average, the advantages significantly outweigh the disadvantages and for Tannehill, in particular, it moves his statistical performance into "elite" territory. Whether that is on Tannehill or just because it has been masking defects in the offensive line is not something we have the data to distinguish between, but unless the offensive line has suddenly become perfect, that distinction is likely to be irrelevant.

And, no, of course the team shouldn't roll out Tannehill on every single play. It is simply a playcall that I would like to see featured (much) more often, simply because it gets better results on average.

The point I'm making is that rolling out QBs is something rarely done in the NFL, and there is a reason for that.  As you can from the data the link above, Tannehill rolled out 28 times in 2013, out of 605 pass dropbacks on the year.  Russell Wilson led the league that year with 73 rollouts on 370 pass dropbacks.  The average QB in the league looks to have rolled out on roughly 5% of his pass dropbacks on the season.

Obviously this is something rarely used at the NFL level.  Is the entire league of head coaches and offensive coordinators mistaken?

Would Tannehill improve by rolling out more?  It depends on how much more.  He may improve some, from rolling out some more.

But to roll him out often enough (in theory) to improve his overall performance to the level it would need to be to generate the contribution from the QB position necessary to make the team highly competitive in the NFL, would very likely produce diminishing returns (in reality) for the reasons I mentioned above.

In other words, he isn't just "rolling out more" from being the QB he was envisioned by Dolphins' fans to be when he was drafted.  The issue is far more complex, and requires a far more complex solution in my opinion.

And, ironically, I'd like to see him roll out more, too. :)


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Phishfan on October 03, 2016, 09:45:02 am
Do you really think that will do any good?  Tannehill is not mobile and he has no pocket presence at all.

Tannehill is actually pretty good at moving once he goes forward (movement in the pocket is sketchy) and the rollout gets him outside the pocket which negates the need for pocket presence. You seem to be making points for why he should use them in your questioning of if it would work.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: fyo on October 03, 2016, 10:01:38 am
Obviously this is something rarely used at the NFL level.  Is the entire league of head coaches and offensive coordinators mistaken?

Would Tannehill improve by rolling out more?  It depends on how much more.  He may improve some, from rolling out some more.

I didn't notice a single designed rollout last Thursday, although I may have missed one while cringing, I guess ;). Each of the other games this year had at least one (including one naked bootleg that Tannehill ran for 10 yards, IIRC). So we didn't exactly hit league average in the most recent game...

Different teams would, of course, have a different ideal number of rollouts. The better the offensive line, the lower the ideal. The worse the quarterback is when rolling out, the lower the ideal. The less capable the quarterback is of taking off himself, the lower the ideal.

The Dolphins have a horrible offensive line, particularly last Thursday with all the injuries, a quarterback who is very good when rolling out, and a quarterback who is quite capable of running the ball himself. ALL of that points to an ideal number of rollouts that is ABOVE league average.

I would also like to point out that the threat of a rollout forces the defense to take that into account, thus opening up other plays (at least a bit).

As I pointed out explicitly, I would of course not want Tannehill to roll out on every single play.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dave Gray on October 03, 2016, 10:20:39 am
Tannehill is not mobile and he has no pocket presence at all.

1) I disagree that Tannehill is not mobile.  (I mean...the guy is a converted WR...of course he's mobile.)
2) If he has no pocket presence, it's specifically WHY you would call for more rollouts.

I like rollouts, because it gives the QB options.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Run Ricky Run on October 03, 2016, 10:30:29 am
Calling more rollouts is a bandage and not a long term fix. It may work in the near term until defenses adjust and we would still be stuck w a qb who has no pocket presence.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dave Gray on October 03, 2016, 10:43:05 am
^ Everything in the NFL is a bandage, in terms of play-calling.  You call plays that help you win with the guys that you have, taking advantage of the guys you're playing against.  If you need more talent, go get it in the off-season, and then call plays that fit those guys next time.

It appears that we cannot block and create a passing pocket.  We cannot apply forward push to keep D-linemen's hands down.  Therefore, we cut off passing lanes.  With those restrictions, our QB is going to get sacked 5 times a game and get 5 balls batted down.  You can't win in the NFL with 10 offense plays that don't even have a chance from the start.  They are drive killers.

So, adjust with what you have. 


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: CF DolFan on October 03, 2016, 10:52:07 am
^ Everything in the NFL is a bandage, in terms of play-calling.  You call plays that help you win with the guys that you have, taking advantage of the guys you're playing against.  If you need more talent, go get it in the off-season, and then call plays that fit those guys next time.

It appears that we cannot block and create a passing pocket.  We cannot apply forward push to keep D-linemen's hands down.  Therefore, we cut off passing lanes.  With those restrictions, our QB is going to get sacked 5 times a game and get 5 balls batted down.  You can't win in the NFL with 10 offense plays that don't even have a chance from the start.  They are drive killers.

So, adjust with what you have. 
That's what the good coaches do ala Bellichick. Others lack coaching abilities and go down trying to do "their" thing no matter what. 


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Spider-Dan on October 03, 2016, 11:47:13 am
Calling more rollouts is a bandage and not a long term fix. It may work in the near term until defenses adjust and we would still be stuck w a qb who has no pocket presence.
On passing plays last season, Russell Wilson rolled out over 4 times more often Tannehill did.  Is that also a "bandage" by the SEA coaching staff?


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dave Gray on October 03, 2016, 11:54:04 am
I don't think Wilson is a great QB.  He's good, but they just use him correctly and allow him to scramble and buy time.  We want Tanny to be a pocket passer so much, that it seems that we don't care that there's not a pocket to pass in.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: masterfins on October 03, 2016, 01:01:48 pm
The point I'm making is that rolling out QBs is something rarely done in the NFL, and there is a reason for that. 

Yeah and the reason is that a QB is more likely to be injured rolling out.  High school and college teams do a lot of rollouts and option running plays with the QB's because they don't have the monetary investment in QB's that Pro teams do.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: fyo on October 03, 2016, 01:12:11 pm
Yeah and the reason is that a QB is more likely to be injured rolling out.  High school and college teams do a lot of rollouts and option running plays with the QB's because they don't have the monetary investment in QB's that Pro teams do.

Quarterbacks are certainly more likely to be injured when running, but I'm not willing to concede that rollouts are more dangerous in and of themselves (without data).


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dolfanalyst on October 03, 2016, 01:54:24 pm
1) I disagree that Tannehill is not mobile.  (I mean...the guy is a converted WR...of course he's mobile.)
2) If he has no pocket presence, it's specifically WHY you would call for more rollouts.

I like rollouts, because it gives the QB options.

The QB has those same options on every pass play, without restricting the passing options to only half the field.

Normally safeties (and linebackers when they drop into coverage) sit back and read the quarterback's eyes.  When the QB rolls out, those defenders head the same way he does, knowing they don't have to defend the other half of the field.  The QB can't possibly make a throw well downfield, from one sideline to the other, on the run, with any accuracy.

The passing target options, if there are any on that other side of the field, are now gone, too.  So now you have more defenders on the side of the field the QB can throw to, covering fewer targets.  We're looking at something here that's successful simply because it's used so infrequently.  Wanting it to be used a great deal more frequently is asking it to lose its effectiveness.

Really it should tell us something about Ryan Tannehill's ability as an NFL QB when we're wondering how much better he would do by doing something rarely done in the NFL.

Again, however, even I think he would do better by rolling out more, but I harbor no illusions that rolling out more is the difference between where he is and what's needed from a QB to be highly competitive in the NFL.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dave Gray on October 03, 2016, 02:04:43 pm
Again, however, even I think he would do better by rolling out more, but I harbor no illusions that rolling out more is the difference between where he is and what's needed from a QB to be highly competitive in the NFL.

You're answering a question that isn't being asked.  Whether or not Tannehill is or is not a good long-term QB option doesn't matter, in the realm of discussing rollouts.  He is your QB at this point and you have to call plays with whatever personnel to help you win from game to game.

If rollouts give you a better chance of being successful, do it -- future QB discussions be damned.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dolfanalyst on October 03, 2016, 02:09:48 pm
You're answering a question that isn't being asked.  Whether or not Tannehill is or is not a good long-term QB option doesn't matter, in the realm of discussing rollouts.  He is your QB at this point and you have to call plays with whatever personnel to help you win from game to game.

If rollouts give you a better chance of being successful, do it -- future QB discussions be damned.

Right, that's my own addition to the discussion, I know. And like I said, I'd like to see him roll out more too, for exactly the reasons you mentioned.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on October 05, 2016, 11:40:25 pm
I find it a little funny that back in January 2013 I said that Tannehill in some regards reminded me of David Woodley because of how often he chose to leave the pocket/run and his bouts of inacurracy.

For the good part of the last three years to me it's been pretty clear that he has been coached to try and stick in the pocket as long as possible to aid his development as a passer. Sometimes it seems to have paid off when he is making progressions in the pocket and great accurate throws, while on the other hand it also seems at times it has gotten him mugged enough to the point where he is jumpy and making some poor decisions.

If Tannehill is getting hit too much I think it's time to let him run, if that means more designed rollouts then so be it. That said, at least for the first three games I thought Albert & Tunsil did a pretty good job of protecting his blind side, so all of the hits and pressures he should have seen coming his way.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Dolfanalyst on October 06, 2016, 01:01:18 am
I find it a little funny that back in January 2013 I said that Tannehill in some regards reminded me of David Woodley because of how often he chose to leave the pocket/run and his bouts of inacurracy.

For the good part of the last three years to me it's been pretty clear that he has been coached to try and stick in the pocket as long as possible to aid his development as a passer. Sometimes it seems to have paid off when he is making progressions in the pocket and great accurate throws, while on the other hand it also seems at times it has gotten him mugged enough to the point where he is jumpy and making some poor decisions.

If Tannehill is getting hit too much I think it's time to let him run, if that means more designed rollouts then so be it. That said, at least for the first three games I thought Albert & Tunsil did a pretty good job of protecting his blind side, so all of the hits and pressures he should have seen coming his way.

My take on the Tannehill situation is a bit different, in that it seems to me that he's relatively incapable of surveying his targets and surveying the pass rush simultaneously.

So when he's surveying his targets, which he's supposed to do, he's much more susceptible to pressure than the average QB because he isn't surveying the pass rush at the same time.  It's almost as if he lacks peripheral vision.

And that was rather generous on my part.  If I were to put it bluntly, I'd say he's more susceptible to pressure than almost all QBs, because when I watch even the average college QB, they seem much better at "multi-tasking" in this way.

So, to apply this to your theory above, it wouldn't really matter if he had been coached to stay in the pocket, because he would have to be coached to do the opposite -- i.e., run immediately (or, ironically, "roll out") -- to overcome this problem.

Certainly he isn't being coached to "stay in the pocket and be oblivious to pressure," yet it seems that's what he's doing, due to this deficiency on his part.

I think he's also poor at situational awareness and anticipating pressure.  For example, in down and distance situations in which there is likely to be increased pressure, he seems to have no more an impetus to move from the pocket more quickly after the snap.  It's as if he's treating a down and distance situation in which there is likely to be a heavy pass rush, as a down and distance situation in which there is likely to be a light pass rush.

So, when you combine poor anticipation of pressure, with poor awareness and evasion of pressure, you have someone who is extremely susceptible to pressure and really isn't playing the quarterback position the way it's supposed to be played.  You have someone with an arm and that's about it.

Tannehill to me is like the equivalent of putting a track star at wide receiver.  The track star has only one trait that's valuable at the wide receiver position -- speed.  Likewise, Tannehill has but one trait that's valuable at the quarterback position -- an arm.

Playing the quarterback position well requires a much bigger repertoire of skills.  An arm alone won't cut it.

Notice this discussion was started by someone who wants him to "roll out more."  Why?  Because that solves the problem of Tannehill's I'm alluding to above.  If he rolls out immediately, he no longer has to survey his targets and the pass rush simultaneously.  He's now free of the pass rush and can survey his targets exclusively.

But, that comes at a high cost, as I've said previously in the thread.


Title: Re: For those of you calling for more rollouts....
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on October 13, 2016, 11:16:26 pm
My take on the Tannehill situation is a bit different, in that it seems to me that he's relatively incapable of surveying his targets and surveying the pass rush simultaneously.

So when he's surveying his targets, which he's supposed to do, he's much more susceptible to pressure than the average QB because he isn't surveying the pass rush at the same time.  It's almost as if he lacks peripheral vision.

And that was rather generous on my part.  If I were to put it bluntly, I'd say he's more susceptible to pressure than almost all QBs, because when I watch even the average college QB, they seem much better at "multi-tasking" in this way.

Really interesting observations, especially with what I saw in the Patriots game where I could finally look at some different camera angles in the replays. The occasions where I could see him surveying multiple targets was when he had little pressure, typically a three man rush. The first sign of a blitz all that seemed to evaporate along with his confidence, even at times when I still thought he had reasonable time in the pocket  :-\