The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

This game wasn't that close. It was all Buffalo in the first quarter. Waddle drops a bomb that was right on the money and had another get poked out by terrific defense on a ball that was a little short. X got beat easily on a long pass play. Buffalo receivers caught anything close to them. 1 handed grab by a TE for a TD. Another that was scooped off the ground for a terrific catch. Anytime no one was open, Allen ran for a 1st down. Allen didn't have to be terrific because all his team mates were. Thompson got zero help. Offensive line never opened up any running game. WR's couldn't get open and dropped passes when they did. TE's did nothing to help. Tua wouldn't have won this game, Thompson had no chance.  

Why am I saying this? Because don't fall into the trap that Miami played them tough. They get credit for not getting blown out but the game was never really in doubt. Buffalo let their foot off the gas after they get an early lead and let Miami back into the game, but if they don't it's a blowout. Even after Miami takes a lead, Buffalo comes right back and goes up by 10 easily. Yeah Miami is without their best players, but even if they had them, it wouldn't have mattered, Buffalo was just better in every facet of the game and Miami was outmatched. Miami didn't make it close, Buffalo let them stay in it with poor play whenever they got complacent much like the Chargers did with Jacksonville.

Miami has a LONG way to go to get anywhere close to where Buffalo is and simply getting healthy isn't going to be enough. They need everything. Offensive line help. A TE that can both block and catch. Defensive backs that can cover. Linebackers that can get into gaps and stop running backs before they get started and can cover TE's and RB's out the backfield. Special teamers that can tackle. Punt and kickoff returners. Defensive ends that can get to a QB all by themselves.

Don't get me wrong, this team would compete in many other divisions, but in the AFCE they don't. Buffalo is in another league and Miami isn't that close. They did their best this year and I'm encouraged by what I saw this year, but they have a long way to go to catch Buffalo. Miami is going to have to take the money they spent on players that didn't help them this year Gesicki, Bridgewater, Chubb, Jones and find upgrades all over the field. Thompson was in over his head, but I believe he should be the backup to Tua next year. We can't afford to pay 3 QB's again next year, we don't have that luxury, just stick with Thompson as Tua's backup because he's cheap and if Tua misses more than a couple games next year, you have to replace Tua you can't stick with a QB that can't stay on the field. Upgrade the rest of the team and you won't need heroics from a QB to win a game. There's enough weapons on offense, upgrade the offensive line, the defense and the special teams and you'll have something special. Tua would be great with a good team around him, but if Tua can't stay on the field then find a replacement that can.

This is the same kind of logic that people used after the game in week 3.  "Look how many yards the Bills got!  Look how much time of possession they had!"

You say the game wasn't close but then proceed to list all the unforced errors the Dolphins made.  You think it "wouldn't matter" if they had their starting QB, SS, CB2?  It "wouldn't make a difference" if they had the RB that gained 136 yards against them in BUF 6 weeks ago?  The game "was never really in doubt" when MIA had a third-quarter lead and Josh Allen was turning the ball over on almost every possession?  Miami "isn't that close" to Buffalo after beating them in Miami and losing on the road by 3 points twice?  OK, man.

I don't know what the goal of this post is.  "Don't be encouraged, this team is still trash"?

There are so many unanswered questions for next year.

I say go all out to sign Brady

I’m a pessimist in the common and philosophical sense and I feel pretty good about the Dolphins after this loss. Maybe I’ll be proven an idiot once again for believing but this was FAR better than I would have expected.

Nope. I’ll be gone for the year if this happens sorry. I can’t cheer for the cankerous blight that is Brady.

Miami can ditch Tua for anyone else and I’ll stick around but I am out of that devil comes to South Beach.

Why, so you can finally get a Brady jersey you have wanted for years?

A very observant tweet (https://twitter.com/SweepTheLeg337/status/1614743722981298176):

"3 games vs the bills. 1-2 with all 3 games being decided by 3 points or less

The gap has closed."

For the record, the outcomes of the previous three games against BUF were a 15 point loss, a 35 point loss, and a 30 point loss.

Yep, damn right. We’re a few bounces from sweeping Buffalo 3-0.

With Flo we got blown out every time .

Because he is the LOAT

Take a look at yards per play differential to determine which team was dominant, aside from the random fluky nonsense.

Fluky nonsense IS this game. Your MLB math shit has importance but like many things it fails to account for human variables.

Say more about how fluky nonsense “is” the game.

Just because of you, I am sincerely hoping that Brady decides to retire after this season...

It is. The game comes down to “individual” play all the time I think Giants fan get that.

No shit good quarterback play and pressure on the QB leads to succes I don’t an analyst to tell me that. Sometimes and quite often something else prevails.

No one gave Miami a chance we were syooosed to get blown out but even in a loss this was the BEST playoff game since I’ve been a fan in 1997

If you examine a hundred games at random in which both teams scored in the 30s and one of them beat the other by about 3 points, you'd find a very small percentage of them in which one of the two teams benefited as much as the Dolphins did today by plays with a large random component.

You don't have a very lowly 3.3 yards per play and score 31 points very often.  The scoring under those circumstances is typically more along the lines of about 10 points.  The Dolphins benefitted today from a tremendous number of non-replicable plays.

Didn’t you say the same thing when we beat the bills in September?

Lol man ok, have fun zapping any joy out of this game.

I’ve always said your analysis has value and you’re not even wrong but fuck dude, things happen. The world doesn’t exist in your math equations and neither does this game.

No shit bro, having a good QB with a good pass rush and shut down corners is typically the formula to success. No one needs  to analyze 300 games to realize that but a lot of times the game in question comes down to human beings taking what they have in front of them and I’m sure that challenges your world view at large but here we are.

Football season is over as HST famously said.
Basketball season is here so go Denver.

But always, go Miami. I’ll be here next years as long as Brady isn’t.

The issue is what's predictive of future performance.  If Buffalo and Miami play 100 games in which there is a yards per play differential between them of 5.9 to 3.3, more than 80 of those games involve defeats of Miami by 20+ points.  Today was one of the other fewer than 20 of those 100 games in which random non-repcliable nonsense made it much closer.

So, what I'm getting at here is that it's very difficult to extract from this game some part of the team's performance that means it'll be good in the future or has somehow reached some new echelon of performance in the league.  And in fact the coach's performance called him into sharp question, which doesn't bode well.  McDaniel looked like an utter moron in terms of game management.

K, a Flores blowout was preferred, so sorry,

A Flores blowout would've been no different, unless he would've likewise benefitted from the same degree of randomness we saw in this one.  Then he too could've lost 34-31.

Your whole world view is a house of cards man

Anyway, there's no indication of what next year will bring, so we have to be happy about having made the playoffs, while being disappointed that they blew a shot at victory

We need defensive help, too

Didn't we go through this after week 3?


MIA and BUF have played 3 games over the last year.  Over those three games combined, BUF's score differential is one point over home field advantage.

How many games do they have to play before you stop ignoring the actual outcomes?  How many times are you going to keep returning to this "If they play a hundred more games the Dolphins should get blown out" silliness when the actual games are extremely close?

Under this bizarre theory of football, Brett Favre "shouldn't" have lost a bunch of games to worse teams in MIN and DET because his offenses were much more productive.  It was statistically unlikely!

The Dolphins had 3.3 yards per play to Buffalo's 5.9 today.

In the past three years of NFL play there have been but 35 teams average 3.3 yards play or fewer in a game.  It's so poor it happens in only about 4% of NFL games.

Since the year 2000 there have been 34 NFL games in which a team had between 3.1 and 3.5 yards per play, and its opponent had between 5.7 and 6.1 -- like today's game.

33 of the 34 teams that had between 3.1 and 3.5 yards per play lost those games, by an average margin of 18.4 points.

Doing what the Dolphins did today -- in terms of the non-fluky areas of the game that are strongly predictive of winning (yards per play) -- almost always results in a loss, and very typically results in a blowout loss by NFL standards.

Alright man. Maybe those non replicated plays happened because of individuals WANTING it which is what makes sports worthwhile not your autistic analysis.

You can want it all you want, and if it equals a win in only one of every 34 games of that nature, good luck.

You keep saying this while ignoring the outcome of the game.
Back in September your excuse was that it was only one game.  Now it's three games, and your tune still hasn't changed.

How many games have to be played before you consider the scoreboard to be a more important indicator of team performance than yardage?
5 games?  10 games?

Under your theory of football, turnovers don't count because they're "fluky," red zone success rate is apparently irrelevant, and just gaining a bunch of yards is more important than the score.  Somehow, if the Dolphins were regularly driving down the field and throwing red zone interceptions on the way to a loss, I doubt you'd be praising their high volume of yardage as "proof" of how dominant they are.

edit: This entire argument is a galactic waste of time.

(http://viperbeam.com/forum/2022-mia-ypp.png)

This is the coach whose job you are currently calling for, based on the team's performance TODAY.  With a rookie 7th-round QB.
And you have the nerve to talk about "fluky performance" when discussing the team with the #2 yards-yer-play in the league over the season.  Your chosen metric.

The outcome of the game was a loss.  As it would be in 33 of every 34 games of that nature, by an average margin of 18 points.

And the metric is yards per play differential, not offensive yards per play.  And we're talking about a single game, not a season average.

The overall point is that there is very little to take from that game that indicates anything about what to expect from the Dolphins in the future.  Very little of what was positive in that game reliably translates to any sort of future performance on their part.

The game isn't a statement about the season as a whole -- the game simply says very little about what to expect from them going forward.  You can't look at the game as some might and say something like "hey they lost by only 3 points to Buffalo on the road in the playoffs -- they're now a league contender."  The way that game unfolded doesn't permit that conclusion -- too much non-replicable randomness accounted for their performance.  And it leaves the glaring question as well regarding McDaniel's ability to function executively in his role.

The week 3 game was no different.  Notice the outcome of that game isn't consistent with the 9-8 finish that ensued.  What's consistent with the 9-8 finish that ensued was how that game was played, not the final score.

100% agreed. With all those guys out, we lose by 3 with a lot of self owns on our part. Don't tell us we aren't their equals when we played 3 close games against them and won one of them. Have Buffalo start their 3rd stringer yesterday and see who wins.

Pappy has some good takes at times but if there are two ways of looking at things he is going to choose the negative moany of the times. We were in position to win the freaking game and that's really all that matters. Ask Jacksonville if you don't believe me. If we had made one or two more plays we would be preparing to fly to KC right now.

Playcalling was really slow but you cant argue with the game plan. Waddle and Hill make those catches early in the game and they may not have gotten off to such a large lead. We gave up a long run to end the game when it shouldn't have been close as the defense played very well overall. Lot's of things to gripe about but in reality we had a chance to win with many, many, obstacles giving us the excuse not even be in the game.

3 games against one of the Super Bowl favorites and we have a point differential of -4. Not too shabby if you ask me.

There are some good points here, but man, also so much I disagree with...


If Waddle makes those two catches in the first quarter? Who knows, we could be looking at a completely different result.

Buffalo did not let their foot off the gas and let us back into the game... our defense got in their face, caused the turnovers, and got us back in the game. This isn't a team that meekly quit like the one Flores coached last year that had its ass whipped by the Bills - Miami did play them tough and close for all three games this year, and that's a significant step up on the last head coach's tenure.

That said, you have to count on every team getting better next year, so we have to find a way to get a lot better:

If Hunt stays at RT, then we need two quality guards - otherwise we need to find a starting RT and LG because what we have is not up to scratch.

We have ignored the need for a stud LB who can cover for years and it's killing us - this year we have given away the second most touchdowns in the league for TEs (which should not be a huge surprise to any of us). If we find some money, do we go after someone like Tremaine Edmunds who is a free agent this year? Or do we look to the draft? (where, oh yeah, we don't have a first round draft pick)

I think Thompson can be a capable (and cheap) backup, and having him as the designated second string with more reps will only help - I've seen enough of Teddy to know he ain't any better (IMO he's much worse) and he can go along with his salary hit.

We're all assuming Byron Jones is gone (although I did read an amusing piece today suggesting we will be better next year with his return!) so do we actively hunt a replacement, or put our faith in that Kohou and/or (gasp) Noah will be a starter next season?

As for Gieseke, we franchised him this year and did not use him properly (as a receiver) and I assume he (and his big salary) will be somewhere else next season (where he will play extremely well). Do we even get a replacement at TE? I mentioned in another thread our offense under McDaniel is almost like the old Run-and-Shoot offenses of the early 1990s where the position is almost non-existent...

If that is the way we are headed, then fortifying the OL is even more important - as it is right now we are vulnerable to blitzes from the edges because our TEs and RBs won't/can't block. Then it's all on the starting five linemen to cover everything, and with the QB get the protection assignments and calls right to make it work.

Some people say I'm negative, I like to think I'm just being a little more realistic than most. Most people are going to look at that game and say we lost by 3 points so we played well, sorry I can't just look at the score and make a determination about how we played. I didn't say the team sucked, actually I said I was encouraged by what I saw this year, but that game yesterday I was not impressed with Miami's performance and not just from the QB, from the team overall. We were overmatched all game. Maybe if Tua plays we do have a chance to win but only because Buffalo was off their game for much of the game. They nearly choked that game away to a team that was beat up. We had no business losing by 3 points in that game, it should have been a blowout, that's all I'm saying. That's not a positive for Miami, that's a negative for Buffalo. That doesn't say anything about next year other than we need to get better and we can't just roll it back it next year and think we will compete for the AFCE, that's all I'm saying.

I actually didn't watch the game live yesterday, I went to see a movie specifically so I wouldn't see the game live because I expected a blowout. After the movie I saw they lost by 3 and my initial reaction was the same as those that just see the score, Oh we played them close. Then I came home and watched the game and realized, no we didn't, they nearly choked the game away to a team without some of their best players. Bad game for Buffalo, not a good game for Miami. Miami made some big plays on defense, but other than a few shining spots, overall they were overmatched.

Here's some analysis by another person. I'd say this is spot on.

BY JAY BUSBEE

Bills 34, Dolphins 31. The Bills are good enough to dominate every team in the league. Every single one. The Bills also have enough bad stretches to get themselves bounced in any round of the playoffs. It nearly happened on Sunday, as Buffalo squandered a 17-point lead and had to hold on as Miami imploded. Josh Allen got sloppy, the two-touchdown underdog Dolphins pounced (can dolphins pounce? whatever), and just like that, Buffalo didn’t look quite so invulnerable. The Bills got their act together, but against a better team, they won’t get the chance. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are like a colt finding its footing. They’ll need Tua or another quarterback to run the show more efficiently than rookie Skylar Thompson did, but the pieces are there.

Three of the five biggest plays in this game as measured by expected points added were the scoop and score (8.8 EPA), the deep pick by Howard (5 EPA), and the tipped pick by Holland (4.8 EPA).  Another of those five biggest plays was Thompson's pick (-5.1 EPA).

EPA doesn't translate precisely to points, but for the sake of argument that's roughly 19 points for Miami and 5 for Buffalo as a function of plays with a significant random component (i.e., picks and scoops and scores).  29-12 looks a whole lot different from 34-31.

And whaddaya know, 29-12 is virtually the expected scoring margin (18 points) when the yards per play differential between two teams is what it was in this game.

The take-home message is that with the randomness in this game "removed," it's a blowout win for Buffalo by NFL standards.

Again that says nothing about the 2022 season as a whole.  It just means there is little meaning to be derived from this game in terms of what to expect from this team in the future.  Losing by three points on the road to a Super Bowl favorite didn't suddenly vault this team into the stratosphere of Super Bowl contention, because the nature of the game was largely non-replicable and non-predictive of the team's future performance.

Couple of good articles here:

https://www.footballperspective.com/are-nfl-playoff-outcomes-getting-more-random/

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/11/randomness-of-win-loss-records.html

Then why are you saying you are "done" with the head coach?

On the road with a 7th-round third-string rookie QB, the Dolphins' yards-per-play was dramatically worse than their second-in-league season average.  (You might even call it "fluky.") And yet, even with that uncharacteristic offensive performance, the team still had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

You know why?

1) This team had NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE PLAYOFFS.  The refs gifted them countless games and stole several from the Patriots.  It should have been New England in the playoffs.

2) This team brought in so much talent this year, and still couldn't improve on their record from last year

3) He can't manage the game.  That clock management would not have been okay at the pee wee level of football.

Alright?

He needs to go. He is DONE.  FINISHED!!!!!!

Totally out of frustration on my part yesterday. I don’t think they should fire him, but I do think he should relinquish play-calling.

His play-calling resulted in a second-in-league yards per play; a statistic you believe to be important.  Do you think he can plug someone else in and get the same result?

I don't think the Dolphins would have had the same issues with getting plays out if Tua were under center.  There is only so much personnel planning you should do for "I'm starting a 7th-round rookie backup QB in a playoff game."  Give Skylar more time and he should be able to execute playcalling more efficiently.  Let's not overreact to what was still, by any account, a dramatic performance above expectations for the team.

I would agree with Pappy that top to bottom Buffalo is a better football team, but I disagree in the amount of variance between the two teams.  I think coaching cost Miami a game or two this season, and injuries to just a couple players cost them two or three more games this year.  Hopefully McD learns from his mistakes when reviewing tapes in the off-season. I was disappointed in Josh Boyer after having coached under Bellichick and Flores, a decision needed to be made about him.  He'll probably get another year under the Jones was out and X was playing injured, and perhaps he should.

I know I shouldn't take this troll-bait, but I can't help myself.

Where do you come off thinking the Patriots should have been the ones there.  They aren't as good as we are.  We played them twice.  ...whooped their ass the first time.  Lost by 2 with a 3rd string QB.  The Pats lost 5 of 7 to end the year.  They got waxed by the Bills twice.  You wanna send them in to Buffalo to get waxed again?  We beat the Bills once already, but in three contests, have a point differential of 4.

And we have a better record than the Patriots.

Your referee narrative is tired, boring, and untrue.  ...as are your New England and Brady narratives.  You need new material.  Move on.

The Patriots had several games stolen from them by the refs making or missing bad calls at critical points.  In Week 1, they were driving for an opening score, when X mauled Devante Parker leading to an interception and shfiting the momentum.

Against the Packers, Kendrick Bourne had his jersey grabbed on a key play in overtime, stopping them from driving for a winning field goal.

Against the Vikings, four bad calls in that game.

Against the Raiders, Keelan Cole's catch in which he CLEARLY was out of bounds.

Even in the game they won against Miami, they had a fumble taken away from them on a bullshit call

Miami won a sheer gift game against Chicago.

It may be boring and tiresome.

But it is NOT untrue

bad calls happen to every team, you're focused on a single team
it all evens out during the season

how about when Bridgewater was pulled from the game against the jets because a jets spotter "saw" him stumble around when nothing even close happened from every slow mo replay or every camera angle.

That's not a bad call that directly affected the game.

No, it doesn't necessarily even out.