The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

You can debate forever whether this was a good move but only time will tell. There are reasons to like this trade and reason why not to like it. For me I have concern over his personal relationships but his former teammates in Arizona seem to squash that. Either way we get to audition him at a reasonable price and still have leverage to draft whoever we want next year. This draft was never about making the team good enough to compete at a high level next year and I think Grier did well with what he had. At least Rosen gives us good reason to watch next season. I'm just hoping our O-line doesn't get him killed before we know one way or the other.

Agreed, he has the talent to be a franchise QB but his attitude was very poor. Hopefully, this humbled him.

My main and really only concern is that we need a 100% answer on him by next year's draft. It is a loaded QB draft even beyond Tua, so we need to know if he is the real deal or not and that will be hard to do with so little talent around him. I don't want to have question marks about him, draft a QB with a Top 5 pick and then Rosen has a breakthrough and we just wasted a high first rounder on a backup who won't ever see the field. Rebuilding teams can't waste premium picks like that.

I know it sounds silly to say "I sure don't want 2 franchise QBs on the roster" but what the hell are you going to do with a guy like Tua if he never sees the field?

I think Rosen has been a victim of a narrative being set early on that he had a poor attitude and then the media selectively taking sound bites to reinforce that narrative.

Also if Mia is drafting in twenties they don't need to draft a QB next year.  If Mia has a top 5 pick that they use to draft a QB then Mia doesn't have a QB controversy.     
 

My worry is that Rosen shows just enough to get another shot at starting and we don't draft a QB and then he is a complete failure in 2020 with a much better supporting cast and we just screwed ourselves.

Also, if Miami picks in the 20's then a miracle occurred and records were set. "Team with the most UDFA to win 9 games in a season".

This. I was dreading next year, but now I at least have a reason to watch. Might still need to end up taking a QB in the 1st round next year, but at least now there's a potential option rather than it being a foregone conclusion.

I think our staff is competent enough to draft a QB if Rosen shows "just enough".  That QB can back him up, and Rosen can have another season to show if he's the real deal with a better team.  Can always trade him or the guy we draft if it comes to that.  Regardless, I'm going to bank on Rosen for the time being, and revisit the 2020 QB issue once this coming season is over.  No point in speculation right now.

If that's the worst problem the Dolphins have I'd be happy. I think you are worried about nothing.

I think that is the 1946 Cleveland Browns.  They signed 4 UDFAs that went on the get gold jackets. 

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They also won the AAFC championship game. 

Well ... if we do not draft Tua next year the 2021 draft might have an even better option. hahahaa

Yeah, but that will require a 1-15 season. With the cap space and draft pick haul, that seems quite unlikely.

The way we're trading draft picks, we'll have 30 picks come 2021, we can trade up for whoever we want! /s

Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Dan Marino and
Joe Montana would like to remind you that you don't need a top 10 pick to draft a franchise QB
Kurt Warner and
Tony Romo add nor do you even need a draft pick.  

Mark Sanchez
Ryan Leaf and
JaMarcus Russel also mention that a high draft pick doesn't guarantee success either.  

Rosen would also like to remind you that you don't even need to be on the team that drafted you top 10.  Oh yeah, also Brett Favre and Steve Young.

(revisit this in a couple years, you know it'll be true)

Yes, but for a franchise that went so long without using a 1st rounder on a QB but wasted an ungodly amount of draft picks on them via trade, using your best pick on one is a good idea if it seems like the obvious choice.

I will never forget The Age of Sage.

I think this was one of the best trades I've seen in a while.  Just as a recap, the net trade was:

MIA gives NO a 2019 2nd (pick 48) and a 2019 4th (pick 116)
MIA gives AZ a 2020 5th

NO gives MIA a 2019 6th (pick 202) and a 2020 2nd
AZ gives MIA Josh Rosen

If you take the median draft chart value of a 2020 2nd and 5th then do the math, MIA got Rosen for the equivalent of round 4 pick 102.   That is an absolute steal for a player drafted 10th a year ago.

Agreed. Arizona hurt their own position by drafting Murray before trading Rosen. As time goes by I am liking this a bit more, hopefully his attitude was just media nonsense and he can show something this year. Hope we have a great analytical department in-house because we shouldn't be making decisions about his on field stats because they will be GARBAGE this season. We are an AAF team with a nice stadium.

I am not sure if they needed to trade Rosen first, but they should have called teams earlier to gage interest.  Miami may have been the only team to due diligence on the trade in the weeks leading up to the draft.  Time is in short supply before the draft, most teams aren’t going to spend the time watching the game film to do due diligence with AZ saying we are keeping Rosen. 

You are forgetting the discount for future picks. Your calculation essentially has Miami's 2019 second rounder cancel out New Orleans' 2020 second rounder.

Outside the top half of the first round, the rule of thumb discount is about a round or 50% of the points value. So a 2019 3rd is valued about the same as a 2020 4th. It seems like the discount isn't as steep today as it used to be, though.

So we got Rosen for roughly the equivalent of a mid third round pick, not a high 4th.

As an example of this discount, look at the deal we did with the Vikings 3 years ago.

Miami got 2016/#86
Vikings got 2016/#186, 2017/3rd, 2017/4th with the condition that the 4th would be the lowest Dolphins pick in that round (including comp picks).

In classic trade chart value:

Miami got 160 "2016 points".
Vikings got 16.6 2016 points plus 187.5 + 44 "2017 points" (median 3rd round value plus last pick of 4th)

This works out to a future discount of 38%.

Josh Rosen met with Chad O'Shea today, his 4th Offensive Coordinator. Yes, 4TH offensive coordinator so far in his career. He had 3 last year in Arizona and he really had no shot. I always complain about how bad we screwed Tanny with O-Line play and constant OC changes but 3 in one season? Shit.

He did not have 3 OC's in one season.  He had two last season.  A new OC for OTAs this season with AZ was his third. 

I was initially thinking a 2nd round pick was too high but I think now it had to be done. It’s worth rolling the dice on.

Phinsider lied to me. Fake news.

They didn't like, you mis-stated and Hoodie split hairs.

I don’t know what they had on Phinsider, but the article I read had the headline 4th OC, but unless you read it very carefully you would think what you thought.

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