The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Let's be honest, even if the Dolphins were to win all of their remaining games they are unlikely to make the playoffs and with the way that Tua has been playing lately, it's time to see what you have in either Ewers or Wilson. Personally, I'd rather see Ewers than Wilson, but both deserve a chance to play some meaningful football this year. Don't wait till the last game of the season to put them in, give them at least 2 or 3 starts each. If one isn't coming along try the other one. It's time. The playoffs are out of the question and honestly, losing a couple more games this season isn't going to hurt anything. We need to know if one or the other is starter material or if they are just backups because if they are, then Miami needs to draft Tua's replacement in the upcoming draft. The only way you're going to find out is give them 2 or 3 starts and see what they have and how the team reacts to them playing.

1) The playoffs aren't "out of the question" until the team is eliminated.  Giving up on a season during a win streak is unimaginably corrosive and demoralizing.
2) Tua is going to be on the team in 2026 regardless.  If he's healthy for the next 23 games (which would make two full seasons in a row) then... great!  Find THAT out instead.

Wilson will be relatively cheap regardless, and "We need to give up on our season so we can find out if this seventh-round pick has what it takes to be our franchise QB" is not a question that should be uttered by any serious GM.  Seventh-round picks are a dime a dozen.

So are 6th round QBs but look what happened when Brady was given a chance to replace a very good QB. Ewers lost by 3 in overtime to Georgia throwing for almost 360 yards in the SEC Championship. I really don't undertsand why he dropped like he did but he at least deserves a shot before we move on from him. He was outplaying Zach Wilson in the preseason as a rookie.  

With that said I don't see them replaceing Tua while we still have a shot. Not because of performance as Tua's 55 QBR wouldn't be too hard to duplicate, but because Mike has no balls to make the tough calls.

Well I wouldn't consider replacing Tua giving up on the season. It's possible that Miami's chances at the playoffs would increase with a QB change. Tua has been that bad for weeks now. Miami has been winning despite Tua rather than because of him. If the Dolphins do make the playoffs, maybe another QB should be taking the snaps.

I agree that Tua is going to be on the team in 2026, but we need to be grooming his replacement during that time. It's clear that even if Tua is healthy that he's not the future of this franchise. His limitations are too many and his contract is counter productive. They HAVE to move on from him in 2027 regardless.

As I said, I don't consider giving another QB a shot giving up on the season. The way that Tua is playing, I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson or Ewers is as good if not better. Frankly if Wilson is not better than Tua at this point, I don't want him as the backup in 2026. I'd like to know if Ewers should be the backup in 2026. We won't know till we see them play and I'd rather that be this year than next year. Besides we don't have a GM right now, we have an "interim GM". Are you suggesting that we don't replace the "interim GM" at the end of the season or at the very least look for another one?

Your first words were "Let's be honest, even if the Dolphins were to win all of their remaining games they are unlikely to make the playoffs and with the way that Tua has been playing lately, it's time to see what you have in either Ewers or Wilson." So it's very obvious this plan is giving up on the season, otherwise you wouldn't be saying the playoffs are unlikely even if the team wins out; you would have said the team desperately needs to win to stay in the playoff hunt, therefore Tua needs to be replaced.  But no one - especially not the players - would buy that you are inserting a 7th-round pick (or: Zach Wilson) because you want to win now.  That's just absurd.

"Kurt Warner was bagging groceries before he became the league MVP for the Rams and a Hall of Famer, so the Dolphins should scour every Publix for their next starting QB"

Tua actually won the national championship so I'm not sure why we're talking about what these players did in college.

A lot of great college QBs couldn't hack it in the pros.   College is a whole different animal.   You can get away with gimmick play in college.   You can't in the NFL.  Everyone has the ability.

More than one thing can be true at once. 

1.  The Dolphins are unlikely to make the playoffs regardless of who their quarterback is.

2.  Ewers gives the Dolphins a better chance at making the playoffs than Tua. 

Tua is a good but not great QB.  It is possible for a team to win the superbowl with him, but no team is going to win a superbowl because of him.  (Build a good defense around him and he is good enough to win games, but he is not good enough for a team to expect him be the reason for a win.  He is more Brad Johnson than Peyton Manning.  For this reason I consider Tua overpaid.  He could be part of a championship team if you spend money on getting a great defense, but not a team in which he is the highest paid player on the team.)

I have seen enough tape of Tau to know he should lead the Dolphins to a victory over the Jets.  But I have also seen enough of him to know he isn't going to sweep Steelers, Bucs and Patriots.  Ewers probably can't either.  Odds are Tau is better than Ewers, but we don't know.  We know what Tau can and can't do.  We don't know what Ewers can do.

While I agree with you, it won't happen.  McDaniel is fighting for his job and Tua gives them the best chance of winning games (only because he has more NFL experience).  Also, benching Tua would reduce his trade value should anyone be interested (maybe Grier's landing spot).

I guess I see giving up on the season and giving up on the playoffs as different things. I still want to win games, I just think even if we win them all we won't make the playoffs regardless. If I'm being honest I gave up on making the playoffs about week 7. If that's giving up on the season to you so be it, but that's not how I look at it. I wasn't calling for Tua's replacement in week 7 because he wasn't the problem then and because I wanted to see if Tua could turn things around, but he hasn't. Actually if anything he's gotten worse as the season has worn on and the defense has stepped up. Even if we don't make the playoffs, we can still have a productive season in my mind, but now I've seen enough of Tua for this year. I want to see someone other than Tua taking snaps and see what we have with them and see how the team reacts to them. I'm not giving up on winning football games, I'm just giving up on Tua as the QB, 2 different things. I believe the way the team is structured now we can win games without Tua, but unless we actually try we won't know. I don't want to wait till next year or the year after to find that out, much better to find out now to better prepare for the future.

I don't see why the QB is given special status. If the starting left tackle wasn't playing up to your expectations you would replace him. Why is the QB any different? Just for comparison, I thought the defense looked terrible through the first 7 weeks as well, but they HAVE turned it around and many of the players on that side of the ball deserve a spot on the roster next year. If they weren't playing up to expectations, I'd expect some changes there as well.

Earlier in the year I would have agreed with you. Now I'm not so sure.

It's weird to me that you acknowledge that the defense - only one of whom (Minkah) has ever shown the same ceiling as Tua - can successfully turn around their league-worst performance midseason, but Tua is simply unsalvageable and must immediately be replaced with a 7th-round pick (or: Zach Wilson).

I've given Tua 76 games to convince me. For a time he was convincing me and overcoming his deficiencies, but not any more. Some of the things that Tua did so well a couple years ago he's now struggling with it seems. I don't know if that's because he's missing Hill, I'm sure that's part of it, but not convinced that's all there is to it. I think Tua's game always required a bit of seperation from his players for Tua to thrive. If he's forced to throw into tight windows, he doesn't have the arm strength and accuracy to do that consistently and he doesn't have the ability to go off script. He used to seem to trust his arm more than he does now. There's been some talk about his footwork as well, maybe that has something to do with it, I'm no QB coach, I don't really know, I just know it doesn't look good.

It's possible that Tua just needs to regroup and regain his confidence and I'll give him another offseason and next year to get things right, but unless he returns to his form from a couple years ago, his contract is detrimental to the team and he has to go and that means that Miami needs to be grooming his replacement now in the event that happens. Next year is going to be the year that either Tua turns into the Tua of old or he's replaced by the end of the year. They can't wait to replace him in 2027 with a rookie and lose another season.

For a significant majority of those 76 games, he's played better than almost every player on the current defense.  Hell, even this season when the defense was playing like the worst unit in the league, no one was saying to bench/cut all of them and see if the backups or practice squad can play.  So as you put it:


He has played well in some games the defense lost, and he's played poorly in some games the defense has won.

We're still in 2025.  Tua is going to be on the roster next year.

Whatever you may think of Tua, it is considerably more likely that he will be the starting QB next year than Wilson or Ewers.  If the Dolphins decide to move on from Tua, it almost certainly won't be for a QB currently on the team.  Zach Wilson is what he is, and while Ewers could be the next Brock Purdy, he has a better chance of being the next Skylar Thompson.

But I think that is exactly what they will do.  Can't trade him unless Miami agrees to continue paying part of his salary. I would hope to see a true QB competition in training camp next year if McDaniel will let it happen (That's a reason to let McD go) On the positive side there are a lot of young players that have got to see a lot of live NFL action this season and these players have improved throughout the season; I think that's partly the reason for the uptick in defensive play.  Additionally the young guys on the left side of the O-line have been playing together and improving.  From that perspective there are some positives to this season in evaluating other players on the team.

No one on the defensive side of the ball is making 50 million a year or considered a franchise type player in my opinion. Heck I'm not sure the entire starting 11 are making 50 million a year combined. I had higher expectations going into the year for Tua than everyone on the defensive side of the ball and pretty much everyone on the offensive side of the ball too and he hasn't lived up to that this year. Playing up to the level of the defense or the rest of the offense isn't good enough and lately he's not even doing that. As the leader of the team and being the franchise player he's being paid to be, I expect a lot more from Tua than I do most other players so he's falling pretty far short of expectations in my humble opinion. Perhaps even further short of expectations than anyone else on the team that isn't on injured reserve. Is that unfair?

I agree and I think Miami would be foolish to give Ewers one start against New England in the final game of the season after they have been officially eliminated from the playoffs which I think is where we are headed.

Just nitpicking, but Tua's cap hit is $39 million this year. That jumps next year to $56 million, but for now it's at least somewhat lower. It's an ugly contract for the Dolphins, though. I wasn't surprised (or opposed, really) by the total amount, but the structure is brutal. If we, as I fully expect, cut Tua after the '26 season, he will have been paid over $146 million for 2 extension years. Technically, the contract replaced his '24 rookie contract, so that amount is paid out in '24, '25, and '26 (plus $3 million in '27). Still, that is one heck of an expensive extra two years.

As for the defense, the top 10 in terms of 2025 salary cap are pretty much exactly $50 million.

Fair enough, but in my defense his earnings in 2025 is 51 million.

Here’s how his 2025 compensation is structured:
- Base Salary: $25,046,000
- Signing Bonus (prorated): $25,000,000
- Workout Bonus: $250,000
- Total Cash Earnings (2025): $51,046,000
- Cap Hit (2025): $39,181,294
- Dead Cap Value (2025): $137,896,000

Does that include Phillips who is no longer on the team and was probably the biggest under achiever (money wise) on the defensive side of the ball this year? He wasn't just benched, he was traded which is what we should probably do with Tua if anyone would take his contract. We all keep saying that Tua will be on the Dolphins next year which is probably the case, but don't forget that there will be a new GM for the Dolphins next year and he might just be willing to eat a big part of Tua's salary to replace him anyway especially if McDaniel is replaced as well. Stranger things have happened. 2026 could be a complete rebuild year and Tua might not be in the plans. I think that's unlikely mostly because I don't think the owner wants that, but it's still a possibility.

Not sure how that was calculated and I think we both agree that it doesn't really matter too much. I just wanted an "in" to complain about Tua's contract. For what it's worth, the source I used didn't specify that the payout structure of his signing bonus. Weird that it was split across multiple years (since he was apparently paid $25 million of it this year of the $42 million total). Oh well.


No, only players still with the team. Phillips counts nearly $12 million against our cap this year, Howard $15.7 million, and Ramsey another $15 million. None of those were counted. Kohou on IR wasn't counted either. But it was *cap* and not whatever they were paid out, which isn't listed as nicely ;)


Have stranger this happened? Sure, but I don't see anyone trading for Tua with his current contract. And the dead money is *obscene* if you cut him. Around $100 million. That's an extra cap hit of well over $40 million compared to keeping him for 2026. You could designate him a post-June 1 cut and spread the hit over two years, but that doesn't really make at that much more palatable if what you want is just to get out quick. Could someone agree to a trade if we eat a large part of his salary? Sure, but his payouts look like they are close to $50 million a year, so that would have to be a hella substantial chunk.

IMHO, Tua is going to be playing under a new contract in 2027. One way or another.

Obviously, I wouldn't mind it one bit if he flipped a switch and started playing like a top quarterback.

Now that the season is over it’s time to bench Tua and see what happens.

Agreed.   You know what you have with him and it won't be enough to win.   His play has gone downhill as a result of the shots he's taken to the head and the time he's missed.

He is now 0-6 when the temperature is below 40 degrees, 3-12 in his last 15 games against teams with winning records, 2-8 in his last 10 games in prime time, and his mobility has tanked while his interception count has skyrocketed.

And the sad thing is, this team is stuck with him for at least one more year.   

I'd love them to sit Tua but I really don't see it happening. Mike doesn't have the balls to make the hard descisions and Ross won't.

If Mike doesn't sit Tua next game, he should not be the coach next year. It's not about saving your job anymore, it's about preparing this team for next year and beyond and that starts now. If you can't do what needs to be done, then you're not the coach for the Dolphins. I really like McDaniel and would like him to stay, but if he's too connected to Tua, then he has to go too. The rebuild is on whether they admit it or not. The GM is gone. Maybe it's time to get rid of the coach and the QB as well. Full rebuild. I hate to say that as there's no guarantee that getting rid of everyone is going to solve anything, but keeping them around doesn't seem to be the solution.

Your position does not even allow for the possibility that either of the other two QBs on the roster are even worse than Tua.
Which is a really strange position to take, given that we've seen 5 years of backups coming off the bench and playing worse than him.

With the playoffs now out of reach, he should be benched for the rest of the season.

His current form is awful, the worst of his career - whether it's is due to lack of confidence, hits to the head, or other rumored injuries (like the hip affecting his footwork and throwing mechanics) I've seen enough now to think he should be removed to sort this out.

We're likely stuck with him next season because of his contract, so it really doesn't make an awful lot of sense pushing him out there - unless it's for him to get an injury if there's a potential clause in his contract to get out of paying up. Not that it matters, because Tua now looks to be making sure he definitely doesn't get injured out there.

On the contrary, I'm actually assuming they are but would like to see them play so we know. If the other 2 QB's on the roster are worse than Tua then we need to be working on finding a replacement for Tua after 2026. Besides, they don't necessarily need to be better than Tua they just need to be close to keep them around. If they are close then we can keep them around and get rid of Tua and not be salary capped which allows us to improve in a lot of ways, not necessarily the QB room. With Tua on the roster we can't improve the rest of the team. We need to find out what the 2 backups are, we already know what Tua is.

Mike sounded yesterrday like he was making the switch. Dave Hyde said this morning on the Joe Rose show he thought it was 100% going to happen and that Tua likely has started his last game for the Dolphins ... ever.  

Can the Dolphins afford to not have him on the team next year?

OK, so based on this, whoever made the determination that Chris Grier's pick of Tua was a good one and the organization needed only an offensive guru like Mike McDaniel to realize Tua's potential needs to either 1) be fired, or 2) in the event it's Stephen Ross and he can't be fired, realize he needs to hire someone to make GM and head coaching hiring decisions in the future, so that he isn't doing it himself.

Not really but if Ewers plays well, they can easily keep Tua on the bench next year.  His big cap hit will come off the books in 2027.

It's official. It only makes sense and I'm glad that McDaniel understands that. The article seems to indicate this is the end of the road for Tua and the Dolphins, but I'm not buying that. If that were the case, wouldn't it make more sense to start Wilson since he's been the backup to Tua all year? No, this is a tryout for Ewers to see if he's gonna be on the team next year or not. I still fully believe Tua will return next year, but he won't be penciled in as the starter for 17 weeks in my opinion. He'll probably start the year, but I think they will be grooming his successor and if they feel the time is right for a change they'll make it next year. Could be that if Ewers play well enough for the next couple of games that Ewers will be the backup next year and Wilson will be gone and it might even be an open QB competition between Ewers and Tua in pre-season, but that's getting ahead of ourselves, we first have to see how Ewers plays.

https://nypost.com/2025/12/17/sports/tua-tagovailoa-benched-as-dolphins-career-suddenly-at-risk/

And make no mistake, if Ewers doesn't play well in the next couple of games, Miami needs to get a replacement for Tua in the draft or in free agency. I don't necessarily mean that replacement has to play in 2026 instead of Tua, but he at least needs to be on the team and competing for the QB position with Tua so that's he's ready to start in 2027. Under no conditions should Tua be on the team in 2027 unless he suddenly turns into Mahomes or Allen.

This might also determine whether or not McDaniel stays in 2026. If Ewers comes in and plays well enough for the Dolphins to win a couple more games, then why not keep McDaniel around for another year and see what happens? If it all goes to shit in 2026, then the new GM gets rid of Tua and McDaniel and starts with a clean slate and enough cap space to rebuild. If Ewers tanks in the next couple of games then maybe it's McDaniel's last year with the Dolphins and the total rebuild starts in 2026. This isn't about Tua, it's about determining the path forward.

Keep in mind that drafting a QB in 2026 (instead of 2027) means that you are wasting a valuable year of the QB's rookie pay scale with Tua's contract still on the books.

There have been multiple recent examples of rookie QBs coming into the league and having immediate (if not necessarily sustained) success.  So it's not like it's mandatory to have a QB come in and sit for a year.

That's a fair point, but there's also been a couple of examples of rookie QB's needing more than a year to get acclimated to the NFL before they start producing. A lot of teams haven't given rookie QB's enough time to grow into the position and they found more success at their next stop. I'd actually like to give a rookie QB a year of learning the offense and learning the speed of play at the next level before being thrown to the wolves. That might not be necessary if you get a QB through free agency but then they likely aren't on a rookie contract either so not really much to be gained there either.

The problem is, the QB crop in this draft class isn't that good.   I say focus on fixing your trenches this draft.   You're gonna get a relatively high draft pick for not making the playoffs.  Why not trade down a bit and pick up an extra pick?  That's an extra chunk of O-Line beef right there.   

Fix your trenches and defensive secondary.  Roll next year with Ewers and Tua ready to go if Ewers either sucks or goes down.   Then if the results are the same as this year, get your franchise QB in 2027 and your lines are ready to go.

NE and CHI threw their QBs to the wolves and it doesn't seem to have hurt them too much.  If MIA is going to give up on being competitive, then you might as well maximize the upside of such a move (lots of cap space).  It doesn't make sense to give up on being competitive AND keep a bloated cap.

It also seems relevant to mention at this point that rookie QBs that went on to find more success at their next stop did so because their original team gave up on them and/or refused to pay them, which seems like the opposite of the problem that most Dolphin fans are complaining about this season.

I don't follow. How is drafting a Tua replacement giving up on being competitive?

That actually might play into the Dolphins hand though. The Dolphins are not going to get a top draft choice, but there's no reason that you have to draft your QB in the 1st round. There are QB's in the draft that might be good 2nd or 3rd round picks and the Dolphins have those. The key is in picking the right QB which is what a good GM is paid to do. Anyone can pick a QB in the first 5 picks, it takes skill to find a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That's what I'm asking of the new GM. Now, he may not get it right on his first try, I realize that but then that's the job that your coach is paid to do to figure out if you picked the right QB or not. If not, try again the following year and keep doing that until you find one. Too often QB's are either expected to start as rookies or they are considered a bust but that's only true if you pick one in the top of round 1. Pick a QB in rounds 2-7 and you can afford to sit him on the bench for a year and see how he progresses. By the end of their rookie season you should at least know if you need to pick another one the following year or not. We've already started that process with Ewers in the last draft. Now is the time to find out if we need to do that again or we think Ewers is a potential Tua replacement.

This is what you do with every OTHER position other than QB. Why not QB?

Drafting a prospect QB with the explicit intention to sit him, when you believe no other QB on your roster is viable, is "giving up on being competitive."

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tLp8hDOCS6E

I'm glad Ewers is getting a shot, but I hope he won't be judged on just these three games.  Rookies with entire seasons don't always impress their 1st year, heck look at how many opportunities Tua has been given.  Miami does have a shot at finishing 3-0; Cincinnati has been eliminated and are leaving the cold so maybe they just come down and enjoy the weather.  Tampa is not a great team, but they are battling to win their division.  New England will most likely not be playing for anything, but it will be a cold weather game.  Furthermore, New England is not as good as their record suggests, they have been playing easy teams just like Miami, only they have gone out and executed.

In that scenario, Tua would stay for 2026.

That's not the scenario I described. Tua is a completely viable QB, the problem is that his contract is not. If he was making 25 million for the next 2 years you wouldn't *need* to replace him. QB play is not the only problem the Dolphins have, but the QB's contract is absolutely preventing the Dolphins from addressing the rest of the roster the way it needs to be addressed. That's the problem and the only solution is to get rid of that contract but you can't realistically do that until 2027. There's only 2 real options here, cut Tua and take the 99 million cap hit over the next 2 years which completely prevents your team from addressing any of the problems for at least a year or keep Tua for 2026. If you keep him and he's the best QB on the roster you play him (I'm assuming he's not going to get significantly worse in one year). If he's not the best QB on the roster you play whomever is. That's not giving up on being competitive (If it were that means you think Miami gave up on being competitive this year), that's making the best of the situation that you find yourself in.

This is crazy talk.  It is absolutely insane to bench a QB because he's making too much money.  That's like saying if Tua restructures his contract, suddenly he's the starting QB again!

Any (aspiring to be) competitive team with a QB that is not on his rookie deal will have roughly the same amount of cap tied up in their QB as MIA does.  Despite all the screaming from fans about FIFTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the problem is not his contract... it's his play.  If he were playing exactly as he is now at half the price, the team would not be meaningfully better off.

Benching him and keeping him on the books for the remainder of his contract would be insane. 

Replacing him because of his price tag makes perfect sense. 

Keeping him if he is willing to take a wage cut also makes sense. 

He is a good but not elite QB.  He is good enough to be part of a Superbowl winning team in which the stars of the team are 2 guys on defense and the tight end or running back is the star of the offense. 

He is not good enough to carry the team.  But the Dolphins are paying like he can carry the team.  If he was being paid what he is worth the Dolphins could afford a much better team around him. 

So to an extant claim "Tau is not the problem, it is the other players on the team" is true.  But Tau is the problem because the Dolphins can't afford to build the rest of the team with his contract. 

If he was a Mariano type player that can win even with a weak supporting cast than pay him like that.  But he is more of a Jim McMahon type player so you need enough money left over to afford the Refrigerator

So yes, if he is cut or traded the next team might have better success with him, if he comes at a lower price tag and the they give him a supporting cast. 

Grier really screwed you guys over.  Not just with Tua but with several over bloated contracts. 
   

With Tua playing at this level:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

...the Dolphins would need one of the most stifling defenses in history to compete for a Super Bowl.  Assembling and maintinaing such a defense is obviously highly unlikely.

People talk about what a QB "needs around him" to win, and that's all well and good.  But you have to consider as well how likely it is to assemble and maintain such surroundings.

Ryan Tannehill had a couple good years in Tennessee when the stars aligned around him.  But if it's difficult to maintain the stars in such an alignment because of injuries, free agency, trades, retirements, coaching changes, etc., it speaks to the QB's inadequate ability.

The Chiefs won a Super Bowl in 2020 with a mediocre defense.  That's because, in sharp contrast with Tua this year, this is where Patrick Mahomes and the pass offense were functioning:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/season/2020/seasontype/2

You're not benching him because he's making too much money you are benching him because his play has fallen off a cliff and the playoffs are out of reach and it's time to give someone else a chance to step up. That's why he's being benched.

He would be in 2026 or at least he would be able to compete for the starting spot with whomever else is on the team and that might be exactly what happens. The Dolphins could persuade Tua to restructure his contract, not to lower his salary, but to push more of it into the future when they don't expect him to be on the team. That doesn't really help at the QB position but it would lower his cap hit for 2026 and allow the Dolphins to get better in other places other than the QB room. The only thing that would stop this from happening is Tua refusing to restructure his contract but then that might just mean he would be cut which really isn't an attractive alternative. I could easily see Tua being talked into restructuring his contract so that the Dolphins would have more cap space for 2026 to put better players around him and hopefully have better results than 2025. It's not crazy talk. A guy on the Patriots did it year after year because he was more concerned with the team having the money to put players around him than putting dollars in his own pocket despite the fact that he was playing at a very high level.

No, it's both his play and his contract. If he was the best player on the team no would care about his contract. It's because his play has not lived up to his contract that he's a problem. If he lived up to his contract Miami could try to trade him. If he lived up to his contract Miami likely would have been more competitive this year. This is why his 52 million is a problem, because they aren't competitive with him, they can't trade him because no one wants that contract and they can't get better players to surround him because of his contract. It's ALL of that. If he plays up to the contract there's no issue with Tua. You keep preaching about how it's so important to take advantage of the fact that you have a starting QB on a rookie contract while at the same time saying that it's not a disadvantage when you don't. You can't have it both ways. Either it is an advantage to have a starting QB on rookie salary AND a detriment when you don't or neither is true. Choose. Don't tell me both things are true, they are mutually exclusive and the play of the QB determines how much of an advantage or detriment it is. The more you are paying the QB and the more he's failing to live up to that contract the bigger the disadvantage gets.

Wrong. The QB position would not be better off, but it's likely the team would be better off. It's a team sport and every team is under salary cap restrictions. More money to your QB means less money for everyone else which impacts how you build the team. It's why the whole rookie QB contract is even a thing. You even acknowledge that is the case but refuse to acknowledge it as it pertains to Tua and the opposite end of the spectrum for some reason.

The Dolphins won 4 of 6 games with Tua playing at a below average level. He just needs to be average for the team to be competitive, but lately he's not even been that. Granted that not even that would be good enough for playoff success, but with an improved team around him as well? The reason the Dolphins lost 6 of 7 in the first 7 weeks was because the defense was playing so poorly and giving up 30+ points a game. That has changed and they've done a much better job in the last 6 games. Tua however has gotten worse since then.

I mean, is it?

I think that in a new season, you start your best player, especially the one making the money.

But to end a season that you've lost, I can see how you'd bench Tua because you realize he makes too much money and you'd like to maximize your chance to move him off the team.  That's what I think it likely happening here.

I think that Tua is not the worst starter in the league and there are many teams that would benefit from having him on their roster as a starter or an interim to their future guy.  But not at max money.  That's the rub.  So if someone else wants him and we can eat some of that money, but not all of it by keeping him, maybe that's the sweet spot.

If he were playing at an average level the team would need one of the best pass defenses in the league to compete for a championship.  That again is a tall order, because it's comprised of a critical mass of defensive players that isn't easy to assemble or maintain.

Winning at a high level in today's NFL is based primarily on pass offense and pass defense.  Obviously pass offense hinges to a large degree on the quality of the QB.  Pass defense on the other hand requires multiple defensive players, most notably edge rushers and corners.  This is why the players that comprise these parts of teams are paid the most -- QBs, LTs (the primary pass protectors), WRs, DEs, and CBs.

If your QB is mediocre you need a stellar pass defense.  If your QB is stellar on the other hand, you can win big with a mediocre pass defense -- i.e., the 2020 Chiefs.

Essentially it's all about the QB and the pass offense -- the one you have, and how well you defend against the opposing one.

You just said:


This is absolutely not true.  At the level of play he has shown since the BAL game, it would not matter how much money he is making.  You would definitely need to replace him.

Again, this is a problem with his play, not his pay.  If his pay were cut down to that of, say, Justin Fields (2yr/$40M total), the team would not be appreciably better off.

First of all, there's a huge gap between a "rookie contract" and an "affordable veteran contract."  Would it make a big difference if Tua was making ~$6M/yr like Michael Penix or ~$8M/yr like Anthony Richardson instead of $52M?  Sure.  But there's no chance you're re-signing a QB you drafted to a contract that small.  Any QB would rather leave than stay and take a deal that low.

And even when Tua WAS still on his rookie contract, it's not like Miami had a major advantage in talent; Hill and Chubb are still on the team, Ramsey was traded for Minkah.  Maybe you could have afforded to keep Robert Hunt, but I don't think Miami was in a position to give a $100M contract to a guard, regardless of what the QB is making.

No, you would *want* to replace him, but you wouldn't *need* to replace him. If you could find someone better you'd do it, but if not you could live with him for another year. Find someone to replace Hill next year so that he has another target, maybe draft a RT to protect his blindside and maybe he doesn't look quite as bad. It wouldn't be ideal, but it wouldn't be absolutely necessary either.

There's an even bigger gap between 25 million a year and 50 million a year. We are on the opposite end of the spectrum to having a QB on a rookie contract. If we were just in the middle things would be different.

Maybe we could keep Minkah after this year? Maybe Hill? Maybe Chubb? Maybe make some deals to move up in the draft? With Tua's contract situation we are probably going to lose all of those guys. Not that you really want to keep all those guys or they help that much but If Tua's contract was different at least you would have options, now you have none.

Well that's not entirely true, you have 1 option left. Play your rookie 7th round QB and pray he looks good enough to cut Tua and just eat the dead cap money. Even if Ewers isn't all that good you managed to win a few games with what you had at QB this year, maybe McDaniel can work some magic with Ewers again next year. It's not like the kid doesn't have skills he was once a top prospect and he has played in some big college games and done alright. Not his best year, but not as bad as your typical 7th round QB either. Maybe he'll be better than we think. If you are looking for a cheap replacement for Tua while you recover from your cap nightmare, it doesn't get any cheaper than Quinn Ewers. It might be McDaniels last chance to keep his job so I'm rooting for Ewers, but I'm not holding my breath either.

You CAN "live with him for another year" at $52M!
If you're going to classify "want" vs. "need" in this way, it's all wants.

That difference is insufficient.  Saving $20-25M/year is not enough; you would need to be saving closer to $50M (i.e. Tua re-signing at rookie scale in 2024) to make a real impact.

I don't see how a smaller contract for Tua would help the team move up in the draft.
The other three options you listed - all of which are still possible with Tua at his current salary, because they have to be (otherwise you'd have to dump these players even if Tua was playing at an MVP level) - are all "Keep this team together" options, which do not make the team any better if Tua is playing at the same level but for less money.

They may have to. It would be a LOT easier to get rid of him before the 2026 season if his dead money was half what it is. We're not even having this debate if that's the case so don't pretend that his contract doesn't matter.

I initially thought no, but the more I hear about Miami's salary cap situation the more I realize that while the 2026 cap would be a big problem, Miami is actually in pretty good cap shape for 2027. Miami can actually cut Tua and Hill and defer part of the money for both to 2027 and still be well under the cap for 2027, like 100 Million under the cap. 2026 is really the only year that it's a problem, but with some work it's definitely feasible to do that. So I have changed my thinking about Tua coming back next year and I just can't see it happening now. I don't think they really have much of a choice, they are going to have to cut Tua and eat the dead money and just let 2026 be the start of a rebuild. It's doable and honestly the only course of action now in my opinion. There's really no upside that I can think of to keep Tua on the roster next year. I thought it was nearly impossible to cut him, but it's really not, in fact by 2027 the Dolphins would be in good shape salary cap wise if they do that. The rebuild just started. I think the only question left is whether McDaniel will be around in 2026.

Zach Wilson and 45 million dollar upgrade to the defense would be a better team than Tua and the current team. 

I think cutting Tua for 2026 would be an absolute nightmare scenario - cutting him in 2027 will always be the better option. Nearly $100M in dead money will basically torpedo the 2026 season before it's even started, as there's even less money to try and sign any kind of talent to fill in the (yet even greater) gaps we will have.

Do you think any prospective coach would want to walk into that scenario? Do you think McDaniel would want to stick around for this? Is it any coincidence that Fangio bolted to the Eagles when half his starting defense disappeared and there was no money to fix it?

Any real rebuild will start in 2027 when a good part of the account books are cleared (including Tua's guarantees), and a potential new Coach/GM combo has a proper cap to attempt it. Or to put it another way - having a huge amount of cap space in 2027 will be an attraction for any good prospects, but being in a cap-hell situation shifting things now will be the polar opposite.

Hill should be gone for 2026 which will help, but apart from a few lesser pieces, I think that's all we should realistically expect. Tua's cap hit is too large, and it's in everyone's best interest that he uses the rest of this season and the offseason to get himself physically and mentally fit for next season, with the proviso that he is specifically told that if he gets fat and slack partying too much during the offseason again (and doesn't at the very least regain his 2022-2023 form) he will stay on the bench, and it's likely to be the end of his career.

Even having him shine the bench with his ass for all of 2026 is about a $45 million better cap option than outright cutting him. As Hoodie has said, that's a lot of money to address some of our many other issues.

$45M sounds a lot like "closer to $50M."

This message should to go to Tua right now, even if he disappears off the sidelines the next two games:

Tubby Tua is over. If you want an NFL career after your current contract, you gotta stop laughing and get in proper shape. Mentally as well as physically.

Not by relying on doses of Ozempic as Tyreek claimed before last season. No Dad-bod beer gut on a boat like the last preseason. Start working your ass off right now, and don't stop.

It's either that, or prepare to spend all of 2026 holding a clipboard and shining your ass on a bench, and after that, to be out of the NFL forever. I hope you have a good financial planner, and not waste your millions like Tyreek on parties, plus size models, alimony and divorce lawyers.