The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Leadoff: Johnny Damon vs. Coco Crisp: Can anyone argue with Damon's playmaking abilities? His numbers are dropping but will still be better than Coco in leadoff categories.
(+ to NYY)

#2 Hitter: Derek Jeter vs. Mark Loretta: Both fill the #2 hole nicely, with lots of contact. Expect .310+ average for both. Unfortunately for Loretta, his SB #'s are not great, and his hr's are low, even though he was in pitcher friendly Petco. Advantage to the consistent, younger Jeter.
(+ to NYY)

#3 Hitter: Alex Rodriguez vs. David Ortiz: This is a wash in my book. Ortiz has slightly better stats last year, but he could never swipe 20 SB. Push.
(BOS + NYY)

Cleanup Hitter: Gary Sheffield vs. Manny Ramirez: The nod here goes to Manny. He is almost a sure bet for .280, 40, 110, whereas Sheffield is on the decline, and those numbers were his ceiling during his prime. Although Sheff has more protection, Ramirez will have more production.
(+ to BOS)

#5 Hitter: Jason Giambi vs. Jason Varitek: I'm giving this one to the Yankees and here's why: Varitek had a great season last year, but so did Giambi. .280, 20, 70 were Varitek's #'s, comparable to Jason's, except for a few categories: HR's were different by 10, and Giambi's OBP was 100 pts higher.
(+ to NYY)

#6 Hitter: Hideki Matsui vs. Trot Nixon/Wily Mo Pena: Matsui is arguably the most potent #5 hitter, nevermind #6 hitter. Nixon and Pena have tons of untapped potential, but untill I see production this is Matsui's.
(+ to NYY)

#7 Hitter: Jorge Posada vs. Mike Lowell: Have you seen Lowell's #'s from last year?
2005 Numbers: .236/.298/.360, 500 AB, 56 R, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB
That's atrocious. Sure, he'll have more RBI oppurtunity, but I honestly think he's done. Posada, with #'s a little worse than Varitek, is far superior.
(+ to NYY)

#8 Hitter: Robinson Cano vs. Kevin Youkilis/J.T. Snow: Cano has .300 talent, and will be in a transition spot where he will have RBI oppurtunities. Youkilis has been touted as an OBP king for ages now. Snow, like Lowell is on the way out. Next year, this would either be a push or in favor of Youkilis, but for now, let's give it to Cano.
(+ to NYY)

#9 Hitter: Bernie Williams/Anyone vs. Alex Gonzalez/Any SS: To be honest, neither team should expect much out of this spot. Torre banters around with moving Cano to 9 to have a second leadoff. But for now, with supreme lack of talent at both spots, let's give this a push.
(BOS + NYY)

#1 Starter: Curt Schilling vs. Randy Johnson: The nod here goes to RJ. Neither are ideal #1's, but Johnson had more production and less injury last year, pivotal for an aging #1.
(+ to NYY)

#2 Starter: Matt Clement vs. Mike Mussina: This one's impossible to call. Moose is on the ropes now. Any year he could lose his effectiveness. Clement was good last year untill he became a baseball magnet. They both are major question marks, so we'll call it a draw.
(BOS + NYY)

#3 Starter: Chien Ming Wang vs. Josh Beckett: If Beckett doesn't get injured, he's one of baseball's best pitchers. Wang is good, and young, but the nod goes to the experienced Yankee Killer.
(+ BOS)


#4 Starter: Carl Pavano vs. David Wells: Like above, neither are great options. Wells flat out sucks, and Pavano was not only injured, but terrible when he wasn't. I wouldn't feel right about ever giving Pavano a point for what he did last year, so we'll give them both a point.
(BOS + NYY)

#5 Starter: Shawn Chacon vs. Tim Wakefield: You don't need to be young to master a knuckler. Wakefield has shown consistent mastery for several years. But ever since his departure from the Hell Hole known as Coors Field, he has been nothing short of masterful. Draw.
(BOS + NYY)

Long Relief/Middle Relief: Small, Wright, Villone, Sturze, Myers vs. Seanez, Hansen, Tavarez, Papelbon, Riske: The Red Sox have some Young Guns here, and some solid relievers. The Yankees have solid Long Relief, but the Middle Relief is somewhat suspect. Nod to Boston.
(+ to BOS)

Setup: Kyle Farnsworth vs. Mike Timlin: Timlin is good, but aging rapidly. And how could you say no to a pitcher growing consistent who has a 99 MPH Fastball?
(+ to NYY)

Closer: Mariano Rivera vs. Keith Foulke: This is like comparing a rat to Bill Gates in computer knowledge. An inconsistent, oft injured Foulke against Cy Young Runner Up and the best closer of all time Rivera. Need I say More?
(+ to NYY)

NYY-14
BOS-8

OK, although it seems a lopsided defeat, the Yankees only win based on matchups. I honestly believe that sans-Rivera, Boston has better pitching. I still see New York with a mildly better team, no less than 5 games.

There are a lot of things I'm not agreeing with here.  Let's start with Damon / Crisp.  Virtual tie with the batting average, Damon's OBP was slightly better as were his power numbers.  Crisp is much speedier.  So - a virtual tie all the way on offense.  Defensively Crisp gets to the same balls Damon does and can actually throw them to the cut off guy without 9 hopping them.  Damon is starting the year as a DH due to the same shoulder injury from last year, where Crisp is completely healthy (and 6 years younger).  I think that this is a wash.

Giambi might have had decent power numbers last year, .271 / 32 / 87 isn't a bad year.  He also missed almost 30 games due to injury.  Giambi's defense is awful, he's a complete liabilty on the field.  'Tek, on the other hand, hit for a better average (.281) was only ten home runs behind a "power hitter" (22) and 17 RBI's behind (70) - all while playing gold glove defense in THE most physical baseball position.  'Tek is far more important to Boston than Giambi to New York and, right now, he's a better player.

Mariano Rivera is, head and shoulders, better than Keith Foulke...but he's better than Nathan, Lidge, Gagne... your description of Foulke couldn't be more incorrect and it's based solely on last year.  We are talking about a guy with 190 career saves and an ERA at 3.23 - all for a guy that has been in the closer role full time for less than five seasons.  Foulke isn't the bum you make him out to be, and Boston has more depth in the bullpen to get TO him and not over work his arm.  Rivera can't do it all and the Yankees lean on him far too much.

David Wells "flat out sucks?"  This man is going to Boston's number 4 starter and won 15 games last year.  You compared him to Carl Pavano, so will I:  Pavano can't stay healthy (Wells knocks on 200 innings every year) and Pavano has only won more than 10 games twice in his entire career.  Pavano has also only reached 200 IP twice in his career.

Your match ups are kind of wacked - batting order makes the entire world go round?  Seeing that teams play defense as well, let's factor everything in:  batting, average, OBP, defense, health:

C:      'Tek / Posada - edge, Boston
1B:     Giambi / Youkalis - even
2B:     Cano / Loretta - edge, Boston
SS:     Jeter / Gonzo - edge, New York
3B:     ARod / Lowell - edge, New York
LF:      Manny / Matsui - edge, Boston
RF:      Nixon / Sheffield - edge, New York
CF:      Crisp / Damon - edge, Boston
DH:      Ortiz / anyone - edge, Boston

Pitching:

#1  Schilling / Johnson  - push
Both are again and both look very sharp in spring training.

#2  Beckett / Mussina - edge, Boston

#3  Wakefield / Chacon - edge, Boston

#4   Wells / Wright?  Small?  - edge, Boston

#5   Clement  / Pavano?  Wright?  Small?  Edge, Boston

Bullpen anchors for both teams should be solid.  Where Boston has insurance at the stopper in two forms (Papelbon, Hansen), NYY has nothing to turn to if the Sandman goes down.  Farnsworth has great stuff and is inconsistent.  Tavarez will most likely be dropped by Boston.  Mike Myers was a great NYY pick up.  Over all, however, Boston has an edge on bullpen.

Bottom line is this:  If Boston and New York played 50 times a year the end-season line would be 25/25.  It's how we play against the rest of the division that decides the whole thing.  Toronto has Boston's number, Tampa Bay has New York's and we both slaughter Baltimore.  It's going to come to do who figures out how to pull the thorn out of their side quicker, not how they match up head to head.  Once that happens, it's a coin flip.

Dude, did you just call Giambi vs. Youkilis a wash?  >:D

Everything else is very similar. The Yankees or Red Sox can win the matchups by 10 and it would still be too close to call. Both teams rotations are in shambles, but they HAVE been and they still win.

Just gotta wait until September again.

Yep, sure did.  Youk's average is better and his OBP is better.  His defense is head and shoulder's above Giambi's.  But Giambi is a game changer with one swing of his bat and mauls the ball, his power numbers rock.

So - if we're talking "all in" - they are a wash.

In 2004 Youk's OBP was .367 with a .260 Average. In 2005 it was .400 with a .278 Average. For his 2 year career of 116 games combined it's .376 with a .265 Average.

Giambi's career OBP is .413 with a .295 BA. Not to mention, the power he brings. Aside from 2004 when he was injured/dying from steroids, he has been an MVP type player who can still produce at a high level as last year proved.

Unless you are talking about Youkilis' potential which I heard is very nice as far as OBP goes, he isn't close to being Jason Giambi. Assuming Youkilis wins a Gold Glove at first and Giambi does his usual "throw the ball to Hideki Matsui trying to turn a doubleplay" defense, he is still the better player by far.