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TDMMC Forums => Off-Topic Board => Topic started by: Spider-Dan on March 13, 2020, 02:09:11 am



Title: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 13, 2020, 02:09:11 am
I know we are all hearing about this all the time, and maybe this won't bring anything new to you.  But I wanted to discuss the importance of the steps we are taking.

I'm sure many of you have seen this image:

(https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/flatten-the-curve.jpg?quality=70&strip=all)

What that means, in a nutshell, is that we need to take as many measures as we can to delay the spread of this extremely contagious virus.  The longer we can delay the spread of the virus, the better our healthcare system will be able to cope with all the people that catch this disease.

There's a guy on Twitter who has been following social media in China to observe what people are reporting there.  China went through the same stages we are going through now: "nCoV is just like flu," "it's not that deadly," "it's blown out of proportion," etc.  And all that was wiped away as the virus continued to spread.

For the bleeding hearts in the audience, here's (https://twitter.com/tony_zy/status/1226194692032864257) a thread he translated of a young woman who slowly documents both of her parents catching COVID-19 and dying.  Of course, that's an anecdote.  But if you think it can't happen here, you're in for a rude awakening.

Many of us have older loved ones who are very much at risk.  And it is possible to overreact.  But I doubt many people will be saying a year from now, "I don't know why we made such a big deal about this when only a couple thousand people ended up dying."


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 13, 2020, 03:34:44 am
However, what that chart also indicates is that we need to take steps that are long term sustainable.    Increased hand washing and more frequently cleanings are long-term sustainable.  Shutting schools and businesses are not.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 13, 2020, 09:58:31 am
Working from home and schooling from home I believe are sustainable at least for some. Dallas county has issued a state of emergency. I'll be working from home for the next few days at least, perhaps longer. Luckily I can perform all my duties from home. I know not everyone is so lucky, but I believe many can and should if they are able.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 13, 2020, 10:46:52 am
Working from home and schooling from home I believe are sustainable at least for some. Dallas county has issued a state of emergency. I'll be working from home for the next few days at least, perhaps longer. Luckily I can perform all my duties from home. I know not everyone is so lucky, but I believe many can and should if they are able.
Until they figure how to build roads and bridges from home I'm screwed. That and the fact they think one of my blood pressure meds increases the severity because it attaches to the very thing that helps blood pressure. Go figure.

I'm thinking down the road there might be specific warnings for high risk individuals but life will go back to normal fairly soon.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 13, 2020, 11:29:41 am
Until they figure how to build roads and bridges from home I'm screwed. That and the fact they think one of my blood pressure meds increases the severity because it attaches to the very thing that helps blood pressure. Go figure.

I'm thinking down the road there might be specific warnings for high risk individuals but life will go back to normal fairly soon.

which one ?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 13, 2020, 01:33:00 pm
However, what that chart also indicates is that we need to take steps that are long term sustainable.
To my knowledge, the only truly effective long-term solution is immunity, whether that comes from contracting the virus or from a vaccine.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on March 13, 2020, 01:46:04 pm
Remember when we all died from Ebola?  Oh yeah, right, this time it is different.  More people died today from a heart attack while having sex than have died in the US from COVID-19 since COVID-19 even became a thing.   People need to stop letting the media lead them into hysterical frenzy behavior like cleaning out toilet paper from grocery stores.  Buncha silly asses. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 13, 2020, 01:59:35 pm
To my knowledge, the only truly effective long-term solution is immunity, whether that comes from contracting the virus or from a vaccine.

True, but we can’t shut down our country and economy until we get a vaccine.  People are going to get sick and some of those people are going to die.  Most of the people who are going to die from this disease are folks who without this disease were going to die in the next year or so anyway.  It is hastening the death of those already close to death, it is just a normal illness for the healthy.  

And although the measures being taken are being called short term, my local library is closed until March 31 (with zero known cases within 50 miles) either they are going to reopen it when the situation is worse or it is going to be shut down for a year.

I get canceling large gatherings of people.  But lets not shut everything down.  

I thought the idea of having sporting events without fans but still televised made sense.  

Canceling St Patricks day parades make sense.  Closing libraries don’t.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 13, 2020, 03:16:13 pm
which one ?
I take Losartan HTZ.

"the virus binds to cells by latching onto a receptor.

These receptors, called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), are found on the surface of upper respiratory cells.

Some with high blood pressure or diabetes have to take drugs that increase the amount of ACE2 they have on their cells, in order to control their illness.

Among the most commonly prescribed in the US are Accupril, Losartan, Lotensin, Valsartan and Vasotec, according to the US Food And Drug Administration. "

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8109453/High-blood-pressure-diabetes-drugs-raise-risk-coronavirus-symptoms.html


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 13, 2020, 03:51:06 pm
People need to stop letting the media lead them into hysterical frenzy behavior like cleaning out toilet paper from grocery stores.
Stocking up on toilet paper won't reduce the spread of this virus.  However, shutting down major gatherings of people will.

Again, other countries have tried the "This isn't a big deal" approach.  There have been severe consequences for that attitude.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 13, 2020, 04:00:05 pm
This is just an odd situation .. unlike anything we've seen in my lifetime. Just like 911 ... taking all politics out of it I don't think we were ready for this regardless of how many movies have warned us. We weren't ready in the past and we aren't ready now. As a result a lot of what the country is doing is winging it.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 13, 2020, 04:02:45 pm
Trump is setting a poor example by shaking hands on TV with others while discussing not spreading the disease.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on March 13, 2020, 05:27:30 pm
Trump is setting a poor example by shaking hands on TV with others while discussing not spreading the disease.
TrUmP iS sEtTiNg A pOoR eXaMpLe


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: pondwater on March 13, 2020, 06:58:06 pm
God damn it, they postponed the Black Label Society concert in Biloxi next Friday. I hope they reschedule it to a date that I can make it to. If not they need to approve refunds. Hopefully, I can get the Beau Rivage to cancel my reservations for next Friday. Those rooms ain't cheap. Between tickets and hotel I have $500 already spent upfront. We only got our first case of the virus yesterday.

Anyhow, I got to see Dokken/Lynch and the Great White/Slaughter shows in the past few weeks down in Biloxi. At least that's something I guess....

Oh yeah and dafuq is all the god damn toilet paper. WTF???


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 14, 2020, 07:56:22 am
True, but we can’t shut down our country and economy until we get a vaccine.
Sure we can.  Look at the kinds of drastic action the country took during WW2.
We have a wide range of options available to us.  The question is which actions are appropriate, and whether we are willing to take them.

Quote
People are going to get sick and some of those people are going to die.  Most of the people who are going to die from this disease are folks who without this disease were going to die in the next year or so anyway.
I don't know if people over the age of 60 (those most at risk (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/health/what-60-older-need-to-know-coronavirus-wellness-trnd/index.html) from COVID-19) "were going to die over the next year anyway."  And frankly, that's a crazy way to approach this disease.  You're worried about libraries being closed, but assisted living homes are full of people who are practically dead anyway so whatever?  Are you so cavalier about your own elderly loved ones?

It's not like people are making these warnings out of pure paranoid fantasy; look to Italy's current scenario for what can happen with an insufficient response.  The point of closing schools and sporting events now is so that we aren't on a national lockdown later, having to close every establishment that's not a grocery store or a pharmacy.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 14, 2020, 02:43:13 pm
Five things that would save more lives than shutting down schools over Covid-19:

1. Repealing the 2nd amendment.

2. Banning smoking.

3. Permanent revocation of license and mandatory jail for 1st offense DWI.

4. Medicare for all.

5. Banning motorcycles

The shutting down of schools will probably save some lives because it will reduce the number of deaths due to school shootings.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 14, 2020, 07:00:17 pm
I reject that kind of "Why are we worried about asbestos insulation or lead paint when thousands of people are dying in car crashes?" mindset.  We can address more than one problem at a time.

If you want to work towards solving any of the problems you listed, by all means, do so.  But closing schools to stop the spread of this virus is a concrete, worthwhile step that we can and should do.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: BuccaneerBrad on March 16, 2020, 12:11:34 pm
I think the whole country is overreacting like fucking morons to this.   Eleven years ago, Swine Flu killed more people in less time and no one shut down anything.   

I'm shocked and appalled to see all the beaches, theme parks, schools, and sports leagues shut down.  Wake up people!!   This is another flu strain.   It's NOT the end of the world.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 16, 2020, 02:17:45 pm
Most of the people who are going to die from this disease are folks who without this disease were going to die in the next year or so anyway.
This is not true or at the very least it's conjecture. There have been people that have died who were perfectly healthy before contracting the virus and those that have had health issues already there's been no indication those people were terminal already.

The reason this virus is different is because we don't have a track record on it and we don't have a vaccine for it. We know how the Flu works now and there's a vaccine for those who are high risk. Most people that get the Flu get it during the Flu season and then once the season is over few people get it till the next season so it likely will never become pandemic. We don't know if this virus is like that or not. It may not be seasonal and if it's not then the chances of it becoming pandemic go up. So while it may not be any more terminal then getting the Flu, it's possible that a much larger percentage of the population could contract it, especially those at high risk because there is no vaccine. Once there's a track record on the virus being seasonal and a vaccine for it, then it will become like the flu, but not until then.

The thing about precautions is that no one thinks they are important until after something bad happens. Now I'm being asked to come into the office rather then working from home even though they suggest not meeting face to face with people, send them an e-mail or use chat etc and there's zero reason for me to be in the office. My gut is this is largely because airlines are hit hard by this and there's a worry that people could be let go and I'm a contractor so my contracting firm doesn't want it to appear that we are not working.  So I should risk my health so that my company doesn't lose business even though if it did I would be out of job and if I get sick they certainly aren't going to be giving me paid leave unless I use my own.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 16, 2020, 02:47:54 pm
Sure we can.  Look at the kinds of drastic action the country took during WW2.
We have a wide range of options available to us.  The question is which actions are appropriate, and whether we are willing to take them.

I saw a meme that said something to the effect ... "Your grandparents answered the call during WWII and now you are being asked to sit on the couch and watch tv. Shut up and do your part."


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 16, 2020, 04:20:29 pm
I think the whole country is overreacting like fucking morons to this.   Eleven years ago, Swine Flu killed more people in less time and no one shut down anything.
The fatality rate for H1N1 swine flu was 0.02%.  The fatality rate for COVID-19 is around 3%, or fifteen hundred times higher.  And in Italy, the current fatality rate is over 7%.

This is why governments are concerned.  There are infections that are much more deadly (e.g. MERS), and there are infections that spread more easily (e.g. H1N1), but COVID-19 is extremely easy to spread and is FAR more deadly than other quick-spreading diseases.

But what I really don't understand is why people are so resistant to taking this seriously.  It's not like this is all crazy conjecture; Italy is right there as a warning.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 16, 2020, 05:15:44 pm
But what I really don't understand is why people are so resistant to taking this seriously.  It's not like this is all crazy conjecture; Italy is right there as a warning.

I definitely take it seriously.  I definitely think it is going to kill people and overwhelm our ability to treat it.  I am resigning to that fact.  But the steps we are taking won’t change that. It might delay the inevitable by a week or two but we and every other country will be eventually going to be hit hard.  And we won’t flatten the curve to a point our healthcare system can handle, it will be overloaded.  To whatever extent we flatten the curve and lower the peak we will lengthen the time the system is overloaded.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 16, 2020, 06:07:25 pm
"Overloading the healthcare system" is not a binary outcome, where it simply is overloaded or it isn't.  The degree of overload matters a great deal, and will have a significant impact not only on COVID-19 deaths, but collateral deaths from heart attacks, kidney failures, strokes, cancer complications, etc.

So again, I reject the notion that the system is going to be overloaded either way so it's a waste of time to try to contain the virus.  And the idea that we should let people get infected as fast as possible to get this over with is just about the most irresponsible suggestion imaginable.  I don't see anyone volunteering their own family to get infected first.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 16, 2020, 08:07:55 pm
So SWA wised up and is allowing contractors to work from home for the time being. Unfortunately they said that the reason it took them so long to come to this decision was that they had to think about those that can't work from home. So let me get this straight, not only do you not believe that we will actually you know, do our jobs if we work from home but also that you don't believe that any of our coworkers who can't work from home will believe that we will actually you know, do our jobs either? Thanks for just insulting your entire workforce's intelligence. Either that's a lie meaning you can't tell us the truth (that you really just don't care that much about our health in the first place) or it's the truth and you don't think much of your workforce's work ethic nor their intelligence to see that risking the health of some that don't need to be risked is beneficial to the company even if not everyone has such luxury. I lost a lot of respect for some of SWA's management today, like our VP. Not sure if that is coming straight from the CEO as well or just our VP.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 17, 2020, 12:31:43 am
What kind of work are you able to do from home...  back end logistics and such?
We aren't talking about the people at the airports, are we?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 08:42:04 am
I do technical support and development for their maintenance system, but I can login to my desktop PC from home and it's essentially like being there and since we use all online systems like e-mail, jabber, in-house systems etc I can do all of that from home. I don't typically go to a lot of meetings and the ones that I do go to are often teleconference calls because I work with both near shore (Mexico) and off shore (India) folks.

It's important that I can do this because I'm on call 24X7. I never complained that I had to get up in the middle of the night or on a weekend and perhaps work all night or all weekend to help recover from an outage. Now that the tables are turned and it's actually beneficial for me to be able to work from home and all those 9-5 people that have to keep coming to the office don't have that luxury, I should have to keep working in the office to keep them happy? No, I don't think so. It's a trade off. I'm on call 24x7, but I have the luxury of working from home when I need to. They work 9-5 and don't have to worry about their job once they leave, but then they have to come to the office or airport or whatever is their place of business.

The most ridiculous part of this is that I typically actually work longer hours from home then I do when I go into the office because I have 1 hour commute to and from work. I still get up at the same time when I work from home and because I don't have to commute I'm typically logged in at least 30 mins earlier then I normally would and sometimes I work 30 mins more because I don't have the commute home. It's sad that my management doesn't trust me to work from home. I do as good as job working from home as I do from the office, perhaps even better.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 17, 2020, 09:34:39 am
The most ridiculous part of this is that I typically actually work longer hours from home then I do when I go into the office because I have 1 hour commute to and from work. I still get up at the same time when I work from home and because I don't have to commute I'm typically logged in at least 30 mins earlier then I normally would and sometimes I work 30 mins more because I don't have the commute home. It's sad that my management doesn't trust me to work from home. I do as good as job working from home as I do from the office, perhaps even better.

That's generally the case, offices that promote remote workers statistically see more productivity with lower costs, but our corporate system is still tied to the factory idea of work that companies don't adapt when it's in their best interests to do so.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 11:21:50 am
Pappy,

While I don’t disagree with you, there is a second aspect at work, given your employer.  Having everyone stay home for the next few months will bankrupt your employer, your employer is dependent not only driving to work as normal, but fly to business meeting, family gatherings, and vacations.  If we move to an everyone shelter in place model, there is no need for you to work remotely as the planes will stop flying and the company will cease operations.

Your employer is in the industry least likely to promote staying at home. 

You’re now free to move about the country.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 12:27:45 pm
Pappy,

While I don’t disagree with you, there is a second aspect at work, given your employer.  Having everyone stay home for the next few months will bankrupt your employer, your employer is dependent not only driving to work as normal, but fly to business meeting, family gatherings, and vacations.  If we move to an everyone shelter in place model, there is no need for you to work remotely as the planes will stop flying and the company will cease operations.

Your employer is in the industry least likely to promote staying at home.  

You’re now free to move about the country.
Well several things wrong with that. First off, I'm not saying for the next few months, I'm talking for the next 2 or 3 weeks. The next 2 or 3 weeks will be critical for slowing the spread of the virus and containing those that are infected. Once that's done I think we'll have a much better handle on it and can maybe go back to the office. Secondly I'm not talking about everyone, I'm talking about those that can work from home without impacting their job. I would say that's maybe 30% of their workforce? Mostly IT folks and management. It won't impact being able to put people into the air at all in fact if they end up cutting down the schedule as is expected the work is gonna slow down considerably anyway. Actually they've already done it. They just declared HDQ a yellow zone meaning only people that are required to be at the office should be there, everyone else should work from home. And if you have symptoms you must stay home and either take sick pay or time off without pay. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't do that if they felt it would bankrupt them. They haven't even cut back on the schedule yet as far as I know and they'll only do that if the demand isn't there. It won't be SWA that prevents you from getting on a plane, it will be you that forces SWA to cut down on the number of flights because the planes will be half empty. If you want to fly somewhere you'll still be able to do it, maybe just not have dozens of flights to choose from like you do today.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 12:39:46 pm
Well several things wrong with that. First off, I'm not saying for the next few months, I'm talking for the next 2 or 3 weeks. The next 2 or 3 weeks will be critical for slowing the spread of the virus and containing those that are infected. Once that's done I think we'll have a much better handle on it and can maybe go back to the office. Secondly I'm not talking about everyone, I'm talking about those that can work from home without impacting their job. I would say that's maybe 30% of their workforce? Mostly IT folks and management. It won't impact being able to put people into the air at all in fact if they end up cutting down the schedule as is expected the work is gonna slow down considerably anyway. Actually they've already done it. They just declared HDQ a yellow zone meaning only people that are required to be at the office should be there, everyone else should work from home. And if you have symptoms you must stay home and either take sick pay or time off without pay. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't do that if they felt it would bankrupt them. They haven't even cut back on the schedule yet as far as I know and they'll only do that if the demand isn't there. It won't be SWA that prevents you from getting on a plane, it will be you that forces SWA to cut down on the number of flights because the planes will be half empty. If you want to fly somewhere you'll still be able to do it, maybe just not have dozens of flights to choose from like you do today.

I agree you probably can do your job just as well from home.  But your industry needs people to reject that idea and have the attitude of this commercial (from your competitor) that you can’t work without face to face interactions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcAABbA



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 01:27:48 pm
I agree you probably can do your job just as well from home.  But your industry needs people to reject that idea and have the attitude of this commercial (from your competitor) that you can’t work without face to face interactions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mU2rpcAABbA
Even if I completely agreed with that commercial which I don't (it's outdated for a global company and by the way SWA is KILLING American Airlines, they are going broke....again) even if I did agree with it that would only be from an outside the company "customer" perspective. I don't have face to face with any of my customers because they are all internal to SWA. My only contact with them when I'm in the office is e-mail, chat and DASH (which is our ticketing system). Now occasionally I do meet with customers if a problem of a serious nature comes up but even then typically it's a phone call or teleconference bridge because they don't typically work in the same building or perhaps even in the same city as I do. It's not practical for me to meet face to face with these people and that's the way I do business regardless of whether I'm in the office or not and that's true of almost ALL of IT. Now Managers might not have that approach, but in the next 2 or 3 weeks, I think we can survive if managers reach out to their employees by phone, e-mail or chat. If they absolutely HAVE to have a meeting, go ahead but that's still not a good reason for everyone to be in the office for 8 hours a day. Hoodie you have the same view as SWA upper management does and frankly it's outdated. You have no idea what my job is like or how I do it. You're out of touch with reality of the IT business from a global company. Google, Amazon and others mandated that all their employees work from home last week and these are the top IT companies in the world. Now for that to be true for you, not a big deal, but for SWA management to be out of touch like that, disappointing to say the least, scary is a better word for it.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 17, 2020, 01:33:29 pm
SWA is killing american airlines because American airlines took years of profits in the 5-7 billion dollar range and instead of investing in the future of the company, updating aircraft, paying their workers and rolling out products that make happy customers, they instead ran through a massive bout of stock buybacks to allow the people in charge to squeeze as much out of them as possible. Now they're about 30 billion in debt due to fleet purchases, refits and maintenance costs. So now they're practically begging for a government bailout.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 01:39:50 pm
I agree you going in is unnecessary.

Headline on CNN...... “Major Arline tells all employees who can work from home to stay home and not travel.  Encourages all people to avoid travel and face to face meeting unless absolutely necessary.  Encourages virtual meetings and conference calls over live meetings”.

Responsible thing to do?  Yes.

Consistent with overall marketing strategy?  No 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 01:45:22 pm
I agree you going in is unnecessary.

Headline on CNN...... “Major Arline tells all employees who can work from home to stay home and not travel.  Encourages all people to avoid travel and face to face meeting unless absolutely necessary.  Encourages virtual meetings and conference calls over live meetings”.

Responsible thing to do?  Yes.

Consistent with overall marketing strategy?  No 
Ok, that makes a bit of sense, but then come out and tell your employees that's the reason why and don't make up some BS about having to consider those employees that can't work from home.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 17, 2020, 02:12:03 pm
In some universe there is a Pappy going off about how his company made a business decision potentially affecting worker's health based on marketing strategies.

I just don't think you would be happy with either reason they gave.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 02:12:14 pm
Here's the latest from SWA.

COVID-19 Flight Schedule Revision: April 14-June 5, 2020
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
EmployeeNews

As we continue to navigate our way through this unprecedented and unchartered
environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen an alarming drop in
bookings and sales. We do not have a clear line of sight of when we will see our
business return to normal trends, and it is very difficult to determine the duration and
severity of the impact. Yesterday, we filed a form 8-K with an update on the impact to
our business, which you can read HERE.

Here are a few notable items in the filing:

“The Company has experienced more dramatic declines in passenger bookings in
March and second quarter 2020, as well as an unprecedented increase in close-in trip
cancellations. The Company has recently experienced several days of net negative
bookings, primarily in March and April 2020, where trip cancellations outpaced new
passenger bookings. The Company's month-to-date load factor through March 15,
2020, was approximately 67 percent, with recent days trending toward 50 percent. As
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic grows, and based on current booking and
cancellation trends, we expect revenue trends for the remainder of March and second
quarter 2020 to deteriorate further.

Given the continued uncertainty of revenue trends attributable to the COVID-19
pandemic, the Company has taken several actions to help manage the near-term
financial impacts. The Company will soon reduce its published flight schedules, which
will reduce available seat miles (ASMs, or capacity) by at least 20 percent for the time
period April 14, 2020 through June 5, 2020. These flight schedule reductions are in
addition to the Company's existing capacity impact due to the Boeing 737 MAX
groundings. The Company continues to evaluate further flight schedule reductions.”

We will begin making these revisions later this week, so we do not have specific routes
or market information to share just yet. Some decisions are still being made. We’ll
share more details as these decisions are made and finalized. The revisions will vary by
day of week and region—some airports and regions will be more impacted than others.
Customers who have already booked their travel and will be impacted by our amended
schedule will be notified of their re-accommodated travel according to our flexible
accommodation procedures.

We're working closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the
World Health Organization (WHO), and government officials and agencies to stay
apprised of the latest prevention and containment protocols. Additionally, we’ve created
a host of resources for our Employees and Customers with information, updates, and
FAQs, which you can find right here on SWALife.

We fully realize this has been an enormously trying time for our Southwest Family, our
Customers, and our communities. Our hearts go out to all of those who have been
impacted by this pandemic. Of course, we regret the inconvenience to our Customers
impacted by this change, and we thank them for their patience, trust, and understanding.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 02:13:09 pm
In some universe there is a Pappy going off about how his company made a business decision potentially affecting worker's health based on marketing strategies.

I just don't think you would be happy with either reason they gave.
You're absolutely right I would not be happy about it but at least in that scenario I wouldn't think SWA management was inept when it comes to me being able to do my job remotely.

The biggest takeaway that I got out of the e-mail from SWA was the load factor being around 67% trending toward 50% lately. SWA typically runs about 95% load factor meaning that we are about at 95% of our maximum flight capacity. Most Flights are booked to max typically. I don't think our marketing strategy has much of anything to do with it and not really sure that it would go up If they asked me to continue to work in the office.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 02:56:06 pm
In some universe there is a Pappy going off about how his company made a business decision potentially affecting worker's health based on marketing strategies.

I just don't think you would be happy with either reason they gave.

I am not suggesting he be happy with it.  It is just I can’t think of a single industry that would be more resistant to the idea people should stay home.  Also I doubt Pappy’s office is as densely populated as coach.  So if it is unsafe for Pappy to sit in. cube adjacent to his coworkers, it is certainly unsafe for me to sit in the middle seat of an airplane.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 17, 2020, 03:02:52 pm
i'm surprised there's still 65% capacity on flights right now


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 03:09:00 pm
The biggest takeaway that I got out of the e-mail from SWA was the load factor being around 67% trending toward 50% lately. SWA typically runs about 95% load factor meaning that we are about at 95% of our maximum flight capacity. Most Flights are booked to max typically. I don't think our marketing strategy has much of anything to do with it and not really sure that it would go up If they asked me to continue to work in the office.

If an airline was smart they might use that to their advantage.....

“From now until April 15 we will not be booking passengers on the middle seat.  While the CDC is not requiring this we think it is only prudent to space passengers away from other passengers.  Exceptions can be made in cases of three people who book their flight together and book an entire row, in which case we will be offering buy 2 get the third seat 50% off.”


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 03:12:33 pm
i'm surprised there's still 65% capacity on flights right now

Much of that could be people getting home.  Willing to bet 75 to 90% of travel today and yesterday was people on the return leg, with only a tiny portion outbound.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 03:13:15 pm
I am not suggesting he be happy with it.  It is just I can’t think of a single industry that would be more resistant to the idea people should stay home.  Also I doubt Pappy’s office is as densely populated as coach.  So if it is unsafe for Pappy to sit in. cube adjacent to his coworkers, it is certainly unsafe for me to sit in the middle seat of an airplane.
Does SWA come and wipe down the entire area of my workspace every night with industrial strength cleaners? They do that for all of our a/c. Hoodie you're being totally ridiculous at this point. It's safer at this point to fly in our aircraft then it is for me to be in my office for a week I can guarantee you that. I'd worry more about the airport hub if I were you.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 03:16:14 pm
If an airline was smart they might use that to their advantage.....

“From now until April 15 we will not be booking passengers on the middle seat.  While the CDC is not requiring this we think it is only prudent to space passengers away from other passengers.  Exceptions can be made in cases of three people who book their flight together and book an entire row, in which case we will be offering buy 2 get the third seat 50% off.”
Except that SWA doesn't have assigned seating but essentially that's true. Probably you can get the whole row to yourself right now.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 03:23:00 pm
Much of that could be people getting home.  Willing to bet 75 to 90% of travel today and yesterday was people on the return leg, with only a tiny portion outbound.
International that might be true but SWA is still mostly domestic. That's not even close to being true for SWA.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 03:27:46 pm
You ride in an airplane 40 hours a week? You do that because you can or because you have to?
# of hours is kinda irrelevant.  If you sit next to the same people everyday those are the people who can infect you.  If you take two flights per week it doesn’t matter if the flight is 30 mins or 13 hours you are at risk from the other passengers.  

But I am not defending the airline, just saying the optics of saying it is unsafe for you to sit in a cube 10 feet from a coworker undercuts the message flying is safe.  So they have a consistent message, “If you are sick stay home and don’t spread the disease, if you are not sick come to work and fly”


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 17, 2020, 03:47:20 pm
# of hours is kinda irrelevant.  If you sit next to the same people everyday those are the people who can infect you.  If you take two flights per week it doesn’t matter if the flight is 30 mins or 13 hours you are at risk from the other passengers.  

But I am not defending the airline, just saying the optics of saying it is unsafe for you to sit in a cube 10 feet from a coworker undercuts the message flying is safe.  So they have a consistent message, “If you are sick stay home and don’t spread the disease, if you are not sick come to work and fly”
But the people I sit next to are not the only ones in the department. There's foot traffic constantly past my desk. I could have about 50 to 100 different people walk by my desk in a week's time and not just once but perhaps dozens if not hundreds of times. How many people sit next to you on a flight? Maybe 1 or 2? Sure they walk past you too, but once or twice, not hundreds of times which increases your chances of exposure. Now granted the airport hub is big difference and yes I would avoid that area right now, but SWA has no control over that area.

And your talking like this is somehow a SWA policy change. The CDC is recommending this, it's not SWA saying that we should be safe. Oh and you don't I guess see any conflict with SWA putting out messages to the public that we are complying with ALL CDC recommendations...unless it's our own employees....fuck them! Yeah I'm sure that's real assuring to our customers. I'm done. Your being totally ridiculous. I'm not going to change your mind and I won't argue with someone who's not willing to talk sensibly about a subject.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 17, 2020, 04:05:06 pm
But the people I sit next to are not the only ones in the department. There's foot traffic constantly past my desk. I could have about 50 to 100 people walk by my desk in a week's time. How many people sit next to you on a flight? Maybe 1 or 2? Now granted the airport hub is big difference and yes I would avoid that area right now, but SWA has no control over that area.

And your talking like this is somehow a SWA policy change. The CDC is recommending this, it's not SWA saying that we should be safe. Oh and you don't I guess see any conflict with SWA putting out messages to the publie that we are complying with ALL CDC recommendations...unless it's our own employees....fuck them! Yeah I'm sure that's real assuring to our customers. I'm done. Your being totally ridiculous. I'm not going to change your mind and I won't argue with someone who's not willing to talk sensibly about a subject.

I am not disagreeing with you that it would make sense for you to stay home. 

All I am saying is that it would be inconsistent with the message that flying is safe.  There is absolutely no way airplanes less of a risk than going to a broadway show.  There is no way an airport is not worse than eating at a restaurant or going to a St. Patricks Parade.  So they are business as usual.  Because the logical alternative of business as usual isn’t you working at home, it is ceasing operations. 

Flights should have been shut down long before schools, libraries, beaches, restaurants or office buildings because not only does flights congregate people into a small area they move sick people into healthy areas.

It is insane we are closing elementary schools but not air travel.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on March 17, 2020, 05:48:13 pm
https://youtu.be/juugAWnBRKY (https://youtu.be/juugAWnBRKY)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 17, 2020, 11:54:45 pm
Flights should have been shut down long before schools, libraries, beaches, restaurants or office buildings because not only does flights congregate people into a small area they move sick people into healthy areas.

It is insane we are closing elementary schools but not air travel.
Absolutely not.  That's like saying that we should have shut down the grocery stores first because of how packed they have been.

Airports provide a vital, extremely time-sensitive service: transportation.  In contrast, schools do not; there is absolutely nothing time-sensitive about schools being open.  Hell, the primary function of public education today is as daycare.  Similarly, there are no urgently essential services provided by libraries, beaches, or restaurants.

There is a level of crisis where all mass travel needs to be shut down, but that is far beyond where we are now... and that level of crisis is completely incompatible with the "why are we unnecessarily shutting everything down?" approach you have been repeatedly advocating in this thread.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 18, 2020, 08:32:16 am
I am not advocating shutting down all mass transit—- just long distant travel.  Keep the subway and intra-city busses running.  Shut down intra-city busses and trains, airlines, and cruise ships. Discourage long distance car travel. Keep cargo transport.

Once a community has the virus it will spread, regardless if the schools are open or closed.  But no reason to export it to new communities.   Most air travel is completely unnecessary.

 Southwest Air is still advertising vacation travel.  Encouraging me to fly to Miami is a 1000:times worse than making Pappy go to work or someone who lives in Miami spending the day at the beach.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 18, 2020, 09:17:02 am
The City of Orlando basically shut down yesterday but our project will still go on. I'm keeping in touch with the city as they "work from home". 

As well ... FDOT is encouraging their contractors to work more hours since traffic has been majorly reduced.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 18, 2020, 10:07:44 am
Just spoke to a friend who works at a company doing exactly what Pappy advocates.  Customer facing reps are still dealing directly with the public, support staff and upper management are working from home
 She is pissed, "How the fuck is it too dangerous for someone in IT or HR to interact with a half dozen coworkers, but it is safe for ME to interact with hundreds of people everyday?" 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 18, 2020, 10:21:33 am
Just spoke to a friend who works at a company doing exactly what Pappy advocates.  Customer facing reps are still dealing directly with the public, support staff and upper management are working from home
 She is pissed, "How the fuck is it too dangerous for someone in IT or HR to interact with a half dozen coworkers, but it is safe for ME to interact with hundreds of people everyday?"  
I'm assuming the answer is that it's impossible for her to do her job from home. Why should IT or HR have to come to work to do their job if they don't have to be at work to perform their job? I'm not really sure what difference it makes for me to sit at my desk at home and perform my job rather then sit at my desk at work and perform my job? I understand that it sucks that she can't do that, but if she doesn't perform her job the company suffers. I'm not hurting the company in any way by performing my job from home.

What she should really be mad at is why isn't her company allowing her to simply stay home and not perform her job or maybe perform only the parts of the job that she can perform from home if there are any? That would be a company that really cares about their employees health, yes? At the very least give her the option to take paid time off or time off without pay. SWA has offered that to all employees. They can take that route if they don't want to come to the office and don't have the option to work from home.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 18, 2020, 01:18:54 pm
I'm assuming the answer is that it's impossible for her to do her job from home. Why should IT or HR have to come to work to do their job if they don't have to be at work to perform their job? I'm not really sure what difference it makes for me to sit at my desk at home and perform my job rather then sit at my desk at work and perform my job? I understand that it sucks that she can't do that, but if she doesn't perform her job the company suffers. I'm not hurting the company in any way by performing my job from home.

What she should really be mad at is why isn't her company allowing her to simply stay home and not perform her job or maybe perform only the parts of the job that she can perform from home if there are any? That would be a company that really cares about their employees health, yes? At the very least give her the option to take paid time off or time off without pay. SWA has offered that to all employees. They can take that route if they don't want to come to the office and don't have the option to work from home.

Yeah, it is impossible for her to do her job from home.  It is a fairness issue.  Her boss’s boss is home giving direction from her living room via phone.  The boss’s boss’s kids aren’t home alone from school unsupervised like her own kids. 

And the IT person not being there means others need to change printer toner etc.

She isn’t really interested in forcing others to come in as much as not wanting to be there herself.  But if everyone was there it would at least be fair.  I think she is much more bothered by upper management being home than support staff.  Duplicitous for them to say it is safe for to be there but they get to stay home. 

Yes, she can take the 4 days of vacation and 5 sick days she has as time off, but she wants to save them in case she is out with the actual virus.  Otherwise she can take unpaid leave. 

But what really pisses her off is that they could still do 95% of everything by not allowing customers to walk in and do everything over the phone.  But someone who is safe at home is insisting the place remain open.  She thinks if that person had to actually deal with a few hundred people a day, a different decision would be made. 

Apparently an hour ago they (lower level employees) started leaving their work station and going to the bathroom to wash hands after each and every customer greatly slowing down service.  Her direct boss is defending his employees on the grounds of good hygiene but those above him see it as a form of a protest/work slow down. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 18, 2020, 02:11:30 pm
Does SWA come and wipe down the entire area of my workspace every night with industrial strength cleaners? They do that for all of our a/c. Hoodie you're being totally ridiculous at this point. It's safer at this point to fly in our aircraft then it is for me to be in my office for a week I can guarantee you that. I'd worry more about the airport hub if I were you.

And this helps how with several hours of recirculating air and infectious passengers on board?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 18, 2020, 02:18:53 pm
Hoodie, can you let us know her industry?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 18, 2020, 02:57:17 pm
Hoodie, can you let us know her industry?

They do a bunch of things and impossible to describe without naming the company.  But the world would not end if she stopped working.  The company does have functions that are somewhat important to maintaining a functional society but no her group.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on March 18, 2020, 03:15:16 pm
They do a bunch of things and impossible to describe without naming the company.  But the world would not end if she stopped working.  The company does have functions that are somewhat important to maintaining a functional society but no her group.

Well, I'm pretty sure I've got it figured out.  ...anyone else?

 ::)




Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 18, 2020, 03:29:21 pm
Well, I'm pretty sure I've got it figured out.  ...anyone else?

 ::)




she obviously works in billing at pornhub


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 18, 2020, 04:14:13 pm
she obviously works in billing at pornhub

Porn industry is encouraging social distancing.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/porn-covid-19-coronavirus-industry-shutdown-free-speech-coalition-moratorium-967788/


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 11:54:10 am
But what really pisses her off is that they could still do 95% of everything by not allowing customers to walk in and do everything over the phone.
There's the problem and what I was pissed off at as well only in my case it was 100%. There's absolutely no good reason for her to be there. I totally agree with her.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 11:58:47 am
And this helps how with several hours of recirculating air and infectious passengers on board?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane/#close


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 12:41:01 pm
There's the problem and what I was pissed off at as well only in my case it was 100%. There's absolutely no good reason for her to be there. I totally agree with her.

There is no getting around her being there.  But if they locked the doors she would be exposed the the same two dozen coworkers every day, instead of a hundreds of different people every day. 

On another note, antidotal evidence suggest keeping kids out of school is NOT resulting in social distancing.  Yesterday the playgrounds were packed with bored children.  I pretty sure none of them were wiping down the monkey bars before using them.  While organized sports are banned, the fields were packed with pickup games.  Kids are visiting their friends houses.  Those parents who depended on the schools and after school programs are now shipping the kids to friends or GRANDPARENTS (the people that need to be socially distancing from germy kids)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 12:45:02 pm
There is no getting around her being there.  But if they locked the doors she would be exposed the the same two dozen coworkers every day, instead of a hundreds of different people every day.  
Right, that's what I meant. Luckily for her the "office" is 2 dozen people. For me the "office" is thousands of people. I would be more exposed at my "office" then she is with the doors open.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on March 19, 2020, 01:24:30 pm
 

On another note, antidotal evidence suggest keeping kids out of school is NOT resulting in social distancing.
 


Considering the pandemic subject matter, "antidotal" instead of "anecdotal" is either brilliant wordplay or the most apropos misspelling ever.

Either way...bravo, sir!   ;D




Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 19, 2020, 01:27:23 pm
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane/#close

Not going to sign up


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 19, 2020, 02:01:50 pm
On another note, antidotal evidence suggest keeping kids out of school is NOT resulting in social distancing.  Yesterday the playgrounds were packed with bored children.  I pretty sure none of them were wiping down the monkey bars before using them.  While organized sports are banned, the fields were packed with pickup games.  Kids are visiting their friends houses.  Those parents who depended on the schools and after school programs are now shipping the kids to friends or GRANDPARENTS (the people that need to be socially distancing from germy kids)
Unless the playgrounds are full of EVERY child from school, I'd say closing the schools is helping to stop the spread.

I mean, you can't MAKE parents take this seriously.  When a few hundred thousand people have died, we'll see how packed the playgrounds and beaches are.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 02:41:40 pm
Not going to sign up
Here's another link to the same article.

https://besttraveltale.com/travel/heres-how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane-and-the-safest-place-to-sit/


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 02:44:42 pm

Considering the pandemic subject matter, "antidotal" instead of "anecdotal" is either brilliant wordplay or the most apropos misspelling ever.

Either way...bravo, sir!   ;D




Wish I could take credit for the pun, but that was a misspelling.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 03:08:34 pm

When a few hundred thousand people have died, we'll see how packed the playgrounds and beaches are.

We will be at the end of the run and playgrounds will be safe again.  This will probably kill about  ~150 thousand before we have enough of the population with immunity to the slow the exponential spread and another ~100 thousand after the inflection point. Unless we get a vaccine first.  (very rough numbers, could be more)

I am not underestimating the seriousness of this disease. But I don’t think flattening the curve will do much unless you think that we can delay the spread long enough to get a vaccine.  I am resigned to the fact almost everyone is going to get it.  Those who survive will be immune and once there is nobody left for it to transmit to it will end.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 03:12:38 pm
Here's another link to the same article.

https://besttraveltale.com/travel/heres-how-coronavirus-spreads-on-a-plane-and-the-safest-place-to-sit/


Interesting read.  Doesn’t change my opinion that an office environment is less dangerous than a plane.  Nor my opinion that the problem has more to do with long distance travel spreading it far and wide than local contracts. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 04:07:10 pm
No question that flying "transports" the virus, but that's because the person infected is transported to a new location and infects others in the new location, the virus is not necessarily being spread during the trip. It could be, but it's not that common on aircraft. Seems more likely on cruise ships because their air filtration systems are more likely to spread the virus then in aircraft.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 04:11:38 pm
I am resigned to the fact almost everyone is going to get it.
Which explains a lot about your position in this thread. If you don't feel that way, that completely changes the discussion.

By the way that position seems to be pretty pessimistic as China said they had no new cases reported today so it appears in China the spread is slowing down and I'm pretty sure that not everyone in China has the virus. So it is possible to contain it. Hopefully the more proactive we are the less likely the US will have to enforce the same level of quarantine that China did.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 19, 2020, 04:22:56 pm
We will be at the end of the run and playgrounds will be safe again.  This will probably kill about  ~150 thousand before we have enough of the population with immunity to the slow the exponential spread and another ~100 thousand after the inflection point. Unless we get a vaccine first.  (very rough numbers, could be more)
If we use a fairly optimistic 2% fatality rate, 150K deaths would be after 7.5 million infections (i.e. less than 3% of the US population).  So either you believe C-19 is going to become drastically less deadly in a hurry, or you believe 3% of the population is enough for widespread immunity.

If we use 50% of the population as the point of immunity, at a 2% fatality rate that's a cool 3 million deaths.  Feel free to substitute your own figures and try to get a result you consider acceptable.

Naturally acquired immunity absolutely will not be enough to stop this.  We need widespread, aggressive testing and mandatory quarantine of those infected.  Any other solution will likely result in millions of dead Americans.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 19, 2020, 04:25:03 pm
By the way that position seems to be pretty pessimistic as China said they had no new cases reported today so it appears in China the spread is slowing down and I'm pretty sure that not everyone in China has the virus.
If Hoodie is objecting to the mild, mostly voluntary steps being taken in the US, I don't imagine he would be at all supportive of the steps China has been taking lately to stop the spread of the virus.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 04:26:47 pm
If Hoodie is objecting to the mild, mostly voluntary steps being taken in the US, I don't imagine he would be at all supportive of the steps China has been taking lately to stop the spread of the virus.
Agreed, but hopefully by being more proactive rather than reactive we won't have to.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 04:35:25 pm
Which explains a lot about your position in this thread. If you don't feel that way, that completely changes the discussion.

Absolutely. But the models are based on that. Unless we are going to shut down schools, business etc until we have a vaccine.  We need about ~75% of the population to be immune in order to carry on normal life at have a non exponential growth. If we end social distancing before we get to 75% we will have exponential growth.  Two ways to get to 75% immunity— vaccine or people get sick and recover.  Flattening the curve and social distancing is only about extending the time it takes to reach 75% so hospitals don’t get overwhelmed.  It makes no claim of lowering the overall number of cases.

Flu requires about ~50% for linear growth.  As about 47% of the population gets a vaccine we only see very rare exponential growth as recently recovered get us above the threshold pretty quickly.  

All numbers are very fluid.  Might not be 75% real number could be as low as 50 or as high as 90.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 19, 2020, 04:42:39 pm
Unless we are going to shut down schools, business etc until we have a vaccine.  We need about ~75% of the population to be immune in order to carry on normal life at have a non exponential growth.
Unless the virus is seasonal like the Flu virus. If that is the case then all we have to do is make it to the end of the virus season then we have some time to develop a vaccine.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 04:51:57 pm
If Hoodie is objecting to the mild, mostly voluntary steps being taken in the US, I don't imagine he would be at all supportive of the steps China has been taking lately to stop the spread of the virus.

I think the mild ones are foolish. I would fully support sealing off a city with a high incident rate and not letting anyone leave until the disease ran its course.  

Not allowing a sick person to travel to a healthy city will stop the spread.  Having children interact with 5 kids per day rather than 20 won’t.  I would have shut down the airlines before the schools.  

I have very rarely supported Trump on anything.  I did support him banning flight from China.  The only problem I had with his Europe ban was it didn’t include his golf estates.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 19, 2020, 06:45:54 pm
We need about ~75% of the population to be immune in order to carry on normal life at have a non exponential growth. If we end social distancing before we get to 75% we will have exponential growth.  Two ways to get to 75% immunity— vaccine or people get sick and recover.
You keep casually mentioning the let everyone just catch it so we can move on approach without adding that if 75% of the US were to catch C-19, we would expect over six million people to die (and that's before we get to the vastly increased numbers of people who would die from diabetes, asthma, cancer etc. because the hospitals are far beyond capacity).

This continued focus of yours is bizarre and inexplicable.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 19, 2020, 07:04:04 pm
You keep casually mentioning the let everyone just catch it so we can move on approach without adding that if 75% of the US were to catch C-19, we would expect over six million people to die (and that's before we get to the vastly increased numbers of people who would die from diabetes, asthma, cancer etc. because the hospitals are far beyond capacity).

This continued focus of yours is bizarre and inexplicable.

Here is my thinking.....less people will die of diabetes, asthma, cancer etc.  If we have 3 weeks in which the hospitals are at 200 time capacity and then return to normal than if we have 60 weeks of hospitals being at 10 times capacity.  Flattening the curve gets us the latter.  I think it is a myth we can flatten it to the point hospitals can actually manage the load.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 19, 2020, 07:29:01 pm
So six million deaths is fine as long as they do it fast.
This is a garbage take, man.  I don't know what stake you have in this, but you should really re-evaluate your priorities.

Do you seriously think the difference in outcomes between South Korea and Italy is insignificant and not worth attempting?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 20, 2020, 02:14:07 am
So six million deaths is fine as long as they do it fast.
This is a garbage take, man.  I don't know what stake you have in this, but you should really re-evaluate your priorities.

Do you seriously think the difference in outcomes between South Korea and Italy is insignificant and not worth attempting?

Except we aren’t following S korea’s model.  We

South Korea’s model s a great one.  But it s not what we are doing.  They didn’t shut down schools because someone 50 miles away had an infection.  They tested everybody who might have possible contacted someone who was infected. 

We are doing what Italy did only worse.  Shutting down areas but insufficient testing to figure out who is actually sick. 

Following S. Korea’s model isn’t randomly shutting down an entire states school system.  It is testing anyone who is showing even minor symptoms plus everyone everyone who might have come in contact with someone who is infected.

Want S Korea’s results. Have free testing.  Test everyone who has been overseas, test everyone who has a single cold or flu like symptom, then test everyone who might have been in contact with those who tested positive. 

However, given the spread we already have at this point that would require testing millions of people.

South Korea did far less mass shut downs than italy and far more testing than italy.  We are doing more shutting downs and less testing than italy. 

What if instead of sending Pappy home, they tested every single one of their employees and sent the sick ones home?

What if instead of shutting down entire schools we tested every student?

What if we required everyone who flies to get tested 24-48 hours before their flight in order to board the plane.

Absolutely we should be isolating sick people.  But to do that we need to know who is sick.  And that requires testing.

What the USA is doing with social distancing is the same security theater that Italy did, except we are doing more theater and even less testing than them.

And are results are almost identical, we are about 9 days behind Italy.  (If you look at day by day number of cases)

So yes, let’s follow South Korea’s model. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 20, 2020, 02:32:23 am
South Korea’s model s a great one.  But it s not what we are doing.  They didn’t shut down schools because someone 50 miles away had an infection.  They tested everybody who might have possible contacted someone who was infected.  

We are doing what Italy did only worse.  Shutting down areas but insufficient testing to figure out who is actually sick.  

Following S. Korea’s model isn’t randomly shutting down an entire states school system.  It is testing anyone who is showing even minor symptoms plus everyone everyone who might have come in contact with someone who is infected.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/no-panic-here-i-am-south-korea-watching-coronavirus-spread-128697

"The heaviest emphasis now is on what epidemiologists refer to as ‘social distancing.’ This means simply that people should keep their distance from each other. This makes any sort of gathering automatically suspect. And as the virus spreads, the cessation of meetings, events, and congregations has become more and more thorough.

Here are just a few examples, almost all of which have been voluntary. Religious services have effectively ceased. Catholic churches have taken to saying mass over the internet. Schools are universally closed. My children’s kindergarten closed completely last week and will close again this week. My wife and I are now planning on this lasting through the whole month of March.

Grade school and college students have so far had it lucky. The Korean spring semester does not normally begin until March. But now that March is here, these schools are planning on opening in the middle of the month instead. And in fact, this week school administrators across the country will meet to decide if school should start in April. Given that the number of corona cases is jumping few hundred every day now, I have little doubt school will be postponed till April. Indeed, if they started it on March 16 as originally planned, I wonder how many people – including instructors – would even come.

Just about any outdoor congregation is now ended. Concerts have canceled. Political protests, which are very common in South Korea, have all but stopped. Movie theaters are empty, and some are simply closing until further notice. A friend and I were going to run a few 10K races this spring. This has been delayed, even though transmission seems to occur mostly in closed spaces. Even the jungle gym for children and health club facilities in my apartment complex have closed. In the eleven years, I have lived in Busan, that has never happened. It is rather startling. There is not much left to do. My family and I are spending most of our time at home. We are ordering food via the internet and spending too much time watching TV. As an academic, I have the flexibility to work at home, but there has been a lot of contention about families that cannot keep their kids at home when the parents must still go to work.

If you do go outside, it is remarkably quiet. I live near a major university. There are all sorts of shops and vendors near our apartment and usually an active street life. About half the shops near our place seem closed now, and there is very little foot traffic. Employees in those shops which are still open are universally masked. I increasingly wonder if the store shutdowns are simply because employees will not come to work. At my own university, almost no one comes to work now except required support staff, and naturally, they are masked too. Public transportation – buses and the subway - is still running, but they too are sparsely used, and again everyone is masked. Even taxis seem fewer on the streets."

---

This is exactly the kind of action that you have repeatedly decried as not only useless, but actually counterproductive (as it delays people from catching the virus).

Do we need more testing in the US?  Absolutely; testing is a critical, necessary component to keep this virus at a manageable level.  But your obsession with keeping schools and libraries open is absurd.  There exists a level of response between "aggressive testing with comprehensive tracking of known victims" and "infect everyone as fast as possible to get this over with quickly."


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 20, 2020, 07:41:00 am
Our response so far has been security theater.  I oppose theater. 

Testing will have real results.  Ending travel will have real results. 

What we are doing will do almost nothing to fight covid, but will be very effective at causing massive unemployment and bankruptcies. 

If we aren’t going to do testing, we might as well do nothing.  And we aren’t testing.

Step 1: Test everyone that is suspected of infection.  Isolate those people.

Step 2 Eliminate long distance travel. E.g shut down the airlines.

If that doesn’t work maybe we can consider completely cratering our economy.  But we choose the nuclear option first.  I oppose that.   

Allowing the airlines to fly beach goers to Florida while telling people they shouldn’t go to the beach makes no sense.

I am not opposed to taking common sense steps to slow the disease.  But I am opposed to the government picking the least effective and most burdensome one as the first option. I would rather we did nothing. 





Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 20, 2020, 11:49:12 am
i got news for you .. the economy is cratered .. almost 3 million unemployment claims this month .. there's no putting the genie in the bottle anymore ..

you want us to keep the economy running? .. provide UBI for at least the next 6 months, defer student loan payments, mortgage payments and rent payments, close the stock market, make all coronavirus medical care cost 0 to the patient and direct industry to produce needed consumables. Then once this is all past, ease off all of those things. Then you keep the economy running.. and the last point that i can't stress enough.. Fuck the national debt. Now is the time to spend 10 trillion dollars on our "afghanistan war".


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 20, 2020, 12:33:26 pm
i got news for you .. the economy is cratered .. almost 3 million unemployment claims this month .. there's no putting the genie in the bottle anymore ..

you want us to keep the economy running? .. provide UBI for at least the next 6 months, defer student loan payments, mortgage payments and rent payments, close the stock market, make all coronavirus medical care cost 0 to the patient and direct industry to produce needed consumables. Then once this is all past, ease off all of those things. Then you keep the economy running.. and the last point that i can't stress enough.. Fuck the national debt. Now is the time to spend 10 trillion dollars on our "afghanistan war".

Won’t disagree with you on any of that.  But the gene is also way too far out of the bottle to alter our path from Italy to S. Korea.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MaineDolFan on March 20, 2020, 02:50:59 pm
Between my full and part time job I've put in about 80 hours a week in the last two weeks.  This week I'm tracking closer to 90 and I feel like I'm going to tip over.

Simply put - the virus is spreading easily, like wildfire.  We are at the community spread position.  So, let's just agree on this; social distancing works.  Stay away from each other.  

You know how everyone rushed in and bought toilet paper all at once?  We only have the ability to care for some many people as well.  If we, your front lines, start getting sick (and we will) it all falls apart.  Do you part, please.  Stop fighting over stupid shit and just stay away from each other until this becomes easier to control.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: dolphins4life on March 20, 2020, 07:37:10 pm
I've been a nervous wreck at work this week.

I had to draw somebody in the isolation room.  I put on the right gear, but I couldn't tell if my mask was sealed.

Second, the patient ripped off his own mask.

They told me not to worry, because it's not airborne


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 24, 2020, 02:42:19 pm
Southwest just started another program. You can take a minimum of 1 month off from work and still get 25% pay. Time must be taken off in increments of a month at a time.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 24, 2020, 05:14:31 pm
Southwest just started another program. You can take a minimum of 1 month off from work and still get 25% pay. Time must be taken off in increments of a month at a time.

Interesting approach.  Reduces payroll costs during a slow time without layoffs or early retirement packages.  And easy to ramp back the workforce back up after the crisis, compared to rehiring laid off employees or finding new ones.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 26, 2020, 08:10:58 am
Orange County, FL has issued a 2 week stay at home curfew like many other areas and we are learning quite a bit.  For instance ... construction companies, landscapers, telemarketers, and dry cleaners are essential businesses. Who knew? I've been hitting drive-thrus for lunch and I've never seen it busier. I will say the lack of public restrooms at restaurants is causing issues for those  that work with their hands and need to wash them prior to eating.

Here is a list of jobs the county lists as an essential business:

Healthcare providers
Grocery store employees
Food cultivation
Any business to provide food, shelter, social services and necessities of life
Hotels and motels
Media
Gas stations
Auto-supply, auto-repair, towing companies
Banks and other financial institutions
Hardware stores
Licensed contractors
Businesses providing mailing and shipping services
Laundromats and dry cleaners
Restaurants to offer a pickup option or delivery
Schools providing free food services to students
Businesses that supply office products needed for anyone who works from home
Any business selling medical equipment and supply providers
Businesses shipping groceries or goods to residences
Airlines
Taxis
Bus employees
Home-based care for seniors adults or children
Assisted living facilities and nursing homes
Legal services
Landscape and pool care business
Childcare facilities
Businesses operating at an airport or government facility
Pet supply stores
Logistics providers
Telecommunications providers
Providers of propane or natural gas
Construction sites
Architectural, engineering and land surveying services
Factories and plants
Waste management services
Businesses interacting with customers solely through electronic or telephonic means
Businesses delivering products through mail



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 26, 2020, 09:02:00 am
a few of them are hard to understand.

Necessary repairs are essential.  New construction is not.

People need to clean their clothes, so yes to laundry mats. But not dry cleaners.

All passenger air travel should cease.

With something like landscaping not essential but can be completed while social distancing.  Guy drives up, mows lawn, leaves.  No contact.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 26, 2020, 11:28:53 am
One of the guys working on my project hasn't been here since last week. His wife was tested for the virus last night and now they are in lock down. She got better and then took a turn for the worse.

I also saw that China is having like a 14% of a re-occurrence in patients who were previously cleared. Crazy!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: pondwater on March 26, 2020, 12:45:51 pm


I also saw that China is having like a 14% of a re-occurrence in patients who were previously cleared. Crazy!
I thought that I read that once you recover from it you are immune going forward. Are you saying that you can be reinfected?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 26, 2020, 12:55:49 pm
I thought that I read that once you recover from it you are immune going forward. Are you saying that you can be reinfected?

the short answer is that no-one knows .. it could be reinfection, it could be that the recovery wasn't complete and it's the same infection reasserting itself .. it could be a mutation that your body didn't build immunity to.. there might actually be 2 different strains of covid-19 out there that don't share immuneties

soooo the answer is .. no-one knows for sure .. but yeah .. everyone should pile into a church on easter


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 26, 2020, 03:05:05 pm
All passenger air travel should cease.
An excerpt from a recent SWA update from our COO as to why we are still flying planes.

Quote
I wanted to address a question I’ve been getting, that you may be asking: When is
enough enough? Why are we continuing to operate any flights at all?

Well, quite simply, the answer is that the country is counting on us. We are essential to
the country continuing to function. It may not feel that way with our planes flying very
empty, but with limitations on discretionary travel, we have to remember that means just
about every Customer onboard our planes right now has to travel…and we need to be
there for them. We still need to connect them to what’s important in their lives—more
than ever.

We are also carrying critical cargo like COVID-19 test kits, test samples, and healthcare
equipment essential for doctors and hospitals, as I shared in my update last week. Our
Cargo and Charters Team is also actively working on offering charters to shippers who
may have an interest in filling our planes with critical commodities (we have received
some interest in this option, but have not flown any to date). Our country, our
government, and our fellow citizens are counting on us.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 26, 2020, 03:36:17 pm
An excerpt from a recent SWA update as to why we are still flying planes.


That is pure male bovine excrement.

SWA is NOT Fedex or UPS.  Its flights from NYC to Florida are no ferrying lifesaving supplies.  They are carrying vacationers that are spreading disease from one hotspot to the next hotspot. 

Your website is advertising a sale on “getaway”. There is absolutely no message advising that only the only travel should be that is absolutely necessary. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on March 26, 2020, 03:44:35 pm
That is pure male bovine excrement.

SWA is NOT Fedex or UPS.  Its flights from NYC to Florida are no ferrying lifesaving supplies.  They are carrying vacationers that are spreading disease from one hotspot to the next hotspot.  

Your website is advertising a sale on “getaway”. There is absolutely no message advising that only the only travel should be that is absolutely necessary.  
You're welcome to your opinion as uninformed as it is. You have zero idea why people are flying. We are actually losing money with each flight. It would make sense from a business perspective (SWA's business that is) to shut it down, but it does not make sense from the perspective of other businesses which require the airlines to operate.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/business/domestic-air-travel-shutdown/index.html


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 26, 2020, 06:15:57 pm
the short answer is that no-one knows .. it could be reinfection, it could be that the recovery wasn't complete and it's the same infection reasserting itself .. it could be a mutation that your body didn't build immunity to.. there might actually be 2 different strains of covid-19 out there that don't share immuneties

soooo the answer is .. no-one knows for sure .. but yeah .. everyone should pile into a church on easter
That is the truth. I heard a Dr discussing this the other day and the truth is with such little sampling we just don't know. Could be just people with exceptionally weak immune systems or it could be the norm. It will take time to figure it out.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 26, 2020, 11:10:47 pm
Notwithstanding the fact that autocratic governments like China or Russia are likely not fully disclosing their infection statistics, today the US officially moved into the worldwide lead for number of C-19 infections.

I anticipate that this will get a lot worse before it starts to get better.  The question now is whether we are even willing to maintain our existing restrictions (as infections and deaths continue to spike), or whether people simply get tired of being safe and we put everyone back out in public to turbocharge this pandemic.

I expect that it will take the death of a non-elderly celebrity for people to consider this an actual threat to themselves.  So far, nearly all C-19 restrictions seem to be held in the context of protecting undefined "senior citizens" who already have one foot in the grave.  But let Ryan Seacrest die to this and suddenly people will be like "Oh I guess this IS more than just the sniffles if you are under 50."

I will say that I'm coming around to some part of Hoodie's position on this: from a purely selfish standpoint, you're definitely better off catching this today than you will be a month from now when all the hospitals are full and there are no respirators left.  (But I think Hoodie's position is more accurately that ideally all the hospitals should already be full right now, so not exactly the same thing.)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 27, 2020, 07:41:11 am
Given the relative level of testing in US and China, the US almost certainly has more unreported cases than China.  Russia either did a phenomenal job of taking early action in testing and isolation or they are under reporting. However, even with there is some suppression of the problem, there is no way they could hide a hotspot with the magnitude of NYC.

 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 27, 2020, 09:44:30 am
Given the relative level of testing in US and China, the US almost certainly has more unreported cases than China.  Russia either did a phenomenal job of taking early action in testing and isolation or they are under reporting. However, even with there is some suppression of the problem, there is no way they could hide a hotspot with the magnitude of NYC.

 
We know the US isn't testing nearly enough. Locally here we are only testing 65 or older with certain symptoms int he drive-thru. Orange County, FL tried to test 250 people yesterday but didn't make it. They also turned away almost 180 people.  The virus is certainly much more rampant than is being reported. If most untested are surviving then  that's a great thing.

With that said I'm positive Russia and China are covering up their numbers.  Chernobyl gives you a glimpse at just how devious they can be in covering up their problems.

BTW ... the car wash around the corner is still open. Didn't realize clean cars were essential did you?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 27, 2020, 10:04:10 am
We know the US isn't testing nearly enough. Locally here we are only testing 65 or older with certain symptoms int he drive-thru. Orange County, FL tried to test 250 people yesterday but didn't make it. They also turned away almost 180 people.  The virus is certainly much more rampant than is being reported. If most untested are surviving then  that's a great thing.

With that said I'm positive Russia and China are covering up their numbers.  Chernobyl gives you a glimpse at just how devious they can be in covering up their problems.

BTW ... the car wash around the corner is still open. Didn't realize clean cars were essential did you?

You can hide a few deaths.  But no way could Russia hide an outbreak like NYC or Northern Italy.  They were able to hide Chernobyl for only a few days.

As for the carwash.  Does it require violating social distancing? The one I use all I do is put money in the machine and drive forward.  As long as you are careful with the bill feeder no risk.  No idea if it is open.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 27, 2020, 10:24:17 am
You can hide a few deaths.  But no way could Russia hide an outbreak like NYC or Northern Italy.  They were able to hide Chernobyl for only a few days.

As for the carwash.  Does it require violating social distancing? The one I use all I do is put money in the machine and drive forward.  As long as you are careful with the bill feeder no risk.  No idea if it is open.
It's one with people and not just a drive thru. I get that it's probably fine but it just seems odd in a lock down.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 27, 2020, 11:12:58 am
it is odd in a lock down .. the machine car washes are ok i guess


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on March 27, 2020, 11:37:50 am
Things are really getting bad, don't click this if you have a weak stomach.  I don't know how we recover.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 27, 2020, 11:48:43 am
Things are really getting bad, don't click this if you have a weak stomach.  I don't know how we recover.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)

That joke is lame under the best of conditions.  But it really loses any humor, if you see the title and get a tmobile ad and can click off before the song even begins. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 27, 2020, 02:19:15 pm
We know the US isn't testing nearly enough. Locally here we are only testing 65 or older with certain symptoms int he drive-thru. Orange County, FL tried to test 250 people yesterday but didn't make it. They also turned away almost 180 people.  The virus is certainly much more rampant than is being reported. If most untested are surviving then  that's a great thing.

With that said I'm positive Russia and China are covering up their numbers.  Chernobyl gives you a glimpse at just how devious they can be in covering up their problems.

BTW ... the car wash around the corner is still open. Didn't realize clean cars were essential did you?

No lockdown in the county unless that changed today


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 27, 2020, 02:34:34 pm
No lockdown in the county unless that changed today

I'm specifically speaking about Orange County and not Seminole.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on March 27, 2020, 03:12:46 pm
i got my car washed today! .. it was automated.. .. just thought i'd share


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on March 27, 2020, 03:16:49 pm
That joke is lame under the best of conditions.  But it really loses any humor, if you see the title and get a tmobile ad and can click off before the song even begins. 
From the guy with the worst puns I've ever seen, I'll take this with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 27, 2020, 03:44:29 pm
From the guy with the worst puns I've ever seen, I'll take this with a grain of salt.

But my puns are original. Rick Roll lacks all originality


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on March 27, 2020, 04:23:21 pm
But my puns are original. Rick Roll lacks all originality

 ::)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on March 27, 2020, 07:35:05 pm
I'm specifically speaking about Orange County and not Seminole.

Ah. I  thought I  knew exactly which car wash.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 28, 2020, 04:15:32 am
BTW ... the car wash around the corner is still open. Didn't realize clean cars were essential did you?
I think there's a matrix of how essential is it? vs. how safe is it?
I'd say mostly-automated car washes should remain open as long as the employees don't pose a risk to each other.  Think of the economy!

Restaurants are still all open for take-out here.  I practically never bring my lunch to work - I can count on my fingers the number of times I've brought my lunch in the last 15 years - but I think I might need to start?  Cross that bridge when I come to it, I suppose.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: dolphins4life on March 28, 2020, 09:14:01 pm
What exactly happens in a lockdown?

Is it different than the stay at home advisory we have here in MA?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: dolphins4life on March 28, 2020, 09:14:14 pm
Did somebody really cause this by eating a bat?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on March 30, 2020, 08:22:38 am
What exactly happens in a lockdown?

Is it different than the stay at home advisory we have here in MA?

Different rules depending on the local government but in a lockdown only essential businesses can operate. In some places you can only be on the road to visit the DRs office, go the grocery store or go to your "essential business" to work. It's a step up from just a recommendation to stay home.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on March 30, 2020, 02:04:15 pm
Did somebody really cause this by eating a bat?

No.

1. No one knows if the source was a bat (although bat or pangolin are a likely source). There are a lot of different strains of corona viruses present in both, but none have been found that matches SARS-CoV-2.

2. Eating something is not a likely infection pathway. More likely handling of the animal / guano, either during capture, sales or slaughter.

3. The entire question is poorly framed, assigning individual guilt where none applies. If a burger chain sold an infected product, would you say the consumer who happened to buy that product

4. Current best guess at a "patient zero" is a specific woman who worked in a food stall in the wet market in Wuhan and contacted her doctor on 11 December. There are indications that there were infections prior to this elsewhere, though. That's the problem when the source hasn't been identified. It's not like this virus was present in only ONE animal and infected only ONE person. More likely, the virus is present in a population of bats or pangolins and has jumped to humans on more than one occasion (and could so again unless the source population is found and dealt with).



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on March 30, 2020, 02:15:56 pm
I'm pretty sure that they know it's due to pangolin.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: masterfins on March 30, 2020, 06:27:26 pm
We will be at the end of the run and playgrounds will be safe again.  This will probably kill about  ~150 thousand before we have enough of the population with immunity to the slow the exponential spread and another ~100 thousand after the inflection point. Unless we get a vaccine first.  (very rough numbers, could be more)

I am not underestimating the seriousness of this disease. But I don’t think flattening the curve will do much unless you think that we can delay the spread long enough to get a vaccine.  I am resigned to the fact almost everyone is going to get it.  Those who survive will be immune and once there is nobody left for it to transmit to it will end.

Agree.  Until we get to the point that over 50% of the population has been infected the number of infected will continue to rise.  Best case scenario is that it will take 12 months to get a vaccine, and maybe 18 months.  The question I have is what percentage of the severely infected that go on respirators are surviving?  If the survival rate with a respirator is still extremely low then are we just making ourselves feel better by stretching out the curve from months to years?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 30, 2020, 08:55:58 pm
If you shorten the curve, then the hospitals are flooded and the fatality rate for everything - from car accidents to kidney failure to cancer - increases.

The idea that there is some benefit to killing more people quickly is a fantasy.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on March 31, 2020, 08:12:43 am
I'm pretty sure that they know it's due to pangolin.

They said that seemed the most likely initially. Then it was bats. The latest report from the WHO sampling animal populations in the area is that they haven't found a strain that matches very closely in either group, so the question is still open. It's even possible according to the report that it jumped to humans first, circulated for a while before mutating to the current form. This was picked up and reported by the media ("corona virus might have circulated for years"), but in reality it is the more unlikely scenario since no such strain has been found humans.

The two previous corona-virus outbreaks (SARS and MERS) jumped from civets (cat-like wild animal) and camels, respectively. SARS didn't actually originate in the civets, though, but rather in a population of horseshoe bats, but the human infections uses the civets as an intermediary.

SARS (technically SARS-CoV-1) is very closely related to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 31, 2020, 03:59:05 pm
If you shorten the curve, then the hospitals are flooded and the fatality rate for everything - from car accidents to kidney failure to cancer - increases.

The idea that there is some benefit to killing more people quickly is a fantasy.

Maybe.  If the hospitals are overloaded for one month than for one month car accident victims can’t get care.  If hospitals are overloaded for three months than for three months car accident victims can’t get care. 



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 31, 2020, 04:46:50 pm
"Overloaded" is not a binary yes/no status.
The degree of overload matters.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on March 31, 2020, 05:50:25 pm
"Overloaded" is not a binary yes/no status.
The degree of overload matters.

True, but so does length.  Let’s assume automobile accidents require 10 ICU beds per week.

And that if we don’t flatten the curve for one week the ICU will be overloaded by a factor of 10 meaning that they can only treat 1 out of 10 patients. OTOH of we flatten the curve for 5 weeks the ICU will be double capacity. 

That would mean that with the spike there would be one week in which 9 of the accident victims could not get an ICU bed, but with the flatten model there would be 5 weeks in which each week 5 victims could not be treated for a total of 25. 

I am not heartless, I am not trying to sacrifice people for the economy.  But 9 deaths is better than 25. And that is my concern with extending the curve.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 31, 2020, 06:22:18 pm
You fail to account for the increase in medical staff who gets sick due to increased exposure and lack of sufficient PPE (which is already a problem even with existing measures).   You are also failing to account for all the people whose lives will be saved by extending the curve.  And the longer we extend the curve, the more time we have to hire additional medical staff, manufacture more ventilators, and build more emergency hospitals (like at the Javits Center).


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on March 31, 2020, 11:59:08 pm
dolphins4life, I split the Facebook post you pasted into a different thread.

Please try to keep this thread free of partisan political discussion.  I'm sure you all know I am more than willing to engage in such discussion, but I started this thread as a way to discuss this crisis outside of the left/right divide, and so far we've gone 9 pages with very little of it.

The actions we take every day during this crisis are critically important, and I don't want that discussion to be obscured by everyday political sniping.  Thanks.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: dolphins4life on April 01, 2020, 01:43:25 am
The actions we take everyday are important, which leaves me with a crisis that I posted in another thread.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on April 01, 2020, 12:47:48 pm
This is interesting. Seems pretty feasible to me. Just FYI, SWA removes the entire cabin seats from an aircraft quite often to do maintenance which sometimes requires pulling up the floor boards underneath the seats. It really is as easy as they made it sound in the article. Also the hangars where we do the maintenance have air conditioning ducts that attach to the aircraft when they are doing heavy maintenance work like this. I can see this working and perhaps even be a source of revenue for the airlines. Not sure exactly how all that would work, but I would think it at least makes sense to look into it's feasibility.

https://medium.com/@aliarab.2020/turning-airlines-into-lifelines-709d659e6342


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on April 01, 2020, 03:59:48 pm
More information about the Airline industry and the proposed government relief.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/03/31/coronavirus-stimulus-package-us-airlines-must-continue-flying/5093641002/

https://apnews.com/5286bcd6b87db2865a64639a18811a4e


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: dolphins4life on April 02, 2020, 10:00:10 pm
Work has been so stressful

I forgot to use a face shield while doing a throat swab on a patient, and spent the rest of the day worrying.  My coworkers said the patient didn't cough, so I shouldn't worry.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on April 03, 2020, 10:41:08 am
I think that COVID-19 is the Lord's wrath on a world that has turned their back on Him.   I'm actually an atheist.  I just thought I'd throw that out there to see if I could start a good argument. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 03, 2020, 11:02:59 am
I think that COVID-19 is the Lord's wrath on a world that has turned their back on Him.   I'm actually an atheist.  I just thought I'd throw that out there to see if I could start a good argument. 
None of the arguments here are any good lol.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on April 03, 2020, 01:54:36 pm
I think that COVID-19 is the Lord's wrath on a world that has turned their back on Him.   I'm actually an atheist.  I just thought I'd throw that out there to see if I could start a good argument. 
I'm Catholic, but I don't really believe in all that wrath of God stuff either...and I don't really want to get into a discussion what I believe from a religious standpoint here. But on the other hand I do believe there is something about nature finding a way when things get out of balance to bring them back into balance. Viruses and the like are a great illustration of that in my opinion. Sometimes things are necessary in the short term for the long term well being of the race.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 09, 2020, 02:43:51 am
California's Gov. Newsom just announced that CA has inked a deal for 200 million masks per month (150M N95, 50M surgical) with the ability to potentially distribute them to other states in need.

https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1247698364063518720


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 13, 2020, 10:44:31 am
So I see a lot of comments on the internet bashing the US and how other countries are handling this better.  When the populations are closer in number it shows a different story.  I would like to know people's opinions on this here.

https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249182592659849217?s=19 (https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249182592659849217?s=19)

Ryan Saavedra
@RealSaavedra
U.S. population: 328,000,000

France/Germany/Italy/U.K./Spain population: 324,000,000

Coronavirus cases:

-U.S.: 526,396
-F/G/I/UK/S: 650,807

Coronavirus deaths:

-U.S.: 20,463
-F/G/I/UK/S: 62,553

Source: Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 13, 2020, 03:51:07 pm
You're talking about 5 countries with 5 entirely different governments.  There is no single entity with the power to, say, issue a shelter-in-place order across all 5 countries.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 13, 2020, 03:59:15 pm
You're talking about 5 countries with 5 entirely different governments.  There is no single entity with the power to, say, issue a shelter-in-place order across all 5 countries.
European Union?  Other than the UK.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 13, 2020, 04:18:22 pm
The EU cannot unilaterally issue those kinds of orders like our federal government can.  The EU also doesn't have an equivalent of FEMA, or the Army Corps of Engineers.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: BuccaneerBrad on April 13, 2020, 04:22:12 pm
^^^^

And every single one of those countries has a smaller land mass and smaller population than some U.S. States.

On an entirely separate note, I'm going to call this the CCP Virus.  CCP = Chinese Communist Party.   They knew about this as far back as early December, but sat on the information for six weeks.   They also imprisoned and/or executed the whistle-blowers who tried to get the information out to the world media.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 13, 2020, 04:48:07 pm
Please take the virus-naming talk to another thread.  Thanks.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on April 13, 2020, 05:20:09 pm
So I see a lot of comments on the internet bashing the US and how other countries are handling this better.  When the populations are closer in number it shows a different story.  I would like to know people's opinions on this here.

https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249182592659849217?s=19 (https://twitter.com/RealSaavedra/status/1249182592659849217?s=19)

Ryan Saavedra
@RealSaavedra
U.S. population: 328,000,000

France/Germany/Italy/U.K./Spain population: 324,000,000

Coronavirus cases:

-U.S.: 526,396
-F/G/I/UK/S: 650,807

Coronavirus deaths:

-U.S.: 20,463
-F/G/I/UK/S: 62,553

Source: Johns Hopkins University & Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center

Media is doing everything they can to frighten people.  They are a part of the system to make Trump look bad and will say anything. I almost laughed out loud when we "surpassed" Italy. A country barely larger than Florida. Once we surpass the numbers of H1N1 under Obama then maybe I'll give some time in listening to media. As it is ... I still remember when Trump was constantly being attacked for doing things too early.

Like I said before ... It won't be time to judge Trump, Cuomo, Desantis, or whomever until this thing is done and then it needs to only be done in the eye of looking to never repeat. In 2004 we had three hurricanes pass over Central Florida and we failed miserably in a lot of ways. The good thing is we learned so much that similar conditions almost go unnoticed because of the upgrades to policy, procedures, and equipment. I fully expect the same to happen after this.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on April 13, 2020, 06:59:43 pm
Media is doing everything they can to frighten people.  They are a part of the system to make Trump look bad and will say anything. I almost laughed out loud when we "surpassed" Italy. A country barely larger than Florida. Once we surpass the numbers of H1N1 under Obama then maybe I'll give some time in listening to media. As it is ... I still remember when Trump was constantly being attacked for doing things too early.

Like I said before ... It won't be time to judge Trump, Cuomo, Desantis, or whomever until this thing is done and then it needs to only be done in the eye of looking to never repeat. In 2004 we had three hurricanes pass over Central Florida and we failed miserably in a lot of ways. The good thing is we learned so much that similar conditions almost go unnoticed because of the upgrades to policy, procedures, and equipment. I fully expect the same to happen after this.

Hopefully, we'll have some better antibiotics the next time a novel virus shows it's germy little face.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on April 13, 2020, 07:18:43 pm
Hopefully, we'll have some better antibiotics the next time a novel virus shows it's germy little face.

That is impossible.  A scientific impossibility. 

Antibiotics fight diseases caused by bacteria, not viruses.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on April 13, 2020, 08:35:25 pm
That is impossible.  A scientific impossibility.  

Antibiotics fight diseases caused by bacteria, not viruses.  
And what's worse ... it appears this virus can reinfect those that have antibodies. If I understand this correctly I would think this means vaccines will be useless.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 13, 2020, 09:01:28 pm
Once we surpass the numbers of H1N1 under Obama then maybe I'll give some time in listening to media.
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 12,469 deaths in the US from H1N1.
From February 29, 2020 to today (less than 7 weeks), there have been 23,330 deaths in the US from CV-19.
Keep in mind that the former number is entirely in hindsight months later, after plenty of time to research and categorize all the deaths.  There are thousands of people dying at home in NY who are not currently categorized as CV-19 deaths, but may be later.

Sad to see people still trying to downplay and softsell this virus.  It is not H1N1, it is not the flu.  It is far more deadly than either.

Here's another disappointing example:

Coronavirus: Pastor who decried 'hysteria' dies after attending Mardi Gras (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52157824)

Key quotes:

- Pastor Spradlin's son, Landon Isaac, 32, told me that he and his father had talked and agreed about what they felt was an irrational frenzy and fear mongering about the virus, perhaps because it was an election year.

- "I was frustrated with the way that the media was very agenda driven - and it's on both sides. I feel like the coronavirus issue turned into something that was 'party against party' instead of one nation under God," [Spradlin's daughter] says.


The fear was entirely rational.  At the end of the day, when the body count is tallied, it won't matter which party said what; all that will matter is which officials took this crisis seriously and acted with urgency, and which ones tried to deemphasize the risk and minimize their action.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on April 14, 2020, 02:17:07 am
I need some clarification on something I literally don't understand.  I'm not politically trolling -- I legitimately don't get it.

Our Governor, Ron Desantis, has been floating the idea of getting kids back to school.  ....like, as early as May 1st, in some reports.  Now, that's not happening, so I'm not worried about it, but my question is WHY?

I don't understand the value that it brings you, even if it were to be harmless.  I get wanting to start the economy back up and get people back working and all that -- but kids aren't working.  They don't help the economy.  And the teachers are working remotely and getting paid and the kids are still receiving some level of education.

So, I would at least understand wanting to open non-essential businesses again at a rate that could risk infection....like restaurants and bars, but why schools?  That doesn't stimulate the economy at all.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Brian Fein on April 14, 2020, 02:24:04 am
I need some clarification on something I literally don't understand.  I'm not politically trolling -- I legitimately don't get it.

Our Governor, Ron Desantis, has been floating the idea of getting kids back to school.  ....like, as early as May 1st, in some reports.  Now, that's not happening, so I'm not worried about it, but my question is WHY?

I don't understand the value that it brings you, even if it were to be harmless.  I get wanting to start the economy back up and get people back working and all that -- but kids aren't working.  They don't help the economy.  And the teachers are working remotely and getting paid and the kids are still receiving some level of education.

So, I would at least understand wanting to open non-essential businesses again at a rate that could risk infection....like restaurants and bars, but why schools?  That doesn't stimulate the economy at all.
because it's a stepping stone to opening up everything else...?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on April 14, 2020, 03:57:55 am
That is impossible.  A scientific impossibility. 

Antibiotics fight diseases caused by bacteria, not viruses.   

Really? I'm pretty sure 45 knows better than some random dude on a website.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 14, 2020, 07:47:57 am
Really? I'm pretty sure 45 knows better than some random dude on a website.
Take a screenshot, I'm agreeing with Hoodie.  Antibiotics do not treat viruses, they fight infections caused by bacteria.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on April 14, 2020, 08:59:57 am
Really? I'm pretty sure 45 knows better than some random dude on a website.

Sadly he doesn’t.,


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on April 14, 2020, 09:06:08 am
I need some clarification on something I literally don't understand.  I'm not politically trolling -- I legitimately don't get it.

Our Governor, Ron Desantis, has been floating the idea of getting kids back to school.  ....like, as early as May 1st, in some reports.  Now, that's not happening, so I'm not worried about it, but my question is WHY?

I don't understand the value that it brings you, even if it were to be harmless.  I get wanting to start the economy back up and get people back working and all that -- but kids aren't working.  They don't help the economy.  And the teachers are working remotely and getting paid and the kids are still receiving some level of education.

So, I would at least understand wanting to open non-essential businesses again at a rate that could risk infection....like restaurants and bars, but why schools?  That doesn't stimulate the economy at all.

What are we going to do with the kids?  Many working parents are dependent on schools and summer camps for childcare while they work. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on April 14, 2020, 09:26:15 am
Really? I'm pretty sure 45 knows better than some random dude on a website.

I appreciate that .. I think your joke went over alot of heads.

And the media is actually doing alright with this coverage for the most part. Even fox news is sorta ok when it comes to virus coverage. Trump looks horrid trying to manage this, the level of incompetence is staggering. He went from "i'm not responsible" to saying the governors were the ones to call the shots in their states to yesterday declaring the united states a dictatorship. What a staggering clown. He can't be run out of the white house fast enough.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 14, 2020, 09:28:07 am
I appreciate that .. I think your joke went over alot of heads.

And the media is actually doing alright with this coverage for the most part. Even fox news is sorta ok when it comes to virus coverage. Trump looks horrid trying to manage this, the level of incompetence is staggering. He went from "i'm not responsible" to saying the governors were the ones to call the shots in their states to yesterday declaring the united states a dictatorship. What a staggering clown. He can't be run out of the white house fast enough.
Thing is, with dementia Joe, he won't be.  Be prepped for 4 more years.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on April 14, 2020, 11:49:31 am
Sadly he doesn’t.,

It was, as Fau pointed out, a joke. Apparently, I need to start using sarcasm tags ;-).


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on April 14, 2020, 04:05:32 pm
It was, as Fau pointed out, a joke. Apparently, I need to start using sarcasm tags ;-).

Given the amount of misinformation being spewed by the president and Fox and the number of people who believe them, it wasn’t obvious you were joking. 



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: BuccaneerBrad on April 14, 2020, 06:39:09 pm
Thing is, with dementia Joe, he won't be.  Be prepped for 4 more years.

That's what I'm thinking.  Trump is gonna wipe the floor with Biden come November.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on April 14, 2020, 09:14:07 pm
I need some clarification on something I literally don't understand.  I'm not politically trolling -- I legitimately don't get it.

Our Governor, Ron Desantis, has been floating the idea of getting kids back to school.  ....like, as early as May 1st, in some reports.  Now, that's not happening, so I'm not worried about it, but my question is WHY?

I don't understand the value that it brings you, even if it were to be harmless.  I get wanting to start the economy back up and get people back working and all that -- but kids aren't working.  They don't help the economy.  And the teachers are working remotely and getting paid and the kids are still receiving some level of education.

So, I would at least understand wanting to open non-essential businesses again at a rate that could risk infection....like restaurants and bars, but why schools?  That doesn't stimulate the economy at all.

The main reason (at least in Australia) is so parents in essential industries (like health, social services, critical retail and manufacturing, etc) can still go out and work without being reliant on childcare - it indirectly assists the economy that way.

Also, it is still thought there is less of a risk of serious illness consequences to children given the statistics to date. Of course there is the counter argument that children going to schools could act as carriers and conduits to transmit the disease between households...


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on April 14, 2020, 10:20:37 pm
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 12,469 deaths in the US from H1N1.
From February 29, 2020 to today (less than 7 weeks), there have been 23,330 deaths in the US from CV-19.
Keep in mind that the former number is entirely in hindsight months later, after plenty of time to research and categorize all the deaths.  There are thousands of people dying at home in NY who are not currently categorized as CV-19 deaths, but may be later.

Sad to see people still trying to downplay and softsell this virus.  It is not H1N1, it is not the flu.  It is far more deadly than either.

Here's another disappointing example:

Coronavirus: Pastor who decried 'hysteria' dies after attending Mardi Gras (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52157824)

Key quotes:

- Pastor Spradlin's son, Landon Isaac, 32, told me that he and his father had talked and agreed about what they felt was an irrational frenzy and fear mongering about the virus, perhaps because it was an election year.

- "I was frustrated with the way that the media was very agenda driven - and it's on both sides. I feel like the coronavirus issue turned into something that was 'party against party' instead of one nation under God," [Spradlin's daughter] says.


The fear was entirely rational.  At the end of the day, when the body count is tallied, it won't matter which party said what; all that will matter is which officials took this crisis seriously and acted with urgency, and which ones tried to deemphasize the risk and minimize their action.

Yes, there's a good reason the media are trying to scare the shit out of people - and why some who did not take it seriously enough early on woke up when some of the horrific death rates began appearing from Italy, Spain, France, UK...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?

Some of the figures are already comparable to the deadly Spanish flu of 1918 - if death rates over 10% doesn't scare people, nothing will.

Then there's the likely prospect that there never may be a vaccine - there was never one for the deadly SARS or MERS viruses, they were quarantined until they burnt out. Unfortunately, this virus is widespread enough and infectious enough that it may not be an option and could be with us until it runs its course (which could take years).

Ultimately we may be just buying enough time to have enough medical resources to cope with a massive surge of cases without them being overwhelmed like in the worst affected countries of Western Europe (and New York for that matter).

We have been very lucky here in Australia to date with relatively low infection, community transmission and death rates - the majority of cases have been directly traced to cruise ships or other returning from overseas (now resulting in compulsory quarantine in hotels for a minimum of 14 days). But even with our preparations, most are aware of what is going on elsewhere and that there is a chance things could get much worse in the short term, or eventually in the long term as things try to return to some kind of normal.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on April 15, 2020, 07:03:21 am
Then there's the likely prospect that there never may be a vaccine - there was never one for the deadly SARS or MERS viruses, they were quarantined until they burnt out. Unfortunately, this virus is widespread enough and infectious enough that it may not be an option and could be with us until it runs its course (which could take years).

The reason a vaccine was never developed for SARS and MERS is that they were contained quickly enough that "we" (in the wealthy part of the world) were no longer affected by it and that even the affected regions only saw a minimal number of infected cases (about 8000 globally for SARS, 3500 for MERS). There were several vaccines in development for these, SARS in particular, but the funding dried up before they were complete.

That prior work is being fast-tracked now, as are numerous other attempts at developing a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. I just read about one vaccine effort from the UK that is doing human trials in parallel with animal trials. In short, all the stops are being pulled out and I would be very surprised if we don't see a vaccine at some point. (So your "like prospect" of there never being a vaccine is quite unlikely, IMHO.)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on April 15, 2020, 09:55:08 am
The reason a vaccine was never developed for SARS and MERS is that they were contained quickly enough that "we" (in the wealthy part of the world) were no longer affected by it and that even the affected regions only saw a minimal number of infected cases (about 8000 globally for SARS, 3500 for MERS). There were several vaccines in development for these, SARS in particular, but the funding dried up before they were complete.

That prior work is being fast-tracked now, as are numerous other attempts at developing a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. I just read about one vaccine effort from the UK that is doing human trials in parallel with animal trials. In short, all the stops are being pulled out and I would be very surprised if we don't see a vaccine at some point. (So your "like prospect" of there never being a vaccine is quite unlikely, IMHO.)

I don't doubt the kitchen sink is being thrown at this, as has been widely reported a lot of existing treatments are being tested to try and find a quick fix. There are stories of progress and possible human trials of new treatments that would normally take years longer to get to that stage, and yet there is also the admission that a vaccine may be so late to develop the virus may already run its course. That's if a vaccine ever comes to fruition.

Lockdowns and putting economies into suspended animation can only last so long, already we are starting to see countries like Spain taking the foot off the brake despite having a nearly 10.5% death rate. It's a pretty safe bet that in six months most of if not the rest of the world will have followed suit because of economic pressure - then it will be a case of juggling just how much the health systems can take before they break and the fatalities get out of hand - that's the cold, hard way they will look at it.

Under those circumstances, even with everything being thrown at developing a vaccine, our chances are at best 50/50. I don't think they are that good, I think it's more likely this virus will rip through the rest of the world within the next 12-24 months, how many survive will depend on the medical resources available (and a huge chunk of luck).


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on April 16, 2020, 11:43:50 pm
Under those circumstances, even with everything being thrown at developing a vaccine, our chances are at best 50/50. I don't think they are that good, I think it's more likely this virus will rip through the rest of the world within the next 12-24 months, how many survive will depend on the medical resources available (and a huge chunk of luck).

An article about the potentially long road to creating a safe coronavirus vaccine, and why it has never been achieved before (including some references to the disastrous SARS tests on lab monkeys in 2003).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: SCFinfan on April 28, 2020, 01:21:17 pm
Hey y'all,

Sorry this is a bit belated - a lot of things going on here in Charleston. I wish you all the best during this pandemic. I hope everyone's been healthy, and that no one's family has been affected. I didn't read any of the comments in this thread before posting it, so if there is bad news, I am sorry, and I'll pray for you and your family, or donate if you have a GFM.

Take care and be well, and Go Dolphins!

SC


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on April 28, 2020, 01:30:16 pm
From what I can tell, everyone on the site is healthy...no cases.

I still don't know anyone personally who has shared that they have 100% had the virus and tested positive.
Today, I do have my first case of someone directly related to someone I know dying of it.  My friend's grandmother died of COVID-19 yesterday.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on April 28, 2020, 01:46:10 pm
I only know of one person for sure that was tested. Someone at work, who lives with their sister who got it, was quarantined for two weeks and had to pass to come back to work.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 28, 2020, 09:58:17 pm
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: SCFinfan on April 28, 2020, 11:12:59 pm
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

I hope your recovery is quick, easy, and without complications or setbacks.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 28, 2020, 11:56:16 pm
Let me just tell you guys, the test is the flat out pits.

Imagine the absolute farthest you could possibly tolerate a swab being stuck up your nose.  Then go three inches past that.

It's like they're trying to touch your brain.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on April 29, 2020, 06:29:40 am
From what I can tell, everyone on the site is healthy...no cases.

I still don't know anyone personally who has shared that they have 100% had the virus and tested positive.
Today, I do have my first case of someone directly related to someone I know dying of it.  My friend's grandmother died of COVID-19 yesterday.

My mother was supposed to have gone on a vacation right when this thing was starting to blow up. She was going on a tennis holiday with 3 friends and didn't want to break up the doubles-arrangement by being the only one to cancel. My siblings and I banded together and pretty much forced her to cancel. The other three all went and sent daily pics and updates about how great it was. One of them started showing symptoms on the way back, tested positive, wound up on a ventilator for a few weeks, and then died.

All I can say is that I am very grateful that we managed to keep our mom from going.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on April 29, 2020, 07:52:27 am
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

Very sorry to hear this news.  Be sure to do exactly what they tell you to do in order to get over it.  COVID is nothing to be messed with.  Not to try to scare you, but the father-in-law of one of my best friends died from it.  He was older and had a lot of health issues already so I'm sure that contributed to it.  But just do what the doctors tell you to do. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on April 29, 2020, 11:20:34 am
My mother was supposed to have gone on a vacation right when this thing was starting to blow up. She was going on a tennis holiday with 3 friends and didn't want to break up the doubles-arrangement by being the only one to cancel. My siblings and I banded together and pretty much forced her to cancel. The other three all went and sent daily pics and updates about how great it was. One of them started showing symptoms on the way back, tested positive, wound up on a ventilator for a few weeks, and then died.

All I can say is that I am very grateful that we managed to keep our mom from going.

Wow....that's crazy.  Glad you made the choice you did.  Socially, this has been a little difficult to manage.  You have to battle feeling rude for the way you act.  Sometimes, we get a little lax in my family, but generally are doing the right thing.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on April 29, 2020, 02:32:29 pm
Things are starting to open up but things won't be the same. I for one need to start interacting with people again.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on April 29, 2020, 03:25:41 pm
I am 100% great with the lockdown.  My wife and I's relationship couldn't be stronger.  People suck for the most part anyway.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on April 29, 2020, 04:31:22 pm
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

On behalf of the entire 49ers organization, I wish you a speedy recovery...

 :D



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: masterfins on April 29, 2020, 04:34:39 pm
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

I hope you recover quickly without getting the worst of effects.  I'm sure you've read up on all the homeopathic remedies out there.  I've always been a believer in drinking tonic water (which contains a small amount of quinine) to help stay hydrated and reduce aches & pains.  I always try to drink it after a hot day in the sun golfing or working, as it helps you hydrate better than water, and reduces/eliminates the leg cramps from the dehydration.  Then there is also zinc which helps reduce the severity of colds.  These aren't a cure, but they can help with reducing the symptoms. Good Luck!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on April 29, 2020, 04:44:09 pm
Please keep us updated as possible. Wishing you the best.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: pondwater on April 29, 2020, 06:39:53 pm
Let me just tell you guys, the test is the flat out pits.

Imagine the absolute farthest you could possibly tolerate a swab being stuck up your nose.  Then go three inches past that.

It's like they're trying to touch your brain.
Yeah, I saw that test on Facebook. I replied that it looked more like a 3rd world IQ test, lol. Hope you recover quickly Spider. Keep us updated on the symptoms and how you're doing. Take care guy, wishing you all the best.

I hope you recover quickly without getting the worst of effects.  I'm sure you've read up on all the homeopathic remedies out there.  I've always been a believer in drinking tonic water (which contains a small amount of quinine) to help stay hydrated and reduce aches & pains.  I always try to drink it after a hot day in the sun golfing or working, as it helps you hydrate better than water, and reduces/eliminates the leg cramps from the dehydration.  Then there is also zinc which helps reduce the severity of colds.  These aren't a cure, but they can help with reducing the symptoms. Good Luck!
And a little Tanqueray and Lime makes it even better  ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on April 29, 2020, 11:44:48 pm
Thank you all for your concern.  I sincerely appreciate it.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on April 30, 2020, 08:48:09 am
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.
Holy crap Spider! I'm very sorry to hear this. Hopefully you'll kick this fairly easy. I'm praying for you and yours as you go through this difficult time.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on April 30, 2020, 09:22:30 am
Spider, i hope you recover quickly and fully!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Brian Fein on April 30, 2020, 10:45:59 am
Sorry to hear Spider, hope you get better quickly.  When you recover, it would be cool if you could share some of your experiences.

I know 2 other friends who think they had it, but they both got tested and came back negative.  But I have seen that an estimated 30% of negative verdicts are potentially inaccurate.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on April 30, 2020, 10:52:14 am
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

Please take care, I wish you a speedy recovery!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: David Fulcher on May 01, 2020, 10:42:14 pm
I tested positive for CV-19 today.   :-\
Have had a fever bouncing around the 99-101 range since Friday, with a very minor cough.  Day 6-8 is supposed to be the worst as far as symptoms, so we'll see how it goes.

Know I don't post here very often (though just a Smidge bit more of late--also been partaking a lot in your Best of 64 Comic Book Movies Tourney on several votes of late as well), but I've lurked off-and-on (and way more "on", in particular during the pre- and regular and post-season, as well as "Draft" season) for many years now.
Either way, just wishing you the best in a hopeful complete and not setback-laden recovery!

Get well, and like others have been saying, keep us in the loop on how you're doing.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 01, 2020, 10:55:16 pm
Doing fine so far.  Day 6-8 is where symptoms are supposed to be the worst, and I'm nearing the end of day 8 with only mild symptoms to date.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 02, 2020, 12:02:27 pm
What made you go for testing?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 02, 2020, 10:19:42 pm
Fever and cough.

My symptoms have been "mild," but I have been hovering between 99-101 for over a week.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on May 03, 2020, 03:52:30 am
Fever and cough.

My symptoms have been "mild," but I have been hovering between 99-101 for over a week.

Best of luck to you. Really hope it stays mild.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 04, 2020, 10:46:16 am
Glad to hear you are still doing well!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on May 04, 2020, 12:02:41 pm
I've been staying in touch with Spider.  Worst of the symptoms appear to be over....generally a mild case, but now he's on quarantine.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 04, 2020, 12:19:18 pm
I've been staying in touch with Spider.  Worst of the symptoms appear to be over....generally a mild case, but now he's on quarantine.
Good to hear


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MaineDolFan on May 04, 2020, 01:29:12 pm
Late to the party; glad to hear Spider has a mild case.  Please keep things close to the vest, Spider. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 14, 2020, 05:14:27 pm
Feeling better, and my test from yesterday came back negative.  If everyone's symptoms were as mild as mine have been, this virus would be a non-issue.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 14, 2020, 06:29:05 pm
Glad to hear you have recovered and especially that it wasn't worse than it was!


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 14, 2020, 09:33:07 pm
Feeling better, and my test from yesterday came back negative.  If everyone's symptoms were as mild as mine have been, this virus would be a non-issue.

Good to hear. The thing is, as big an issue as it is,  we still have no idea exactly how many people have been infected if we are to believe that some people show no symptoms. You can't believe any number statistic being thrown around.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 14, 2020, 11:07:43 pm
I think "number of deaths" is still a meaningful statistic, even if we can't catch a) people who are dying at home without being tested or b) people who have tested positive but died due to unrelated preexisting conditions.  It's clear that we have many, many more deaths from poor health than we did in March and April of 2019.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on May 15, 2020, 05:30:19 am
Good to hear. The thing is, as big an issue as it is,  we still have no idea exactly how many people have been infected if we are to believe that some people show no symptoms. You can't believe any number statistic being thrown around.

Widespread tests for antibodies is the normal way to get a picture of how many were exposed at some point. Spain just completed a large test and only 5% of the population tested positive, with some metropolitan regions edging above 10%. A similar picture was seen in France with about 4.5% of the total population and 9-10% in the hardest hit areas of Paris.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on May 15, 2020, 08:21:59 am
Feeling better, and my test from yesterday came back negative.  If everyone's symptoms were as mild as mine have been, this virus would be a non-issue.
Sounds similar to what my daughter went through. The worst part of it was the fever.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on May 15, 2020, 11:24:04 am
In terms of deaths, I think that the most meaningful stat will come from simply taking the average number of deaths in a given month and comparing it to the actual number of deaths posts Covid.  We'll probably be able to get a pretty decent number.  We don't really know what to attribute to Covid otherwise.


Personally, I'm loosening restrictions a bit, but only within my family and friends.  We're starting to intermingle a bit with my sister, sending my daughter to Grandma's for "school" each day and I may have a friend or two over to do a project in the garage.  Meanwhile, while I'm doing that, I'm exposing myself to the general public less.  I haven't gone back to the grocery in a while (did Instacart) and I've done so many projects that I'm not really short on supplies from Home Depot, where I was going about once a week. 

I imagine that as things open up, we'll see an increase in people getting this.  Hopefully, those people that go out in the first wave are the healthiest and will recover and not be able to get sick again.  As more and more people venture out into the world, eventually, I'll feel safe enough that I can take on that risk for my family.

I'm really most worried about my mother-in-law.  She's the one I'm trying to protect most in all of this.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 18, 2020, 01:29:57 pm
I think "number of deaths" is still a meaningful statistic, even if we can't catch a) people who are dying at home without being tested or b) people who have tested positive but died due to unrelated preexisting conditions.  It's clear that we have many, many more deaths from poor health than we did in March and April of 2019.

Number of deaths has been misrepresented in some cases.  Colorado was reporting deaths with in the same numbers as death from. I didn't dig deep but I saw in one place this caused a 23 percent drop once corrected.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 18, 2020, 09:55:50 pm
Technically, nobody dies from AIDS.  AIDS destroys your immune system, and then you catch a disease which you are unable to fight off, and that disease kills you.  So does that mean we should categorize AIDS as a disease that causes zero deaths?  Of course not, because it is a significant contributing factor.

So I'm not sure how thinly we want to slice COVID-19 "deaths."  Someone who has been living with asthma for decades, catches COVID-19, and dies within weeks was not killed by asthma.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 19, 2020, 08:33:41 am
Number of deaths has been misrepresented in some cases.  Colorado was reporting deaths with in the same numbers as death from. I didn't dig deep but I saw in one place this caused a 23 percent drop once corrected.
The most glaring example is they classified one guy who died from alcohol poisoning as a corona death.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8324017/Colorado-health-officials-fire-saying-drunk-man-died-coronavirus.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8324017/Colorado-health-officials-fire-saying-drunk-man-died-coronavirus.html)



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 19, 2020, 09:32:32 am
The most glaring example is they classified one guy who died from alcohol poisoning as a corona death.

If he was drinking Coronas when he died...I say we let that one slide.

 :-X



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 19, 2020, 09:42:23 am
If he was drinking Coronas when he died...I say we let that one slide.

 :-X


Honest mistake  :D


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 19, 2020, 02:20:12 pm
Technically, nobody dies from AIDS.  AIDS destroys your immune system, and then you catch a disease which you are unable to fight off, and that disease kills you.  So does that mean we should categorize AIDS as a disease that causes zero deaths?  Of course not, because it is a significant contributing factor.

So I'm not sure how thinly we want to slice COVID-19 "deaths."  Someone who has been living with asthma for decades, catches COVID-19, and dies within weeks was not killed by asthma.

Please see Tenshots example of a real scenario.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 19, 2020, 02:55:07 pm
There is both underreporting and overreporting.  And anadotical examples of both. However, if you compare the overall fatality rate in the US with what it has been historically the data suggests under reporting.

BTW the USA has had more DEATHS than China had cases.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 19, 2020, 03:24:50 pm
There is both underreporting and overreporting.  And anadotical examples of both. However, if you compare the overall fatality rate in the US with what it has been historically the data suggests under reporting.

BTW the USA has had more DEATHS than China had cases.
Show me an example of under-reporting instead of just telling us about it.

Aww you think China is actually reporting anything close to accurate numbers...that's cute.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 19, 2020, 03:28:36 pm
What is everyone's opinion of the demonetization of Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment?  I found Ivette Lozano's speech pretty glaring:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh0bYr-lhLw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh0bYr-lhLw)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 19, 2020, 03:40:03 pm
What is everyone's opinion of the demonetization of Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment?  I found Ivette Lozano's speech pretty glaring:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh0bYr-lhLw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh0bYr-lhLw)

I think Trump should triple his dosage, and do it publicly, so we can all take heart from his brave example.

 >:D



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 20, 2020, 02:00:49 am
Show me an example of under-reporting instead of just telling us about it.
After Deaths At Home Spike In NYC, Officials Plan To Count Many As COVID-19 (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19)

"The announcement comes as New York City, which has been hardest-hit by the virus, saw its largest single-day toll so far from the COVID-19 pandemic, with 727 dying in a 24-hour period.

However, even those numbers failed to include many instances when first responders encountered someone who had already died at home or in other non-hospital settings. That happened 280 times on Monday, according to data from the city's Fire Department.

While not all of those deaths are necessarily caused by COVID-19, it's a sharp increase over the average 25 home deaths per day the city was experiencing before the pandemic swept the five boroughs.

Over the last two weeks, the city's fire officials said more than 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year."


For every American with COVID-19 who dies from some other acute ailment, there are likely thousands who die at home untested and are classified as unrelated deaths.  NYC was undercounting hundreds of deaths per day before this change, and not all localities have adopted this policy.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 20, 2020, 10:51:18 am
The numbers for covid are so skewed I really can't even begin to believe them either way. First off we now know that the number of infected are considerably higher based on the antibody test. We also have medical staff all over the country who have come out against being pressured to use covid as "cause of death" or people who were never even tested were labeled as covid. Like Spider pointed out ... many who did die at home might have had it as well. We have numbers true but for most reasons they are useless.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on May 20, 2020, 11:25:28 am
We were supposed to be in New Orleans this week, but with most things there still shut down because of COVID, we cancelled.  So instead of being in New Orleans, we are home this week.  Monday I went to go work out as the gyms here in Texas were finally allowed to open on Monday.  On the way, a truck ran a red light and T-Boned me in the intersection.  Totaled my car.  I had to be transported to the hospital by Fire Rescue.  Thankfully, other than a sore neck and some cuts, swelling, etc., I'm fine.   I jokingly said to the emergency room doctor that COVID was at least partially responsible for my being in the hospital since COVID is the reason I wasn't in New Orleans.  Not trying to make light of the lives lost from COVID or anything by telling that story or anything like that.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 20, 2020, 11:36:16 am
We were supposed to be in New Orleans this week, but with most things there still shut down because of COVID, we cancelled.  So instead of being in New Orleans, we are home this week.  Monday I went to go work out as the gyms here in Texas were finally allowed to open on Monday.  On the way, a truck ran a red light and T-Boned me in the intersection.  Totaled my car.  I had to be transported to the hospital by Fire Rescue.  Thankfully, other than a sore neck and some cuts, swelling, etc., I'm fine.   I jokingly said to the emergency room doctor that COVID was at least partially responsible for my being in the hospital since COVID is the reason I wasn't in New Orleans.  Not trying to make light of the lives lost from COVID or anything by telling that story or anything like that.   
Glad you're okay, I got T-Boned once it sucks.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 20, 2020, 11:53:24 am
the easiest and best way to get a rough count of total COVID-19 deaths is to do it statistically ..

look at the average daily deaths for his time period per capita and compare it to that number for a non COVID year and the difference are the deaths attributable directly (cause of being sick) or indirectly (because being sick made you lose your job that made you lose your health insurance that made you not get that operation you needed)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 20, 2020, 12:50:01 pm
the easiest and best way to get a rough count of total COVID-19 deaths is to do it statistically ..

look at the average daily deaths for his time period per capita and compare it to that number for a non COVID year and the difference are the deaths attributable directly (cause of being sick) or indirectly (because being sick made you lose your job that made you lose your health insurance that made you not get that operation you needed)

Agreed.  Based on those numbers Covid is being under reported.

And there is political pressure in both directions regarding the numbers with some attempting to inflate the numbers and other minimize them. 

But even if the numbers in the USA are over reported by 20% and every other country in the world is under reporting by 20%.  The USA still has the highest death toll and number of infected. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: fyo on May 20, 2020, 02:01:28 pm
the easiest and best way to get a rough count of total COVID-19 deaths is to do it statistically ..

look at the average daily deaths for his time period per capita and compare it to that number for a non COVID year and the difference are the deaths attributable directly (cause of being sick) or indirectly (because being sick made you lose your job that made you lose your health insurance that made you not get that operation you needed)

That's a really bad way. First of all, average deaths fluctuates write a lot year to year. Secondly, the method assumes that "all else is equal", but it isn't. As a society, we are behaving VERY differently from a normal year and to assume this has only a marginal effect on death rates is naive at best.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 20, 2020, 02:56:57 pm
That's a really bad way. First of all, average deaths fluctuates write a lot year to year. Secondly, the method assumes that "all else is equal", but it isn't. As a society, we are behaving VERY differently from a normal year and to assume this has only a marginal effect on death rates is naive at best.

True there are flaws to this method.  Some are offsetting.  Less drunk drivers but more speeding.  But does give a rough estimate.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 20, 2020, 03:05:30 pm
That's a really bad way. First of all, average deaths fluctuates write a lot year to year. Secondly, the method assumes that "all else is equal", but it isn't. As a society, we are behaving VERY differently from a normal year and to assume this has only a marginal effect on death rates is naive at best.

why are we behaving very differently ? .. behavior changes due to covid may not result in covid deaths but for sure would account for covid deaths in the 2nd degree.  .. All things equal, it'll give you a ballpark estimate .. and really .. why do you need something more accurate than that ? At this point you should be concerned with overall impact  on society from covid .. when talking about generalities .. and not specific cases.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 20, 2020, 03:40:19 pm
why are we behaving very differently ? .. behavior changes due to covid may not result in covid deaths but for sure would account for covid deaths in the 2nd degree.  .. All things equal, it'll give you a ballpark estimate .. and really .. why do you need something more accurate than that ? At this point you should be concerned with overall impact  on society from covid .. when talking about generalities .. and not specific cases.

In one way it is relevant.  If there is a spike in non-covid deaths that is attributable to the shut down not the disease nor the disease impact on hospitals.  E.g suicides because of job loss than those deaths should be tallied as reasons to end the shut down as the shutdown is deadly too.  I doubt there is anyway the shutdown is killing more than it is saving, but that is why it is relevant how someone died.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 20, 2020, 03:46:41 pm
Thankfully, other than a sore neck and some cuts, swelling, etc., I'm fine. 

Glad to hear that you're OK... People are driving like crazy out there lately, and I am including myself in that assessment. I'm not running reds and injuring perfectly good Dolphins fans, but my speeding has gotten a wee bit excessive.   >:D



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 20, 2020, 05:32:53 pm
Glad you're ok Dolphster!

Honestly I am about over the whole thing. Larry the Cable guy asked a great question. If masks work why did we let criminals out of jail instead of giving them masks? The whole thing is stupid. We have so many conflicting issues.

The same people who say to save illegals because they are just trying to save their family are locking up or fining barbers for "trying to save their family". People have been arrested for not wearing masks by people not wearing masks. I can't stand within 6' of you but I have to be 50' away if you and I are in separate boats. I can have 10 total strangers on my boat and so can you.

For me my life really hasn't changed and I know that's a huge part of the cynicism. We are still working and mingling everyday with no masks. Stopped into a 7-11 on the way home with about 12 people all walking about without masks. The CDC just announced that the virus “does not spread easily” from "touching surfaces or objects". We are also finding out more each day that most of us are safe from dying even if we get it.  I swear if we keep going this way one day soon we will be thinking this whole thing was orchestrated by Orson Welles.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: masterfins on May 20, 2020, 05:34:29 pm
In one way it is relevant.  If there is a spike in non-covid deaths that is attributable to the shut down not the disease nor the disease impact on hospitals.  E.g suicides because of job loss than those deaths should be tallied as reasons to end the shut down as the shutdown is deadly too.  I doubt there is anyway the shutdown is killing more than it is saving, but that is why it is relevant how someone died.

There are plenty of deaths to blame on Dictator Cuomo and the Media Frenzy, not on Covid.  Cuomo sent Covid positive people back to nursing homes for god's sake.  He stole ventilators from upstate hospitals for NYC, which were never used.  He has prevented many needed surgeries which has caused life threating issues, and deaths, for many NYS residents.  The media, and many people, can't see past their hatred for Trump to realize there is a point where continuing the shut down has unintended consequences that lead to death.  If the shutdown ends and you don't believe it should, well there is nothing to say you can't continue to isolate yourself.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 20, 2020, 08:49:47 pm
There are plenty of deaths to blame on Dictator Cuomo and the Media Frenzy, not on Covid.  Cuomo sent Covid positive people back to nursing homes for god's sake.  He stole ventilators from upstate hospitals for NYC, which were never used.  He has prevented many needed surgeries which has caused life threating issues, and deaths, for many NYS residents.  The media, and many people, can't see past their hatred for Trump to realize there is a point where continuing the shut down has unintended consequences that lead to death.  If the shutdown ends and you don't believe it should, well there is nothing to say you can't continue to isolate yourself.

I didn’t support the shutdown.  It is a blunt and ineffective way to manage the situation.  The proper way to manage the situation through extensive testing and contact tracing.  Extensive testing and isolation of those who test positive is more effective than very limited testing and social distancing with much less disruption.  But it requires significant testing early on before there is a widespread outbreak.  Unfortunately the US squandered that opportunity.  But reopening early is the worst of all options as we won’t reverse the economic harm of the shutdown but will reverse the limited effect of flattening the curve.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 21, 2020, 03:20:53 am
If masks work why did we let criminals out of jail instead of giving them masks?
If washing your hands works, why did we let criminals out of jail instead of giving them hand soap?
If seat belts work, how are people still dying in car accidents?

Come on, man.  That is an absurdly reductive question.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 21, 2020, 03:28:07 am
If the shutdown ends and you don't believe it should, well there is nothing to say you can't continue to isolate yourself.
If the shutdown ends and you work in an affected sector, you went from "receiving unemployment to stay home and avoid getting sick" to "choosing between being able to pay the rent and exposing yourself to CV-19."  That is a huge factor in whether people can continue to isolate themselves.

Most of the protestors you see waving guns around to try to intimidate lawmakers into reopening are people who were still receiving paychecks and viewed this shutdown as an annoyance that prevented them from getting their hair done or going to the golf course.  They weren't the people who were actually at risk (e.g. nail salon employees).

It's like how anyone you see objecting to wearing a mask is a tell: this person has not yet had anyone close to them get seriously sick.  If your aunt died to CV-19, you're probably not going to complain about having to wear a mask to enter Target.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 08:46:19 am
If washing your hands works, why did we let criminals out of jail instead of giving them hand soap?
If seat belts work, how are people still dying in car accidents?

Come on, man.  That is an absurdly reductive question.
LOL... if you had a point in there I don't get it. Seat belts have never been about protecting you in all situations. Sometimes, though rare, they actually hinder people in an accident. Many doctors have said a healthy person wearing a mask is hurting them in the long run.

Are you really saying it makes sense to you to arrest people for going to the gym while letting sexual predators out of jail? hahaha ... I guess for you it makes sense to let them out so we have plenty of room for all these Karens and Chads.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 21, 2020, 08:51:09 am
Are you really saying it makes sense to you to arrest people for going to the gym while letting sexual predators out of jail? hahaha ... I guess for you it makes sense to let them out so we have plenty of room for all these Karens and Chads. 

How sure are you that Chad ISN'T a sexual predator? Honestly, I never trusted that fucker...




Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 08:57:06 am
How sure are you that Chad ISN'T a sexual predator? Honestly, I never trusted that fucker...

Hahaha ... In today's cancel culture I'm sure he catcalled some woman or became physical and went for a hug without asking along the way so you might be right.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 09:02:02 am
(https://scontent-mia3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/98309003_3274041739295883_8236011419745648640_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=9Bafkh4CnXoAX_NxhFB&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=38b1e47810ab96fcd8ee95f496f01c4e&oe=5EEC42B9)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 21, 2020, 09:05:49 am
Are you really saying it makes sense to you to arrest people for going to the gym while letting sexual predators out of jail? hahaha ... I guess for you it makes sense to let them out so we have plenty of room for all these Karens and Chads.  

They aren’t letting sexual predators or violent criminals go free.  Some low level criminal are getting early release, but mostly it is folks who otherwise would be eligible for bail are not required to post bail.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 21, 2020, 09:10:50 am
They aren’t letting sexual predators or violent criminals go free.  Some low level criminal are getting early release, but mostly it is folks who otherwise would be eligible for bail are not required to post bail.

Bail should be done away with entirely anyways .. it's a way for rich people to stay out of jail for serious offenses and poor people to stay in jail for minor ones


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 09:20:28 am
They aren’t letting sexual predators or violent criminals go free.  Some low level criminal are getting early release, but mostly it is folks who otherwise would be eligible for bail are not required to post bail.
That is not true. It's been happening in both California and New York among others.

Sex offenders are among inmates released due to coronavirus pandemic, NY jail says
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241618006.html


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: stinkfish on May 21, 2020, 09:28:14 am
They aren’t letting sexual predators or violent criminals go free.  Some low level criminal are getting early release, but mostly it is folks who otherwise would be eligible for bail are not required to post bail.
Hoodie, Have you seen what's been going on in Dorchester over the past few days? Direct result of letting people out.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 21, 2020, 09:34:35 am
Bail should be done away with entirely anyways .. it's a way for rich people to stay out of jail for serious offenses and poor people to stay in jail for minor ones
You're comparing most of the people arrested to a very small percentage of people that are arrested.  People get arrested, they pay.  Rich people can pay it, poor people can't.  Moral of the story, don't get arrested.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 21, 2020, 09:35:29 am
People get arrested, they pay.  Rich people can pay it, poor people can't.  Moral of the story, don't get arrested. 

you say potato .. i say equal protection under the law


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 10:11:55 am
Rich people almost always have an advantage in life. I'm not sure how we could stop it. If you deny bail then poor people with collateral and middle class would also be punished. Basically the only people not being punished would be the poorest which is like 10% of our country.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 21, 2020, 10:14:56 am
People get arrested, they pay.  Rich people can pay it, poor people can't.  Moral of the story, don't get arrested. 

Moral of the story...be rich.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 21, 2020, 10:47:50 am
Rich people almost always have an advantage in life. I'm not sure how we could stop it. If you deny bail then poor people with collateral and middle class would also be punished. Basically the only people not being punished would be the poorest which is like 10% of our country.

the way to fix it is simple .. it should be binary .. if you've committed a crime so bad and you present a danger to the community  or a flight risk .. then you shouldn't get bail .. if you haven't then you shouldn't be in jail before you're convicted of a crime .. cause you're innocent until then


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 21, 2020, 01:30:58 pm
That is not true. It's been happening in both California and New York among others.

Sex offenders are among inmates released due to coronavirus pandemic, NY jail says
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241618006.html

While technically true, headline is misleading.  They severed their time for the sexual offense and were in jail for minor parole violations. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 01:38:35 pm
While technically true, headline is misleading.  They severed their time for the sexual offense and were in jail for minor parole violations.  
What part of this sounds like it should be ok to release let alone release early?

None of the released Monroe County inmates had “flu-like symptoms,” the sheriff’s office said.

Eight of the inmates were registered sex offenders, 12 were “transient population,” 10 were released with electronic monitoring devices, and one was taken to a hospital for a mental health evaluation.

Some inmates, including four registered sex offenders, are staying at a Holiday Inn Express, WIVB4 reported. Three of the inmates are “level 3 sex offenders” and are considered most likely to re-offend, according to the outlet. The three inmates were reportedly convicted for “the rape of minors.”


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 21, 2020, 01:55:39 pm
Except all of them had been released once before and were back in jail on parole violations.  If you are are arguing that statutory rape ought be a life sentence then that is a different issue or for that matter if you feel a parole violation should be a life sentence.  But these folks were in jail for parole violations.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 21, 2020, 01:58:13 pm
Except all of them had been released once before and were back in jail on parole violations.  If you are are arguing that statutory rape ought be a life sentence then that is a different issue or for that matter if you feel a parole violation should be a life sentence.  But these folks were in jail for parole violations.

You've now explained it to him twice...bet you a dollar he still comes back arguing about sex offenders.

Cue CF's diversionary commentary in 3...2...1...



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 21, 2020, 02:02:17 pm
You've now explained it to him twice...bet you a dollar he still comes back arguing about sex offenders.

Cue CF's diversionary commentary in 3...2...1...



Anything to divert attention from the fact that had we tested aggressively early on most of this could have avoided but a serious lack of leadership in the whitehouse prevented that.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 02:35:03 pm
I'm not diverting anything. Honestly I couldn't give a rats ass to what you believe and in fact would be in shock if you ever changed your mind about anything.  All I know is what you're saying is not in the article. Show me where it says what you say otherwise it seems like you are CNN making up facts to fit your narrative.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 21, 2020, 02:43:39 pm
I'm not diverting anything. Honestly I couldn't give a rats ass to what you believe and in fact would be in shock if you ever changed your mind about anything.  All I know is what you're saying is not in the article. Show me where it says what you say otherwise it seems like you are CNN making up facts to fit your narrative.

If you click on the link in the story to the original source it is in there.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 02:55:35 pm
If you click on the link in the story to the original source it is in there.
Still not seeing it.  The article seems to be written based off the official memo from the Sheriff's Dept which doesn't give any more information. New York wasn't the only place to do it anyway.

Here is another from California.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/us/sex-offenders-released-early-california/index.html

 In an unusual public statement last week, Todd Spitzer, Orange County District Attorney, issued a warning to the community about seven "high risk" sex offenders released from jail before serving their full sentences, and blasted a local county commissioner who approved the release orders.
While the DA's public warning to the community did not indicate the reason for the release of the seven named sex offenders, a spokesperson for Spitzer told CNN their understanding from the court is that commissioner Joseph Dane authorized the early releases over concerns crowded jails could serve as incubators for the spread of the deadly coronavirus.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 21, 2020, 03:58:38 pm

^^^ um...did you just point someone to a CNN link mere minutes after using CNN as your representation of fake news?

You, sir, have an interesting way of applying logic...or dissolving it in a pool of Faux News' Goofy Juice, anyway...

 >:D



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 21, 2020, 05:03:55 pm
LOL ... I chose the link that most resembled my audience. Had I used FOX then it would have most certainly been disregarded by the narrow minded.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: masterfins on May 21, 2020, 09:58:34 pm
If the shutdown ends and you work in an affected sector, you went from "receiving unemployment to stay home and avoid getting sick" to "choosing between being able to pay the rent and exposing yourself to CV-19."  That is a huge factor in whether people can continue to isolate themselves.

Most of the protestors you see waving guns around to try to intimidate lawmakers into reopening are people who were still receiving paychecks and viewed this shutdown as an annoyance that prevented them from getting their hair done or going to the golf course.  They weren't the people who were actually at risk (e.g. nail salon employees).

It's like how anyone you see objecting to wearing a mask is a tell: this person has not yet had anyone close to them get seriously sick.  If your aunt died to CV-19, you're probably not going to complain about having to wear a mask to enter Target.

Just a few points:

1) Exceptions could be made for people NOT returning to work if they are in a high risk category, or care from someone that is.
2) Since this shutdown has started we have had probably the lowest wage earners (cashiers at grocery stores, Walmart, Lowes, etc.) who deal with dozens if not hundreds of people everyday, yet I have yet to hear of a major outbreak tied to a grocery store.  So people that work in offices and only interact with many fewer people can certainly go back to work while wearing their mask, and having their hand sanitizer at the ready if they feel they need it.
3) I don't support anyone waving guns around trying to intimidate people, but I found it utterly stupid that people can't go golfing (where they aren't even close to others) , yet it's okay for people who are standing on top of each other in lines at stores.  Similarly it's easy to disinfected a work area at a hair salon between customers, and is much less risky that going to the convenience store to get gas.
4) Sorry but I don't believe wearing a cloth mask is going to keep me from getting The Corona if the person in line in front of me has it, it just gives people a false sense of security.  I'll wear a mask in crowded stores because it makes other people feel better, but I know it's just a placebo.  If you think I'm wrong why have doctors or nurses caught The Corona from patients when they wear 10x more protective gear?
5) Most importantly the government, or rather myself as a taxpayer, can't afford to continue to pay unemployment to millions of people for the next two years waiting for a vaccine to come that may not even be 50% effective.  Not to mention it's a shrinking tax base because many businesses that are shutdown are soon going to be permanently out of business.
6) If we continue down the path we are on for two years then the people with guns will be using them, instead of threatening to use them.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 22, 2020, 04:30:54 am
Masterfin

1. But they aren’t.

2. Then you have not been paying attention because there have been many.

3. Difference between golf and grocery stores is if we shut down all the grocery stores people would starve.  Golf is a luxury.

4. You wearing a mask does very little to prevent you from getting the disease.  It however, is very effective at preventing you from giving it to someone else.  So the if the person behind you has covid your mask is largely irrelevant, but their mask reduces the chance of getting infected greatly. 

5.  Yes we can.  The “war” on covid-19 is less expensive than the war on Iraqi was. Money wasn’t an object then.  The money exists, the question is the priorities.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Pappy13 on May 22, 2020, 08:15:30 am
Masterfin

1. But they aren’t.

2. Then you have not been paying attention because there have been many.

3. Difference between golf and grocery stores is if we shut down all the grocery stores people would starve.  Golf is a luxury.

4. You wearing a mask does very little to prevent you from getting the disease.  It however, is very effective at preventing you from giving it to someone else.  So the if the person behind you has covid your mask is largely irrelevant, but their mask reduces the chance of getting infected greatly. 

5.  Yes we can.  The “war” on covid-19 is less expensive than the war on Iraqi was. Money wasn’t an object then.  The money exists, the question is the priorities.
Don't bother. Anyone this uninformed isn't interested in being informed.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 22, 2020, 02:53:40 pm
Hoodie captured the exact response I was going to give to masterfins.  So I'll expand just a bit on the "we can't afford it" bit:

No politician in the history of this country has ever said, "This war is the moral and just course of action to take, but we don't have enough money so we're not going to do it."  It is simply not even considered a factor.  Nobody said, "I think it's a good idea to invade Afghanistan to get Bin Laden, but the deficit is too high so I'm voting against it."

If we cannot spend money to keep our own people from starving and/or being thrown out on the street during a global health crisis, why do we even print our own money?  The idea that "we don't have enough money to pay people to stay home" is a choice, and I'm willing to bet that virtually none of the people who say we can't afford to pay people to stay home were saying that we can't afford to cut taxes 3 years ago.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 22, 2020, 03:17:54 pm
Hoodie captured the exact response I was going to give to masterfins.  So I'll expand just a bit on the "we can't afford it" bit:

No politician in the history of this country has ever said, "This war is the moral and just course of action to take, but we don't have enough money so we're not going to do it."  It is simply not even considered a factor.  Nobody said, "I think it's a good idea to invade Afghanistan to get Bin Laden, but the deficit is too high so I'm voting against it."

If we cannot spend money to keep our own people from starving and/or being thrown out on the street during a global health crisis, why do we even print our own money?  The idea that "we don't have enough money to pay people to stay home" is a choice, and I'm willing to bet that virtually none of the people who say we can't afford to pay people to stay home were saying that we can't afford to cut taxes 3 years ago.

We could give ever person in the country 2k monthly over the next year to help with bills and we'd be totally fine. The problem is that then the poor people wouldn't be so willing to go work for starvation wages and the billionaire class can't be having that .. so they tell their employees (congress) to not do that.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 22, 2020, 05:16:17 pm
Not that this has been on every news station in the country but I finally got in to get my hair cut and my girl was stressed out. They have been open the last two weeks and she can't get anyone else to come in as they are making more on unemployment. She's been working alone when normally they keep 3 and sometimes more on hand.

One of the negatives to this covid thing is we see how easy it is for people to not work as long as they can get benefits. This only reinforces the Republican idea for me that its better to help get people to work than it is to help them get by without having to work.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 22, 2020, 05:58:12 pm
Not that this has been on every news station in the country but I finally got in to get my hair cut and my girl was stressed out. They have been open the last two weeks and she can't get anyone else to come in as they are making more on unemployment. She's been working alone when normally they keep 3 and sometimes more on hand.

One of the negatives to this covid thing is we see how easy it is for people to not work as long as they can get benefits. This only reinforces the Republican idea for me that its better to help get people to work than it is to help them get by without having to work.

That is an extreme over-simplification and extrapolation.

Because a person would choose to avoid close contact with others (and you are going to be in extremely close contact to cut someone’s hair) during. a pandemic AND schools are shut down so they have no childcare does not translate to a safety net for society encourages laziness.

 The job of cutting someone’s hair in May of 2020 is a vastly more dangerous job than it was in November of 2019.  True, some of these people would risk death if not doing so meant starvation and homelessness.

  Your conclusion fails to take into account both the risk the job now entails and the lack of childcare.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 22, 2020, 06:29:50 pm
One of the negatives to this covid thing is we see how easy it is for people to not work as long as they can get benefits. This only reinforces the Republican idea for me that its better to help get people to work than it is to help them get by without having to work.

That's exactly why the Republican idea is so insidious. "see those people over there? .. they're getting something you aren't, they're your real enemy .. not the people in charge of the entire system"  It's sad that $600 a week in unemployment is more attractive than working a full time job .. maybe that job should offer higher wages so that the absolute basic minimum the government is offering (which is barely above poverty) isn't more attractive


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 22, 2020, 06:40:31 pm
Not that this has been on every news station in the country but I finally got in to get my hair cut and my girl was stressed out. They have been open the last two weeks and she can't get anyone else to come in as they are making more on unemployment. She's been working alone when normally they keep 3 and sometimes more on hand.
Good!  They are staying home and not catching COVID-19!  Ideally, your barber should be staying home too.

Quote
One of the negatives to this covid thing is we see how easy it is for people to not work as long as they can get benefits. This only reinforces the Republican idea for me that its better to help get people to work than it is to help them get by without having to work.
This also reinforces the Republican idea of "We don't care how dangerous it is, we just want you out there working so we can make more money off you, and your sickness isn't our problem."
Unless the GOP has unveiled a plan for universal healthcare while I wasn't looking?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 22, 2020, 07:28:24 pm
I am calling BULLSHIT on CF’s entire story.

If you are laid off, and your employer offers you your job back and you decline it, you lose your benefits.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 22, 2020, 08:35:49 pm
Based on the reporting I've seen, getting unemployment in FL is nearly impossible anyway (by design, thanks to Rick Scott).
But I'm sure there are many FL residents on this board who can speak to this with more authority than I can.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 24, 2020, 12:46:12 pm
The website is incredibly difficult to maneuver by design at regular times and has been crashing during the pandemic. I had an employer a few years ago that signed up for a program that supplemented my paycheck during a slowdown that kept me from being laid off.

Also,  CF is correct. It has been reported in several sources in Orlando that some employers have been told by former employees that they are making more on unemployment right now than their service industry jobs. The website doesn't know they were contacted about their former job. If I recall this is self reported information and all someone has to do is report applying for jobs they don't get.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on May 24, 2020, 12:49:45 pm
That's exactly why the Republican idea is so insidious. "see those people over there? .. they're getting something you aren't, they're your real enemy .. not the people in charge of the entire system"  It's sad that $600 a week in unemployment is more attractive than working a full time job .. maybe that job should offer higher wages so that the absolute basic minimum the government is offering (which is barely above poverty) isn't more attractive

By some reports I have seen people are getting up to $800 per week. There are a lot of jobs that don't pay that in Orlando and across the country.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 24, 2020, 01:10:32 pm
The website is incredibly difficult to maneuver by design at regular times and has been crashing during the pandemic. I had an employer a few years ago that signed up for a program that supplemented my paycheck during a slowdown that kept me from being laid off.

Also,  CF is correct. It has been reported in several sources in Orlando that some employers have been told by former employees that they are making more on unemployment right now than their service industry jobs. The website doesn't know they were contacted about their former job. If I recall this is self reported information and all someone has to do is report applying for jobs they don't get.

In Mass and CT the employer tells the state they offered the employee to comeback and the employee declined and benefits end.  I can’t believe FL doesn’t have a system for employers to report the same. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 24, 2020, 11:00:53 pm
Even in pinko commie CA, your employer has to verify that you are eligible for unemployment benefits.  I find it extremely difficult to believe that this is not the case in FL.

It has been reported in several sources in Orlando that some employers have been told by former employees that they are making more on unemployment right now than their service industry jobs.
I still don't understand why this is a "problem."  We should want as many people staying home and not working as possible, so if you have been laid off (because you have been determined not to work in an "essential business"), incentivizing you to stay home is a good thing.  (And obviously, we should be taking care of the businesses as well, to make sure they don't go under.)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 26, 2020, 01:38:58 pm
In Mass and CT the employer tells the state they offered the employee to comeback and the employee declined and benefits end.  I can’t believe FL doesn’t have a system for employers to report the same.  
That's how it normally works but under the pandemic a lot of the rules were relaxed. For instance ... normally you have to prove you are actively looking for work but that requirement was suspended as well.

You people that think you should still be staying home should stay home. It's not fair in any universe for others to be punished because you are scared.  The latest CDC estimates 35% of the population who gets it doesn't even know they ever have it and more importantly ...  less than 0.4% of the population will die even if they get it. The government has scared the hell out of some of you. I never would feel good about forcing people to stop living just because I'm high risk.  



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 26, 2020, 02:29:37 pm

You people that think you should still be staying home should stay home. It's not fair in any universe for others to be punished because you are scared.  


Who the fuck is being punished? 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on May 26, 2020, 02:37:05 pm
Who the fuck is being punished? 

CF is... 

Sorry, Hoodie, but you missed last week's Deep State meeting, where we voted to punish CF for his role in the COVID crisis.




Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 26, 2020, 02:39:05 pm
Who the fuck is being punished?  
The tons of people losing their businesses and jobs. For instance ... we lost one of the most popular of our local mom and pop establishments.

BTW ... how stupid has the covid rules been? they certainly aren't practical.  The lady who cuts my hair didn't work for 6 weeks because it was dangerous but my chiropractor and massage therapist were fine to work on me. Couldn't go to the local thrift store but could pack into any Home Depots, Wal Marts and Publixes.  Which reminds me  .. I see a ton of elderly and minorities when I'm out shopping but somehow we can't vote in public over the week or so that polls are open.  Nothing about these rules are for safety of anyone and most of us are over it.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 26, 2020, 02:46:16 pm
The tons of people losing their businesses and jobs. For instance ... we lost one of the most popular of our local mom and pop establishments.

BTW ... how stupid has the covid rules been? they certainly aren't practical.  The lady who cuts my hair didn't work for 6 weeks because it was dangerous but my chiropractor and massage therapist were fine to work on me. Couldn't go to the local thrift store but could pack into any Home Depots, Wal Marts and Publixes.  Which reminds me  .. I see a ton of elderly and minorities when I'm out shopping but somehow we can't vote in public over the week or so that polls are open.  Nothing about these rules are for safety of anyone and most of us are over it.

I agree massage therapist should not have been allowed to remain open.  (Insert joke about Bob Kraft) Thrift stores incoming merchandise would pose a significantly higher risk than new goods of Walmart.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 26, 2020, 05:44:21 pm
You people that think you should still be staying home should stay home. It's not fair in any universe for others to be punished because you are scared.
And in exchange, all the fake tough guys who Aren’t Scared Of The Flu will have to consent in writing that they wish not to be treated (with all the legal force of a Do Not Resuscitate order) if they catch COVID-19.  They can just stay home and take some Tylenol, like the bold and rugged freedom-lovers they are, and if it’s their time then that’s that.   Deal?

The lady who cuts my hair didn't work for 6 weeks because it was dangerous but my chiropractor and massage therapist were fine to work on me.
Physical therapists help people with chronic pain.  Barbers make your hair look nice.




Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on May 27, 2020, 08:20:54 am
And in exchange, all the fake tough guys who Aren’t Scared Of The Flu will have to consent in writing that they wish not to be treated (with all the legal force of a Do Not Resuscitate order) if they catch COVID-19.  They can just stay home and take some Tylenol, like the bold and rugged freedom-lovers they are, and if it’s their time then that’s that.   Deal?
Physical therapists help people with chronic pain.  Barbers make your hair look nice.




I've had mixed feelings about all of it.  But since you actually had COVID, I would say that your opinion carries more weight than that of someone like me who didn't have to deal with it.  Sometimes there is a delicate line between what is "good for the people" as a whole, and personal freedoms/civil liberties.   


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 27, 2020, 04:13:41 pm
But since you actually had COVID, I would say that your opinion carries more weight than that of someone like me who didn't have to deal with it. 

Spiders opinion doesn’t carry more weight than you because he had the disease.

But Dr. Fauci’s opinion carries significantly more weight than others on the appropriate response to a pandemic because he is an expert. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 28, 2020, 01:51:30 pm
And in exchange, all the fake tough guys who Aren’t Scared Of The Flu will have to consent in writing that they wish not to be treated (with all the legal force of a Do Not Resuscitate order) if they catch COVID-19.  They can just stay home and take some Tylenol, like the bold and rugged freedom-lovers they are, and if it’s their time then that’s that.   Deal?
That's a vindictive statement and not rationale. no one is saying covid doesn't exist nor that it doesn't suck to have it. What they are saying is that they are willing to take their chances just like most of the country does with the flu. All of us know we can die from the flu but most choose to ignore the flu vaccine.

Physical therapists help people with chronic pain.  Barbers make your hair look nice.
They are both still in your face.


The funniest thing being ignored is most of the way through this Publix employees didn't wear masks and many of the essential businesses like construction and convenience stores didn't either and there were no major outbreaks. A few employees here or there but nothing major.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 28, 2020, 02:47:24 pm
That's a vindictive statement and not rationale. no one is saying covid doesn't exist nor that it doesn't suck to have it. What they are saying is that they are willing to take their chances just like most of the country does with the flu.

The problem with covid is that if you get sick .. you are more likely than not to infect others .. So their "chances" are not just their chances.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 28, 2020, 10:31:42 pm
That's a vindictive statement and not rationale.
Why is it vindictive?  It's personal accountability.  If you want to insist on your right to put yourself at risk because you aren't scared, then fine, but you DON'T have the right to put healthcare workers at risk unnecessarily with your reckless choices.  So if you catch COVID-19, you can continue to not be scared in your own home.

Quote
They are both still in your face.
The question is not whether physical therapists are as close to their patients as barbers are to their customers.  The question is whether people experiencing chronic pain need immediate service more than people whose hair is longer than they would like.  The answer to that question is "Yes."

I mean, there are at least as many people in a large supermarket as there are in a bowling alley.  Do you also have a tough time understanding why grocery stores remained open while bowling alleys were closed?

Quote
The funniest thing being ignored is most of the way through this Publix employees didn't wear masks and many of the essential businesses like construction and convenience stores didn't either and there were no major outbreaks.
Do you support or oppose a legal mandate on masks for essential workers (like grocery store employees)?

Also, I'd hold off on your Mission Accomplished-style declaration that "There were no major outbreaks."  That might turn out to be right up there with "This will be over by Easter" or "The heat will make corona go away."  Unless you'd care to offer a guess on where FL's numbers will be a month from now?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 29, 2020, 08:18:06 am
OK ... I have to ask all the people trying to force me to wear a mask ... what now? Do we believe local officials or WHO?

March 31 - (CNN)World Health Organization officials Monday said they still recommend people not wear face masks unless they are sick with Covid-19 or caring for someone who is sick.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html



Today - New York Post - The World Health Organization is recommending healthy people, including those who don’t exhibit COVID-19 symptoms, only wear masks when taking care of someone infected with the contagion, a sharp contrast from the advice given by American public health officials who recommend everyone wear a mask in public.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/28/healthy-people-should-wear-masks-only-if-caring-for-coronavirus-patients-who-says/


Interesting story today here in Seminole County. The Seminole County Tax Collector went down to check and see if he has antibodies but found out he in fact currently has Covid 19. He has no symptoms and they tested him twice to be sure. He is now on 14 day isolation.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dolphster on May 29, 2020, 10:09:45 am
Spiders opinion doesn’t carry more weight than you because he had the disease.

But Dr. Fauci’s opinion carries significantly more weight than others on the appropriate response to a pandemic because he is an expert. 

I probably chose my words poorly when I said that Spider's opinion carried more weight than me because he had COVID.  I should have said that having had COVID gives him a different perspective to view the situation from than me.   

And I agree with you that Dr. Fauci's opinions carries more weight than "non-experts".   The problem is that there seems to be far from a consensus even amongst medical experts in the field.   In my opinion (emphasis on "opinion"), there are just so many unknowns about COVID that the WHO, CDC, etc. keep moving around somewhat in their guidance.  I do know that I would not want to be the one who has to weigh appropriate reaction in terms of legal rulings and restrictions versus damage to the economy, small businesses, etc.   How many potential deaths are "acceptable" in order to avoid economic collapse?  Beats me.  And I'm glad that I'm not in a position of authority to make such determinations. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 29, 2020, 11:30:18 am
There's not even a consensus to medicines. Hydroxychloroquine has been safely administered forever but since Trump backed it the med has become a political tool. Not too mention what "they" did to the ibuprofen industries by saying it was very dangerous for covid users. Turns out it doesn't affect it. In fact blood pressure meds were supposed to be bad but now they are good. Who can keep up with this crap?



Just came out today ...

More than 120 top scientists criticise a series of FLAWS in study that found Trump-backed hydroxychloroquine drug raised the risk of death to Covid-19 patients and halted global trials
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8368649/Fury-study-halted-global-Covid-19-trials-letter-questions-methods.html


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 29, 2020, 11:50:50 am
There's not even a consensus to medicines. Hydroxychloroquine has been safely administered forever but since Trump backed it the med has become a political tool. Not too mention what "they" did to the ibuprofen industries by saying it was very dangerous for covid users. Turns out it doesn't affect it. In fact blood pressure meds were supposed to be bad but now they are good. Who can keep up with this crap?



Just came out today ...

More than 120 top scientists criticise a series of FLAWS in study that found Trump-backed hydroxychloroquine drug raised the risk of death to Covid-19 patients and halted global trials
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8368649/Fury-study-halted-global-Covid-19-trials-letter-questions-methods.html

Take this for what it's worth, but there is a doctor on one of the radio programs I listen to in the morning.  He's big on using hydroxychloroquine in conjunction with z-pack and vitamin D.  He explained how it works by coating the protein "spikes" on the outside of the virus.  This article explains what I'm talking about:

They ring the body of the virus like jewels in a crown, hence the name of this microbial family — coronavirus.

Biologically speaking, those spikes are critically important. They are literally the point of contact that our own vulnerable lung cells have with the virus, SARS-CoV-2. Like a key cut for a specific lock, the spike slides neatly into the matching sites of receptors found on cells that line the airways of our lungs. Once secured, this connection allows the entire ball-shaped virus to slip into the cell. Inside, it makes thousands of copies of itself. And the potentially lethal infection has begun.


https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2020/04/covid19-virus-spike-structure.html

So those spikes are coated by the medication, making it difficult if not impossible for the spikes to slide neatly into the matching sites of the receptors found on the cells, thus preventing it form spreading in the body.  What is frustrating is this is sound logic for treatment and time is of the essence, but it was being rejected and made political because people hate Trump.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on May 29, 2020, 01:22:22 pm
Take this for what it's worth, but there is a doctor on one of the radio programs I listen to in the morning.  He's big on using hydroxychloroquine in conjunction with z-pack and vitamin D.  He explained how it works by coating the protein "spikes" on the outside of the virus.  This article explains what I'm talking about:

They ring the body of the virus like jewels in a crown, hence the name of this microbial family — coronavirus.

Biologically speaking, those spikes are critically important. They are literally the point of contact that our own vulnerable lung cells have with the virus, SARS-CoV-2. Like a key cut for a specific lock, the spike slides neatly into the matching sites of receptors found on cells that line the airways of our lungs. Once secured, this connection allows the entire ball-shaped virus to slip into the cell. Inside, it makes thousands of copies of itself. And the potentially lethal infection has begun.


https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2020/04/covid19-virus-spike-structure.html

So those spikes are coated by the medication, making it difficult if not impossible for the spikes to slide neatly into the matching sites of the receptors found on the cells, thus preventing it form spreading in the body.  What is frustrating is this is sound logic for treatment and time is of the essence, but it was being rejected and made political because people hate Trump.
“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

―attributed to Mark Twain but who knows.  Many of us pick a side and only hear anything that supports our view.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 30, 2020, 02:04:35 am
Take this for what it's worth, but there is a doctor on one of the radio programs I listen to in the morning.  He's big on using hydroxychloroquine in conjunction with z-pack and vitamin D.  He explained how it works by coating the protein "spikes" on the outside of the virus.  This article explains what I'm talking about:
The article you linked (from a reputable institution with a history of sound research) has literally nothing to do with hydroxychloroquine.  Just because some random quack claims that it "coats the spikes," that doesn't make it true... nor does that tell you anything about whether it may cause other deadly side effects in COVID patients.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 30, 2020, 11:25:02 am
The article you linked (from a reputable institution with a history of sound research) has literally nothing to do with hydroxychloroquine.  Just because some random quack claims that it "coats the spikes," that doesn't make it true... nor does that tell you anything about whether it may cause other deadly side effects in COVID patients.
I used the website to explain what the purpose of the spikes were for.  The "quack* doctor, Dan Diaco, was the team physician for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2002-2009, among many other accomplishments.  He's also a board certified attorney on top of being a doctor.  But yeah, he's a quack.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on May 30, 2020, 04:13:20 pm
I used the website to explain what the purpose of the spikes were for.  The "quack* doctor, Dan Diaco, was the team physician for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2002-2009, among many other accomplishments.  He's also a board certified attorney on top of being a doctor.  But yeah, he's a quack.

wow .. a lawyer .. and a team doctor .. that must make him extra special good at viruses .. yep .. never mind the specialists who do nothing else but study viruses and don't waste time


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 30, 2020, 04:15:09 pm
wow .. a lawyer .. and a team doctor .. that must make him extra special good at viruses .. yep .. never mind the specialists who do nothing else but study viruses and don't waste time
::)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 30, 2020, 04:20:02 pm
wow .. a lawyer .. and a team doctor .. that must make him extra special good at viruses .. yep .. never mind the specialists who do nothing else but study viruses and don't waste time

That is the norm.  The right has no problem considering someone with a PhD in petroleum engineering who is employed by Exxon an expert in climate change.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 30, 2020, 04:28:12 pm
You two are being dismissive and very basic with your responses.  I don't know why I even bother.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 30, 2020, 05:43:58 pm
I used the website to explain what the purpose of the spikes were for.  The "quack* doctor, Dan Diaco, was the team physician for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2002-2009, among many other accomplishments.  He's also a board certified attorney on top of being a doctor.  But yeah, he's a quack.
Unless he also has a background in molecular biology and/or viral chemistry, a doctor that is advocating treatments based on subjects outside of his expertise is pretty much the textbook definition of a "quack."

On what basis can this doctor claim that hydroxychloroquine "coats the spikes" of SARS-CoV-2?  What part of his training and education qualifies him to make that assessment?  How has he confirmed it?

He's a quack.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 07:40:43 am
Unless he also has a background in molecular biology and/or viral chemistry, a doctor that is advocating treatments based on subjects outside of his expertise is pretty much the textbook definition of a "quack."

On what basis can this doctor claim that hydroxychloroquine "coats the spikes" of SARS-CoV-2?  What part of his training and education qualifies him to make that assessment?  How has he confirmed it?

He's a quack.


https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25658/20200512/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-zinc-triple-combo-proved-effective-coronavirus-patients-study.htm (https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25658/20200512/hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin-zinc-triple-combo-proved-effective-coronavirus-patients-study.htm)

In the study, half of 900 COVID-19 patients were given the triple-drug combo of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin. The other half were given only hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic, azithromycin.

The results of the study revealed that the patients who received the triple-drug combo had a 1.5 times greater probability of getting better from the disease. They were also more likely to eventually be discharged from the hospital compared to those who were only given the double-drug combination...

...The drug is said to interfere with the virus' ability to enter the body's cells and also blocks the virus' ability to replicate once they are already inside.


https://conservativewoman.co.uk/malaria-drug-and-zinc-the-missing-link/ (https://conservativewoman.co.uk/malaria-drug-and-zinc-the-missing-link/)


California emergency physician Dr Anthony Cardillo said during a local television interview: ‘[HCQ] really only works in conjunction with zinc. Every patient I have prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within eight to twelve hours they were basically symptom-free and so clinically I am seeing a resolution.’


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 01, 2020, 08:56:45 am
^^^^The  study don’t prove much. 

HCQ + zinc better than HCQ w/o zinc does not prove HCQ + zinc is effective or safe.  And there is absolutely no evidence HCQ w/ or w/o zinc can be use preventatively.  HCQ has serious side effects.  The drug combo might be  treatment method that outweighs the side effects or it might not, more research is needed. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on June 01, 2020, 09:42:58 am
this sounds at least encouraging ...

Is Covid-19 becoming LESS potent? Italian doctors say the coronavirus is weaker than it was during the height of the pandemic
Doctors in Italy claim the coronavirus has weakened and become a shadow of the disease that rapidly spread around the world.   

Italian medics say the infection - which has killed 370,000 worldwide - is much less lethal than it was and 'no longer clinically exists'.

Patients are showing much smaller amounts of the virus in their system, compared to samples taken during the peak of the crisis in March and April, they said.

Infections and deaths caused by Covid-19 have been falling in Italy for weeks. It was, at one point, the centre of Europe's escalating outbreak.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8376105/Is-Covid-19-really-potent.html


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 10:50:00 am
So are we forgetting all the social distancing guidelines because of protests/riots?  The media was all bent out of shape just last week for people going to the beach, but you don't hear anything about protestors packing in like sardines.  Or are protests/riots okay because the message is more important than potentially infecting thousands of people?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 01, 2020, 11:16:43 am
So are we forgetting all the social distancing guidelines because of protests/riots?  The media was all bent out of shape just last week for people going to the beach, but you don't hear anything about protestors packing in like sardines.  Or are protests/riots okay because the message is more important than potentially infecting thousands of people?

I noticed in many cases the protesters were trying to maintain social distancing, but the police were herding them together.  Also many protesters are wearing masks, none of the beach goers were. But most importantly ending the cold blood killing of civilians of cops is just as important as ending covid 19, beach trips are not.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 11:34:58 am
I noticed in many cases the protesters were trying to maintain social distancing, but the police were herding them together.  Also many protesters are wearing masks, none of the beach goers were. But most importantly ending the cold blood killing of civilians of cops is just as important as ending covid 19, beach trips are not.
Just as important huh...one killed over 100,000 people this year....one killed 31 (228 total if you include all races) people this year, most of which were warranted because the suspect had a deadly weapon...and blaming the police for grouping them together is bullshit.  I watched this live, they were grouping just fine without the police's help.  Also, I watched live as the "peaceful protest" turned into full on looting and ruined my town.  Over 40 local and national business were looted here.  Many local business ruined.  Gas stations and stores set on fire.  "Oh but at least they were wearing masks!"   ::)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on June 01, 2020, 12:03:25 pm
The good news is that in 2 weeks we will either have a shit ton of Democrats with covid which would prove conservatives wrong or they won't be and liberals will be proven wrong. Either way we should be able to end that debate.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 12:09:27 pm
Another friend's grandfather died of COVID yesterday.

About 1000 new deaths every day, but appears to be trending upwards, maybe?  1223 deaths as of most recent update.  Might be an outlier day....too early to tell.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 01, 2020, 12:37:48 pm
Just as important huh...one killed over 100,000 people this year....one killed 31 (228 total if you include all races) people this year, most of which were warranted because the suspect had a deadly weapon...and blaming the police for grouping them together is bullshit.  I watched this live, they were grouping just fine without the police's help.  Also, I watched live as the "peaceful protest" turned into full on looting and ruined my town.  Over 40 local and national business were looted here.  Many local business ruined.  Gas stations and stores set on fire.  "Oh but at least they were wearing masks!"   ::)



If you can understand why the districts revolted in the hunger games or why the colonists had a tea party in Boston then you are more than capable of understanding why the protests are overdue.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 01:11:17 pm


If you can understand why the districts revolted in the hunger games or why the colonists had a tea party in Boston then you are more than capable of understanding why the protests are overdue.
False equivalence and a pretty sad you use a fictitious story to try and make a point.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 02:16:42 pm
False equivalence

It is exact equivalence.

The Boston Tea Party was a destructive revolt against businesses, commerce, and the system in general, to stick it to a government that wasn't working on their behalf, despite being supposed to do so.  This is literally the same thing.

Riots are not OK.  But when you ignore people's other methods, it is inevitable.  Can't riot.  Hold people accountable...all that.  But recognize why it's happening.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 02:20:22 pm
So are we forgetting all the social distancing guidelines because of protests/riots?  The media was all bent out of shape just last week for people going to the beach, but you don't hear anything about protestors packing in like sardines.  Or are protests/riots okay because the message is more important than potentially infecting thousands of people?

To answer earnestly, yeah COVID is a problem, and groups of people rioting in close quarters is likely to cause a spread of this.

But to those people, I guess the message is more important.

Blaming the media is just dumb.  COVID isn't the story of the riots.  The riots are the story.  They've been covering COVID non-stop for 3 months.  You pretty much know that story.  And I have heard them address the COVID issue within the riot issue.  It's been addressed, but talking about COVID is side-stepping the more immediate danger of the riot.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 02:30:29 pm
It is exact equivalence.

The Boston Tea Party was a destructive revolt against businesses, commerce, and the system in general, to stick it to a government that wasn't working on their behalf, despite being supposed to do so.  This is literally the same thing.

Riots are not OK.  But when you ignore people's other methods, it is inevitable.  Can't riot.  Hold people accountable...all that.  But recognize why it's happening.



The Boston Tea Party was a calculated event and only affected goods from the British East India Company.  They didn't burn down Boston or hurt anyone.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/01/comparing-floyd-riots-to-boston-tea-party-insults-actual-patriots/ (https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/01/comparing-floyd-riots-to-boston-tea-party-insults-actual-patriots/)

I don't think anyone says they don't recognize why it's happening.  Everyone knows why it's happening.  What's happening is just as wrong as what happened to Greg Floyd and it needs to be condemned and not glorified.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on June 01, 2020, 02:31:47 pm

Riots are not OK.  But when you ignore people's other methods, it is inevitable.  Can't riot.  Hold people accountable...all that.  But recognize why it's happening.


Dave ... can you explain why when for the first time they have pretty much the whole country agreeing with them that this was disgusting that they decided rioting was a good idea? I mean many people went from supporting them to complaining about the rioting. The message was lost days ago.  


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 02:37:06 pm
To answer earnestly, yeah COVID is a problem, and groups of people rioting in close quarters is likely to cause a spread of this.

But to those people, I guess the message is more important.

Blaming the media is just dumb.  COVID isn't the story of the riots.  The riots are the story.  They've been covering COVID non-stop for 3 months.  You pretty much know that story.  And I have heard them address the COVID issue within the riot issue.  It's been addressed, but talking about COVID is side-stepping the more immediate danger of the riot.

I'm pointing out the hypocrisy of the liberal media and even members of this board regarding social distancing that went out the window when protests and riots occurred.  It seems protesting is more important to them.  Many more people are going to get infected because of this, and they are going to infect many more people that have no part in this.  

Not blaming the media is dumb Dave.  They've created this monster.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 02:41:21 pm
I think that there is nuance to this.

Rioting is not a good idea.  It's an inevitable outcome.  Don't get confused with me condoning rioting.  I do not.

But it does burn my ass to hear people say "this isn't the way" when Kaepnick kneeling, when NBA players wearing shirts, etc. also was "this isn't the way". 

The country all agreed that that guy getting killed was bad, yes.  But they had to burn Minneapolis to the ground before he was even arrested, several days later.  It doesn't change that those cops all stood there and watched a man get strangled to death while the crowd pleaded for his life.

And it's the same thing with Rodney King.  Had they not burned down LA, nobody would even know who he was.  This is a problem that continues to be ignored.  Rioting is not OK, but it will force change.  Because this same bullshit story is happening over and over and over again and nothing changes.

Amber Guyger killed a guy in his own house, wasn't arrested.
George Zimmerman killed a kid that he hunted down.   Wasn't arrested.
Ahmaud Arbery was hunted down and killed.  DA knew.  Nobody arrested until video leaked.

It's just OVER and OVER and OVER and OVER...  And that community has had it.  So, what they're doing is not OK, but it is absolutely inevitable because there is no other choice left.  As a society, we have done nothing to address it.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 02:50:51 pm
I'm pointing out the hypocrisy of the liberal media and even members of this board regarding social distancing that went out the window when protests and riots occurred.  It seems protesting is more important to them.

Where are you getting this? 

I don't leave my house unless I need to.  People shouldn't be getting within close-distances because they risk getting sick.  They also shouldn't be burning down buildings and fighting police.  Neither is right.  Science don't give a shit about social justice.

Yet, here we are, because they're so fed up with 100 years of bullshit that they're not interested in doing what is right anymore.  Doing what is right has continually fucked them.  Both things can be true.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Sunstroke on June 01, 2020, 04:08:57 pm
Science don't give a shit about social justice.

This should be a bumper sticker...



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 05:31:08 pm
This should be a bumper sticker...



It kind of already is...

https://www.zazzle.com/facts_dont_care_about_your_feelings_bumper_sticker-128043922933353811 (https://www.zazzle.com/facts_dont_care_about_your_feelings_bumper_sticker-128043922933353811)


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 01, 2020, 06:51:57 pm
What's happening is just as wrong as what happened to Greg Floyd


You believe vandalism is just as wrong as murder. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 01, 2020, 07:40:46 pm
You believe vandalism is just as wrong as murder. 
You do realize multiple people have died because of these riots right?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 01, 2020, 11:26:37 pm
Back to Covid, seems that deaths are trending down in general over the last 45 days.  We had a little bump but deaths have been down over the last three days to well under 1000.  I think it was like 500 yesterday.   That’s good.



Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on June 01, 2020, 11:32:12 pm
Let's get something straight, here: people protesting about their right to go infect others with a deadly contagious disease is not even remotely the same thing as people protesting about the right not to be murdered by the police.  This kind of "protests are protests bro!" take is ridiculous.

But if we're going to compare protests: why is it that a bunch of white people with guns breaking the law and putting thousands of lives at risk to gather in large numbers (and notably: shutting down state legislatures with implicit threats of violence) are met with calm silence and shrugged shoulders from law enforcement, yet other people breaking the law to vandalize and loot (after many of the shelter restrictions have been lifted) are met with tear gas, flash grenades, and rubber bullets?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on June 02, 2020, 01:49:12 pm
I'd argue that the rioting is putting more lives at risk than the armed protesters. I actually agree with the idea behind the rioters but both groups are idiots at making their message effective.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on June 02, 2020, 05:03:00 pm
Property at risk? Sure.
Lives at risk?  Absolutely not.  The total number of people who die in violent actions related to this riots will be a rounding error in the number of daily US COVID deaths.

Furthermore, while you can argue that the anti-brutality protesters are in public gatherings just like the anti-lockdown protesters, the key difference is that anti-lockdown protesters were fighting to end the safety measures in place to protect everyone. In this respect, they were EXTREMELY successful.  The number of people who die due to direct exposure during the protests (or subsequent transmission) may only number in the 3 or 4 digit range, but the number of people who die due to the early relaxation of restrictions will number in at least the tens of thousands.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Phishfan on June 02, 2020, 09:51:46 pm
People have already died in these riots. I don't recall any deaths during the idiot armed protests of the quarantine.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on June 02, 2020, 10:17:42 pm
I don't think there were any deaths due to violence during the anti-quarantine protests.  The question is how many people were infected and where those infections spread.

As best I can tell, there have been 10 deaths during the riots so far (at least one of those was shot by police who were fired in response).  At the current US average COVID fatality rate of ~5%, that means that if more than 200 people were infected during the anti-quarantine protests, that already matches the number of violent deaths from the riots.

And again: the earlier protesters were fighting AGAINST restrictions to keep people safe, many of which were lifted in response.  That makes the long-lasting effects of their protests potentially far more deadly than the riots.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 02, 2020, 11:45:48 pm
Back to Covid, seems that deaths are trending down in general over the last 45 days.  We had a little bump but deaths have been down over the last three days to well under 1000.  I think it was like 500 yesterday.   That’s good.

So much for the good news.  Back up to about 1500 today....pretty decent spike, but only one day.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tenshot13 on June 03, 2020, 07:32:57 am
https://abcnews.go.com/US/small-town-police-chief-killed-officers-cities-wounded/story?id=71017820

I guess his life doesn't matter huh.  He's just a "rounding error".


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MaineDolFan on June 03, 2020, 07:53:08 am
Back to Covid, seems that deaths are trending down in general over the last 45 days.  We had a little bump but deaths have been down over the last three days to well under 1000.  I think it was like 500 yesterday.   That’s good.

"In general" is a very important item to consider here; cases are trending up.  We still don't have a viable treatment.  What we are seeing, in our city and in conference calls in cities like our own for collaboration, is increased community spread corresponding directly with states reopening "phases."  The disease progression, typically, for symptomatic carriers has an incubation period of 14 days.  You're a data and numbers guy, follow the numbers.  In Maine, example, we had our largest single day death total ever yesterday. 

I know people don't want to talk about this but we will see spikes with the protesters.  Community spread is our single, largest villain in pandemic.  So when the "lamestream" media starts reporting on it, it's not a fallacy. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 03, 2020, 09:10:49 am
So much for the good news.  Back up to about 1500 today....pretty decent spike, but only one day.

Keep in mind today’s numbers are based on behaviors from 2 weeks ago.  It is a slow feedback loop.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 03, 2020, 11:38:54 am
Keep in mind today’s numbers are based on behaviors from 2 weeks ago.  It is a slow feedback loop.

I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on June 03, 2020, 11:47:08 am
I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?
This is a good question.

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?
I think it all depends on many factors. Some people are still fighting 60 days later while others died the day they went into the hospital.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 03, 2020, 11:52:36 am
I think it all depends on many factors. Some people are still fighting 60 days later while others died the day they went into the hospital.

I am not qualified to have a medical opinion, but I'd hypothesize that you could die from the high fever, you could die from slow respiratory failure, and you could die from whatever other condition you had that was exacerbated by general deterioration (heart attack, stroke, whatever) and that could come at any time.  I guess it can come at you lots of ways.  Maybe Hoodie is right and the data lags behind a little bit.  It makes sense.

What's weird, when looking at the daily graph, there seems to be a little mini-spike about once a week.  I wonder if that's tied to people getting out of weekends or if it's something to do with how things are reported in clusters or what.

This is graph I've been following, by the way.  It updates daily.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 03, 2020, 12:47:09 pm
I hear people say that, but is that true?

I understood that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, but not necessarily.  ...like, you could get it and be sick the next day like the regular flu, also.  ...or is that not the case?

Also, if COVID is going to kill you, does it take a long time to do it?  Do you get sick and die fast or is it a slow, methodical breakdown of the lungs?

It is not a set in stone 14 days. But because of the incubation period you didn’t see a drop in cases the day after social distancing began and you didn’t see a spike in communities the day after restrictions ease because of the lag time.  This lag time makes it too easy for people to dismiss the cause and effect of their actions.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on June 03, 2020, 05:43:07 pm
I think 14 days of lag time is probably a good indicator for number of new cases, but deaths should necessarily be further out.  Day 6-8 after symptoms start is normally when symptoms ramp up; 4 weeks seems like a better estimate of lag time for deaths.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on June 04, 2020, 05:35:02 am
I think 14 days of lag time is probably a good indicator for number of new cases, but deaths should necessarily be further out.  Day 6-8 after symptoms start is normally when symptoms ramp up; 4 weeks seems like a better estimate of lag time for deaths.

That has been the general thought for a while: after two consecutive two week Covid-19 free cycles you are potentially not only knocking out people already infected but also future infections, however...

In my City/State (Adelaide/South Australia) we had no infections for nearly two weeks, then one came out of nowhere who had returned from the UK five weeks beforehand. Weird cases like that question the two week guideline for symptoms to occur/testing positive/how contagious you are, but to date no one has come up with anything better to go by. That's the scary thing about this bug, we have thrown so many resources at it over the last six months, and still seem to know so relatively little.

We had another one pop up again from the UK via Melbourne - while they had tested negative three days earlier in Melbourne, they luckily declared they had not served the mandatory 14 day quarantine period there because of compassionate reasons (a terminally ill relative), was tested at the airport and then immediately isolated (as were all fellow passengers and flight crew who were contacted when the result was positive). For a city of 1.5 million we are doing quite well, with the only active case in quarantine (the last one I mentioned, the previous one cured) for over a month.

The Northern Territory, Western Australia are in as good as if not better shape, Tasmania is catching up after one serious outbreak in a hospital to their north. The majority of infections are not surprisingly in the more populated eastern states, New South Wales which was the source of so many seems to be getting theirs under control (at last), but Melbourne/Victoria is still having outbreaks of half a dozen to a dozen infections a day - Queensland has less, but worryingly they have a lot more unaccounted infections (suggested there are a lot more there they have not traced). Touch wood, we never had the volume of infections to threaten let alone overwhelm our hospital systems which is why we have such a (genuine) low death rate.  

Our borders in SA are still effectively shut to the rest of Australia (with exceptions for essential services, etc), but things inside are starting to open up with a little more confidence. In the space of two weeks we have gone from eight weeks of near total shutdown (apart from essential services and medical/food shops) to most shopping being open, to restaurants being open for 20 people inside, and now to most things including personal services being open for up to 80 people indoors (subject to social distancing rules of 4m2 per person space being available inside a venue, and protective measures such as cleaning, face shields, etc). The question for us will be if an outbreak/clusters start appearing, what to we close up again? (if anything). Singapore is an example of somewhere that seemed to be doing so well, and then things got out of hand again...

General air travel in Australia could be a few months off until the eastern states (most specifically Melbourne/Victoria) get their outbreaks under control, but in the global scale of things they are still relatively few and we have been extremely lucky. General international travel I think is way off, although they are already talking about a possible 'bubble' with places like New Zealand if they are also Covid-19 free.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: CF DolFan on June 05, 2020, 01:34:11 pm
The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Dave Gray on June 05, 2020, 01:55:50 pm
possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.

Possibly, but I wouldn't make that connection.

Just off the top of my head, I could see how the people who are more interested in putting themselves at risk (going out to bars, beaches, stores, etc) are probably not high-risk people....so those getting sick are less likely to die from it.

This is also good, if true.  It wouldn't mean the virus is getting weaker, but that we're introducing steps towards herd immunity through healthier people first.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Fau Teixeira on June 05, 2020, 02:27:05 pm
The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so

srsly ! .. lets hope


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 05, 2020, 03:07:12 pm
The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.  First Italy and now several other places including the US has stated that they think it is getting weaker. For everyone sake I hope so


Or that we are testing more.  If you test more people you get more cases but a lower % of them die. 


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Spider-Dan on June 05, 2020, 04:28:32 pm
The number of coronavirus cases is increasing at its fastest pace since the pandemic began but the death rate is in decline - possibly providing evidence that the virus is getting weaker.
I would like to see the stats on the number of people dying from "pneumonia" or "flu-like symptoms" before we declare the death rate to be improving.  Shifting the bodies into different categories doesn't really make a difference, IMO.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on June 17, 2020, 09:57:03 am
I would like to see the stats on the number of people dying from "pneumonia" or "flu-like symptoms" before we declare the death rate to be improving.  Shifting the bodies into different categories doesn't really make a difference, IMO.

There are a hell of a lot of under-quoted figures out there... Great Britain for a long time was only counting Covid-19 positives and deaths tested for in hospitals, when the real figures came through from nursing homes and the like their numbers exploded.


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Downunder Dolphan on June 17, 2020, 10:21:09 am
Oh, and for those interested an update on the Australian situation:

The state of Victoria is still the place of major concern with the most new cases (21 today, but most from repatriation overseas) but more importantly also some community transfer. Almost all other states has that aspect under control (three have had no new Covid-19 cases for over three weeks, and two have been completely Covid-19 free for most of that).

Things are gradually opening up here under some confidence, air travel without any quarantine between states is tentatively penciled in to happen from July 20th (some is happening already between some Covid-19 free states) , but overseas travel has basically been ruled out for the rest of the year.


Title: Is COVID Overblown?
Post by: dolphins4life on June 20, 2020, 12:16:03 pm
Here's an interesting article

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html#! (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html#!)

The author makes some great points.

If this is fact garbage who is to blame for all this stuff that's been going on for the last two months?


Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on June 20, 2020, 02:30:53 pm
The author does not make good points.  While there are a few instances of deaths being attributed to Covid that arguably should not be considered Covid 19 because of other factors.  There are also many deaths that have occurred in which the deceased was never tested because of a lack of test kits but likely died of covid based on the large number of deaths occurring compared to a “normal” day.  Almost every scientist in the field (not random scientists in other disciplines) believe the number is greatly undercounted.