The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

This is why drafting Tua was the right call, whether he pans out or not. Talented QBs do not hit free agency unless they are in their late 30's/early 40s. Teams do not let them go because it's too valuable of a position.

he still has 2 years left on his original deal so he's signed for the next 12 years

It's the NFL so the guaranteed money is the real factor. I'm sure they can't cut bait within the next 5 years if something goes wrong, but I imagine around year 7 is when they can start to make an escape if his performance falls off a cliff.

No, it is only the right call if he works out.  If he sucks while Hebert shines than it will definitely be a wrong call.

Assuming it is a legit 12 year deal and not one that doesn’t have multiple outs. 

You cannot use the ultimate outcome to determine whether a decision was the correct choice at the time.  That's like saying JaMarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf should have went undrafted because of their careers.

edit: You can use the outcome, but you shouldn't use a comparison to how another player turns out, not should you use an outcome that was far outside the spectrum of expectations. IND drafting Russell Wilson instead of Andrew Luck would have been a dumb move, no matter how it turns out.

Even under that standard drafting a player with that much injury risk is a poor use of a high draft pick.  Tua's injury downside is worse than Newton.  Except with a higher cost.

Russell Wilson has a Super Bowl ring and would've had another if not for Pete Carroll's mismanagement of that final drive.   And he's still in the league.

Drafting him #1 overall would've been a dumb move though. 

1) A #5 overall pick is not "higher cost" than a #1 overall pick
2) Tua's upside is much higher than Newton's

Good for Mahomes.  He is a very rare talent and from the little I have heard about him personally, he seems like a pretty good dude as well. 

I was comparing Taus likelihood of unavailability because of injury Newton's in 2020 not the year be was drafted. 

Holy unintelligible sentence Batman!

450 mil .. shesh

Still don't know the guarantees. They are using vague language and saying he has $477 Million in "guaranteed mechanisms". There is no way on Earth they guaranteed him half a billion dollars, so I want to know what the contract is really worth.

Unless that total is in performance-based incentives (which seems unlikely for a MVP and SB MVP), "guaranteed" money doesn't matter.  If Mahomes finishes the 2031-32 season in a Chiefs uniform - at age 36, the same age Aaron Rodgers was last season - he'll get all that money, guaranteed or not.

I'm sure both sides will be very happy with that deal, but this is football and big injuries happen. He can pull an Andrew Luck or Chad Pennington and start to miss whole seasons. At that point, the Chiefs will look to see what is guaranteed and when they can cut bait.

ESPN has a pretty detailed review of the deal : https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29419411/is-patrick-mahomes-500-million-contract-actually-team-friendly-answering-eight-questions-chiefs-qb-deal

Only $140 million guaranteed - and for injury only. The rest (beyond 2022) is on a rolling guarantee, which is what the "guarantee mechanism" term refers to. Basically, his salary and bonuses are guaranteed 1-2 years in advance on a rolling schedule (1 year for the last half of the deal).

The deal is incredibly back-loaded. The first six years @ $183 million, the last six @ $320 million. The spike in 2027 is pretty staggering with nearly $60 million guaranteed if he's on the roster early in the 2026 league year. The Chiefs can chose to cut bait and run at that point (at the cost of the $30 million or so they already guaranteed for the 2026 season) or work out a new deal.

In that sense, it really is a six year, $222 million deal ('20-'25 @ $183 + '26 money = $37 million / year), since the Chiefs wouldn't be able to have the services of Mahomes in '25 without paying the '26 money - and having him play in '26 would require paying the massive '27 money.

Of course, it might just be that quarterback salaries keep on sky-rocketing and $60 million a year will seem just fine for the back half of the deal.

Thanks for the breakdown. I doubt he sees this all the way through, QB salaries will be reaching a bubble soon like the LT market, so in 7 years time they will probably ask him to restructure since they won't want to pay $55 Million a year for one position.

Then what do you use? All that leaves are opinions. How can you claim an opinion is the correct choice? That's like me saying being a Catholic is the right decision at the time. That means all you atheists are wrong because of my opinion.

Mahome's signing doesn't suggest that picking Tua was the right choice, it suggests picking a QB was the right choice. Big difference there. Hoodie nailed it.

I can go along with that, drafting a QB was the right choice. Tua being that QB is an opinion.

There were only 2 right choices at QB in this year's draft.

I doubt he'll see this money, having no idea the terms of the contract.

Usually these things exist to be renegotiated.  The Chiefs get a few years of him on the cheap, then a few years where he's going to make bank and the Chiefs will still have leftover talent.  ...then they'll lose players around him and either have to move him out or restructure his deal.

Meanwhile, he'll rake in a few years of huge salary and whatever guaranteed money is due. 

It's probably a good deal for both parties, if I had to guess.

The details are in the thread and it is heavily backloaded. Due to Corona, the cap may not rise and that could have repercussions on the future caps and make this a very lkely restructure for Mahomes. He will still get paid very well for the first 6-7 years though and he deserves it.

You justify the decision based on the information that was available to you at the time.  Tua's injury history is certainly meaningful data, and if his career is derailed due to persistent injury, that's a fair criticism to make.  But if Tua is healthy and fails to succeed because it turns out that he just doesn't have the talent and/or work ethic... well, that's not really information that was available at the time, and criticizing the pick on that basis is pure hindsight wizardry.

Based on the information available at the time drafting J Russell and R Leaf was brilliant.  It is only based on information post draft that the decisions seem moronic.   

I actually thought Jamarcus Russell was a moronic signing long before he went #1 overall... I saw an interview he did and decided that the guy was simply too stupid to make it as an NFL QB.

I did think that Leaf could make it in the NFL, but never even considered him a challenge to Peyton for the #1 overall pick that year. I had no idea about all the batshit crazy stuff going on inside his noggin.

Same here on the Russell thing.  As for Leaf and Manning, I remember reading an article once (wish I remember where so I could link it) where supposedly Leaf didn't want to get drafted by the Colts so he blew off the interview with them at the Combine and essentially just showed them his ass. 

One of the many things I like about Mahomes is that since his dad was an MLB pitcher, he is probably going to be less likely to get caught up in the novelty of fame and riches, etc.  Granted, all I know of him is what he shows to the public, but he seems like a really good kid with a good head on his shoulders. 

You might be able to justify not taking Russell #1.  But if he were somehow still available at #9 that year and the Dolphins didn't take him, there would have been pitchforks and torches outside of Dolphins HQ.

Possibly, but there would have been quite a few fans who would be dancing around their TV, celebrating Miami's good call...