The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I intend to discuss Miiami's playoff chances until they are eliminated.  They cannot be eliminated this weekend.  They cannot even be eliminated for the number one seed this weekend.

Important games this weekend.

Miami's game, obviously.  Getting to the bye week at 6-7 allows them to rest and gain momentum.

We want

The Texans to beat the Colts.  Miami loses the tiebreaker to Indianapolis
WFT to win against Las Vegas.
Kansas City to beat Denver

Not sure about the others.

I feel like locking this.

Wait until they are out

Half the league is 6-5 so we should wait 2 weeks to see what needs to be done.

I understand.  But please don't deny us the stress relieving laughter of reading upcoming D4L comments on this topic. 

So, if the Dolphins controlled their own destiny and didn't have to rely on like, 12 other teams to win or lose or tie, and the correct alignments of various celestial bodies, I'd be more excited about their chances.

Yeah, that's the issue. Winning out is actually not shocking, it's the watching what 8 other teams at 5-6 and 6-5 do that is the issue. Everyone is mediocre this year and that works against us. Winning out makes us 10-7 and that's the new 9-7.

If the Dolphins win out, they have an 88% of making the playoffs, however if they lose even one game they have only 7% chance of making the playoffs.  Yes, they'd still need help if they win out, but not as much as you'd think.

EDIT:  Unless they lose to only the Saints or only the Giants, then it's still a 19-21% chance at making the playoffs


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/miami-dolphins-nfl-playoff-picture.html#mia-nyg-13=win&mia-nyj-15=win&no-mia-16=loss&ten-mia-17=loss&mia-ne-18=win (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/miami-dolphins-nfl-playoff-picture.html#mia-nyg-13=win&mia-nyj-15=win&no-mia-16=loss&ten-mia-17=loss&mia-ne-18=win)

After watching Hill last night, losing to the Saints seems unlikely.

The biggets test is New England as they might be playing for the division or maybe even the Top Seed since no other powerhouses have really emerged.

I was laughing my ass off watching my FB thread with all those annoying ass Saints fans. Everytime Hill ran for a first down or leaped over someone FB would explode with all the nonsense about "playoffs" and how Hill should have been the QB all along.

Wait for it, wait for it, wait for it. Then the inevitable 2nd half implosion, just like I expected. Then bam, just like that, everyone turned on Hill's ass so quick I thought I woke up a month later during a different Saints game. Then, again just as I expected, the conspiracies about how "the NFL and Refs are out to get" the Saints. As a group, Saints fans are the worst fans in the league and are so predictable.

Even if Hill had a few wins and good games, that fucking scrub ain't no NFL QB. Payton is a clown and should have retired with Brees. He needs to be fired so they can start a proper rebuild. But then again, I love watching Saints fans go all nutty when they eventually get the rug pulled out from under them every year. IMO, the Saints don't have a QB problem, they have a head coach problem  

Theoreticaly the Dolphins could lose 3 more games and still make the playoffs if all the stars align.

His contract has to be some type of money laundering scam, there is no way that is legitimate.

They actually sound a lot like this board does with the Dolphins.  LOL    The Saints fan checked all the boxes of this board.  "He is great!"  5 minutes later......"That guy sucks" and at the end of the game...."Freaking refs cost us the game!"

Hell, that's most NFL fans. But I use to live around 3 hours from New Orleans and they are on another level with their stupidity. Not to mention all that "Who Dat" bullshit. There's only so much a man can take before he fucking snaps, LMAO. Anyhow, I don't live in that area anymore so I don't have to deal with it. I can mock them from afar on social media ;D

Oh I know.  I wasn't disagreeing with you by any means.  The Saints were kind of my NFC Team for quite a few years, but their fans sure made it hard to root for them, so I get what you are saying. 

Now I think we can have a realistic playoff discussion.  We want the chiefs tonight

The problem is so many teams are bottle necked in the middle that you root for them one week and need them to lose the next week. In Week 18, you might see teams either win the division or miss the playoffs.

Will 9-8 be enough?  Hard to say.

That's going to come down to the 9th tiebreaker since I imagine you will see many teams at 9-8 and probably many at 10-7.

No we can't.

It's not unrealistic for us to make the playoffs despite being a longshot, but look at this train wreck. Who do we root for? Seems like we have to wait at least 2 more weeks to make sense of it.

8   
Atlanta
   5-7   .417   3.5   .466   Lost 1
9   
Carolina
   5-7   .417   3.5   .502   Lost 2
10   
Minnesota
   5-7   .417   3.5   .512   Lost 2
11   
New Orleans
   5-7   .417   3.5   .522   Lost 5
12   
Miami
PHI
   6-7   .462   4.0   .478   Won 5
13   
Philadelphia
   6-7   .462   4.0   .478   Won 1
14   
Denver
   6-6   .500   4.5   .488   Lost 1
15   
Las Vegas
   6-6   .500   4.5   .534   Lost 1
16   
Cleveland
   6-6   .500   4.5   .537   Lost 1
17   
Indianapolis
PHI
   7-6   .538   5.0   .485   Won 1
18   
Pittsburgh
   6-5-1   .542   5.0   .530   Won 1
WILD CARD ROUND LOSERS
19   
San Francisco
MIA
   6-6   .500   4.5   .488   Lost 1
20   
Washington
   6-6   .500   4.5   .522   Won 4
21   
Cincinnati
   7-5   .583   5.5   .483   Lost 1
22   
LA Chargers
   7-5   .583   5.5   .520   Won 1

I agree. While it's nice that we aren't mathematically eliminated, it'll take the biggest comeback from 7 straight losses in NFL history to even have a chance.

It doesn't even matter if we get into the playoffs.  We run an offense consisting of 4 yard dumpoffs.  You have to make 20 plays to score a TD.  We max out at 20 points a week...there's no playoff run there.

^ I want the team to make the playoffs every year. Always better to make it than not to. Sometimes things just start clicking and you win some games you maybe shouldn't have and suddenly you're in the big game. I also think it would be valuable experience for the players and coaches.

Normally, I would rather us miss the playoffs and get a better draft pick rather than go 9-7 and lose by 60 in the 1st round, but we don't have a draft pick this year and we need to start improving and showing results so I'll take a first round beating.

FWIW, the only way we win is to win 9 in a row and in that case, we really shouldn't be an easy victory for another team. The way the AFC is this year, at 10-7 we might be the 5th seed and play the 4 seed. I don't think we win out but it's nice to still think about after that 1-7 start.

What team would want to play another team that has won 9 in a row?  It doesn't get hotter than that.  Sometimes a team with momentum is better than a team that is all around better.  Ask the Giants.

Just to reiterate that I don't think we are making the playoffs or a deep playopff run, but 2021 is weird for football. There are truly no powerhouses that I think would steamroll us. Sure, better teams but there are no 14-2 juggernauts this year in the AFC. The top seed looks like they will be 12-5 at best and that will be the Henryless Titans, the Pats led by a rookie QB or the Chiefs who have been as unimpressive as they have been in years. They're all better than us but not 20 point favorites.

I have to disagree there.  First, 20-point favorites are extremely rare in the NFL, and in fact there has never been a 20-point favorite in the history of NFL playoff football (dating back to 1978).  Second, this Dolphins team is getting by right now primarily by beating poor competition with poor opposing quarterbacks, the win against Baltimore notwithstanding.  They'd very likely be heavy underdogs against the best teams in the AFC in the playoffs, even Baltimore who they previously beat.  And that's heavy by NFL playoff standards, where an 8 or more point spread for example is large.

Obviously what's happening now for this team is far better than what was happening just six weeks ago, but they remain in no shape to contend with the best teams in the conference, especially on the road.  They may be winning, but they aren't doing it in a way that suggests they can contend with the best teams in the conference.  Win percentage over small samples of games can be deceiving.

They already beat two of the top 3 teams in the AFC (BAL, NE), and wouldn't be surprised if the they beat the the Titans later this year, thus beating the top 3 teams in the AFC currently.  If they win out, that means they've beaten the best team in the AFC twice, the second best team (TEN) and the third best team (BAL).  IMO they already have contended with the best teams in the conference.

What does it tell you however that they would be significant underdogs against those teams tomorrow, even at home?

It would tell me they're being judged from a 7 game losing streak, which wouldn't have been 7 games if Tua was playing, and being last in the hunt for a playoff spot

I would like to think that as well, but Vegas isn't doing that poor a job of handicapping teams.  There is too much at stake.

Unless the Dolphins go 10-7 their chances are REALLY low and even at 10-7 the odds aren't with us...so the only real question is will the Dolphins go 10-7? I doubt it. I have no doubt they can win 2 maybe 3 of the remaining games but all 4? Really unlikely in my opinion and I'm not just saying that because we play Buffalo in week 18. There's a good chance that we win that game at home in my opinion but there's also a good chance that we lose one of the other remaining 3 games. Don't write off any of those teams. The Jets are playing spoiler and they would like nothing more than to spoil Miami's comeback bid for a playoff shot. The Saints have not been playing well, but they can turn it around at anypoint. Tennessee and Buffalo are 2 tough opponents that will be looking to ensure their own playoff spot. All in all I think it's very likely the Dolphins lose at least 1 of the last 4 games if not more. The win streak has been nice, but it's about to end.

Have you been reading this thread?  The odds are with us at 10-7, 88-89% chance to make the playoffs.  Also, we play the Patriots week 18, not Buffalo, they already swept us.  

Bye, Jets, Saints, Titans (with no Henry), Patriots.  All very winnable games with the Patriots being the toughest.  It'll probably come down to that game.

My bad about the last week, you're right it's the Patriots not the Bills, but no way I believe that that Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs at 10-7. Who's saying that? Based on what? Even at 10-7 we will most likely be tied with several other teams and I can't imagine that all the tie-breakers fall our way. Surely it could, but it's not likely in my opinion. Maybe the odds are 50-50 if we finish 10-7.

Just looking at the NFL playoff machine if the team with the better record wins all the remaining games except for Miami who goes 4-0 Miami still doesn't make the playoffs. They would be tied with Buffalo and Cincinati at 10-7 and lose the tie breaker and not make the playoffs. Don't know how anyone is saying if they go 4-0 their chances are 88% to make the playoffs.

If we win out, our conference record is 7-5. I don't know tiebreakers beyond that. The AFC West plays each other a lot to end the year so they might eliminated each other a bit, makes it very hard to root for anyone right now aside from whoever plays Buffalo.

I just think it's too little too late. They needed this fire under their asses two months ago. At least San Fran is playing badly.

Yeah, probably is. I mean, we can beat the Jets and Saints and perhaps the Titans but the Pats in Foxboro when they will likely be playing for the #1 seed, division or playoff berth themselves? That's a pretty daunting task. At least we have time to heal up during the bye week so Will Fuller will only miss 4 games instead of 5.

Also in the thread, scroll up.  NYT has a playoff scenario generator.

I can't read the article.  There's no way the Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs even if they finish 10-7. As I said if the teams with the better record win their remaining games then even if the Dolphins finish 10-7 they won't make the playoffs (see below). How does that even remotely translate to a nearly 90% chance? Either they did something wrong or they sure have a strange way of calculating chances when one of the most likely scenario's doesn't even get them into the playoffs. I'm not sure what the tie breaker is that prevents Miami from making the playoffs, but they don't.

1) Kansas City at 13-4
2) New England 12-5
3) Tennessee 12-5
4) Baltimore 12-5
5) Los Angeles 11-6
6) Cincy 10-7
7) Buffalo 10-7

And it's certainly not the ONLY scenario where they don't get in, there are plenty more for instance Indy can get in even with Miami finishing 10-7 if everything below is the same except Indy beats New England and then Buffalo and Miami are out on tie breakers. In that case it would be..

1) Kansas City at 13-4
2) Tennessee 12-5
3) Baltimore 12-5
4) New England 11-6
5) Los Angeles 11-6
6) Indy 10-7
7) Cincy 10-7

There's another scenario where the Raiders get hot and go 4-1 and make the playoffs and Miami is out, not that likely but still a chance. Same for Cleveland. Something's not right with that 88% chance.

Last game is in Miami

Okay well I provided a source that shows differently.  Unless you've got one that supports your stance, don't take offense when I say what you think doesn't really matter.

I'm using this and just playing around with the thing. You can come up with a bunch of different scenario's that are pretty easy to imagine where a 10-7 Miami team is not in the playoffs. Yes, there are some where they can make it in as well, but they are not the most likely scenario's so I fail to see how they could possibly be projected to be a near lock to make it in if they make it to 10-7.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

We want BUF winning AFCE

Depends on what happens tonight. If Buffalo loses tonight I think our best chance is for New England to win the AFCE to give Miami a shot at one of the Wild Cards and Buffalo to be out of the playoffs. That could happen as Buffalo has a tough schedule playing New England home and away @Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and the Jets. If they lose to Tampa, New England twice and Carolina they will finish 9-8. That might be more likely than the Patriots losing twice to Buffalo, Indy and the Dolphins to go 9-8. After tonight's game it gets a little clearer who the Dolphins want to win the AFCE. It is still possible for Miami to win the AFCE but Buffalo would need to lose a couple of games they should win and split with the Patriots.

Yes, that's what I would assume for our best chance to sneak into the playoffs and get blown up in the first round.

We are going to lose to the Jets in 2 weeks by 37 points and lock this thread.

1) Everybody please reread my vocal exercise thread.  Some of you need a reminder.

2) Even if they lose to the Jets, they are not out, so, no the thread will not be locked.    

So many of the contenders play each other that it is so confusing.

NYT runs 20k simulations, and you can add more (I went up to 100k simulations), and since the Pats won last night that number is around 84%.

Another website showing if we win our remaining games we are more likely to make the playoffs then miss them, it shows us at 79% if we we win out to make the playoffs:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/dolphinswhatif.html (http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/dolphinswhatif.html)

Speaking of playoffs, how epic would a Bucs vs patriots Superbowl be?

Bucs looking to repeat.  NE going for #7.  Brady going for #8.  Brady vs Belichick.  Brady vs his replacement (Mac). The storylines are endless.

While they both would want to win, it would be proof that neither was the lone reason for success.

That has already been established.

Bellicheck has a garbage record without Brady, nothing has been established.  We'll see how far NE can get, I think they're frauds tbh.

11-5 the year Brady got hurt and last year can be chalked up to Cam Newton sucking.

https://sports.nbcsports.com/2021/10/03/buccaneers-vs-patriots-what-is-bill-belichicks-record-without-tom-brady/ (https://sports.nbcsports.com/2021/10/03/buccaneers-vs-patriots-what-is-bill-belichicks-record-without-tom-brady/)

His record without Tom Brady just a few weeks back was 62-74...garbage

Highly unlikely any team could achieve a 20-year dynasty in an era of football geared around parity among teams without having both the greatest head coach and the greatest QB of all time.

Dude is not the greatest head coach of all time.  He's coached one HoF QB.  Shula coached 3, has more wins atm and the perfect season.

Shula>coattail riding cheater

If he was riding Brady's coattails, why did the Patriots win 6 out of the 10 playoff games in which Brady threw at least two interceptions?  And how did they win so many playoff games in which Brady performed poorly?

A Dolphin fan wouldn't know that, you know who would?











A PATRIOTS FAN!

Or maybe somebody who has done research to show why it isn't fair to compare Marino to Brady by Super Bowl rings?  Who would do that?

Or maybe somebody who thinks Tom Brady is the most overrated athlete in the history of sports?

Or......

A DOLPHINS FAN!!!!


Who wouldn't respond to my point?

Well, I don't know the word for that

OK, I see the problem here. This is assuming that ALL scenario's are equal. Problem is that all scenario's are NOT equal. Obviously it's much MORE likely that teams with a winning record are going to win against teams with a losing record. Sure, technically 80% of ALL outcomes Miami makes the playoffs if they go 10-7, but MOST of those outcomes are HIGHLY unlikely where good teams lose to bad teams etc. That's doesn't mean that Miami has an 80% chance of making the playoffs that means that out of ALL the screnario's that could play out 80% of those result in Miami making the playoffs, but about half of those scenario's are so utterly UNLIKELY they are not worth consideration. If you assume that EVERY team has a 50/50 chance of winning any game then it would be accurate, but do you think there's a 50/50 chance of the Jets winning @ Buffalo in week 18? No there's more like a 1 in 5 chance of that happening. When you look at the most LIKELY to happen scenario's then Miami doesn't make the playoffs in most of THOSE scenario's. Sure they have 80% chance to make the playoffs if winning a game is based on a coin flip. Unfortunately for Miami games are NOT decided by a coin flip and some outcomes are decidely more likely to occur than others and the ones that are most likely to occur don't include Miami in the playoffs.

To further illustrate this then just assume that the HOME team wins every game the rest of the way out except for Miami who wins all of their games. In THAT scenario Miami makes the playoffs, but is that a good assumption? Hell no! Obviously it helps if you play at home, but it doesn't guarantee a win. When you go by record of all the games remaining except for Miami who wins all of their games then Miami doesn't make the playoffs. Which is more likely that all the HOME teams will win out or the all the teams with a better record will win out? I think that's pretty obvious. Those scenario's are NOT equally likely.

I'd estimate the chances that Miami makes the playoffs if they go 10-7 to be 50% if even that high when you actually try to predict outcomes of game based on the teams playing and where.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2021/patriots-dominate-weighted-dvoa?utm_source=CCM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=eNews_Tues

^ 5% chance to make the postseason. Yeah, that feels about right. Maybe even a tad optimistic.

The most likely outcome is that in two weeks, MIA's playoff chances will either be a lot higher, or they'll be zero.  So maybe just wait.

Actually Miami's chances don't change much unless they win out and that may not even change much depending upon how the other teams around .500 do. If a couple of other teams fall out of contention then Miam's chances will go up significantly but if not they may still be pretty small even if Miami wins out. Most likely Miami will need help in week 18 even if they win out.

Steelers getting spanked by the Vikings right now. That helps us in the playoff race and ever so slightly helps us in the draft pick race cause maybe they leapfrog the Niners for the playoffs. NFC is so tragic so it's doubtful.

Epic 4th quarter

Yeah, I missed it. I'm the guy who saw that the game was theoretically over in the first half. Another one of those lousy Thursday night games. I'll do something else. Missed the whole damn thing.  Does this Pitt loss mean anything for Miami?

Down by 29 and came back to make a game of it...yeah, definitely worth staying up for.

Thursday night football needs to go.   It messes up everyone's practice schedule.   They should only do opening night and Thanksgiving.

I disagree, I love having football to watch on Thursday.

The problem is that the games are usually trash, with one team being blown out. Seems to be the team dealing with injuries and or having to travel the most.

IDK that Ravens Dolphins game about a month ago was pretty awesome.  The game last night was pretty good as well.  Packers/Cardinals was good.  Rams/Seahawks.  Giants/WFT.  There have been a few good Thursday night games this season.

What do we want this weekend in terms of results?

Baltimore
Kansas City
Giants
Lions
Tampa Bay
Niners (feel dirty about that one)

It's time for the division leaders to pull away and beat up on the 6-6 and 7-5 teams.

It may feel that way, but the difference in scoring, winning margin etc are not different to a statistically significant degree for TNF compared to other game days. And the quality of teams is at least as good as average.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2021/05/thursday-night-football-better-than-you-think/

I think the problem with TNF is that there's only one game and unless your team is playing, it's just an *average* game.

I'm not going to single out TNF. But from what I've seen can remember this year, the night games are seem to come down to the last few minutes of the game. In fact I've caught myself thinking that it was orchestrated by the league for ratings for the night games. I'm not saying that's actually happening, but it wouldn't surprise me.

I watch all the night games, to me they seem to be more entertaining for some reason.

Yep. There's a good chance that there's at least 1 if not 2 10-7 teams that make the AFC playoffs, so if the Dolphins have any kind of chance it's to win out and hope that a few other teams above them currently in the wild card race lose a couple games they probably shouldn't like the Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Then watch college football.   Thursday night is usually college night.

I think that's close, but not quite it.

The analysis you cited compares TNF to all other games, but that's a bad comparison; on the 2-3 Sunday day games each market receives, viewers see either their home team or the best available game that network has in that timeslot, while SNF will - almost by definition - have no worse than the third-best game that week.  So unless you live in the Jacksonville or Houston media markets, you will not see JAX @ HOU on a Sunday... but you WILL see it on a Thursday.

The more meaningful comparison would be TNF to MNF... but that comparison isn't offered.  Furthermore, MNF was famously moved off of broadcast TV and over to cable because people were sick of how bad the offerings ended up being in the post-parity NFL era.

Miami has a semi-decent shot at 3-1 in the next four games.  They have a very long shot at 4-0.

Is 9-8 going to be enough?  That's the question we should be discussing

We got a Chiefs win.  Huge chance missed with Robbie Gould

What a clusterfuck

8 teams are between 7-6 and 6-7 for the final two wildcard spots

This is what we were talking about earlier in this thread, you don't even know who to root for this week and probably not next week either. With 2 games left it will become clearer.

The Falcons are picking 9th right now. They are one win away from being in the playoffs. What the hell is going on this year?

Don't worry about stuff like this.  By the end of the year, once a few more games have been played, all these weird situations will work themselves out.

This is great for the NFL. The more fan bases still watching, the better.

I'm not worried at the games from week to week because none of this matters to us unless we win out. However, I do feel we will be going into some very deep tiebreakers when it's all said and done because I see 5 teams with identical records for the last 2 spots.

There is no way Miami makes the playoffs.  Far too many teams in front of them to pass all of them.  Sure they could move closer to be on the edge, but I predict after two more games they will be eliminated even if they win their next two games.

I don't know if that is mathematically possible.  They cannot be eliminated this weekend even if they lose, so if they win, they should still not be able to be eliminated next weekend.     

None of this matters unless we are 10-7. That being said, at this point it would take a NASA scientist to figure out the tiebreakers. If we do finish 10-7, maybe we get in because we have the best point differential on similar road games or some nonsense like that.

They can still get in at 9-8, which is the more likely scenario.  Winning the next four games is virtually impossible

If they're 9-8 they won't make the playoffs.  If they're 10-7 they have 85% of making the playoffs.  It's that simple no matter how much anyone wants to naysay it.

I don't even think it's "85%" at 10-7.
Yet.

I don't believe it's 85% either but it's getting better as the Bills, Steelers, Raiders and Bengals losses this past week all helped Miami's chances whereas Cleveland and Denver were the only teams that improved their chances. They need for those teams that are in the wildcard hunt with Miami to continue to lose. The good news is that if Miami wins out and all the other teams with a better record than their opponent win out and Cincy beats Cleveland or they tie, Miami will make the playoffs as the 7th seed which wasn't true last week. The bad news with that scenario is that Miami would then have to travel to New England in the wild card weekend after just beating them at home. Not a good scenario for winning our first playoff game in forever.

Facts:

1) Miami cannot be eliminated this weekend no matter what

2) Miami definitely wants KC to win on Thursday.  They want NE to beat the Colts on Saturday.

Not sure about the others.

The CLE/LV game is mind-boggling who they want to win.

3) Miami loses head to head tiebreakers against Buffalo, Indy, and LV

4) That missed PI call in the endzone week three is looming very large right now.

Forget missed calls, we lost to the fucking Jaguars. We would be good right now if Flores didn't have his team quit on him for over a month straight.

The Jets game will NOT be a gimme.

BTW, is it possible to watch football on cbs on an iphone 12?

They probably want the Raiders to beat Cleveland on Saturday as well as the Raiders have a very tough road to the playoffs, Cleveland's chances of being 10-7 are much better.

Mayfield is out with Covid so I guess that helps the Raiders?

Waddle on the Covid list now too so we can probably lock this thread after Sunday.

No, because they will still be in contention.

No, they won't be mathemtaically eliminated but it's over. Beating the Titans and Pats was already a hard task, but maxing out at 9-8 is the nail in the coffin.

I think you're crazy if you think Waddle is the reason we can't beat the Jets.  Your negative attitude doesn't jive with our 5 and soon to be 6 game winning streak.

If you're willing to put in the work to find the links, NFL games stream by lesser than legal means all the time and can be viewed on an iPhone.

If he has Verizon as his cell phone carrier, he can watch the games live and legally in the NFL app.   Unfortunately the app blocks being streamed to a TV.

Aren't CBS games available on Paramount+?

I have xfinity

Go Chiefs tonight

Raiders vs. Browns has been postponed.  Not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing for Miami

This is great stuff:

https://youtu.be/OWFH_hLdWIk

It looks worse than I thought.

Not sure why we can't fucking tackle today ???

Good video.

Colts and Steelers with the upsets are hurting us. I would be very surprised if we go 10-7 at this point, but if we do I don't think that will be enough.

I think our only chance of making the playoffs is to go 10-7 however I don't think that's as unlikely as I thought it was a couple weeks ago. I think all the teams that we play here on out are showing signs of being vulnerable. Tennessee isn't the same team without the power running game. New England is still trying to figure out their identity a bit, good defense but are they a running team or a throwing team? The Saints have been up and down all year. Miami has been playing better of late and they should at least be in all 3 games although winning all 3 will be a tough task. If they could get completely healthy though which I think they are close to doing, that could be the difference in those games. They are gonna need for everyone to be healthy the last 3 games, but if that happens, they have a legitimate shot of doing it. If they go 10-7 and don't make the playoffs I'll be disappointed, but I'll be encouraged going into next year.

Who do we even want tomorrow?  I can't figure it out

Who do want we want next week to win?  I can't figure that out

We got some breaks with Baltimore and Denver losing

Ten teams are now between 8-6 and 7-7 for the last four playoff spots

In theory, Miami can still get the number one seed.

In reality, we are now Chiefs fans the rest of the way.   

We want Buffalo to beat New England next week as we will own the tie-breaker with New England if we both finish 10-7. Beyond that there's so many things that can happen in the last 3 weeks that it's hard to determine what you want to happen. I still only see Miami making the playoffs if they win out and even then they are gonna need the right combination of wins/losses by other teams. If Miami wins the next 2 games then you'll know who to root for/against week 18 to give them a shot. It's possible that if they win in week 18 they are in, but basically every game has to fall their way the next 2 weeks which is unlikely so they'll need help from some other teams in week 18.

The best chance in my opinion of Miami making the playoffs is for them to win out and Buffalo to beat New England next week. Miami will be 10-7 and wins the tie-breaker with a 10-7 New England in that scenario. If that happens and the team with the better record wins every other game Miami makes the playoffs.

Edit: Saw this on Reddit and thought I would share. Miami makes the playoffs if the following occurs no matter what else happens. This is probably the "best" scenario for Miami in the coming weeks as the most unlikely thing is the Dolphins winning out.

Phins win out.
Next week...Bills beat Pats...KC beats Pitt...Bengals beat Ravens.
Weeky 17...KC beats Bengals

LV 6-7

Cle  Den  Indy  LA

CLE 7-6

LV  GB  PIT  CIN

DEN 7-7

LV LA  KC

LA 8-6

Hou  Den  LV

Now to figure out who to root for tonight.

I can't figure it out.

Can anybody else?

None of these teams games really matter that much because if we win out (which is the ONLY way we are getting into the playoffs) unless these teams do as well, we will finish higher in the standings. All you really need to root for is them to lose at least 1 game. Doesn't matter which one.

This team could finish tied with Miami even if they lose a game, but if Buffalo beats New England next week and we beat New England in week 18 we have a better chance of making the playoffs than New England does at 10-7, so if you want to root for a game, root for Buffalo to beat New England next week. That will help Miami's chances considerably more than worrying about what Cleveland does.

The thing is in ALL of these scenario's the MOST likely thing NOT to happen is Miami winning out, so rooting against these other teams to lose really doesn't much matter. If Miami wins out they'll have a pretty good shot of making the playoffs, if they don't they have zero chance.

There could conceivably be a three way tie in the AFC East at 10-7, but Buffalo would win out over Miami.  Miami really needs Buffalo to beat the Patriots this week and lose to the Jets the last week of the season, which is unlikely but you never know.

Climbing up the board, we've passed the Broncos and Browns.  

If the Bills beat the Patriots, we pretty much control our own destiny at that point.  I saw we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs if we win out and the Bills win vs the Pats.

The problem is if the Bills don't beat the Pats, we are most likely out of the playoffs even if we win out because we'll need 2 losses by either the Bills, Chargers or Colts or 3 losses by the Titans and none of those scenario's seem likely with the schedules for those teams...

Bills are @Pats, Falcons and Jets.
Chargers are @Texans, Broncos and @Raiders.
Colts are @Cards, Raiders and @Jax.
Titans have 49'ers, Dolphins and @Texans

This whole talk that we have a good chance to make the playoffs if we win out is just a lot of hot air unless the Bills win in New England next week and at best that's a 50/50 proposal in my humble opinion. Our odds to make the playoffs even if we win out is around 50% and really just comes down to that one game or we get lucky somewhere else like the Raiders (lost 5 of last 7) or Falcons (lost 4 of last 6) suddenly becoming good teams.

I just read that the Bills Cole Beasley just tested positive for Covid-19 and he's not vaccinated which means he's out for 10 days. If true the Bills chances of beating New England just took a nosedive as Beasley has been one of the Bills best offensive players this year. The Patriots already held Beasley to 1 catch in the previous game and won, if he's not on the field they don't even have to worry about him which allows them to focus on someone else to take away from the Bills offense.

Bill's Cole Beasley Tests Positive for Covid-19 (https://www.tmz.com/2021/12/21/buffalo-bills-receiver-cole-beasley-coronavirus-out-10-days/?adid=social-twa)

It's a very long shot to make the playoffs, but after starting the season 1-7, it is nice to be talking about chance to make the playoffs.

We will be able to discuss them after next week, too.  The earliest Miami can be eliminated is week 17.

Pappy, have you done all the simulations?

What we want:

SF over Tenn
GB over Cle
Az over Ind
Hou over LA
Buf over NE
KC over Pit
Den over LV

I haven't done any simulations, I'm basing what I'm saying off ESPN's Playoff machine (link below). Assuming it's accurate, just use reason to predict outcomes of games and it's very easy to see if Miami makes the playoffs or not. You can even predict ties if you want. There are very few realistic ways to get Miami into the playoffs at this point and almost all of them include them winning out which itself isn't that realistic AND Buffalo winning this week against New England and those chances just took a big hit with Beasley unable to play.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

If Miami wins out and the chargers loses one more game, they both finish 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record.  The next tiebreaker is common games.  Do the chargers have that?   Also, if Denver and the chargers tied with Miami, the division tiebreaker would eliminate one of them and one left would go against Miami

The other thing is, if Miami ties the bills, they are virtually eliminated because in any multi-team tiebreaker they are automatically eliminated

Playoff status says they cannot be eliminated this weekend, but I think they can be

NE clinches the division with a win against BUF. edit: Not true!  If NE and MIA finish 10-7 and BUF finishes with 8 or more losses, MIA wins the division.

As of right now, MIA can still make the playoffs with 8 losses, but it would require BUF or NE to lose out.  So no, MIA cannot be eliminated this week.

In fact, looking at the playoff machine, it's pretty simple.  If:

1) MIA loses @NO, wins @TEN, wins vs. NE
2) BUF or NE lose out
3) no other team loses to an opponent with a worse record
4) no game ends in a tie

MIA will be the 7th seed at 9-8.

For the machine, to account for strength of victory, wouldn't you have to account for all the games and simulate every one of them?

Let's say Miami defeats New Orleans and loses to one of either NE or Tenn

The Chargers beat the Texans lose their two remaining games. 

This gives Miami and LA 9-8 records and 6-6 Conference records

This means the next step is common games, with a minimum of four

Raiders = Chargers won, Miami lost
Giants = Both won
Ravens = Miami won, Chargers lost
Patriots = Miami won Chargers lost.

Does this mean that Miami has another pathway in at 9-8 even if NE or Buffalo do not lose out?

Only if strength of victory is a tiebreaker.

In any case, the machine does account for all the games if you Select Criteria in the upper right.

There is another pathway in at 9-8 for Miami that does not involve Buffalo or New England losing out

Week 16

GB beats CLE
Den beats LV
KC beats Pit
Cin beats Bal

Week 17

Cle beats Pit
Den beats LAC
LV beats Indy

Week 18

Pit beats Bal
LV beats SD

Derrick Henry is coming back just in time for the Miami game.

That is a big oof.

The current status is a 95% chance that Miami does NOT make the playoffs. I think their odds are a little better, maybe a 75% chance they don't make it.


http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

Yes...and no. With the machine you determine the result of every game and it tells you who makes the playoffs in that scenario so it doesn't have to simulate anything, it's based on the results that you have already selected. Now if you have not chosen a winner of a game then it just uses the games that you have chosen, but that's a crappy way of using it because all that says is who would make the playoffs prior to that game being played which is pretty pointless. What you want to know is who makes the playoffs based the results of the games that you choose.

Depends on what Buffalo and New England do. If New England wins the division and BUF finishes with the same record as Miami, Miami is out in every scenario I can find where there are tie-breakers involved. If Buffalo wins the division and MIA, IND, LAC and NE are all 10-7, MIA, IND and NE make the playoffs and the Chargers are out, but it's less likely MIA wins out than the Chargers do. The Chargers will probably be favored in all 3 of their remaining games where Miami will probably be underdogs in at least 1 or 2.

Not according to the Playoff Machine. If MIA, BUF, DEN and LAC are all 10-7 then according to the Playoff Machine BUF, DEN and LAC are the wild cards and MIA is out of the playoffs. I think you are misinterpreting the tiebreaker rules, otherwise the Playoff Machine is incorrect. I think the division tie breakers only apply when ONLY teams from the same division are involved in the tie-breaker. If there are multiple teams from different divisions involved then it's a different set of tie-breakers that apply. I think in that case it's record in common games and MIA is hurt anytime they are involved in that tie breaker with BUF because they lost twice to them. If BUF wins the division and MIA is tied with NE they are in MUCH better shape because they would have beaten NE twice.

I have split off the unrelated discussion about evaluating player/team quality into a different thread.

If the Raiders win tomorrow, it hurts Miami

If Raiders and the Patriots win tomorrow, Miami's only path in will be overtaking Buffalo. 

Incorrect.

1) OAK wins vs. DEN
2) IND loses out
3) MIA wins out
4) excepting the above, no team loses to a team with (as of right now) a worse record
5) no ties

In that scenario, LAC is #5 seed, BUF is #6 seed, MIA is #7 seed.

With each passing game, it's looking less and less likely we get in even if we win out. That being said, finishing the season with 9 straight wins would be a hell of an achievement and something to build on in the offseason. I just can't help but think "What If?" on so many things like losing to Jacksonville. We beat them, we're looking a lot better for the playoffs.

Needless to say, no team has ever lost 7 straight games and won 9 straight in the same season, especially under the old 16 game format.  Bittersweet history for us if it happens.

The problem is that that storyline is becoming the norm for every season.  At some point the players acquired have to play well enough and become leaders and give the team the kind of high-quality team identity with which it starts seasons in a far better manner and plays consistently well throughout.  The fact that the team has but one Pro Bowl player, when even rookies and early-career players are readily being acknowledged as having that caliber of talent (Chase, Herbert, Taylor, Slater, etc.) isn't a good sign.  You can't simply play as though you're "rebuilding" every year and call a second-half of the season rebound something positive.

Tony Romo hit the nail on the head when calling one of the Dolphins' games earlier this year.  He noted that amidst the bevy of draft picks the team has acquired and used, there hasn't been even a single difference-maker obtained.  That's a problem.  This team is going to need Tua, Waddle, Phillips, and Holland to become Pro Bowl-caliber, and they're going to need an insertion of capability on the offensive line as well.  The teams that win Super Bowls have stars on the field, not projects with potential.

More a matter of luck and having some more plays go their way

The "luck" that's most strongly related to winning in the NFL is turnovers, as turnovers are roughly 50% random in nature.  This team led the league in defensive takeaways last year, yet finished only 10-6.  They had their spell of luck last year and couldn't capitalize on it.  This year their luck ran out, as their defensive takeaways were far more middle of the road, fully expected as a function of regression to the mean.  Turnover margin this year is -2, also not indicative of good luck.

The problem with luck is that you can't count on it, because by definition it's random.  If you're counting on luck you're behind the eight ball in comparison to the teams that can count on their talent.

Brady can

We got two huge breaks.  The dolphins may control their destiny now

All three of the early games went our way

Now who do we want in the late games?

I think Miami now makes it if they win out

Yeah, I think you are right, I think they control their own destiny now. It's even possible they could lose a game and make the playoffs now. Would need a lot of help but it's possible. Course the loss would have to be to New Orleans and not New England or Tennessee, but still.

We need one loss from the raiders or Steelers before the end of the year.  Steelers are losing big to KC right now

With a win tomorrow we officially slip into the 7th seed.

The remote shot gets less and less remote each week. 

Beating the Saints boosts it to eighty four percent

It's nice to be discussing what they have to do to make playoffs, but it's also hard not to look back on what might have been with those three losses.

What would you think would be the loss that stings the most if the phins lose by one game or lose on a tiebreaker and miss the playoffs. The Jags game to me was the biggest loss simply because of it should have been a easy win.

But to live in the moment for a second i think they have a good chance of winning all three or at the least being in the games until the final minutes.

By far, the Jags game. It's the main reason why I would still fire Flores over the offseason. He didn't motivate a 1-7 team to win 6 straight. He demotivated and poorly planned to the point a team that can win 6 straight lost 7 straight.

If we are worrying about another team losing to make the playoffs, or the consequences of losing a game to someone we shouldn't have during the season, it says to me if we are in the playoffs then we are just making up the numbers. It's not where I want to be right now, it's not the point of tearing everything down to do a total rebuild.

I know this season has shown a fair bit of parity across the board, but we also had a soft as pudding schedule to get back to this spot - which could all come crashing back to earth very quickly with just one or two losses against better opposition.

Have we really improved from last year when we were (supposedly) in contention for a playoff spot when Buffalo kicked our asses in the last game and showed that we really weren't? The only really convincing wins we had this season against decent opposition were against the Patriots and the Ravens. 

I put it all on coaching. We didn't stand still or fall back a little, we became the absolute worst team in the league for the first half of the year. That is not our talent level. We may not be Superbowl champs, but since the division may be won with an 11-6 record this year, I absolutely felt like we could've taken it. Just look at how Tua got better once they stopped trying to sabotage him and let him play. Even our all world CB Xavien Howard was dogshit in the first half, it's unreasonable to think every player regressed as opposed to the coaching.

I'll keep saying, if we don't lose Tua to injury early in the season we're playing for the division title easily...even with bad losses to the Jags and ATL.

Side note:  If the Jags beat the Pats next week, the Jets would be the only team from the AFCE to beat them.

In theory, yes. However, do we go on the streak we have right now if we don't start 1-7? Hard to say. Only thing for sure is that Jacoby absolutely sucked and shouldn't be on this team next year.

Pretty cool to be at this point considering how the season started. If they can win the next three it will show that maybe with just a few more pieces and some development we can be legitimate contenders.

I don't know how to tell you this but we didn't lose games because of Jacoby, we lost because our defense was garbage for about 7 weeks straight. When the defense turned it around our season turned around plain and simple. Tua didn't have a whole lot to do with it. Go look at the box scores for Tua for the Jags and the Falcons. Tua played well in both games and we lost both of them. Now go look at Jacoby's box scores for the Colts and the Bucs. He played well enough to win in both of those games about on par with what Tua did against the Jags and Falcons, arguably inferior defenses to the Colts and Bucs. We lost all those games because the defense couldn't stop anyone and that's after having a good year last year where they were one of the top defenses in the league. We started winning when our defense stopped allowing 30 points a game and started to play like they did last year which is how we won 10 games. Jacoby actually didn't play that well against the Ravens or the Texans but we won both games because of the defense. Tua has played better than Jacoby, but not THAT much better. The offense is still the same old offense that they have been throwing out there for the last 2 years, some highs and some lows, but still not a consistently good offense. Tua has gotten better over the course of the year and so has Waddle, but it's not the offense that is winning games for us, it's the defense. The defense is what has made the difference from the losing streak to the winning streak, that's not even up for debate. I know the offense is all that anyone but me cares about, but it's the defense that is the reason that we lost 7 straight and the reason that we have won 6 straight and it will be the reason we keep winning if we in fact do. If the Dolphins give up 30 to any of the next 3 opponents, the season is over.

Well, we are through our softer than butter part of the schedule and the odds have improved... up to our last two games which will really test if we belong or not.

Tennessee are still without Henry (or maybe not?). If we can't beat them without him, we sure as hell can't come week 1 of the playoffs (where we are currently projected to meet).

Then the Dark Lord BB of NE who would like nothing less than to bounce our butts out of playoff contention.

We will either earn it the next two weeks, or we will find out we are really not in any better position than the last week of last season when Buffalo dealt us a nasty reality check.

I couldn't have said it better myself.   These last two games will be a measuring stick as to how much progress this team has made over the course of the year.   No one has ever started 1-7 and made the playoffs.  The Dolphins have a shot to be the first.

This is for D4L...

If Miami wins out they are in the playoffs. If Miami splits with the Titans and New England (doesn't matter who we beat) they will make the playoffs if all of the below happens. Miami is out of the playoffs if they lose both games. That's it. That's all the scenario's that are left.

-- Denver beats the L.A. Chargers in Week 17.

-- Cleveland beats Pittsburgh in Week 17.

-- Cincinnati beats Cleveland in Week 18.

-- Pittsburgh beats Baltimore in Week 18.

-- L.A. Chargers beat Las Vegas in Week 18.

All 5 of those games can go our way individually, but the odds of all 5 are pretty slim. So, we just have to win out and that's that.

Forget all those games, Miami just needs to win twice.  Titan game will come down to the better Defense, which is currently Miami; and related to that turnovers.  This is a very winnable game.  As for New England, it's at home, and Miami already beat them once when Miami was playing at it's worse!  It's a coin toss just because it's a divisional rival, hopefully the Defense can come up with a couple Int's.

We may be able to lock this thread after today.  

Right now, everybody we want to lose is winning by two scores.

Thirty minutes of football left for Miami to be in the hunt.

Waa Waa WAUUGH  (This is supposed to be that swan song music)

Another failure of a season.

See you guys next year.  

Somebody lock this thread.

Lock yourself...up in a mental ward