The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

He's got all the upside and none of the downside and the downside of Tua isn't just his injury history, there's several things about him I'm not enamored with. I don't really care for the fact that he's a lefty. I don't really care for the fact that he's smaller in stature. I don't really care for the fact that he gets out of the pocket to make plays a good bit. Herbert is more the traditional dropback QB and I know that times are changing and yet if you give me my choice, I'd rather have the guy that does it from the pocket. I'm old school like that.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2873295-2020-nfl-draft-rumors-justin-herbert-solidified-stock-at-senior-bowl-practice

I'll take a pocket passer every time.

I like the left handed aspect.  Yeah your offensive line needs to play differently, but so does the opposing defensive line. 

However, the team with the QB has all off season and every practice to get use to it.  The opposing team has one week.  Kinda like being the only team playing a 3-4 defense when 31 other teams play 4-3 or having a left footed punter when everyone else has a righty.

However, I am starting to like Herbert better than Tau. The good news for the Dolphins is very good chance one of the 3 top QBs. should be available at #5.

I like Herbert, and I'd really be OK with either Herbert or Tua for Miami. If Tua, then Fitz gets another year to start. If Herbert, I'd think he has a real chance of beating out Fitz in camp for the starting spot.

Every year, there is a draft.  And because of this, every year people talk themselves into whoever happens to be available that year.  Unless this player made a clear and significant jump from the previous year, I'm much less of a fan of these "best we can do this year" QBs as a top 10 pick.

I greatly prefer QBs that have buzz a full year before they're draft eligible; QBs like Lawrence, Tua, and even Lamar Jackson.  I think there is less chance of a bust with those players.  While I acknowledge there's a risk Tua may not fully recover from his injury, I believe there is almost no risk that Tua flops due to pure lack of ability to play.

There were projections that Herbert would have been taken in the 1st round last year if he came out but decided to stay another year at Oregon. There's been a buzz about him for over a year, it's just not been as big as Tua, Lawrence etc, but before last year no one ever heard of Joe Burrow. Herbert just didn't have the 1 huge year, he's been very solid for 4 straight years albeit at Oregon, not Alabama , Clemson or LSU.

I absolutely prefer Tua over Herbert. However, if one team trades ahead of us for Tua then I can talk myself into drafting Herbert if enough people are on board with it. I just don't want to be one of those teams that selects the draft's 39th best player at #5 just because he is a QB.

Agree completely...Herbert would have been considered a top-10 pick last year, just like this year. 6'6" QBs who have accuracy and a modicum of mobility will always make scouts drool a bit.

Herbert is Tannehill, no thanks.  I'd rather take Love over Herbert, there is way better talent with that first 1st round pick than Herbert, and Love can be taken later in the draft.  This is all if Tua isn't available anymore of course.

Tua will never start a 16 game season in the NFL

Hell, we have plenty of holes to fill. But we also have plenty of draft ammo. You could actually draft 2 QBs if you wanted to. Grade out all the QBs and pick in order of who's left. Someone will be there at 5, someone will be there at 18, and someone will be there in the 2nd round. Would make for an interesting camp, haha.

I would hate for us to trade up for anything.  We could Sign Vaiti or another FA tackle, sign the best guard as there are a couple in FA, draft Tyler Biadasz from Wisconsin and put him at the other guard with Kilgore at center...can move Biadasz to center in 2021...draft a project tackle in the 2nd or 3rd round. Offensive line would be world's better and we still have many draft picks for EDGE QB RB CB etc.

I don't remember anyone in 2018 salivating about the 2019 draft being the the year Herbert could be available, and he didn't have the kind of miracle 2019 season that propelled Burrow to #1.  Herbert's 2019 was unexceptional; not bad, but certainly no reason to be more confident in him as a prospect than a year ago.

He also didn't have what could be a career ending injury.

Just because you don't remember them talking about Herbert, doesn't mean it didn't happen. Maybe you never heard about him because he decided to return to Oregon instead of entering the draft. If he had, you would have certainly known who he is. By the time the draft rolls around you'll have heard plenty.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/03/justin-herbert-oregon-quarterback-2019-nfl-draft

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Draft-Scouting-Reports/Scouting-Report-Justin-Herbert.asp

He seems like a guy that has the mold to be a great franchise QB without the results so far. I don't know if I would want him with the #5 pick, seems too high for someone with very nice college numbers but nothing spectacular. Not even Top 30 in yards. The Chargers will absolutely take him at #6 though, he won't fall any farther than that unless an arrest or injury comes up.

Sorry, I said "2018" where I should have said "2017" (as 2018 would be the season directly before Herbert's first eligible draft).  What I'm saying is that with great prospects like Luck, there was a lot of talk of their future availability during draft analysis the year before, just as we discussed Tua last year and are discussing Lawrence now.  Herbert never had that kind of discussion.

Once again: if Tua had an injury-free 2019, there's no way he makes it past Dan Snyder's pick.  If MIA wanted a less risky pick at QB, they should have kept starting Rosen.

Any QB available at the 5th pick is going to have concerns about a) injury b) character or c) talent.  I'm fine with option A.

Do that and volunteer for hard knocks.

The thing is Miami doesn't have to take a QB with their 5th pick, they can draft a LT.  The Chargers will take a QB at #6, and after that, unless someone trades up, no QB will be taken before Miami's next pick.  So Miami could either get Tua or Herbert with their later first round pick.

I agree with you completely.

There will never be a better time to get a franchise QB than right now. Great quarterbacks almost never become free agents and we won't be bad enough next year to get the #1 pick and draft the kid from Clemson. Not saying Tua or Herbert are guarantees but it's a lot safer bet that Tua becomes a franchise QB than it is some project we draft in the 3rd round.

I'm firmly convinced that if Tua stays healthy he's a star.  His ability to read a defense and his accuracy is top notch.

Yeah, I don't think there are many arguments about what he can do on the field, he has all the tools. Just have to worry about injuries and that's a legit concern. However, the devastation to this fanbase that will happen if we pass on him and he makes 9 Pro Bowls with the Chargers is going to be enough to break even the oldest fan.

Would that be much different if the Dolphins draft Tua then the Chargers draft Herbert and Tua spends more time on IR than on the field and Herbert becomes a franchise QB? 

I assume you mean this draft? Regardless, how many top QBs in the league right now were drafted 1-5? Mark my words, drafting Tua will be second to drafting Dion Jordan only because the Phins moved up to get him.

Most franchise QBs are not top 5 picks right now.

Slightly less than half (15) of the qbs that started week 17 for their team were first round.

This argument suggests drafting Herbert is also a bad idea, because if MIA wants a franchise QB, they should:

- pick a QB in the 6th round
- find an anticipated top pick in freefall and pick him in the bottom third of the first round
- find another team's discarded starter (with injury concerns)
- pick a QB in the 3rd round
- find a QB with questions about his ability to adapt to the pro game and pick him in the middle of the first

Or, you know, pick in the top 5.

Yes, it would.  After all, Luck didn't have injury concerns coming out of college, and we all see how that turned out.

Any QB can get injured, but at least Tua doesn't have questions about his talent.  Like Tunsil, Tua is exactly the kind of gamble the Dolphins should take: a player whose talent would normally place him out of the Dolphins' reach, but who they may be able to acquire anyway due to unexpected misfortune.

Tunsil also could have been the next Josh Gordon... but he wasn't.  Those are the kind of gambles this team should take, instead of reaching for the next Blaine Gabbert.

I've been around a long time and it seems to me that drafting a good QB has as much to do with luck as it does with preparation. I wasn't a big Herbert fan but I'm not a big fan of Tua because of his size and injury record. I have come to love Joe Burrow but past records prove that he's not a given. With that said ...for once I'm going to sit back and let Chris Grier pick and then wait and see. As you all have proven in this thread ... any pick is risky but also potentially the one to make. For once I'm actually glad I'm not the one making that call ... LOL.

No. That would absolutely suck but you can justify your decision to draft Tua over Herbert as he is far more talented with better on field results.

I'm not concerned over the size thing for Tua, 6'1'' isn't that short, not ideal though.  He could gain some more muscle and I'd be happier, he's 218 lbs, I'd like to see him at 225-230.  To be fair, Brees and Wilson are 6' and 5'11'' respectfully and they're the two best in the league.

Tell that to the guys who selected Jeff George. Yeah, I'm sure that the fact that he was predicted to be good is of terrific consolation to them.

Huh? Brees and Wilson are the 2 best in the league? Brees I can maybe see as the best but I think Mahomes would disagree and Wilson is close to the top, but putting them the best in the league is a bit much. I would say they're both in the top 5...which still proves your point that smaller QB's can succeed, but lets not get carried away. And Alabama says Tua is 6'1". Not sure he really is....again not that it will prevent him from being one of the best QB's, but I'd still prefer he was a bit bigger.

If Miami doesn't get a franchise QB out of this draft, whether we decline to take one or pick the wrong one, then it's going to really suck regardless. I just think the worst case scenario is passing on Tua and then watching him have a Hall of Fame career.

SMH, the argumentative semantics around here kill me, it's like a lot of you just do it to argue.  Even saying Wilson is one of the top two QBs in the league vs top 5 isn't getting "carried away", as he had more yards, more TDs, higher completion percentage and the same amount of INTs as Mahomes this year, but that wasn't the point, it was about smaller QBs succeeding which you mentioned.

Yes, I perfer my QBs bigger too, but for every Big Ben, there is a Ryan Mallet.  I'll go with the guy that looked like an NFL QB in college and has better numbers throughout his career over the guy that looks like a proto QB, but can't read past his 1st and 2nd receiver.

If y'all want to open a thread on who's the best in the league, be my guest, but that is not the point of my comment.  This is why I go to reddit more and more and this place less and less.  You guys find the smallest thing and harp on it over and over, it's old.  Rename this place Grumpy Old Men.

When it comes to busts, I would rather draft a Jeff George (with expectations to be good) than reach for a Brandon Weeden or Christian Ponder and get the kind of results that everyone said you would in the first place.

I know hindsight is great and all, but if you are a GM with the #2 pick in 1998 or 2012, you can survive picking Leaf or RG3 if they are busts, but you definitely cannot survive passing on them if they are successful.

I'm with you. Seems like we have a long history of reaching and failing rather than taking the expected and it not working out.

BTW ...Tua is 6' and not the college reported 6'1"

Okay, it's just barely over 6'.  He also weighed in at 230lbs, more than I thought.  Herbert is only seven pounds heavier and six inches taller, kind of a string bean.

I don't understand why none of the Tua supporters consider drafting a guy who can't walk a significant reach?

Because he can't walk NOW, the presumption from doctors recently is that he will return to 100% health and the injury won't hinder him in the future. Our doctors will due lots of due diligence as well. It's still definitely a risk, but without the injury he is taken #2 in the draft and deservedly so. When can we draft a QB like this again without getting lucky with the 17th overall pick or finding a hidden gem in the 4th round? It's worth the risk.

I wouldn't say being More Likely To Walk In 2020 makes Herbert a better pick.  :P

In all seriousness, I believe Herbert is another Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, or Daniel Jones: the "We gotta get somebody at QB" candidate.  He's not a long-awaited draftee like Luck, Tua, or Lawrence; he didn't have an amazing breakout year like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, or RG3; he's not even the QB of a championship team like Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, or Deshaun Watson.  He's just A Guy That's In The Draft This Year.

edit: The irony here is that if MIA had tanked correctly and actually had the #2 pick this year, I would not be in favor of drafting an injured Tua; I'd be saying to draft Chase Young.  An injured Tua is no longer a good value at #2 with an edge-rusher like Young still available, but at #5 with the other elite talent likely off the board, Tua becomes a great pick.

Exactly.  And picking Tua at 5 does not prevent MIA from also drafting the next Tom Brady in the 6th round.

I have to agree with Spider on this one.

The key word there is presumption and it's exactly that a presumption. Actually if you look at the history of this type of injury there's probably at least a 50/50 chance that he's going to have some long term issues with that hip. It may not effect his ability to be a franchise QB, but it might as well. The doctors don't know how this will turn out, no one does. All this talk that there's no more risk of him getting injured again is talking about him getting injured again which has nothing to do whether or not this injury will have an effect on his career. It very well might.

https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases--conditions/acetabular-fractures/

If Tua's injury history were the ONLY thing to worry about with him, I would probably agree with you, but it's not for me. I'd have had some questions about Tua's ability to be a franchise NFL QB even if he wasn't injured, his injury history and his chances of getting injured in the NFL are only 1 part of it. While you seem to think that Herbert is under hyped, I tend to think that Tua has been over hyped. I think this is really where we differ.

And looking back over the last 20 years of over hyped QB's, none of them have really panned out to match the expectations. Mahomes you might say, but I don't really remember Mahomes being overhyped, I kinda remember him being a bit of a surprise top pick after the season he had much like Burrow this year but maybe my memory is bad on him. It's really been the more overlooked QB's that have surprised people. I'm not saying that Herbert is going to be the one to surprise, I don't really think that, I just think he's a better prospect then Tua all things considered. If we had the #1 pick, I'd go with Burrow, but we do not have the #1 pick.

For me, taking Tua at #5 seems to be reaching for a QB just for the sake of taking a QB. Originally I wanted to actually take Herbert with our 2nd pick at #18 which I thought was a good spot to take him, but seeing him rise up the boards now, that's no longer a possibility. So if you like him you're going to have to take him at #5 even though that might be a bit of a reach for him as well. If we are going to take a QB at #5, give me Herbert over Tua, but I'd be happy with passing on a QB at #5 completely as well and maybe get one of the others later.

What else worries you about him?  Except for Burrows, he can read a defense better than any QB in college, scanning multiple receivers.  He is crazy accurate.  He's smart.  He'll still have more escapability than a lot of QBs even with the injury.

His only cons are size, being left handed (not that a big a deal imo) and injury history.  

Those 3 and he also doesn't have a ton of playing experience at the college level. Maybe I shouldn't say he doesn't have a ton but that's one of the things I like about Herbert, he's had a lot more game experience. That's a point in his favor in my opinion. Maybe he hasn't been as spactacular as Tua, but he also didn't have the weapons that Tua has had and he's been very successful for 4 straight years. When did that become a bad thing? That seems to be working against him these days, I don't get that.

Tua - 32 games
Herbert - 43 games

Herbert has 11 more games under his belt as a Senior to Tua's as a Junior.  Doesn't seem like that much of a difference to me.

Tua only started 24 games. He doesn't get a lot of credit for thowing a total of 77 passes in 8 games that he didn't start. How about comparing attempts.

Tua: 684
Herbert: 1273

You have never seen me say anything about drafting Herbert so I have no idea why you keep trying to hang that on me. You still can't accept the risk in drafting a QB that can't walk. You just called it a great pick.  Whoever gets him will be disappointed when it all plays out.

Tua Tagovailoa, via #SBLive on @nflnetwork: I'll be participating in the combine but my main goal is not to win the 40, not to win the bench press but to win my medical. I'm going to go over there looking to win my medical and then go in and interview with the teams.

https://twitter.com/NFLDraft/status/1222917546690543616

[mod edit: fixed link that broke page formatting]

It would be nice if that were true, but his Father may just be saying that so he doesn't fall. If Miami passes on Tua, then other teams might be spooked and he could fall into the teens or worse.

The more I think about this the more I want the Dolphins to take a LT with their 5th pick.  If Tua or Herbert are there come the 18th pick then draft them then.  Without a new star QB for 2020 Miami will not have that much of an improved record, as it seems their schedule will be tougher than 2019's.  In 2021 Miami will have two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks (their own & Texas' for both), they can certainly trade up to get the star QB of that draft, and overall the team will be more experienced having let the 2020 draftees get a year of playing in.  Additionally maybe there won't be as many other stinky teams occupying the top spots.  Not to mention it gives another year to really throw Rosen into the fire and see if he is an NFL QB, maybe they won't have to draft a QB.

You can only trade up to draft the star QB in the draft if the team holding the #1 pick doesn't want him. There is literally no offer on the table that the Bengals would accept for Burrow, not even our 5 1st rounders the next two years because they want him. We will not be in a position to draft a potentially amazing QB like this for probably a long time. Whoever gets the #1 pick next year, very good shot it is not us, will probably not have a franchise or star QB already in place so they will select Lawrence unless you promise to forfeit games against them on top of several 1st rounders. It just does not happen with QBs.

But there's Lawrence AND Fields, who outplayed Lawrence in the CFP semi-final game.   Ohio State should've won that game easily.  I'm sure two first rounders and two second rounders is enough to grab at least the number two spot.

If MIA drafts Tua this year they can let him rest, then grab a top tackle with their (very early) pick next draft.

Totally Wrong.  So many wrong things about this reply I don't have the time or energy to point them all out. lol

Imagine that MIA had the #1 pick this year.

What do you think it would take to pry that pick out of the Dolphins' hands?
As a fan, how would you feel if MIA traded away that pick?

The only way a team lets go of a franchise QB at #1 is if they are confident they already have a franchise QB in place.  Suffice it to say that it is rare that such a team winds up with the #1 overall pick.

Tua shared this on his Instagram story, get used to him being Miami's next QB:

(https://i.redd.it/tlqb656bb1e41.png)

https://twitter.com/973espn/status/1222995227578970141 (https://twitter.com/973espn/status/1222995227578970141)

Tua does not want to play in Cinci, not like they were going to take him anyways.

97.3 ESPN FM
@973espn
Talking with @leighsteinberg
 asked his client Tua, and if he wants him to go No. 1 in upcoming #NFLDraft

“You want to make sure that your client ends up with a good organization....I’m hoping Cinncy falls in love with Joe Burrow".

While I appreciate Tua showing love for Miami, I hope this doesn't lead to say the Lions bullshitting us that they have a team trading up to take him and make us waste one of our extra 1st rounders.

I've heard enough experts speak this week from radio row and barring any obviously hip issues fully support drafting Tua and even moving up. I realize it doesn't guarantee anything but I also know that most people in the know fully believe he is the real deal. Even Dan Marino said he was a much better college player than he was. IT was obvious he is in love with the guy and I have to belive he's definitely worth the risk. 

With that said ... one of the more interesting theories about QBs was this. Burrow and Tua are considered odds on top two. History shows that one will be a bust in the NFL or at least ... not very successful.

We can only guarantee Tua by moving up to #2 and that needs to be done sooner rather than later. The cost of that will be one of our 1st rounders, or less depending on how dumb the Redskins are. We can't spend that on a bluff. Maybe a 2nd but not a 1st.

Absolutely not worth it.  Take the BAP at #5. 

I really want Tua, but not move up for him and certainly not take Herbert if Tua's gone.  We stay put at #5, draft someone like Simmons (S/LB) or Andrew Thomas (OT) and maybe pick Love (QB) later in the draft, or even wait for next year and get Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts.

You mean Justin Fields don't ya?  Hurts is available this year.  He could be a day three sleeper

Yes, my bad

I don't think MIA needs to worry about it.  The risk calculation for trading up to draft an injured QB is much different than staying put to do so.

Besides, who are the possible teams that might do that?  I don't think CAR, LV, IND, TB, or CHI are fully ready to move on from their current QBs yet.  I think the only real threat is LAC, and I can't see them spending the kind of capital they need to move up and draft an injured QB when Rivers is still serviceable.

I don't think anyone would either, but never dismiss a crazy trade proposal by the Raiders or Bucs. It would cost a lot more for them than Miami but Gruden is insane.

Ironically, if PIT had a first-round pick this year, they might be a team that would trade up.

Rivers moved out of California. He won't be there next year because the Chargers are ready to move on also by reports.

Hmmm.  Didn't know Rivers is a free agent.

San Diego does not have the draft capital that we have and the cost to move up a few spots this year will probably be high because they know they can bid them against Miami and they know exactly what they want. I just don't see them having to use their 2nd and 2021 1st rounder to move up 2-3 spots when Herbert should be right there for him.

BUMP:  Closest thing we have to a general QB thread.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1226952606620229634 (https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1226952606620229634)

Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
The three-month CT scan for #Bama QB and coveted draft prospect Tua Tagovailoa was as positive as possible, sources say. The fracture has healed. The hip and its range of motion is good. It’ll likely be another month before he’s cleared for football activities, tho, as expected.

Excellent news. Although, the odds of another team moving up just got slightly higher. I still don't think it would happen as the cost of it would be very high but it's a concern. More of a concern would be the Lions bullshitting us and saying another team wants to move up in an attempt to steal one of our 1st rounders.

Supposedly he is moving to Florida.  Please don't let the Dolphins sign him.  He is the biggest whiney ass crybaby in all of football which is not a trait you want him installing in a young QB.  Besides, Fitz is a better QB at this stage of their careers and he would also be a better mentor for a rookie QB.

I think Rivers will end up in Tampa. If it happens it both excites me and depresses me because this deal was actually done a while ago and proves tampering goes on all the time.

I think he is retiring.  He is moving to the panhandle to be closer to both his and his wife’s family.  I think he is too much of a family man to live away from his family for the season and he won’t be in commuting distance to any team. 

That is one possibility. His legacy won't be tainted by going out with a bad year and there is a certain shine to playing your whole career with one team. With that being said, if he can rebound with a good season, how far would Tampa Bay go? Are they a legit division contender with a good QB or is 8-8 their ceiling regardless?

Pensacola to Tampa is about 6 hours by car and about 1.5 hours by plane.

Rivers is a Grade A prick.  Usually in your early days in the league, you're brash, little arrogant with your abilities.  He still hasn't grown out of it, just like he doesn't know to get a vasectomy and stop having kids

My biggest issue with him is that he will throw a horrible pass and then berate the receiver on the field. I get it that sometimes maybe the receiver ran the route wrong and it looks like a bad throw but it is really on the receiver.  But it happens way too often for it to always be the receiver's fault.  Part of being an adult is accepting accountability and not blaming everyone else for your problems (mistakes).  And that is even more important in a leadership position like QB. 

Very talented player but a bad teammate and leader. Probably why the Chargers never made it to the Superbowl.

I like Rivers's fiery attitude.

The talking heads on national sports radio are now saying that if healthy and able to throw at Alabama's Pro Day, Tua may go before 5.

If Chase Young is available at 3, there's no way DET lets that pick go at anything resembling a fair price.  So I see 3 possible scenarios:

1) MIA stays put at 5 and Tua falls into their lap (getting more unlikely by the minute)
2) CIN picks Burrow first, Young goes 2nd to WSH, MIA trades #5 and #39 to DET to move up to #3 and picks Tua
3) MIA gives WSH a king's ransom (something on the order of all three first-round picks) to trade up to #2

I think MIA needs to trade up with DET, and soon.  By the time we get to the draft, Dan Snyder may be ready to pick Tua, and the price for DET to let Young go on draft day will be huge.

Tua will be there at 5, and any panic-inspired trade to move up will be nothing more than a waste of draft capital that could be better used to add more quality players to the roster.

Agreed. We need all of our 1st rounders, we can't trade them "just in case". Washington is the only team that may draft him despite using a 1st rounder on a QB last year and not giving him enough of a chance to show himself. With the level of talent available in the Top 5, I don't think they take him especially passing on Chase Owens.

Tua should be there at #5 and if not then we will take the next best player available.

Hard to take anything at face value this time of the year but it seems Detroit is going to take Tua unless we give them the world. They have supposedly placed Matt Stafford on the trade block and given his agent permission to make a deal.

This, and if he isn't draft Simmons.

Leading story on NFL.COM is the Lions' GM saying that Stafford up for trade is 100% False. So Dolphins should still be safe to draft Tua, if they really think that they have too.

stay pat .. having more 1st round picks is better than less first round picks and any qb in this draft

It would create $32 Million in dead money for them if they trade Stafford, so that ain't happening.

Lions could draft Tua even if Stafford wasn't on the trading block this year....but it would mean they are planning to trade him before the 2021 season.nu

I would have to see his contract but I think the way it is structured, it would kill the Lions to move on from him anytime soon. Not just that, but he is a good QB who was on pace for an awesome year before injury. Their #3 pick would be better served improving their horrible team rather than "upgrading" a spot that isn't a problem.

Unfortunately, they need lots of help so they will listen to every trade offer.

Moving on this year $32 million, next year $19 million.  So drafting Tua for 2021 would not be insane.

$19 Million is a lot for next year too. Like I said, Stafford is a good QB who was having a monster year before injury. Tons of needs on that team, QB just isn't one of them. It would be in their best interest to bluff and pretend they will draft him so some team offers them the moon, I just hope it isn't Miami.

This... The more I watch film of Simmons, the more I fall in love with the kid. I really do believe that he's going to be a top-5 caliber LB for many, many years.

Here I thought just drafting Tua was a nightmare,  now there is trade talk. Ugh.

There's always trade talk, even when no one is talking trade.  'Tis the season...  ::)

My candle-lighting fodder (for now):

#5:    QB Tua Tagovailoa
#18:  WR Justin Jefferson
#25   OC Tyler Biadasz

I figured WR was were we're most stacked, there are some good EDGE and Olinemen in that range.

I wouldn't say stacked, I would say position of least amount of need. If somehow a guy like CeeDee Lamb fell to us at 18 just because that's how the chips fell, I would take him. Lining him up across from Parker and Preston Williams? Awesome.

Because of how much we suck, we are in a position to basically justify taking anyone with any of our picks. Every position is a position of need so we can't go wrong as long as we don't take the 49th ranked prospect in the draft at #18 just because he was an O-Line guy.

Trading up with DET right now would likely only cost MIA a second-round pick (#39).  That price is likely to increase as we get closer to the draft, and if Tua's pro day goes well, that price explodes.

The reason why I'm in favor of trading up now is that if Dan Snyder does Dan Snyder things and picks Tua, MIA gets Chase Young.  You aren't going to trade DET out of Chase Young on draft day without a major haul.

If the price is just the 2nd rounder and guaranteed Tua or Chase Young, then I would do it. I don't like it but I would do it to guarantee one of the two. However, if it's a 1st rounder? Just roll the dice. I'm in a weird spot because I desperately want Tua but I don't want to trade draft picks for him. I hope those wins by us don't prove too costly.

I really wouldn't have any issues with an Edge or O-line at that spot, but I am higher than most on Jefferson, and have him as my #3 WR in this class, behind only Jeudy and Lamb.  If Miami came out of round 1 with Tua, Jefferson and Biadasz, I'd feel really good about the foundation of Miami's offense for the next 4-5 years.

It is theoretically possible to trade with the lions and neither Tua or Young is available.....but then you get Burrow.

That would be more than fine by me. The goal is a franchise QB now because any thought about drafting Lawrence next year is unrealistic as it doesn't take into account we won't be going 1-15 and we won't want to trade 5 1st Rounders to move up.

I think the consensus is any of those three is a great way to start the draft.

Chase Young is only a great consolation prize if we don't have to spend two 1st rounders on him. Otherwise, it's a disaster.

This is why I'm saying MIA should trade up now, while the price is only an extra 2nd.

Unrealistic, that won't happen before the draft.

Explain why Detroit would be willing to trade on a discount in February?

Tua's Pro Day might go poorly, or he may not be able to participate at all.  If that happens, Young is definitely going 2nd and the market for Tua will be significantly reduced; I doubt anyone is going to trade up with DET to make sure they can nab Jeff Okudah or Jedrick Wills.  That's why DET takes a discount in February: the future is unknown.

I'll just leave this here. Yes it's probably a smoke screen, but I always say where there's smoke there's fire. I think there's at least a bit of truth to the story. I think the Dolphins would be wise to stay where they are at #5 and take the best QB available to them whether that's Herbert, Tua or Burrows.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240357851.html

Our old buddy Tommy compared Herbert to Brock Osweiller on FB this morning and I swear it immediately clicked. That's exactly who he reminds me of.

I agree, it is probably a smoke screen.  I'm pretty set on taking Tua, if we don't get him at 5 I'll be disappointed a little.  I really don't won't Herbert.  I would be okay with best player available in the first round (not a QB) and taking Love in the 2nd round, as I think Love > Herbert.  Love can read through his progressions, everything I've seen from Herbert is one or two reads and throw.  Love is a two or even three year project QB though.

I think reading progressions is overrated. Great QB's don't go through progressions, there's really not enough time to check on each receiver to see if they are open, they see the entire field or at least they see what they need to see to know who the open receiver should be and they get the ball to the right guy. I remember once they asked Dan Marino how he did it and he said "Pick a guy and let it fly". You didn't see him going through progressions he just knew based on the coverage and the routes run who was the right guy to throw to and he had enough arm talent to get the ball to him no matter who it was or where that was. That's a great QB. Now I don't know enough about Herbert to know if he can do that, but he's proven whatever he does, he does it pretty well.

I find this to be a really bad take.  You don't want a QB that can read progressions?  One or two read QBs don't make it in the NFL.  I don't have time to go into a big "who's right" argument, so we can just disagree on this one.

I agree.  "Just get a guy with Marino's arm talent" is... not a sound approach to drafting QBs.

I don't like the terminology of reading progression. To me that says you look at receiver X and see if he's open and if he is you throw it to him and if he's not you then move to receiver Y and you do the same thing and so on to receiver Z. There's not enough time for that in the NFL in my humble opinion. Great QB's don't do that or at least you don't see them doing that in my opinion. They read the coverage and based on the coverage they know that X, Y or Z is the best option for the play called and they go with the best option unless the guy is just blanketed or falls down or runs a route different then what they expected or something like that. Now maybe it happens so fast you can't really see them doing it but they still are, but if that's the case then it's all moot anyway since neither Herbert or Love are to that point in their development anyway and are both going to have to get to that point. Besides Herbert completes a higher percentage of his passes then Love so either Herbert's better at selecting the right guy to throw to without going through as many progressions or he's just better at completing passes despite the fact that he's not picking the right guy as often. Either way, I want the guy who completes a higher percentage of passes with fewer picks not the other way around I don't give a shit how he does it.

And yet if you find a guy that can consistently complete 60% of his passes and keep his interception rate low, maybe it's not that important how he does it, just that he does it. Not all QB's are created equal and can just be fit into some formula to give you the right answer. There's more to evaluating talent then just checking off all the right boxes as well.

So semantics then, we aren't too far agreeing on that part.  I group reading a defense and going through progressions together, as you need one with the other, I think most people would.  Usually a play is drawn for a primary route, with the other routes taking coverage away from that player so they are more open, but that depends on the defense.  Yes, a QB has to be able to read a defense which in turn gives the QB the opportunity to read who is open, i.e. progressions.  Man vs. Zone, a different receiver will be open depending on the defense, which I agree is very important.  There is a progression of reads though, say your primary is doubled, you need to go to your second or third receiver.  A good QB can read a defense, where the safeties will be and such, and go through their reads in a second, basing that off of the defense.  If you have a primary fly route and see the safety going deep while man coverage from the CB, you can assume your primary route is toast and move on to your second read.  I see Love do that with his eyes, I don't see Herbert doing that at all.

Speaking of Herbert, he plays for a much better team than Love as well.  All things being equal, I don't know if he is as good as Love, but that's something we won't know until later.

I'm just curious on what pro QBs complete 60% of their passes and keep their int rate low that you're speaking of?  Those sort of QBs are game managers, we want something better right?

Herbert's career completion percentage is 64% and his interception percentage is 1.8%, both of which are better then Love's career numbers and pretty close to the same as Loves single season best which was 2018.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I think that Herbert's college career numbers compare pretty closely to NFL career numbers for franchise QB's in the NFL. Granted these are college numbers not NFL numbers we don't know whether or not these numbers will stand up in the NFL or not.

Brees and Rodgers both qualify, and I doubt anyone would call them "game managers."
MIA already passed on both of them, though.

Herbert has 23 INTs on 1293 ATTs, for an interception rate of 1.7%. (23 / 1293 = 0.01778)
I have no idea how you arrived at .002.

I had the wrong column selected on my spreadsheet (cut and paste error). Thanks for pointing it out.

Definitely a smoke screen. Herbert was all the size and natural ability you can want but he hasn't fully put it together on the field yet where he is a no doubter in the NFL. He seems like he will be out of the league within 6 years. If we take him, I will do my best to talk myself into him but I wouldn't be optimistic.

On the plus side, the Lions are looking to trade their star corner Darius Slay and most mock drafts project them taking Jeffrey Okudah from Ohio State. So, if they trade Slay due to contract demands then they can replace him immediately if they stand pat. All depends on what offers they might get. I'm still not convinced a team will want to trade multiple 1st rounders to draft a QB with an injury history. That type of move costs people their jobs if he gets hurt.

I was referring to a one or two read QB with those kind of stats, should have been more clear.  Brees and Rodgers can read a defense/progressions and have those stats and are elite.  We should strive for the same kind of QB, which I don't see in Herbert.

To be perfectly honest, the main reason I'm advocating for a trade with DET is to get Chase Young.

If it were anyone but Dan Snyder picking 2nd then I'd be less concerned.  But if WSH decides to get nuts, whoever is third will be in a great position.  I'd be significantly more satisfied with missing out on Tua if it means MIA picks up the best player in the draft, at a foundational position.

I can't see the fanbase being happy with us spending two 1st rounders on Chase Young. Detroit is not moving back for anything less than one of our 1st rounders and even then they might ask for more if someone like San Diego makes a good offer too. We have to either stay at 5 and see who is available or if Tua is taken and some team desperately wants Herbert, see what their offer is.

Now that makes a whole lot more sense to me. I'd also be ok with giving up a 2nd and the #5 pick to get Chase Young at #3. I would not give up another #1 pick though. I think the defense needs even more help then the offense does at this point. The only problem with that is that you won't know until after the Redskins pick whether that's possible or not and then you might be in a bidding war with a couple other teams. So I'd still advocate staying put at #5 and picking the best player available whomever you think that is. If you think that player is Tua, I'll be fine with that, but don't pick him because you are afraid of missing out on him in case he turns out to be a star. The odds are not in your favor in my opinion on him.

It's just dangerous to trade up with the Lions until the Redskins pick. You don't want to have the Redskins take Tua themselves or trade their pick for a team who wants Tua and know you just threw away an extra 1st rounder for nothing. So, we are either trading up with the Redskins now or waiting on draft day to trade up with the Lions, no way we do anything else before the draft.

I would just call it reading the defense and not really going through progressions, I think that's the main difference I have.

I disagree somewhat. Some plays are like that like screens and such where you are going to throw it to the primary receiver almost without fail. That's not really what we are talking about here. What we are talking about are plays where the receivers have multiple route combinations depending upon how the defense plays them. That's the typical pass play where the QB is taking a 3 or 5 step drop and reading the defense.

I somewhat disagree again. I don't think a QB is looking at who is open, he's determining who is GOING to be open and when. He's doing that by looking at the defense, not looking at his WR's. He knows the receivers routes already, he doesn't need to look at them to determine if they are going to be open, rather he's looking at the defensive players and reading those players and what they are doing. Do they have their back to the QB? Are they taking away the inside or the outside? Do they have help or on an island, etc etc. Based on that information they know which WR SHOULD be covered and which WR SHOULD be open at some point in the route tree and when that will be and that's what makes their decision as to who they are going to throw to. If they wait till they see the receiver open, it's too late by then, the ball already has to be gone so that it's arriving at the time and the place where the reciever is open.

This happens at the snap or shortly thereafter and honestly the QB doesn't really need to look at his receivers to know this, they know based on the coverage and they can see that by scanning the whole field, not by looking at one receiver.

Exactly. There's no progression looking at their own receivers, they are reading the defense with their eyes and they don't need to look at their receivers. This is why I say progressions is not really what they do. The only time they really need to look at the receivers is once they have read the defense and decided where to go with the football, they need to make sure the receiver read the defense the same way and is on the same page and is running the route they expect, hasn't fallen down or been knocked off their route, the throwing lane isn't blocked or something like that because sometimes that happens and THAT'S the only time they need to adjust where they are going with the football. Everything else has already been decided at that point.

In my opinion a QB who has to go through progressions is not really reading the defense and picking the optimum player to throw to, he's looking to see which one is open because he really hasn't diagnosed the play and doesn't really know which one is gonna be open based on the coverage. That's not a strength, that's a weakness in my opinion. The guy that has to go through 2 or 3 receivers to find the right guy to throw to is not really the guy you want. You want the guy who's able to pick out the right guy without having to go through the WR's 1 by 1. In my opinion Herbert is better at picking the right guy more often then Love is which is why you don't see him moving from receiver to receiver. In my opinion Herbert is better then Love at reading the defense which is why he seldom has to go away from his read. That seems to be confirmed by higher completion percentage and lower interception numbers.

In my opinion that is the crux.  Do you really care why the QB has a higher competition rate and lower interceptions.  If it is because with reads or because he is better at reading defenses and needs to do less reads or it is because he fakes better, it shouldn’t matter.  What matter is does he throw the ball to an open receiver.   

This is disappointing to hear:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240357851.html (https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240357851.html)

Miami Dolphins’ current view of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert might surprise you

"One source said the Dolphins are not just concerned about Tagovailoa’s return to full health from the fractured and dislocated hip he suffered last November, but also about his durability in the long-term beyond the current injury. "

so, the Dolphins would rather go with someone who is low risk, middle ceiling (aka Ryan Tannehill 2.0) or take a chance on a QB that was top of the line, but has had some injuries recently.

I will say that if the Dolphins vet Tua and his injuries (most importantly the hip) are minimal than you take him.  I will be the first to say that when I aw the game live and what happened, I though that injury was brutal was hesitant on taking him.  The hip was displaced immediately and of course surgery a day or two later. This is NOT the Bo Jackson injury of 30 years ago

If doctor's give him the clearance and he shows that he can do the job, he take him. I don't some Dr. Danny kannell Sr. moment again where we pass Brees for Culpepper.

Joe Burrows one season aside, Tua was the best damn QB to come out of college the last 2 years and it's not even close.

He's the best since Andrew Luck

There is no question that Tua is far more talented than Herbert with a much higher ceiling. However, if this isn't a smokescreen then Miami is right to do their due diligence and see if his body can handle not just NFL sized players tackling him but the long NFL schedule. No Cal Poly Tech A&M at the pro level.

In the end, if Tua is available at 5 I don't see us passing on him. To pass on Tua and have him go to 9 Pro Bowls with the Chargers may be the final push off the ledge for us Dolphin fans. If he is taken before we pick then we would have had 2 months of talking ourselves into him and it won't seem so bad.

Tis the season for misinformation, folks... If I tell you I love cheeseburgers, it actually means that I love chili dogs more, and hope the chili dog slides to me.

Believe nothing at surface value on any article regarding how a team/GM/coach feels about a prospect.

+1.  I love how people go crazy over what is either misinformation or speculation by people outside the organization.

"Reporters" are just taking common sense and adding some fake names to it. Of course Miami is concerned about Tua's injury history and of course Herbert has a lot of great intangibles. Within 2 weeks you will see reports that they aren't convinced either QB will last long in the NFL and how Chase Young is their top target.

My sources tell me the Dolphins are eyeing Michael Turk of Arizona State with the 18th pick but they are worried that the Falcons are going to take him at 16 so they are going to try to trade with Denver for the 15 spot.

Armando's article is click bait. Seriously ... they joke about it on the radio. He Dave Hyde and the others have nothing to go on as Chris Grier and Flores are not "leaking" any information but they have to write something. It's funny because I think you get to hear how they really feel when they fill in on a radio program. Otherwise they are just selling papers.

For what it's worth Joe Rose and the others went so far as to say that they aren't even trying to play the misleading game. Think New England and how almost nothing from internal is ever disclosed.

And the Dolphins head coach came from where??

If Miami is truly targeting Michael Turk at #18, it must mean that they were so impressed with Matt Haack's passing ability (everytime he throws...Touchdown!) that they are going to use him at QB this season and skip out on all the Tagovailoa/Herbert nonsense.

Sure, I can see it...  :-\

Exactly.  Teams run the misdirection play every single off season and people fall for it every single season.  Put yourselves in a team's management shoes.  Why in the world would you disclose your draft plan to every other team and the world before the draft?  There is absolutely nothing for a team to gain by doing that.  Conversely, putting up smoke screens, etc. definitely helps a team in the runup to the draft.  

It's the slowest time of the year for football so beat writers are desperate top write about anything and teams play along with fake leaks about their draft and free agency plans. Fake news is better than no news.

Today's rumor ... Rosen really improved and the Dolphins will likely hang on to him. Translation ... How much will you give us for Rosen? hahahahaha

People keep talking picks but I could see them trading picks and Rosen in order to move up.

Rosen is only 22 and has gone through a lot of transition as a player so far in terms of schemes and coaching. So, he definitely has value but we aren't getting a 2nd for him. He can be used in a package deal like you said or a stand alone value of a 5th rounder. Maybe 4th if a team has a QB emergency.

Pulling the plug so quickly on him and not returning to him later in the year leads me to believe the team has no faith in him so maybe it is best we move on right now.

The most interesting aspect of the whole QB draft is how everyone seems to be talking Joe Burrow out of allowing Cincy to draft him. Here's some info from a few different articles

(1) former Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer said the team isn’t committed to winning; (2) Burrow hired Carson Palmer’s brother, Jordan, to help prepare Burrow for the draft; and (3) Burrow revised his position from “I’ll play for whoever wants to pay me to play” to “I want to play for a team that is committed to winning.”

And considering what Carson was willing to say in public, it’s easy to imagine the stories Burrow might have heard in private.

.....

Steve Bartkowski has a clear message for the Burrow family: Steer clear of Cincinnati at all costs.

�

I'm sure that nobody wants to go to Cincinnati, but he has no say in the matter. Besides, the price to acquire that #1 pick is every 1st rounder we have this year and maybe more. If it was our #5 and #18 pick plus a 2nd, then you really think about it but the Bengals would have to be just the worst franchise ever to do that.

It's not unheard of. Two players have forced their way out of playing for the #1 pick ... John Elway and Eli Manning. Both are HOF players so it appears they may have made the right choice. Andrew Luck, who ironically went to the team Elway wouldn't, did not make that choice and is no longer playing.

BTW ... there's no way we give up all 3 first round picks. That's way too much compensation

Elway threatened to play baseball if he wasn't drafted by a team he wanted and Eli just pouted a lot. Yes, he made a huge deal out of it and it wasn't pleasant for San Diego but if push came to shove he would've been a Charger and that's that. Same with Burrows, if Cincy takes him, what is he going to do? Sit out a whole year? The Bengals suck and would be without their 2020 1st rounder, so good chance they pick him again.

We should absolutely not give up our 3 1st rounders but looking at the packages for Goff and Wentz, it's not crazy that some team will. It's just more likely to happen before the draft than after it when rosters are getting closer to being set.

Rams were picking 15th while we are picking 5th. Huge difference to start with. The Rams traded six picks in total to the Tennessee Titans, including two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and two third-round selections. We have 5 first round picks in the next two years and I think 4 second rounders over the next two drafts so I really don't see them giving up all 3 of this year's first round picks. Especially if Burrow makes it known he doesn't want to be there. That only makes it easier for us ... or someone else to step up.

Lots of professionals think its a foregone conclusion that eventually Eli is a HOFer.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001098575/article/will-eli-manning-be-inducted-in-the-pro-football-hall-of-fame

Yes, the fact that we pick 5th can be very enticing for them but it will still be hard for them to give up Burrow, no matter how much he complains. Plus, what guarantee do they have that Tua will be there at 5 if they still want a franchise QB? Might be a trade that goes down on Draft Day if it happens at all.

Give them the Texans pick this year but keep the one for next year since they will probably be a lot worse in 2020.

If you wait until Draft Day and WSH takes Tua, DET isn't trading their pick.  That's the whole point of trading now.

You trade with DET if you want to ensure that you get one of the three elite players in this draft.

Note: I split off the Eli HOF discussion and moved it to Around the NFL.

I understand your logic but the price goes up on Draft Day and Detroit knows that, so they wouldn't trade now for anything less than a monster package. Minimum 2 1st rounders from us. Besides, even if we pull the trigger the fanbase would revolt if we ended up with Chase Young. He is a beast but you don't trade multiple 1st rounders for anyone but a franchise QB.

I don't know about revolt, he's the best player in the draft.  It would be a heated discussion with fans though.

Well, the window for trading up to 3 for 5+39 has likely already closed.  It probably would take two firsts now.

However, if adding one of the picks from the Tunsil trade allows MIA to land a) a franchise QB or b) the best player in the draft (at a key position), I'd say that salvages some small bit of a wasted season.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: if MIA doesn't get Tua (or Burrow, I guess) then this season was the most pathetic and incompetent tank job in memory.

Because strong teams can't succeed without an elite QB, which is what people think Tua and Burrows could be.  The Titans, 49ers, Bills and Vikings all made the playoffs this year without an elite QB.  If we don't get the QB of the future this draft, we stack up the team and draft one next year, that doesn't mean the tank job was pathetic.

Exactly. The goal isn't just to draft an excellent QB, it's to draft an excellent football team. This roster needs playmakers at virtually every position right now, so they shouldn't blow their entire draft budget just to make sure they get the QB they want.

I will always be against not giving Rosen at least 6 games to figure things out, winning 5 games this year is only salvageable if we get Tua or Burrow.

This right here!

Yeah, we can't give up a monster package for a QB when we have holes everywhere. Some draft picks are okay but not multiple 1st rounders. That being said, getting a QB this year is basically our best and only chance or getting a franchise QB any time soon due to our draft position and capital. We're not getting one next year without losing half a dozen draft picks so we need to end this talk about drafting Lawrence next season or really anyone in the Top 5. Whether we get a QB or not for 2020 we are very likely going to be much better and drafting in the teens.

And this right here also.  LOL  Why give up a 2nd and 5th rounder to the Cardinals unless you are willing to give the guy at least half a season so you'll know whether you have something for 2020 or if you should just cut your losses and move on.  I was against the trade to begin with, but even more against the trade since they barely used the guy they traded for.  The only explanation I can think of is that he was just so horrible in practice, pre season, etc.  that they could already tell he was not going to be a decent QB.  Or he was just such a douchebag in the locker room that nobody wanted to even take the field with him.  I think his attitude was part of the problem in Arizona.  Like a lot of professional athletes, he is good at saying the right things in front of the cameras, but that is rarely much of an indication of what they are like around their teammates and coaches.

It's unfortunate, and that may be the case on why Rosen hasn't played much.  I still make that trade 10 out of 10 times though, if it hits the QB search is over.  Great value for a potential franchise QB.

This is only true if you believe you can only get a franchise QB in the 1st half of the 1st round of the draft which has been proven time and again to be false. Certainly the odds are better when picking in the top half of the 1st round, but not to the point that you have to force it.

Perhaps, it gotta be something because we cut bait on him real quick and his games weren't any worse than Fitzpatrick's at the time.

We have never been a team to find a hidden gem at QB or develop them. Just look at Tannehil this year, we held him back. Even if Tua or Burrow become busts, we won't be drafting anyone with their raw talent anytime soon so might as well do it now and hope we can get it done at #5.

Miami "found" Marino with the 27th pick. I'm not saying it's easy, it's really tough...but only slightly less tough finding him with the 5th pick then with the 25th pick...that's what people don't understand.

Marino was 1983, that's the last time we hit on a QB. As a franchise, we just suck at it and the more fool proof it is, the better. We took Tanny at #9 and he was a good QB and we still fucked that up. Now he is in Tennessee and shining. Josh Rosen was selected at #10 and we didn't even play him after acquiring him, being smart with QBs is just not in our DNA.

Don Shula found Marino with the 27th pick.
Another Shula isn't walking through the door any time soon.

Neither is a Dan Marino.

The NFL as a whole isn't any better then Miami in my humble opinion. Most teams have only picked 1 franchise QB in their history and some haven't even been that fortunate. But you can't pick a franchise QB unless you actually select a QB. A lot of teams have tried a LOT more often then Miami has and come up empty.

The only team I can think of that drafted two all time greats that played for them is Green Bay.

If we take NFL.com's most recent top 25 all-time article as a guide, #10 (Rodgers) and #13 (Starr) were drafted by the Packers, but #8 (Staubach) and #14 (Aikman) were drafted by the Cowboys.

He was measured at 6 ft even today and weighed 217....with a history of injuries in college. Say what you want but this does not bode well for him in the pros unless he's behind a terrific offensive line. Put all that together and he's not a good fit for Miami.

Wilson is 5'11" and Brees is 6 feet. Lots of QBs are just an inch or 2 taller. I know his injury history is a concern and being 6'5" would be more ideal but it's not like he is 5'4" or anything.

It's not his height, it's his durability that is in question. He's a small guy who already has a history of injuries playing a position in a league that will prioritize putting hits on him and will make having a strong offensive line a priority if you want to give him a good shot at succeeding which Miami doesn't have. You're sticking a square peg in a round hole and hoping that it will fit. I just hope that Miami's talent evaluators will take a more realistic approach to his fit in Miami then most fans are.

Let the Lions draft him. I dare them. I double dog dare them.

Lions would get killed if they cut or traded Stafford this year but they would be in the clear in 2021. Of course, that would be incredibly awkward to have him play or be benched while Tua plays. Type of stuff that makes an 8 win team win 2 games due to terrible chemistry and uncertainty with the HC and GM.

As far as we go, sooner or later we have to improve the O-Line anyway so we can't use that as an excuse for not drafting QBs. We can very well turn it into a Top 10 unit in one offseason if we draft and play free agency well.

Tua will be an excellent Miami Dolphin.

I agree with you 1000%

Now there's an idea....

https://www.reddit.com/r/miamidolphins/comments/f9lw6o/everyone_can_i_have_your_attention_thank_you/

He can tweet out the N word on a daily basis and Cincy wouldn't pass up on him.

I don't want Burrows and his 9" manlet hands.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1232664494201020417?s=19 (https://mobile.twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1232664494201020417?s=19)

Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
·
1h
Following two days of medical testing, #Bama QB Tua Tagovailoa received overwhelmingly positive reports on his dislocated hip from teams who examined him, sources say. The MRIs were as clean as hoped, fracture is healed, there is no loss of blood flow. One source: “Looked great."

Tua will have to wear something other than #13.  I think #1 would look good on him.

I loved Burrows response to this.

“Considering retirement after I was informed the football will be slipping out of my tiny hands. Please keep me in your thoughts.”

Pretty remarkable since the consensus was his career was almost over when the injury occurred. Next stop free agency and then the draft.

He will never play a full season regardless of the uniform

Not only will he play a full season, he'll play multiple, screenshot this.

When I hear this I immediately think of Drew Brees and why we didn't think he would stand uo medically, or the reasons we passed on Brees to begin with. It also brings up how many reasons we had to pass up on Aarron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and many others. It seems like we find reason why not to draft QBs much better than we find reasons to draft one. The consensus is Burrow and Tua have what it takes to be successful if things work out. I have no issue with them drafting Tua as long as everything looks good. As long as we've sucked we simply cannot risk him going somewhere else and being successful.

Absolutely. He is too talented to pass up due to hypotheticals. Some people get better with new training staffs, new teams and some just grow out of being injured often. He is worth the risk, can't watch him go to 9 Pro Bowls as a Charger if we pass on him at #5. As much as any team can afford to miss on a Top 5 draft pick, we have the salary cap and draft capital where it won't end our franchise if he sucks or can't stay on the field.

Let it be known that the only true clairvoyants on the planet call TDMMC their home... ;)

I personally think Tua will be fine...but I still remember thinking that Joe Toledo would be the savior of Miami's O-line.

Hmmm....  :-\

Isn’t the reason you passed on Brees because you had a QB under contract that had just lead you to the top of the AFCE with an 11-5 record, so you weren’t really shopping for a QB, rather than injury concerns of Brees?

Was it a matter of passing on Aaron Rodgers or was it a matter of selecting a pro-bowl running back?

Was it a matter of passing on Matt Ryan or was it a matter of drafting an all pro tackle?

If Tau and Okudah are available at #5 and Miami takes a CB that isn’t illogical.

No, it was very stupid to draft a Tackle over a potential franchise QB. It always was stupid.

I am not sure Oakland Raiders fans will agree that the smart move was to take a potential franchise QB rather than Joe Thomas or Charger fans will agree with the drafting of a potential franchise QB rather than Kyle Turley.

 

Depends on who you have as QB currently. In 2008, we had Chad Pennington who was just cut by the Jets due to injuries. Instead of taking Matt Ryan, we took Jake Long and then took Chad Henne with the 57th pick. That was obviously a massive failure, more so now with hindsight but definitely at the time too.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that the talk about drafting Herbert or even Love is a smokescreen. This is not based on my own opinion on the QB's, but more on the history of the Dolphins with Grier and Flores leading them. Remember that it was these 2 guys that let a potential franchise LT leave because they were made an offer they couldn't refuse. Remember that it was these 2 guys that let a potential franchise safety leave because he was unhappy with his role on the team. Remember that it was these 2 guys that orchestrated the trade of their starting QB and instead picked up a washed up over the hill QB with 1 foot in retirement to lead the team because they would save millions in salary cap. Remember that it's these 2 guys that built the it doesn't take any talent wall and drilled it into the players heads during the season. Grier and Flores have been very consistent on 1 thing, there IS no 1 player that they have to have. Rather every player is simply a player to be coached up to their max potential. 1 player leaves and someone else has to step up into that person's shoes and fill them, end of story.

With that in mind lets come to the draft. The chances that Grier and Flores feel that any 1 QB is the one they have to have is very unlikely. Rather it's more likely they feel that they can take whomever is available at #5 in the draft and they'll coach him up to his max potential and he'll be just fine. In fact I think it's quite possible they don't even think they have to take a QB at #5, I think they believe if they have to use Fitzpatrick for another year and take another shot at a QB next year, that would work as well. It's not ideal, they would much rather take one of the top QB's in this draft and put him on the bench this year and get him learning the offense in Gailey's first year and with Fitzpatrick showing him the ropes, but if push came to shove, they could do it. Heck they might even think there's still hope for Rosen given more time.

No, I think they are being honest. They are not in love with any player and they're not going to just give up all those draft choices they stockpiled since they got here just to make sure they get that 1 player they can't live without. Sure they would love to take Tua if he's healthy and he's available, but if not they'll just take the best player available and they'll continue to coach up the players they have and that will be enough. It worked this past year and they were scraping the bottom of the barrel with other teams leftovers. You really think they don't think they can do a heck of a lot better with all those juicy draft choices available to them this year and next? I wouldn't count on it.

I think everyone needs to prepare themselves for the fact that Grier and Flores believe they are going to make it work no matter who they choose in the draft and they really don't care what the other teams think.

So not only do you think Tua is frail, you believe he is the most frail first-round QB in modern history.

Seriously, how many other QBs have never been healthy enough to complete ONE full season?

No.  MIA finished the 2005 season 2nd in the AFCE at 9-7 with Gus Frerotte under center.  Nick Saban had the choice to sign Drew Brees as a free agent, or trade for Daunte Culpepper (both were coming off of major injuries).  He chose the latter.

edit: Just to be clear, when talking about missing out on Drew Brees, I think most Dolphin fans are talking about the decision not to sign him as a free agent in 2005, not the decision to pass on him with their first-round pick in 2001 (Brees didn't have any injury concerns coming out of college).  Given his ultimate outcome with the team that drafted him, wishing that Brees's growing pains would have happened in MIA instead of SD doesn't seem very productive.

If they miss out on Tua then I think they will draft Herbert at #5. I no longer think they will trade down and acquire more picks. If somehow both Tua and Herbert are gone before we pick then all bets are off.

Interesting point by Dave Hyde today ... . I’m ‘shocked’ that ‘sources’ are saying Tua Tagovailoa had a ‘positive’ medical report at the NFL combine. Absolutely shocked. Of course, the only people who typically talk in situations like this are Tua’s people. That’s not to say it’s untrue. It’s just to say what the teams are privately seeing and deciding typically won’t come to light until after the draft.

Lol ... with that said after the draft and especially after his pro day we are going to hear all the negatives about Tua from leaks around the league. I'm not saying they are true but anyone who wants him to drop will tear him down so others stay away.

I thought these reports came form "sources within the teams who saw his report"?

If we pass on Tua at #5, I think he is going to fall into the teens. Other teams will be very spooked how we passed on him after all the hype and planning. Shit, we may be able to select him at #18.

Snap a million wishbones, toss thousands of pennies into the wishing well, light candles until they can be seen from space...and that still won't happen.

Tua will not make it past #6...period. Unless he dies in a freak weed-whacker accident between now and the draft, Miami will take him at #5, Chargers will take him at #6, or someone will trade up for him at one of those spots.

It would be incredibly unlikely but if we do pass on him at #5 I would be very surprised if he didn't fall out of the Top 10. We built our team and sacrificed a whole season rebuilding just for Tua, so for us to pass on him? That will spook everyone.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2878167-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-latest-buzz-for-every-nfl-team-at-2020-combine (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2878167-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-latest-buzz-for-every-nfl-team-at-2020-combine)


Miami — You may have seen reports that the Miami Dolphins have concerns about Tua Tagovailoa. Don't believe those. One source I spoke with this week said "the Dolphins are going to get Tua" and mentioned it's classic smokescreen behavior to tell a team-friendly reporter they don't like Tua in hopes he falls to No. 5 overall. But I'm told the team is prepared to trade up for the Alabama quarterback, and owner Stephen Ross is fully on board with the selection.

I hope we don't trade up and he falls to us at 5

And we know the above isn’t a smoke screen to get another team to trade up and take Tua so a different player falls, because?

Inception!

Yeah, everything is bullshit. Our main goal is to get Tua but we have several contingency plans if we don't like drafting Herbert, trading up for Tua or Burrows, taking the best guy available at #5 or trading down. Nothing will catch us by surprise, I just hope we stay strong when Detroit says they have an offer from San Diego for 2 first rounders for their pick and we tell them "Good luck".

Yeah, worst case scenario is Miami doing what Chicago did...giving up draft picks to move up when no movement is necessary.

My crystal ball still says "Tua at #5"

My crystal ball also believes Miami's other 2 1st rounders go for OT and D-line. ;)

No. We were 9-7 and passed on him to get Culpepper.

I'll name RG3 without having to look anything up.

One of the worst trades in draft history. Not that moving back one spot for two 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder was the haul of a century, but you have to ask yourself: Why did the team in front of me just give up the chance to draft their franchise quarterback for those 3 draft picks? Is that all a franchise QB is worth to them? Obviously, they were not going to draft Mitch. Well, obvious to everyone but Chicago.

Maybe I'm just a girlfriend that has been burned too many times by them but considering this is what most of us are expecting I'm pretty sure it won't happen and we'll be going WTF after the draft. hahaha

Yeah, I think we are all conditioned to not expect them to do the right thing OR do the right thing and it blows up in our faces anyway. That's what not winning the Superbowl since 1973 and 2 playoff appearances in the last 2 decades does to a fanbase. We'll draft Tua and he will fall down the stairs before accepting our jersey.

Understood completely... As long as they get Tua and a stud O-lineman with 2 of their 3 first rounders, I'd probably be fine with whoever the third player is.

Tua is really getting talked up these days. I have to believe it's going to cost Miami an extra first to get him.

Never fall in love with a girl you haven't banged yet.   

I'm sure Detroit will try to tell us to trade a 1st for him but I don't think we will bite. Maybe part with a 2nd rounder but not a 1st. I don't see a team willing to spend multiple 1st rounders and maybe more depending on where they are drafting, for a QB with an injury history. These are the types of moves that get GMs and coaches fired if they backfire.

I realize Patriot fans are panicking and people are writing them off after their bad year of 12-4 but it's been 30 years since we went 12-4. Whatever we need to do to get a top QB we have to do it. The time for taking the long shot has passed a long time ago.

Trivia  : Shula is the only Fin HC to get 12 or more regular season wins in a season.

However, having the best QB in the history of QB's without a line to block for him is kind of like bringing a knife to a gun fight. Engineer a QB made up of parts of Marino, Montana, Elway etc... and they still won't get you anywhere without some protection up front. Dolphins hopefully will make protecting the new QB priority 1A.

You don't think they tried the longshot route? Henne, Beck, Tannehill, White, etc. Everything they have tried was a longshot.

Usually first round QBs aren't considered a "longshot", but I get your point.

That's all they have done with QB as well as other positions. It's time to try something different and go after a known commodity. 

And then there's this article. I don't believe they are in love with him or at the very least they are not interested in giving up draft choices to move up to make sure they can get him and believe he'll be gone. Either way I got a feeling a lot of fans are going to be disappointed when the Dolphins either don't trade up and Tua's gone or they don't draft him even if he is there. I don't get the feeling at all this is a smoke screen. If it is who is it benefitting? Either they are already in talks with Detroit about what it would take to get the #3 pick or they aren't. If they are the smoke screen is a complete waste of time. If they are not, then that's WAY more telling then some stupid cat and mouse game they would be playing with Tua. I certainly could be wrong, but I don't see it.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-draft-dolphins-combine-friday-20200228-glhruktwpba2zdszgso3wc34hu-story.html

I saw that earlier today and am still not sure how I feel about it. While the straight forward answer is like you say I keep reminding myself how much all of this is a game but then I bounce back and think Flores probably thinks he can win with any solid QB. It's mentally tiresome trying to figure out where they are going ... hahahaha

If nothing else, this will be the most interesting Dolphins draft day(s) in as many years as I can remember.   

Per a "source", Tua had a "weird" meeting with the Dolphins where he felt he was given the "cold shoulder" but he would still like the Dolphins to draft him at 5 or trade up for him.  Don't you love random "sources"?

"Oh wow, Miami isn't interesting in drafting Tua anymore. Guess I don't have to trade up from 6 to get him now" - San Diego Chargers

Anonymous sources in politics are 100% worthless, in sports they are 90% worthless.

Sorry, I misunderstood. His injury history certainly makes him a longshot in my book. I don't understand anyone seeing it differently.

They were killing Tua on the radio this morning. Everyone was saying he came off as a whiner and was upset they weren't kissing his arse. They also said that's not how these professional interviews go and he was misinformed if he thought different. They also were saying that regardless of if the Dolphins love him he won't know it until draft day.

^^^ Are those the nameless/faceless "theys" that normally say stupid shit this time of year? Or are they new nameless/faceless "theys"?

Joe Rose and his show

This all stems from what I posted above.  A "source" saying Tua said the interview was "weird".  I take as much a stock in that as Kaep taking Brady's place in NE.

Exactly, there was no "source". The media and the team just make shit up as smoke screens and so the media has something to talk about during this dead time.

Mia has a history of weird interviews, just ask Dez Bryant.

There was nothing weird about that, his mom was a hooker.

Yeah, but that made Miami look bad. Tua complaining that they didn't treat him like Jesus makes him look bad, so it makes no sense for him to let that out. That's why I think it's just made up.

And he wouldn't dispute it why?

I imagine a top prospect having to address every rumor with his name attached to it could be exhausting...

Sometimes by not addressing it, you're addressing it.

If you address none you are safe.  If you address some rumors and not others is when conclusion can be drawn.

I'm just going to say this is the only "rumor " I have heard that addresses his thoughts. I'd speak up on this myself.  One statement clears the entire thing if it isn't true.

Assuming that the statement is true.

If Dez made a statement about how his mother isn't a prostitute, but I can show receipts, well...

Still can't believe we asked Dez Bryant if his Mother had sex for money.

I read an article today that Armando wrote and it got me to thinking....

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240905256.html

In the 2012 NFL draft Miami chose the consensus 3rd best QB available with the 8th pick, Ryan Tannehill. The top 2 QB's that year were considered to be Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Those that don't learn from the past are bound to repeat it.

That sounds like a knock on Justin Herbert doesn't it? It isn't. Ryan Tannehill was actually the right pick in 2012, that wasn't a mistake. It's clear now from looking at Ryan Tannehill's playoff run in 2019 that the problem wasn't him, but rather that the Dolphins failed to put a team around him. Actually the same can be said of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Luck was considered by most to be the closest thing to a can't miss QB in years, sounds familiar right? But he failed to take the Colts to the promised land and the reason is simple, they never put enough talent around him.

Nothing has changed. Whether the Dolphins get Tua, Burrows, Herbert or someone else it really won't matter unless they also restock the entire team. It would be a huge mistake to put all their hopes on a single player. The best way to ensure they choose the right QB will be to choose the right players with the rest of their available draft picks and free agents. Do that and you'll have the right QB. Don't do it and there's no possible way that QB is gonna change anything.

no trade ups !

Any trades will be done the day of the draft or with the Redskins so it guarantees our choice of player after Burrow. I just don't think it is necessary, but you can never count out stupid teams like the Rams throwing away their future for a system QB in Goff. As much as I want Tua, I would just feel dirty trading away an extra 1st rounder for him "just in case". And that will be the cost, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Even to go from 3 to 2 will cost an extra first rounder.

Trading up with WSH is an incredibly bad idea.  DET is cheaper and you get the same value.

I would sleep quite soundly knowing that MIA traded HOU's pick to get either a) the QB they tanked the whole season for or b) the best player in the draft.

Theoretically it is cheaper but in reality it's probably going to be the same price since they are going to charge us for what we want, not what the pick is worth. That being said, the Redskins are a weird organization, no guarantees that they don't pick Tua themselves OR trade with another team who wants Tua. The #2 pick is the only guaranteed slot for Tua. We all love Chase Young but let's not spend two 1st rounders on him.

Watch this if you think Herbert is going to be any good.  Spoiler alert, he won't.  Can only throw to first and second read, and struggles even with only two reads, inconsistent accuracy at all levels, has only one speed on his throws, fast ball, etc.


https://youtu.be/5Qj_TIx1FuA (https://youtu.be/5Qj_TIx1FuA)

At least she was working for a living.  That was a joke, people.   I think the reason they ask questions like that during combine is to see how players respond to pressure and highly emotional situations.  Written tests can only tell you so much.  It may not be nice.  But put someone on the hot seat and throw unexpected, highly charged questions/scenarios at them and you get a much better indication of their makeup than giving them written tests where they can think about how best to answer.   No different from interviewing criminal suspects, promotion boards in law enforcement/military/etc.   

If Tua is off the board, I honestly don't know what to do about the QB situation. Great QBs don't become free agents and it's a pipe dream to think we can get Lawrence next year. I don't want to get Herbert just because we need a QB but then what? Draft a project in the 3rd round?

His 4 month scans just came back clean. Said to be very positive and he is basically good to go.

So, now we wait.

Tua's getting drafted by Washington to be RIvera's new Cam Newton

and they won't trade that pick

I'm not putting it against them although they drafted Haskins last year in the 1st round and that was at the behest of Dan Snyder. Snyder loves him, he even rushed to the locker room during the season because he briefly got injured. Snyder is a dope and micro manages that team so it isn't likely they pick another QB and throw away last year's 1st rounder, especially when he didn't get a fair chance to prove himself.

Have the staff do some fucking homework and find the QB. I keep saying it,  none of the top QBs in the league are top 5 picks. Put down the pipe dream and think about the facts.  No QB is going to do anything without a line  first and supporting cast second. We still have a guy sporting Suck for Luck and  that turned out great for the Colts.

^Offensive line will be fixed this season, and will fully gel next season...just in time for Tua to become the franchise.

Have you looked at this year's FA QB class?  :-\


 

Also, I predict that next years Hall of fame class will include a QB that was a FA pick up that won a sb with his new team.

Guys in their 40s aren't going to help us this year since we still aren't a contender. Leaving those guys out, the best available QB is......Ryan Tannehill.

At first, I was going to remind you that none of the HoF-caliber QBs this season will be eligible for next year's HoF class (5-year wait list), but then I remembered who actually IS in the 2021 HoF class (Peyton).

That was the dude I was referring to.  Pretty good FA pick up by Denver.  Did the Dolphins even make him an offer?

We were going to throw the moon at him but he didn't even grant us a visit.

He was a shadow of himself that year anyway, the defense was the real MVP.

Regardless of who we pick they will have this year and next off season to surround them with better talent. I think Fitz is a lock for this season unless our new QB is just lights out ahead in practice.

I think even if the rookie or whoever is lights out, Fitz starts the few month or two of the season. Any wins over 5 this year are gravy, we are really aiming for 2021 to contend. I also imagine we are going to solidify all O-Line positions in one offseason, next year will be more defense oriented. Two 1st round picks, probably both in the teens for the 2021 draft.

I disagree.  If the Dolphins draft a rookie QB and he is lights out (or even marginally better) in the preseason he will start week #1.  I didn't think Tannehill would start right away but he did, and it was the right move.