The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Well, Bell found out he wasn't worth as much as he thought he was.  The Jets signed him to a 4 year deal for $52.5M ($13.125M/year).  Last year his options were: A) Play under the franchise tag and get $14.4M or B) Sign a 5 year deal with the Steelers for $70M ($14M/year) with $33M guaranteed in the first two years.  So he sat out a year and earned nothing, only to sign for less money with only about two teams interested in signing him.

For an NFL RB, NYJ's offer was FAR superior to PIT's.  Let's talk about the guarantees, since that's what really matters to a 27-year-old running back:

The 2018 franchise tag would have been $14.5M, all guaranteed.

The phrasing of "$33M guaranteed in the first two years" tells you something important about PIT's offer: the $33M wasn't guaranteed if he wasn't on the team in year 2.  The actual amount of FULLY guaranteed money in the PIT offer was only the $10M signing bonus (https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1019324630425915394), which is $4.5M less than Bell would have gotten under the franchise tag.  However, there was also a roster bonus of another $10M payable in year 1, so if we're being realistic, unless PIT cut Bell between the signing of the contract and the start of the season he would have made $20M in the first year (https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/10/05/steelers-offered-leveon-bell-47-million-over-three-years/).

In contrast, the amount of FULLY guaranteed money in the NYJ offer was $28M (https://twitter.com/AKinkhabwala/status/1105872471092350977), which is more than the $22M Todd Gurley got or the $25M David Johnson got.  It's a very good haul for a free-agent RB.

Considering Bell's age and his position, the contract he signed with the Jets is definitely better than the offer from the Steelers.  The only question is whether it is better enough to justify turning down the $14.5M franchise tag, which ultimately comes down to whether or not you believe he still would have been able to get this same contract after playing 16 more games for PIT.

Wow. ... I listened to sports radio all day yesterday and your the only one I heard with that opinion. Either you are his agent, a relative or just love to be the opposing voice. The deal in no way comes close to making up the $14.5 million he lost.

no you don’t have to assume same.  you just have to assume the contract would be no worse than 14.4 million less.

I did provide all the numbers, you know.

To be clear: are you saying he should have played under the franchise tag, or that he should have accepted PIT's offer with less guaranteed money?  If the former, what dollar value do you put on his risk of injury, or decline in performance?

Bell held out for more guaranteed money, and - in a market with declining valuation of RBs - he got more guaranteed money than any other RB under contract now (except Barkley who is on a fixed rookie scale).  How is "more guaranteed money than any other negotiated RB contract on the books" a failure?

Spider $28M for 2 years is not more than $33M for two years. Not to mention he's lost a year of service earning at least $12M that can't be recouped.  There is no way the Steelers would not have paid him for year two, I'm sure his play would not have decreased to allow for that.  Now if he had suffered some type of career ending injury during year 1, perhaps he would have only earned $20M (or $22M depending on which report you read), then and only then is the $28M guaranteed from the Jets a better deal.  I understand the need for getting as much guaranteed money as possible, but this ended up being a less lucrative deal for Bell.  He may have gotten a better deal if he hadn't strung along his teammates and the Steelers organization last year by saying he was going to report, only to never show up.  Owners take notice of this and don't want to deal with that if they don't have to.

If the Steelers believed that, they would have had no problem guaranteeing him that $33M.  Q.E.D.

You cannot compare guaranteed money to non-guaranteed money.  Ask DeMarco Murray how quickly the fortunes of a 27-year-old RB can change.  PIT wasn't even convinced enough to fully guarantee the first year!  They left themselves an out in case they wanted to cut him during the preseason.

What does a year of rest do for an NFL running back in terms of longevity and future production? Is it age or wear-and-tear that is the most significant contributor to performance decline in the latter part of the career?

I would say that wear and tear takes the biggest toll, but age has to be considered too. Bell is only 27. Time away would benefit an older player more I think than a younger guy.