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It should be abundantly clear that we have lost the war with Iran (https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/06/the-u-s-iran-memorandum-of-understanding-is-a-strategic-defeat-for-america/).  We spent billions of dollars, significantly depleted our military stockpile, lost a dozen American soldiers, and killed thousands of Iranians... and the result is that Iran has proven beyond a doubt that they can unilaterally shut down the Strait of Hormuz and hold the entire world economy hostage.  Trump's glorious Peace Agreement (provided attempt #40 sticks where the previous 39 have failed) solidifies Iran's right to retain ballistic missiles and their right to a non-military nuclear program, gives them $300 billion for reconstruction costs, and leaves open the possibility of a permanent Iranian toll fee to traverse the strait.

All of this to get a worse deal than the JCPOA treaty that Trump tore up during his first term (because of his ongoing inferiority complex with Obama).

But we know that Trump cannot stand to be humiliated.  So the question is: will we start a war with Cuba to pivot away from this debacle with Iran?  Marco Rubio (and many other Cuban-American Republicans) have been pushing HARD for such a war.  It has been a goal of Florida Republicans for decades.

Personally, I think war with Cuba is extremely likely.  It is both the stupidest outcome and the most vain one, which ticks two of Trump's favorite boxes.

Without a doubt. It will be another atrocity but Marco “Closet Case” Rubio is salivating over this.

Makes as much sense as Venezuela and Iran

Venezuela made sense. Iran did not. While I agree the war in Iran was bad for us, I'm sure I'm on the opposite side of you guys but I don't think we should have went to war with Iran unless we intended on getting rid of the Islamic regime running terror on that country. As it stands, we left them in a position to continue doing what they have always done. That's lie, do whatever they want and raise up terrorists who want to kill Israelis and Americans.

I can see why.  So he can get his grandparents property back.   I have Cuban friends who feel the same way.   If they do go to war, they need to to it decisively this time.  No blockades and stalled negotiations that last several months.   Send a couple hundred thousand troops over and clean out the joint within a week.

One of the many lies of Marco Rubio.  His family left Cuba three years before the revolution.

I think that war with Cuba was previously in the cards.  Now, I think it is not.  It's really hard to read these guys, but I think Marco wants war with Cuba but I just think that there isn't a taste for it.  Venezuela went about as good as it could have.  I think Trump that Iran would be the same, but now that is most likely irreparably damaged.

To get Iran back to where we were before, with no fee on the strait, it would take a 10 year ground war with Western allies to remove the regime and replace it with a moderate, friendly group that didn't intend on piracy.  That's likely not happening -- the American people don't want it, Trump doesn't want it, our allies don't want it.  But that's really the long-term "fix".  Whether or not it's worth it or not is a different story.

The bad scenario but will get us back to some level of normalcy, it's to do what Trump is now trying, which is to give Iran whatever they want, which is basically a bunch of money, remove sanctions, and the ability to tax the strait (which we will lie and say is an administrative fee for maintenance or some bullshit).  I'm OK with all of this except for the tax part.  I think it's probably unavoidable, but paying an extra piracy tax on oil for the rest of time doesn't sit well with me.  I'm not sure what other reasonable choice they have, though.

Iran's indefinite charging of Hormuz tolls (the "Trump tax") is a rational penalty for Trump's idiotic war; a totally unnecessary war where it bears mentioning that he killed most of their leadership.

And the problem is, he didn't continue the killing until said leadership was abolished.   I agree with Dave that we needed to get Iran back to the way it was before the Ayatollah's took over.  No fee on the strait and women unoppressed.

They replaced the leadership with new leaders.  Are you talking about killing off every member of their government and military?

So you are in favor of a 10-year-long ground war with Iran, then.

Before the Ayatollah's took over?

The Ayatollahs took over because of a CIA coup that overthrew the democratically elected government. 

I know you guys want to go back to the 1950s, but you can't put those worms back in the can.   

I know what you're trying to say here, but the wording is bad.

In 1953, the CIA (along with UK MI6) orchestrated a coup of Iran to replace the democratically-elected Prime Minister with a more-compliant Shah, essentially replacing a democracy with a monarchy.  This monarchy lasted until 1979, when the Islamic Revolution resulted in the overthrow of the Shah.  This was followed by a democratic referendum in which the Iranian people voted to make Iran an Islamic Republic (again).

So to say that Iran should be "like it was before the Ayatollah took over" is to say that they should have a king instead of a democracy.
But if you support Donald Trump in 2026, you're obviously already on board with the idea of an unaccountable king.

You misunderstand me.  We need to get Iran back to where we were before we started bombing them and they closed the strait.

I would love for women to be free, but don't kid yourself.  That's not what any of this is about and nobody in this administration gives one shit about that and we certainly aren't going to invade another country for it.  That's a fever dream.  That's more than we can chew, to transform their society.  At this point, I just don't want forever-piracy of an open waterway that I have to pay for.

Ain't gonna happen.  On Feb 27th Iran did not know they possessed the ability to shut down the world economy. They now know they have that power.

They are going to open and close the strait as it suits their needs.  Trump increased the power Iran has globally.

And it was a really stupid move! Even if you agree 100% with target list, Trump could have given the target list to Bibi, sold him the bombs cheap and vetoed the UN condemnation and had everything he wanted blown up without directly involving the US.