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It would be a terrible move financially for him since he won't drop past us at 5 now and if it is career threatening injury then he may never see money again, but just for argument's sake he does not declare: Who are we drafting? Would you want us to pick the best available player at that spot or hope that we trade down a bit and gain more picks?

I'm not impressed with any QB prospects other than Burrows and Tua, so I would say draft best available Oline, EDGE, secondary and get a RB mid draft.

I'm leaning towards that too, although I want to take a long look at Herbert. He seems like a Trubisky type in that he isn't nearly good enough for a Top 10 pick but someone will take him there just out of need.

I heard this is a loaded RB class too so I'm inclined to use the Texans pick on one of those if the player seems like a game changer. I think our offense will jump a lot in 2020 while the defense will just make modest gains. 2021 can be about the defense.

I watched Herbert last night in the Rose bowl, and no thanks.  He's like a poor man's version of Tannehill, had very poor passing stats too...something like 130 yards and 1 INT with no TD passes...he had 3 rushing TDs though, something he's not known for, as he had one all year.

Let the Chargers take him then. If Tua does not declare then I would only want to take a QB if it was in the middle rounds as a project. I'm always skeptical of those fringe QBs who have a great combine and somehow find themselves in the 1st round, I want to avoid any guys like that.

Even if he does declare,  it doesn’t mean you are getting him.  Four teams draft before you.  And others can trade to jump in front.

I'm in the camp that 80-90% that Tua stays in school

I know all the talk out there about getting medical clearance and advice and I really believe that ALOT of his decision will be based on his family.  I believe they tell him to stay in school, rehab, get better, come back and show the NFL and teams that he is ready and put away fears over the injury.

I think this also has a domino effect that also has some other Juniors on the fence about going to the NFL and staying back another year.

We'll see

The teams ahead of us are not taking him for various reasons. The Bengals are getting Burrow and the other 3 teams either drafted a QB in the first round last year or they have one signed to big money for the next few years. However, the main issue would be a team jumping ahead of us for him but I don't think that will happen. It's one thing to use your first rounder on an injured QB, it's quite another to trade a shitload of picks to draft him.

I actually think if he doesn't declare it simplifies things. If Tua doesn't declare then we rebuild the lines and select a QB down the line. Our lines need to be rebuilt and before we take a project QB we need to address that. I think we only draft a first round QB if we somehow could get Burrow or Tua declares and that scares me. I hate that Tua is now a "risky" pick.

You can't judge a player on one game.  Not to mention I hate judging players on Bowl games, when their previous game was almost a full month earlier.

I'd love for the Dolphins to draft Herbert.

That's not happening.  It's January and the guy is still on crutches, so teams aren't taking big risks, like moving up, in order to draft a player coming off an injury.  Right now I see he is projected to go somewhere in the 10-20 range, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall further.  Miami could get him with their 3rd first round pick.

Agreed. But not at #5. I think they might be able to get him later. May have to move up from #18, but that's certainly possible. Seen a mock that had Indy taking him I believe at maybe 13? If they don't get him I'm not in love with him or anything, but certainly think he's worthy of a 1st round draft choice. He reminds me more of Ben Roethlisberger. He's a big guy and moves around pretty well for a big guy. He'll be tough to bring down in the pocket. Strong arm. Has plenty of experience. The knock on him seems to be that he locks onto receivers, but lot of college QB's do that simply because their guys are normally open and realize once they get into the NFL that's not always the case. He may develop into a franchise QB and he may not, but you run the same risk with any QB including Tua.

I'm still not in favor of drafting a QB. There are other holes that need to be filled that I think are of a higher priority. Spots on both lines. Without a substantial O line to protect (insert the name of your dream QB here) that poor bastard will end up in concussion protocol and be chased out of town as a failure. DB, especially now with Howard being in the trouble that he's in. RB. Fitzy can obviously win games, and we have no idea what Rosen can bring to the table.

Fitzy would be a VERY good tutor for Herbert.

I agree there are other holes to fill, but we have lots of picks this year, and next; I can't remember when Miami had so many significant drafting opportunities in a two year span.  I think it's important to draft a QB this year, IF the right player is there when it's Miami's turn to pick.  Not that he would play that much in 2020, but it would be nice to have three guys competing for the job, and learning throughout the season.

Given Miami has (3) first round picks I don't think it makes sense to move up to take him, just use the #5 pick on him if they really want him.  Because if you move up you will be losing a later round draft pick.  He would be drafted higher than he rates out, which means he would get paid more.  The downside is the guy, or position, you would have drafted at #5 you now take at #18.  So as long as there are quality O-lineman available at #18 you really haven't lost anything (unless there is some stud left tackle that you think you have to have).

There are plenty of guys that will be available at #5 that won't be there at #18. So you have to decide who you want and who you don't. If they think that much of him to take him at #5, I won't have a big problem with that, but I think they would rather take another position at #5 and then come back and get him later if they can and if not....well that's life. That's how I feel about him, get him if you really like him, otherwise get him if you sorta like him and he's available when you pick.

I've seen several mocks that have Herbert going to the Chargers right behind us, so we would have to take him at #5 if we really wanted him. Using our own #5 pick on someone and then moving up from 18th to 6th will cost us our other two 1st rounders. He won't be there at 18 and if he is, then something happened like an injury or arrest.

I honestly don't get the Justin Herbert love. The times I've watched him have not been impressed. Seems like a big kid with a strong arm who doesn't ave any accuracy. You know ... the most important part of an NFL QB. I have yet to see anyone teach accuracy in throwing. Maybe timing like on a long ball but not accuracy to a receiver.

You've not watched him enough. His accuracy is just fine. He had an off game yesterday against a really good defense, but he had a couple of big time throws to finish off the game and they lose that game if not for his 3 TD runs. The kid has all the tools and the smarts. Doesn't mean he'll be a franchise QB, but doesn't mean he won't either. And I don't get the comparison with Rosen and saying he's not emotional or a leader, I've seen lots of emotion and leadership from him and his team loves him.

Read some scouting reports from the experts:

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2019/12/06/2020-nfl-draft-justin-herbert-scouting-report/

https://nflmocks.com/2019/10/29/2020-nfl-draft-justin-herbert-scouting-report/2/

I watched him against Utah and then the Rose Bowl. Pretty much the biggest stage he's been on this year and neither made him look very good. If you can't carry your college team then it's highly unlikely you can an NFL team.

But he DID carry his team against Wisconsin, just not by throwing for huge yardage.

I've watched more than just the Rose Bowl of him, and he's just not impressive so I agree with you CF. 

I skipped everything posted to say Tua is a terrible choice..i hope he goes back because then there is no option of drafting him

Is this the guy that has a concussion history now? at least 3 now in his collegiate career.

I didn't see anything about 3 concussions with a quick google search, just the one he suffered when he basically hurt his whole body during the hip injury play.

I wouldn't take Tua if he declares.   I think everyone should look at that mock posted in another thread.   That builds up your trenches so well that both units could be a force next season.  

You have four picks in the first two rounds in 2021.   That could easily be packaged to move up for Lawrence/Fields, both of whom are much better prospects than any QB in this draft, Burrow included.

Nevermind. I'm thinking of the Baylor QB

The cost of moving up to take Lawrence would be astronomical, talking 3 1st rounders and maybe more. The bar was set very high with what the Eagles and Rams gave up for their guys. We have too many holes to pay that price.

The question is if we don't draft Tua then where are we getting a QB from? Good QB's don't become free agents and it's much harder to find a develop a franchise QB in the later rounds than it is in the Top 10 or 15 of the draft. Right now just seems like our best shot at a franchise QB, I don't know when the next opportunity will be.

You've already got two first rounders and two second rounders at your disposal next year.   I think that's plenty of ammo to move up to get Lawrence/Fields.  Especially if one of the top teams doesn't need a QB.   

I know we have the ammo, but we also have a ton of holes on this team. The whole point of "Tank for Tua" was to gut the team and be bad enough that we can draft Tua. Well, if he declares then here we are without having to use multiple 1st and 2nd rounders to move up. It's just not worth it to me since we need these picks to fill out multiple spots.

But if he doesn't declare, or more importantly, he does but he can't play this year, you'd be filling those holes anyway.   Most of the holes are in the trenches.   That guy's mock fills those holes spectacularly.   

QB isn’t an immediate need.  Yeah, Fitz ain’t a decade long plan.  But he is decent enough for a couple of years.

If he doesn't declare, then I am all on board for using the #5 pick on an OL, as well as drafting another one later in the round and using free agency to address it too. I would use all available resources via cap space and draft picks on the lines if Tua doesn't declare.

If Tannehill has taught us anything it's that we need a freaking O-line and running game before a decent QB can look good.  Few QBs can excel without help. We need to concentrate on the trenches unless someone like Burrow falls into our laps.

Of course, a new O-Line coach is key with new O-Line personnel, but every year you can buy these guys in free agency or draft them. How often are we in a position to draft a highly rated franchise QB with our own draft pick? I fully expect us to be closer to 10 wins next season rather than 2 wins, so it's now or who knows?

Other than Burrow ... who is highly rated? We aren't getting him and anyone else is pretty much the same crap shoot as everyone else in the top 7-8 QBs and the same second tier QBs next year and the year after and so on.

A highly rated QB that can't walk screams of desperation. Do not take Tua, please!

LOL ... tell us how you really feel. In all honesty I felt that way too but have come around to being ok if they do draft him. He's a crap shoot but the ceiling is pretty high with him if it works out. Besides ... he'll most likely have another year to get NFL healthy.

Of course Tua is highly rated. Burrow appears to be better but don't dismiss the kid because you don't want us to draft him. There isn't one mock draft that doesn't rate him as a top prospect or has him falling past the Chargers if he does declare.

If he does declare for the draft, start talking yourself into him because the only way we don't draft him is if some team leapfrogs us.

Oh yeah, he is absolutely redshirting the first year. Not just to be 100% healthy but to learn the system. I think that is the best way to go, have the brand new O-Line gel in 2020 so they are ready to protect him in 2021.

Let's not forget, at the beginning of the season he was the next great QB, like suck for Luck quality.  His health is the ONLY issue.  He will be a superstar if he's healthy, but that's a big IF.

I think you are in for a letdown. I'd say the odds of Miami taking Tua at #5 are about 50/50 and I'd say the odds of him being available at #5 are about 90/10.

I don't think he will be a superstar even if he could stay healthy.

Sure, that's kind of where I am at too. I just feel that with 3 first rounders, we can afford to take the risk for a potential game changing QB. Since no good QBs ever become free agents, this is our best shot at a franchise QB. Only alternative is a stopgap like Bridgewater who plays over his head or try to find a diamond in the rough in the later rounds.

We'll know more the month before when they get a better look at his medicals an whatnot, but if he declares and team doctors say he will recover 100% then 90% we take him at 5 if he is there. We can't do anything about teams jumping us but with such a heavy Top 5 of talent, I don't think a team would pass up a Chase Owens or Andrew Thomas unless they were blown away with an offer. Teams may not do that for Tua because of the injury.

Keep in mind that if Tua were 100% healthy, MIA would have no chance of getting him with the #5 pick.  None.  Either Tua and Burrow would go to CIN and WSH (in some order), or some team would trade up with DET/NYG to get him.  So I say count your blessings.

This is another Laremy Tunsil situation.  MIA should not even be in a position to draft Tua right now, and it's a miracle that they might be able to get him.

^ Tunsil dropped  for something that had no direct impact on performance or ability to actually play. Tua will drop because he can't walk.

Tunsil dropped because there were concerns he may have off-the-field problems.
Tua may drop because of concerns in his ability to recover his on-the-field play.
Off-the-field problems still matter.  Ask any team who has signed Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon.

In any case, given MIA's draft position, an injured Tua is the only possible Tua they could have acquired at that slot.  In a certain sense, this may have worked out as well as could be expected for the Dolphins.  And if MIA drafts Tua and he sits for a year, then leads the league again in negative point differential next season, the possibility exists that MIA could either a) draft Lawrence and trade Tua for a later first or b) keep Tua and Lawrence for an RG3/Cousins scenario.

We finished the year 5-4, the only reason we finished the year with the worst point differential were Weeks 1 & 2. So, we're not going to be competing for that top draft pick next year.

No team ahead of us would draft Tua due to drafting 1st round QBs in 2019 or having a high priced QB signed for many years in Detroit's case. So, even if Tua were healthy we would be able to draft him at 5 as long as some team didn't leapfrog us. If he were healthy, I would say that's possible. With his injury? Incredibly unlikely. People second guess every GM who makes a big draft trade to go in the Top 5, but to do so for someone coming off a major injury? Puts his job on the line.

Let's just hope that Tua goes back to Alabama and we don't have to make the decision. I'd much rather we just take healthy players in the draft. There's enough of a risk of injury taking healthy players, why add to the risk taking players who already have injury concerns? I guess maybe I'd be more on board if I thought Tua was a slam dunk generational talent like many seem to think, but I don't. The odds of Tua becoming the next Brady are about the same as someone drafting the next Brady in the 5th round in my humble opinion.

Edit: Just heard that he's entering the NFL draft. Hope I'm wrong about the kid.

it is official he is entering the draft

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/06/tua-tagovailoa-to-enter-2020-nfl-draft/

Agreed.  I am a Bama fan (for the last 35+ years, so I don't get bent out of shape about Saban & his time here) and I believe he should have stayed at Bama and rehab.  But I get it, he's gonna be a Top-10 pick, maybe even a Top-5, but I'm NOT big on drafting someone who has history of being injured:

tightrope surgery on both ankles
sprained right knee October 2018
obviously, hip displacement this Fall

I know everyone gets dinged on some level, but I just listed some pretty decent injuries for a QB, who is suppose to be mobile in the pocket.

If he had half of these problems, I would love to have him. Knowing this and seeing him play the last 2 season, I'm anxious to take him.  He could be great, and he could be injury prone in the NFL.  NFL can be brutal for players.

Absolutely, it's definitely a concern and I don't know if I would be on board with taking him if we didn't have two other 1st rounders plus two 2nd rounders. But, considering his talent level and our obvious need for a franchise QB, I'd draft him even if he hobbled onto the stage with crutches.

if he wasn't injured, we couldn't get him at 5 .. end of story .. as it is we have a chance to get him at 5 but could still get leapfrogged.

Sometimes drafting a player with an injury history works out sometimes it doesn't.  Drafting a TE with a history of back injuries is probably more foolhardy than drafting a QB with a hip injury. 


I doubt you get leapfrogged.  A GM/coach would literally be putting his job on the line.  Drafting a player that doesn't work out is one thing.  Trading up to the top-5 to draft an injured player that doesn't workout will get you fired. 

Exactly, if a GM trades away multiple first rounders for a kid who plays 12 games in his first 2 years, he's gone.

As far as not being able to draft him if he were healthy, I disagree with that. The way the chips fell, he would probably still be around at 5 anyway because the Giants and Skins selected a 1st round QB in 2019 and the Lions are tied to Stafford at big money for at least a few more years. It just worked out that he or Burrow would've been available for us regardless of health.

The Redskins are the probably the most likely to go after Tua if it happens. Hard to say how they feel when they are basically starting over with a whole new staff.

This can't be ruled out entirely, they are an incredibly poorly run franchise and abandoning the 15th overall pick in 2019 despite not surrounding him with talent is something they would do. I do feel that it is still very unlikely but you can never predict what dumb people do.

The tight end went in the second round,  the quarterback is being talked about top five. Apples and oranges.

Maybe they will trade Dwayne Haskins to Miami for a second round pick.   :)

Before AZ traded Rosen after just one year, I would have thought this more unlikely than I do now!

Yes, because Arizona is also a poorly run franchise  ;D

In that case the GM was the same and went against every draft rule drafting QBs in the first round during consecutive seasons. At least in Washington's case it's completely different decision makers who are not tied to past selections.

The fact that Miami has 2 other 1st round picks is not really relevant because the fact is that if Miami drafts Tua that means they are not going to draft another QB this year and most likely not next year either. Essentially you are all in on a young QB that could be over a year away from helping your team and might never be the franchise QB you hope he will become. That's a big risk in my opinion regardless of how many other picks you have. Miss big on the QB which could happen through no fault of the kid or your coaching staff (like if Injury prevents him from becoming the QB he could have been) and you set your team back another couple of years looking for a QB. At least with a QB who's healthy you can judge him based solely on his talent and not be wondering if he just doesn't have the talent level for the NFL or if it's the injury holding him back and maybe he'll get healthy and maybe he won't? You're basically betting the next couple of years on the kid whereas you might pull the plug on another QB in a year if he doesn't pan out right away.

The ONLY way I would take Tua is if I was pretty sure that Rosen had a really good shot of winning the starting QB spot over Fitz next year so that even if Tua never becomes the QB you expect, you have another young QB competing for the postion. If they are planning to ditch Rosen, I wouldn't do it.

No matter who you draft there is a risk.  If you draft Tua there is the risk of injury and the risk he won't develop into an NFL caliber player.  If you draft Tyler Huntley there isn't as much of a risk from injury but it still exists just less, but there is less evidence on film that he is capable of being an NFL QB.  It really comes down to who has the overall best shot and becoming a franchise QB.

Tua looks like the best QB coming out this year, not named Burrows.  His upside is astronomical.  I'm confident enough to say the only way he doesn't work out is if he's injured.

But if you draft Tyler Huntley, the expectations aren't the same so you're not putting all your future plans for the next 3 years into Tyler Huntley. You give him a chance and you're willing to cut him loose at any point that you feel he's not the guy. Draft Tua and he's gonna get a long leash to prove he can do it or he can't. It's not the same situation. Personally I feel the best overall shot is Herbert. He may not have as high of an upside as Tua, but he doesn't have the associated health risk either.

His downside could be unavailable. The best ability is availabilty.

Disagree.  If I had two well defined choices. 

Player A has a 50-50 chance of having the skill set of Dan Marino (great) and a 50-50 chance of being JaMarcus Russel (horrible).

Player B is Josh McCown level of skill set.  Decent but not great nor horrible.

I am taking player A.

I would rather have a player with a high ceiling and a low floor than an average player.  If it doesn't work out I try again.  But I am not getting to the superbowl on a guy with a low ceiling and faster than with a complete bust.         

Just like the team holding the #2 pick.

If you think Burrow or a healthy Tua makes it past Dan Snyder's Washington Redskins because they are too invested in Dwayne Haskins, you're crazy.  Again, it is a miracle that the Dolphins MAY still be in a position to draft Tua.

But you don't have to take either. The draft is  wonderful that way.

If that's the case then we either trade down for more picks or hopefully take one of the great O-Line guys who are supposed to go Top 5. As long as we don't pass on him if he falls to us at 5.

There really aren't any O-linemen this year who are expected to go top-5. Not that it is a bad year for O-line, because I see it as a pretty solid O-line class...just no super-duperstar at the top of the pack.

I would love to see Miami take OC Tyler Biadasz, out of Wisconsin. I think he is a decent margin better than the #2 OC, Creed Humphrey.

I've posted on other platforms many times how I would love Tyler Biadasz with our second or third 1st round pick. 

I've seen plenty of mock drafts that have Andrew Thomas going 3rd or 4th with others having Willis Jr. in the Top 6 as well. I'll take whomever is the best player available at 5 if Tua is gone as long as it's not a WR.

Yeah, he's just a beast, and a big reason why the Badgers run Jonathan Taylor up the middle so often. If he makes it to either the Phins or the Niners, I'll definitely get his jersey.

I'd like to know if the resident patriot fan thinks that the patriots would leapfrog everyone to grab Tua.

That's not me but I'll chime in anyway. In order for the Lions to move all the way back into the 20s, the Patriots would basically have to give them three 1st rounders and maybe more since their picks are always in the 20's or even 30s. In fact, definitely more since their picks are basically high 2nd rounders. Belichick wouldn't do that, he is more likely to draft a guy like Jordan Love if he falls or some other project. They just don't have the draft capital to do it.

It’s not always about the No. 1 pick. QBs remaining in the playoffs ... Ryan Tannehill (No. 8 ), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10), DeShaun Watson (No. 12), Lamar Jackson (No. 32), Aaron Rodgers (No. 24), Jimmy Garropolo (second round), Russell Wilson (third round) and Kirk Cousins (fourth round).

Sure, it's very possible to find a franchise QB in the 3rd round, but it's also a lot harder. It also helps if you can sit on the bench for a few years and watch Hall of Famers play like Jimmy and Aaron did, but we don't have that luxury and considering Brady's age, neither do the Pats.

They should take the best available QB with their 1st pick as long as he isn't projected as a 4th rounder. They're all out of options now and great QBs just don't become free agents very often.

And just in case you've forgotten, QB's not in the playoffs or not starting in the playoffs...Kyler Murray (No. 1), Daniel Jones (No. 6), Dwayne Haskins (No. 15), Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen (No. 7), Mitch Trubisky (No. 2), Jared Goff (No. 1),  Carson Wentz (No. 2), Paxton Lynch (No. 26), Jameis Winston (No. 1), Marcus Mariota (No. 2), Blake Bortles (No. 3), Johnny Manziel (No. 22) and Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32).

Picking a QB in the 1st round is not a good indicator of a team's future success with that QB.

In front of 5?  No way.  That would cost way too much.  BB isn't really a leapfrogging kinda guy.  He is more of a trade back and grab guys he thinks have fallen.  

OTOH, if Tua's stock really drops and he is still around in the 15ish range, I could see BB trading up ahead of your second pick.  

The unknown is Stidham.  None of us knows how exactly he has been progressing during the season.  He looked pretty good in the preseason games.  Maybe BB thinks he already has his next franchise QB.  He certainly has been acting like he doesn't really need Brady.  Not unlike how he was towards Bledsoe at the start of 2001. 

    

Actually this year actually has a decent crop of FA QBs.  Granted the ones that can be described as great are getting pretty old...but there are quite a few.

I'm under the assumption that guys like Brees and Brady return to their teams, I don't think for one second Brady is going to be a Buccaneer or Bear.

That's the thing and I have said this before; just because a QB is taken Top 5 doesn't mean he is a Top 5 talent. Lots of teams just draft out of need and not the skill level of the player and this only happens with Quarterbacks. So, guys like Mayfield and Bortles and Trubisky and Darnold are nowhere near the talent level where they got drafted.

**************  MOD NOTE *************************

I split off the tail end of this thread and merged it with the "Where will Brady play next year" thread over in the Around the NFL section as the discussion evolved from being about Tua or the Dolphin's draft pick and became about the fate of Tom Brady (and a little about Belichick)  feel free to continue the discussion over there and continue discussing the Dolphin's draft in this thread.

Thank you for your understanding.

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