The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Now is as good as any time to start this

Six teams were tied at 6-3 today

They were

Ten
Bal
LV
Mia
Ind
Cle

Now 7-3

Ten
Cle
Ind


Now 6-4

Mia
Bal

No reason to think Miami and Tua can’t bounce back. Playoffs is a legit option and considering where we were that’s awesome.  Just keep him upright. There’s a reason the Titans are 7-3. Tannehill is good enough for a deep playoff run we just messed him up. If it’s not Miami this year I hope it’s him and King Henry.

We can take the Jets in NY and Cincinnati at Home. We could upset KC at home. They aren’t invincible.  Maybe it’s a collapse but if it happens let’s learn how to avoid it next year and we should still be thinking long term.

Don't take the Jets lightly next week at all

They have been contending very well lately, just not pulling out the victories. Similar to the Chargers. If Tua has another bad game, don't be surprised if the Jets pull this one out.

Why can't we rotate the Fitz and Tua throughout the game according to the situation? They both have their pros and cons. That would fuck defenses up...

It would also fuck up the flow of our offense. Tua is having a hard enough time as is getting the ball every drive. Taking a few drives off and going back in would not end well for him.

Lady Luck sure has not been on our side today

Pat Mahomes did us a huge favor with that comeback victory against Oakland.

Three teams are now tied for the last wildcard spot at 6-4

They are

BAL
MIA
LV

Miami plays LV in Week 16. so it's likely that that will be a must win game for Miami to have a realistic chance.

Man, that Broncos loss really hurt us. Forces us to win against a good team now.

I agree the loss hurts, But the bills can just as easily lose against teams they are favored to beat.

Gotta beat them AND the Bills at the end of the season to have any hope of making it.  The Jets and the Burrow-less Bengals should be easy wins, but the Chiefs are a definite loss. 

I wouldn't say the Chiefs are a definite loss, we match up well with them.  I'd be more scared of a team like the Titans or even the Ravens.  A running team is going to do better than a passing team.

We can beat the Pats too. 5-1 to finish is pretty much a best case scenario but not at all impossible. Just have to beat the teams we are better than and also beat the two teams we are equal too. It's possible to beat the Chiefs but not likely.

Right now we are in the playoffs but it's going to be tight this year. Seems crazy but even with the added team, a 10-6 team could be staying home.

Win next week against the awful Bengals and we are 8-4, meaning at the very least we need to go 2-2 against the Chiefs, Raiders, Bills and Patriots. Certainly possible but we just got beat by the awful Broncos so forget about any predictions at this point.

Bills keep winning close games against shit teams and it's annoying. They'll get exposed in the playoffs again.

Too much football to be played for me to even be thinking about what has to happen for the Fins to get in the playoffs at this point.  Just keep winning.

I have to comply reverse course on the playoffs.  I forgot (didn’t know) that there’s an extra playoff team.  Mea culpa on that.

Works for us this year but in general I hate it. Soon half the league will make the playoffs, plus it diminishes the #2 seed, practically guaranteeing the #1 seed goes to the Superbowl.

Agreed.  It is a sign of the times.  All aspects of society (sports included) keep lowering the bar of "excellence" and now even mediocrity is celebrated.

This was supposed to be due to the pandemic and all that, but no way they stop doing it going forward. Owners love that extra revenue from having more playoff games. Sadly, I fear that MLB will also taint their playoff system going forward with whatever the hell joke this year was.

CLE 8-3

IND 7-4

MIA 7-4

BAL 6-4

LV 6-5

NE 5-6

No offense, no defense. -21 point differential. Are the Browns the worst 8-3 team ever?

I totally disagree and think it will make for better teams.

As is, there are too many divisions, so you let garbage teams in to advance.  With an extra slot, you'll get a better average in quality and less protection for the last seed.  Also, you're not giving bye weeks to as many teams.  I think this is a huge positive.

I get what you are saying and you make a couple of good points, but I still don't like the overall result of making the playoffs less of an accomplishment. 

Oakland will likely beat the Jets

We want Houston to win against the Colts

We want LAC to win against the Patriots

We want Dallas to defeat Baltimore

^^ I would rather have the draft capital from Houston losing then depend on the Colts to lose.  The Dolphins are in the drivers seat, if they can't win enough to get in the playoffs, they shouldn't be there anyway.

Exactly.  If you don't win enough games to be in the playoffs you shouldn't be in the playoffs.  I want to bang the prom queen because she wants me to bang her.  I don't want a pity F.  lol

Agreed, I want Indy to beat them twice. If we can't get 3 wins in the last 5 games, one against the Burrowless Bengals then we deserve to stay home.

I... I... I... Aw, never mind

LOL!!  C'mon, man.  I give you a set up like that and you just pass it by?    :D

I mean, you want to bang the prom queen because she wants to bang you, but you still want to bang the prom queen if it's a pity F too lol.

I get your point though, nice analogy!

After the Bengals, the Dolphins have NE, KC, BUF, and OAK.

They need all the help they can get.

SCREW THE DRAFT.  I WANT THE PLAYOFFS.       

Assuming Miami wins the Bengals game:

If Miami wins all of their games, it would put them at 12-4, and they would be immediate Superbowl contenders with only the Steelers and maybe KC who they would have already beaten ahead of them.

If Miami was a serious contender, they'd be 3-1 after that run, putting them at 11-5

If Miami was fringe playoffs, 2-2 putting them at 10-6

If they do worse than that, they're sitting at 9-7 or worse, which probably wouldn't get them in the playoffs anyway.  Like I said, I don't give a damn about the Colts, I want the Texans to lose as many games as possible, especially this season since we have both their first and second round picks.

At this point, I'd be content to bang the secretary of the AV Club: Let's get that 7 seed.

I am not assuming Miami wins the Bengals game

If Miami doesn't beat the Bengals without Joe Burrow, then we should be forced to give the Texans our own draft picks.

^^^^^^^^

Yes, you are right.  No playoff team has ever suffered an upset during the regular season in the history the NFL. 

When a team does get upset, they concede that they have no chance of doing anything the rest of the season.

If they DO win, then actually, I was wrong about the Titans and Browns game.  That game benefits them either way.  Either way, they are guaranteed to catch up to either the Browns or the Titans.

Watch out for her braces, brother.  lol

Well here's where things stand right now:

Cle  9-3
ind  8-4
Mia  8-4
LV   7-5
Bal  6-5

NE is creeping back into it at 6-6

Stupid Jets could've all but eliminated the Raiders for us. Now, our last 4 games include 3 playoff spot opponents for us and the Chiefs. We want the playoffs, we're going to have to earn it.

If NE beats the Dolphins two weeks from now that is huge because it gives them tiebreakers over three teams


Miami probably has to beat the Patriots and the Raiders to have any shot

Next week:

Indy plays LA
Baltimore plays Cleveland
Tennessee plays Jacksonville

Forget this. If the Dolphins can’t get in on their own record then they’re not good enough.

Cleveland needs to beat Baltimore because their schedule to end the year is laughable, the best team they would play is the Giants, who are admittedly playing much better but still shitty.

No guarantees that we get in at 10-6, but that will probably be enough. 11-5 and a division title would be much nicer though.

Let's assume Miami loses to KC

Indy plays LV

Do we want Indy to lose and make both teams 8-5

or

Do we want LV to lose, which makes Indy 9-4 and Oakland 7-6

Bal plays Cle

Do we want Cle to win and go to 10-3 and the Ravens to either 7-6 or 6-7?

Good news is the Patriots have a REALLY tough draw against the Rams on Thursday

Bad news is if they win, they are in the driver's seat for the Wild Card 

Tennessee should easily handle the Jaguars.

Crazy times are ahead, that's for sure

No

You're just a negative Nancy all the time aren't you?

He's just not a football fan. He enjoys delving into statistics, probabilities, rules etc but he has no real interest in football itself. That's pretty obvious from his comments.

This thread seems to ignore the fact that Miami can win the division.  The Bills aren't that great.  Next up the Bills play Pittsburg that will want to bounce back from a loss; after that they go on the road to Denver and New England - both teams are picking up speed.  Miami will play the Chiefs and Patriots at home, then on the road to LV.  So the final game of the season with Miami at Buffalo can still decide the division winner.

After tonight, that got much harder

We could wind up in the same situation the Steelers were in 2018, where the whole fanbase stayed behind to watch the Browns games.   

(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/ngdxE03mE2W9JM0Udtye4fC5N-w=/675x518/filters:format(png)/media/img/posts/2014/05/debbie/original.png)

What is the tiebreaker situation for the division with Buffalo? If we beat them in Week 17 and have the same record, who wins?

    Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in common games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss

The Bills are 4-0 in the Division while Miami is 2-2.  We have games against the Pats and Bills left, they have games against us and the Pats left.  Assuming we win both and they lose both, that would put us both at 4-2 in the division.  It then goes to the next tiebreaker, common games.  That one gets a bit more complicated, I'm not sure who wins the division after that.

Wish we didn't start off the year against the Pats and Bills, we didn't even get our footing yet.

Either way, we have to basically win every game except the Chiefs and hope that the Bills lose at least to the Steelers before they lose to us, then who knows with the tiebreakers. I read that conference record is the 3rd tiebreaker, that makes more sense. That would be close too, then strength of schedule which Buffalo would have.

Yeah, we're pretty much screwed for the division unless we have a better record than Buffalo. On the bright side, they may not play all their starters in Week 17 if the division is wrapped up and there is nothing to be gained for seeding.

Seems unlikely we'll win the division, given the tie-breakers. Those last four games are pretty brutal and I could see us lose all 4. Probably the most likely outcome is we win 2, but I wouldn't be surprised with 1 or even 3 wins (the latter being the less likely, IMHO). At 10-6 it would probably come down to the game against the Raiders. 10-6 with a win in that one and odds are good we'd get the 7th seed.

Got some great number crunching to share with you guys after the game

A Cowboys win tonight puts Baltimore 2 games behind us for the playoff spot and shoots Dallas up to 4-8 with the Texans. Keep that pick in the Top 10 for us.

MIA can no longer beat BUF on tiebreakers.

Division teams play against the same opponents for 14 of their games, with the two exceptions being two intraconference opponents that finished in the same division placing last season.

For 4th-place MIA, those games were JAX (W) and CIN (W).
For 2nd-place BUF, those games were TEN (L) and PIT (TBD).

If MIA and BUF finish with the same overall record, then by definition BUF must have at least one more win among the 14 games they have played common opponents (or else BUF would be at least one loss back).

MIA finishes with a better record or BUF wins the division.  It's that simple.

Refs have screwed us two nights in a row

What about NE?  Can they still win the division

..

Unless something shocking happens with Buffalo, we need to win out while Buffalo loses to Pittsburgh next week. They can certainly lose to the Steelers and to us, but Miami winning the last 4? I wouldn't bet on that.

This is all because we lost to the fucking Broncos.

Well, I think we can give Baltimore this game

So anyway

Here are the four possibilities (barring any ties) for the wild card teams next week

Scenario one

Cle: 10-3
Ind: 8-5
LV:   8-5
Bal: 7-6

Scenario two

Cle: 10-3
Ind: 9-4
LV:   7-6
Bal: 7-6

Scenario three

Cle: 9-4
Ind: 9-4
Bal: 8-5
LV:  7-6

Scenario four

Cle: 9-4
Ind  8-5
Bal  8-5
LV:  8-5

Assuming Miami loses the Chiefs, which of these scenarios is best for Miami?

no

This is HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO.

Can we discuss this HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO?

If you want to discuss if Miami wins, we can do that.

Personally, I will bet my entire 9.5 time and half hours at the store a couple weeks ago that they lose.

d4l, if you really want to do this, sure...

Yes, the Patriots can still win the division. They have 6 wins with 4 games remaining and no one in the AFC East has reached 10, so that's obvious. They can even beat the Bills on tie-breaker, so they don't even need to win out (theoretically) or, alternatively, have the Bills lose all four. They do need to actually beat the Bills, though. But 3 wins in the last four rounds could (in theory) see the Patriots with the division title.

That should tell you a little about the problem of trying to do the numbers at this stage. There are simply *a lot* of possibilities, so from a team perspective it's much better to just think in terms of getting things done yourself. Can't win 10? Then go home.

Your "four possibilities" above is woefully incomplete to the point of being meaningless. With only the Chiefs having won their division, there are 11 teams vying for the remaining AFC playoff spots (3 divisions + 3 wildcards). Not all can still win their respective division, but all are in play for a wild card.

At this stage you can either start pruning the more unlikely scenarios (e.g. Houston out), lock in the most likely ones (e.g. Steelers win division) or you can look at it from different point of view in how the Dolphins get in with varying number of wins. There are still a dizzying number of possibilities, but without doing some fancy diagramming it's definitely the easiest, so let's stick with that:

8 wins and the Dolphins can theoretically get the 7th seed (and only 7th seed), but would require a staggering number of things to happen, including the Colts losing out. They are pretty much the only 8-8 tie-breaker we could win.

9 wins and the Dolphins are most likely out, but there are a number of ways in as a wild card. It gets a bit messy, but the absolutely most important game is the one against the Raiders. Winning that gives the Dolphins the tiebreaker against the Raiders (head-to-head). Realistic 9-win teams: Colts, Ravens, Raiders, and Patriots. Of those we *always* lose a 9-win tiebreaker to the Patriots (either head-to-head or division). A win against the Raiders would give us the tiebreaker over the Raiders (head-to-head), the Colts (conference or common games), and the Ravens (conference)! If we lose to the Raiders, there are still options, but we start to lose a lot of likely 9-win tiebreakers. First and foremost, of course, you need to hope no more than one of Colts/Ravens/Raiders wind up with 10 wins and, preferably, that the Patriots don't wind up with 9. And, just for the record, you would definitely want the Titans to win the AFC South as they would have the tiebreaker with a win over either the Jaguars or the Texans.

10 wins and the Dolphins are very likely to make it. The other possible 10+ win non-division winners are Patriots, Colts/Titans, Browns, Ravens, and Raiders. We can't have 3 of those 5 get to 11 wins, or 10 in case of the Patriots. We can take care of business ourselves with the Raiders and Patriots (who need to win out to get to 10). At 10 wins, we would hold the tiebreakers against the Ravens and Colts, so they would both have to win 11+, along with the Browns being 11+ or 10 + the tiebreaker (which would come down to which remaining games each team won) for us not to make the playoffs with 10 wins.

11 wins and the Dolphins are *almost* guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. The Browns and either Colts/Titans can still finish better and grab the 5th and 6th seeds, but that 7th one (or better) is all ours unless the Raiders win out (so our 1 loss would have to be against them) in addition to the Browns, Colts, *and* Titans all reaching 12+ wins. (We would win tiebreakers against the Ravens and Steelers - the latter going to common opponents, where we would win since we can't lose against the Bills in this scenario).

12 wins and the Dolphins are in. We could still lose the tiebreaker for the division to Bills, but only one of the Browns/Colts could grab a higher wild card seed than the 12-win Dolphins.

So, how does all this apply to upcoming schedule, if you really need to be cheering for other teams at this stage? Well, 10 wins seems the most likely and we don't want to lower the overall probability of getting into the playoffs just to keep very unlikely paths open right now, so you would want:

BROWNS at home over Ravens.
STEELERS away over Bills.
RAMS at home over Patriots.

Those are easy. You'd probably also want the JAGUARS over the Titans, although you do want the Titans to win the division, so it's not that important a game unless you believe the Titans are going to melt down and lose 3+ of their last 4 (Jaguars, Lions, Packers, Texans).

The hardest is probably the Colts @ Raiders game.

This one comes down to whether you believe the Dolphins can handle the Raiders themselves. If you a sure of that, then the best thing would be a Raiders win. Otherwise, you might want to put away the Raiders' right here and increase the possibility of getting into the playoffs with just 9 wins (still very unlikely, just slightly less so) or 10 wins with a loss to the Raiders (which would mean two wins in games against the Chiefs, Patriots, and Bills - along with a bunch of other stuff, see the 9 wins section above).

At this point, my gut is that if we can't take care of the Raiders ourselves, we won't get in anyway. Too many tiebreakers and the remaining schedule isn't easy. So I would say:

RAIDERS at home over Colts.

Great start to this week for Miami.  That should all but eliminate the Patriots from playoff contention.

Who would you rather see in two weeks?  Stitham or Newton?

No, they cannot

Yes, they can.

If NE wins out, BUF loses out, and MIA loses against KC and LV, all three teams would be 9-7, but NE would have the best division record at 5-1.

Setting aside the games in which NE controls it's own destiny - the games NE itself plays - such an outcome would likely involve only two upsets: BUF losing on the road against DEN and at home against MIA.

I was wrong about this.   Score this one in the d4l is wrong column

What is the best site for playoff chances?  I may have been wrong about the Patriots being all but eliminated, too.  If they beat Miami, they go to 7-7 with three head to head tiebreakers in hand.

They aren't eliminated but they are all but eliminated. They can certainly win their last 3 but they still need at least 3 other teams to completely collapse.

It is a very long column.



http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html. is a good site

That's an interesting site, thanks! I especially like the "magic number" chart.

Well here is how things stand now

The Division is all but out of the question for Miami.

Here are the WC teams

Cleveland is 9-3  They will almost certainly take the top WC spot.

Miami is 8-5
indy is 8-5
LV is 7-6
Baltimore is 7-5

NE is still in the hunt at 6-7.  Miami can eliminate them with a win next week.  

Miami cannot be eliminated from contention next week.

Miami MUST defeat LV to have a chance.  

I wonder what the chances are if Miami wins that game and either one of the two division games it has left.

We definitely will be rooting for the Browns to beat the Ravens.

^ We don't *need* to win against LV, but as I said in my walk-through above, it was (and is) the most important game remaining. A Ravens loss tonight would be nice, but really, the Dolphins still control their own destiny! Seriously, it's mid-December and we're playing meaningful football!

How great is that?!

After watching the Bills demolish the Steelers last night, Miami has to win against New England and Las Vegas to have a decent chance at the playoffs. Wishing for Miami to win that last game against Buffalo is going to be harder then it was winning against KC.

No way, the Steelers are kind of frauds that had an easy schedule.  KC would destroy the Steelers, and the Dolphins hung with KC.  I think with a full strength defense against Buffalo, we stand a pretty good chance.

Agreed, Steelers were perhaps the worst 11-0 team in history. Far from being a bad team but they are not a juggernaut.

Arguably the weakest 11-0 team in history would be the 72 Dolphins, the only team in the super bowl era to play an entire regular season without facing a single playoff bound team. 

Quiet your blasphemous mouth troll

Did you expect anything less from Hoodie?

I'm still wondering when people will wise up that he's not here for the betterment of the board lol.

More like to rub salt in the wounds.  ;D

Their hopes just took a huge hit with the Ravens victory  >:(

It's between them and the Ravens for the last spot, and the Ravens have a very easy schedule.

The Dolphins need to win out now

If they do win out, they make the playoffs.

BTW, apart from last year Miami has been in playoff contention the previous three years. 

I could easily see the Browns lose to the Giants and Steelers, leaving them with 10 wins. That would leave them 7-5 in the AFC, same as a 10-win Dolphins team.  That makes the tiebreaker common opponents where a win over the Raiders would give the Dolphins the edge.

Basically, 10 wins with one of them coming against the Raiders results in the Dolphins holding the tiebreaker over both the Ravens and the Browns, so one of them just needs to stumble. At 11 wins, the Dolphins would also hold both tiebreakers.

At this point, I'm not worrying too much about everything else and just hoping we get those 10 wins and continue to see promising play from what is a very young team.

Winning out puts Miami in the playoffs, but that is going to be REALLY hard to do.   

I don't share most people's beliefs on the board about rebuilding.  I view each year as it's own year, and this year, I'm rooting for a playoff berth, because you never know when you might get back to the playoffs.

But Buffalo didn't just beat the Steelers they destroyed them. I think the Bills would give KC a very good game right now if not beat them. Winning that game against Buffalo is going to be VERY difficult. Maybe more difficult then the game against KC and Miami is banged up right now. No way I see this current Dolphins team beating Buffalo. No way. I'm not even sure they beat Vegas or New England. I favor them over those 2 teams but not by much. Miami could go 0-3 the rest of the way and finish 8-8. The easy part of the schedule is over.

Don't get me wrong, 8-8 for this year is not a bad record. Not bad at all. Most of the talk before the year started was 6-10 was the Dolphins high water mark. Go back and check out this thread for some perspective.

http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26239.msg367858#msg367858

The bad men are gone now, we're a good team.  Other teams are singing our praises of how surprisingly good we are.  Even banged up, we should beat the Patriots and the Raiders.  The Bills will be a difficult game sure, but to say "No way"...naw I don't buy it.  I think we can hang with Buffalo.

When we were a worse team still trying ti find our footing, we only lost by 3 to Buffalo and that was without Byron Jones. We are definitely underdogs but beating Buffalo is not impossible.

Yeah that was back when Buffalo was still finding their offense as well. Well they have found it. Buffalo's offense might be more dangerous to the Dolphins than KC's since it's a more balanced attack in my opinion and their defense is better then KC's. Miami sort of matched up better with KC then they do with Buffalo. Miami is a better team now (when healthy) then they were at the beginning of the year but so is Buffalo and Miami is much more banged up right now then at the beginning of the year. I think Miami is gonna lose big to Buffalo in that last game unless they get really healthy before then.

I don't think they will lose big.

The main problem is that Baltimore plays three cupcakes in a row.     

After this last game I think our odds went down tremendously to make the playoffs. It looks like Tua will have not have any weapons to use so scoring may become an issue in the long run.

They did, the Browns really screwed us with their usual shameful Clevelandness. The best scenario is still we finish 10-6 and the Ravens lose one game, probably to the Giants who have been playing much better and are now fighting for a division or wild card spot.

The Gesicki injury is going to hurt as it seems like at earliest he will be back against Buffalo. At the end of the day, finishing 10-6 but losing out on tiebreakers is still a gigantic step in the right direction for a team that was so bad last year that players demanded trades. Let's hope our season doesn't end there but with all of those draft picks coming up, we can aim higher next year without us being delusional.

It doesn't look like we will finish 10-6 without some miracles. We have zero running game and now our receivers are basically practice squad guys. The best we have are our back up TEs. Doesn't bode well for a rookie QB. Hell ... doesn't bode well for any QB.

We did pretty well against the best team in the league with the scrub backups. Not saying it is ideal but with our defense, we can absolutely win the next 2 games and give Buffalo a run for their money. Van Noy should be back soon too, he was sorely missed yesterday.

^^^^ I don't expect it will work that well for a team who is game planning against back ups. It's like a new QB. they brig in a back up and he lights it up. He starts the next week and can't get a first down.

Five Thirty Eight's predictive modeling has the Dolphins with a 25% chance of making the playoffs, 1% chance of winning the division, and <1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

We all have to root for the Giants against the Ravens because Baltimore is not losing to Jacksonville or the Bengals. We both go 2-1 and we're in. Otherwise, we have to win out. Wouldn't that be some shit? Going 10-6, a record almost always good enough for the playoffs is no good in the year where they added an extra Wild Card team.

Because of the suckiness of the bottom feeders.

The Bottom feeders suck so bad, the middle of the pack teams have more wins than normal

The Browns could also blow it, they have the Giants, Jets and Steelers left.  A Giants and Steelers loss would likely knock them out.  The only good teams they've beat this season are the Colts and the Titans, they smell of fraud.

^^^ It's a rare thing when you and I are on opposite ends of a football opinion, but that is definitely the case here. I not only see Cleveland as a top-5 team in the NFL right now, but I believe they might be the only team that has a chance to knock KC out of the playoffs. Their running game is insane, they have weapons in the passing game like Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Baker has been playing exceptionally well lately. They also have elite talent at all three levels of their defense.

Here's my thin-branch prediction for Cleveland... They win their last 3 games, including Pittsburgh, to finish 12-4... and then they make it to the AFC title game.

Maybe you're right, maybe they've finally put together all of those pieces and aren't paper tigers anymore.  If they finish out the season 3-0 I'll be a believer.

Shit, that includes us too. 4 games against the Jets, Jaguars and Bengals.

And maybe I'm wrong as well. It certainly wouldn't be the first time I predicted team greatness based on individual talents, rather than how well they put everything together on the field.

Carr pulled his groin tonight and knowing how those injuries are I doubt he's going to be ready to play when they play the Dolphins. Mariotta is his backup. I'll reserve my judgement whether this helps the Dolphins chances in that game till I watch the rest of the game.

Carr just pulled his groin for the Raiders and is out of the game. Very unlikely he returns as a pulled groin is just not an injury you can tough it as it kills your mobility and hurts like a bitch.

They're down 7-3 to the Chargers now. If they lose, they're basically out of the playoffs, plus the Chargers get to 5 wins and leapfrog the Texans in the draft. So, two things to root for.

And with that I don't think having Mariotta under center increases the Dolphins chances.

He's definitely had a hot start, thank God Herbert is willing his team to victory.

I'm warming up to Tua, but I'd still rather have Herbert.

Talk about a potential butterfly effect if MIA ends up losing to LV:

- Tannehill doesn't play well on the Dolphins, get traded to TEN
- Mariota doesn't play well on TEN, gets benched for Tannehill
- Mariota signs with LV, Carr gets injured, Mariota replaces him
- Mariota beats MIA, knocking them out of the playoff chase

In a sense, this could be Tannehill stopping the Dolphins from reaching the playoffs again.

That's funny. Mayfield was the guy I really wanted.

Chargers Win!

Anthony Lynn is just the worst coach in the NFL. The in game management is Rich Kitite with a drinking problem. The Chargers job will be the most coveted in the offseason. Franchise QB, great weather, new stadium and decent amount of talent.

Raiders are basically done, let's hope they realize that next Saturday and roll over for us.

Best chance for Miami to make the playoffs now I believe is for Cleveland to lost to the Giants.

Let's see if Daniel Jones plays. They can lose to the Giants and Steelers, but not the Jets. So, do we own the 10-6 tiebreakers over them?

That's actually kind of funny. It's really hard to see how simple things can effect life but that is certainly the case.

Yes. If Miami beats New England and Las Vegas and Cleveland loses to the Giants and Steelers, Miami will make the playoffs. Another scenario would be Indy losing to Houston and the Steelers and finishing 10-6 and Miami would win the tie breakers there as well. I think either of those scenario's are more likely then the Ravens losing to either the Jags or the Bengals.

Bills are killing the Broncos so they win the division, no surprise.

How the fuck did we lose to the Broncos? Might be the game that keeps us out of the playoffs.

Nothing really changed because everyone won this week with the Browns playing the Giants tonight. They lose and we are tied at 9-5, plus the Giants get that 6th win and very likely won't drop below the Texans in the draft order.

Will the fans of every team still in the playoff hunt please stand up?  Have a seat, Hoodie. 

Well, it doesn't feel as good to ruin the Patriots' season without Brady.

I think it's safe to assume all Patriots fans have jumped off the bandwagon.

But anyway, on to Miami's chances.

GO GIANTS!!!!!!!!

Well, they need to win out or hope for a miracle upset.

The question is if the Bills will rest their starters in Week 17

If the Chiefs win next week, then they lock up the #1 seed and since the #2 doesn't get a bye this year, i doesn't mean a whole lot of difference between 2 and 3, especially with no fans in attendance. Homefield advantage has basically gone away. It would make more sense for them to rest up some key players but we have no idea what they will do.

It's going to be a tough game for them since we will be fighting for our lives and those intense games can lead to injuries.

The Titans, Browns, and Colts are 10-4
The Dolphins and Ravens are 9-5

It is my understanding that Miami wins the tiebreaker over all four of the other teams.  Is this correct?

From what I've seen, we own the tiebreakers over the Colts and Ravens, not sure about the Browns. Problem is, their remaining schedules are so easy we probably won't finish with the same record. That leaves the Titans and I haven't seen anything tiebreaker scenarios with them yet.

Once again, the loss to the Broncos may have eliminated us from the playoffs.

I'm confident we can beat the Raiders, so that leaves the Bills.  If they sit their starters, we will win.  If they don't, we could win as we matchup well with them, but they are the better team overall. 

Bills are still a very good team so even if they rest their starters, they aren't resting all 25 of them. Probably just some guys who are banged up and can use an extra week to get healthy for a championship run. If Josh Allen is healthy, he would at least play a half. Going from the 3rd seed to 2nd does help, but it's not world changing like 2 to 1 would be.

For those who'd like to dive into all the scenarios

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine (http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine)

Yeah, they are basically no realistic scenario where we go 10-6 and make the playoffs other than the Ravens lose to the Giants or Bengals. The Colts would have to lose out in another scenario.

Basically, we need to go 11-5 or we're going home.

In a year where they expanded the playoffs, too.  Unreal.

I know. Like someone else said in this thread, too many garbage teams this year, not a whole lot of middle of the road so everyone feasted on the weaker teams, us included. Jets 2x, Bengals, Jaguars. The NFC East winner in all likelihood is topping out at 7-9. Shit, the Jets are going to go 1-15 and NOT pick 1st.

This happened in 2008 with the Pats to a degree. They went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.

Just found out this is incorrect.  If Baltimore loses to the Giants and defeats the Bengals, and Miami finishes 10-6, Baltimore wins the tiebreak over Miami

No reason to look past LV next week. It is not a gimme by any means.

Barring a miracle comeback the Bills will NOT be resting their starters

Being the 2nd seed is better than being the 3rd, but with no real homefield advantage this year, is it worth it if it means playing some banged up guys who could use a rest?

Browns are 1 game behind the Steelers and play the Jets next week and finish against the Steelers. If Pittsburgh loses to Indy next week, something that seems likely at this point the way both teams have been playing, Week 17 is for the AFC North.

Yeah, we lost every single tiebreak against every single team that can go 10-6. That sucks.

Our only hope is Baltimore either dropping their next 2 while we go 10-6 or we go 11-5, those are the only two scenarios in which we make the playoffs. Saturday is a playoff game for us essentially.

Screw everyone else, we're going to win out and get hot going into the playoffs.  Lessssssgoooooo

I'm very confident that we will beat the Raiders, we are the better team and we actually have something to play for. We can also beat the Bills but that will be tough, even tougher will be beating them 2 weeks in a row which is the most likely scenario as they will be the 2 seed and we will be the 7 seed. It's possible the Steelers win their next two games and regain the 2nd seed but they are circling the drain right now.

If we go into week 17 with the Bills in a situation where losing to the Dolphins means the Bills host the Dolphins the following week, best course of action for the Bills is to play a generic game plan but play competitive enough to require the fins to show their hand.

If I'm the Bills, I want Miami out of the playoffs if there is any chance they could meet them in the playoffs. It's never a good idea to play a team from your own division in the playoffs. They know you too well and there's already a built in rivalry which could mean that playoff game goes anyway regardless of the relative strength of the teams. I'd much rather do whatever it took to beat the Dolphins and host a wild card team that rarely comes to Buffalo. Your odds in the playoff game are much better in that scenario in my opinion.

I think all this about the Bills sitting guys and not trying to win is just wishful thinking --- that's old-school mentality.  I think these guys would rather carry the momentum of winning into the playoffs.

Work both ways you know your division rivals better too.  If I am the Bills I want to play Fins or Colts in a negative wind chill.  Browns and Ravens practice in the cold.

That's more likely than not, I'm just saying if going into the game Josh Allen is a game day decision with a hamstring problem, they would be very stupid to start him. Everyone has bumps and bruises but if your top players are going to play hurt, it's not going to bode well for them for the next 3 playoff rounds and then Superbowl.

If we had clinched a spot going into the game, I would want us to rest whoever is hurt.

This is incorrect.

At 10 wins, we'd own tiebreakers (conference record) over the Browns and Colts (but not the Titans).

Dolphins v Ravens @ 10 wins each:

Wild Card Tie-breakers for two teams in different divisions go: (T1) Head-to-head, (T2) conference, (T3) common games, (T4) strength of victory, etc.

T1: The Ravens and Dolphins don't have a head-to-head.
T2: The Dolphins are currently 6-4 in the AFC with 2 conference games remaining. 10 wins equals 7-5 conference record. The Ravens are currently 6-5 in the AFC with 1 conference game remaining. 10 wins can result in EITHER 6-6 OR 7-5 conference record. If the Ravens lose to the Bengals, the Dolphins win the tie-breaker.
T3: If the Ravens win over the Bengals, but lose to the Giants, T2 is tied and we move to common opponents. They are Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars. At 10-6 with a win over the Bengals, the Ravens are 3-2 in common games, just like the Dolphins.
T4: The Ravens are ahead by quite a bit on Strength of Victory, but there is plenty of room for us to win this tiebreaker. At 10 wins and actually reaching this tiebreaker, the Ravens lost to the stronger of their two remaining opponents, meaning we would gain 4 or 8 wins of 12.5 that separate us in SoV. We've each won a bunch of games featuring opponents that the other hasn't beat/played. With two rounds left, that's a substantial potential shift. Basically, we'd want SF, NYJ, LAR, ARI, LAC, LV, BUF, and NE to win, while CLE, HOU, WAS, CIN, PHI, IND, and DAL lose. There are quite a few games between those teams remaining (e.g. SF@ARI), so it's not a potential shift of 16 wins, but it is *possible* (realistically, it would require us beating the Bills + some luck).

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, we can still make the playoffs if we lose next week as long as the Browns lose to the Steelers. The Jets just gave us a big backdoor into the postseason with that win today.

Or if the Colts lose to the Jags or the Ravens lose to the Bengals although those are less likely.

Any one of 4 teams winning gets us into the playoffs.

Dolphins win.
Steelers win.
Jaguars win.
Bengals win.

538's modeling has us at a 74% chance of getting in.

What no one has mentioned yet is that Miami could actually be the 5th seed and get to play Tennessee if they beat Buffalo and the rest of the favored teams win. That would be an interesting matchup. Not sure I'd want to face the Tennessee ground game but it might be better then facing Buffalo's offense.

In order of likelihood:

Steelers
Dolphins
Bengals
Jaguars

Don't sleep on the Jaguars though, they clinched the #1 pick. They might actually try next week.

You're right about that last statement.   Especially because in all likelihood, there will be a new coaching staff and new front office in place next season so this current roster will be auditioning for their jobs.

What do we want tomorrow?

The Bills win the head to head tiebreaker over the Steelers.  If they win tomorrow both teams will be 12-3.

The games are at the same time next week. 

If the Dolphins lose, and the Steelers find this out, they may just give up against Cleveland.     

If the Bills lose tomorrow, they will be 11-4, and control their own destiny for the two seed. This means, the Steelers will have to play hard all the way if the Bills win next week. 

Conclusion:  Root for the Bills to lose tomorrow

You just said it: the games are at the same time.

So if MIA can hypothetically lose in time for PIT to find out and stop trying against CLE, then PIT can also lose in time for BUF to find out and stop trying against MIA.

MIA winning is a better outcome than CLE losing (better seeding), so we should root for BUF to beat NE.

That snapping sound you hear is a thin branch breaking under the weight of my idiocy...

 ::)

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine (http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine)

Looks like MIA can get in IF they lose to BUF and PIT beats CIN.  Would make them the 7th seed playing back in buffalo the following week

IF MIA can beat them next week, could improve their seed to the 5th and play at TEN (assumes that TEN beats HOU)

I believe HOU has the Top-5 draft pick wrapped up.  So, we as Dolphins fans love that, getting a Top-5 pick AND another 1st round pick.

Will be a helluva next weekend with all the finger-nail biting and channel surfing.  First and foremost, parker needs to suit up next week for the Fins to have a shot against BUF.  It will be all hands on deck.

Win and You're In!!!!!!!!!!

Fins Up!!!!!!!!

Just a note that Cleveland is favored by 6 points to beat Pittsburgh so the Dolphins cannot rely on this to make the playoffs. The reason is that Pittsburgh doesn't have much to play for now. There's no line for the Dolphins/Bills game yet at least not that I can find. I imagine they are waiting till it's more clear who the Dolphins/Bills are going to start.

It may come down to what players Cleveland has available for the game. Either way you never want to lose to a division rival.

In the words of Al Davis, Just Win Baby!

Even if the Dolphins don't make the playoffs it's been a helluva successful season.

Agree with you there...but I would love to beat the Bills to get into the playoffs. That would be the icing on the cake.

As an upstate NY resident I couldn't agree with you more.  I feel like we are heading back to the 80/90's when we battled the Bills every year.

Saying that PIT "doesn't have much to play for" is like saying that IND "doesn't have much to play for." It's pretty silly to think that if you are behind on tiebreakers, you have little motivation to play.

I think it's more than that.  Pitt is a fraud. 

They've had to advantage of being in a terrible division in the AFC, while simultaneously playing a terrible division in the NFC.

I have a few friends that are Steelers fans and even they were saying Pitt was not that good (and this was before their three losses); heck they almost lost to Dallas who started the QB from Orlando Apollos.

Well, now the Bills can clinch the number two seed with a win, so they will be playing all out.

Things just got much harder for Miami to make the playoffs.

The NFL should flex Miami's game to four.

This sums up my feelings exactly.  Take care of your own business. You can't control what happens in other games.  Win your game.   And no matter what happens this weekend, the Dolphins are way ahead of where I expected them to be this year in terms of becoming a force to be reckoned with in the NFL again. 

How?

I'm not necessarily saying they won't play all out, but the #2 seed really doesn't mean much of anything this year.

#1 gets a bye and that's a huge deal, so I get that.  But #2 vs. #3 only matters if #2 specifically plays against #3 at some point, in which case they'd get to play at home, which also doesn't seem to matter as much this year.  And with the other team in the mix being the Steelers (who are not a great team by any stretch), I doubt they'll even be around late in the playoffs anyway.  I have a feeling that the seeding won't matter one bit.

Lot of strong teams in the AFC this year where 3-7 doesn't matter. Chiefs and Buffalo are clearly the best but I would lump everyone from 3-7 in together.

The Steelers announced they are starting Mason Rudolph on Sunday and will probably rest a lot of their starters. So, that sucks for us. Hopefully, Buffalo sees this and rests a few of their own on Sunday. Browns losing was probably our best way to get in, now it would take some huge upsets orn we beat Buffalo.

Pitt is in a terrible division? You think Cleveland and Baltimore are pushovers? Not sure where you are coming from with that take. Now I don't think Pitt was as a good as their record indicated a couple weeks ago, but they are about where they should be now. Getting to play the NFC least was nice but they lost to Washington so they didn't feast on that division as much as they could have. Pitt is still a good team, they've just had a couple of bad weeks lately. I think Pitt would be favored or at the very least a 1 or 2 point spread with the Browns if the Steelers were playing all their starters.

I'm torn a bit whether I want to see Miami make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I would love to make the playoffs to get a taste of what that's like for the players, but I can also see us getting blown out in the playoffs and ending the season on a sour note. I wouldn't be that disappointed if they put up a good showing against Buffalo but end up losing and missing the playoffs. Make the team good and hungry for next year plus maybe pick up a few spots in the draft would not be such a terrible thing. If you would have told me going into the year we'd be 10-6 but miss the playoffs I would have taken it with a smile.

The Dolphins haven't been blown out all season, what makes you think that will start happening in the playoffs?

I would rather lose by 40 in the playoffs and have our young players understand what it takes to be champions as opposed to losing in Week 17 by any amount.

The regular season is not the playoffs but I don't think it will happen, I said I can see it happening. It's a possibility is all I'm saying. I don't think the Dolphins are playing their best ball right now and they are missing a lot of pieces and some other pieces are banged up. They have been getting by the last couple of weeks, but it's not been pretty. I think it could get ugly against Buffalo this weekend as I think Buffalo is on a roll at the right time and for the most part they are healthy. Now we could catch a break and they rest a lot of players, but I don't see them doing that because as I said they are on a roll and when you are on a roll you go with it in my opinion and you don't risk breaking that momentum into the playoffs. I don't think people are giving Pitt and Buffalo enough credit as I think both are pretty good teams and combined with KC, I can see any of these teams and maybe even Tennessee rolling over Miami in the playoffs and I don't want to see that happen. The last time I wished for Miami to make the playoffs when they weren't ready, I watched them get run over by the Steelers 30-12. It wasn't pretty.

All I'm saying is that if Miami loses by 3 to the Bills and get bounced from the playoffs, I won't be that disappointed.

Yes, I think it's a bad division.  Maybe pushover is a bit of a strong term, but yes...they're bad.  Cleveland isn't good.

The Browns haven't been over .500 since 2007.  They are a trash organization.

Their 10 wins this year:
Bengals
Washington
Cowboys
Colts (decent win)
Bengals again
Texans
Eagles
Jaguars
Titans (decent win)
Giants


They've lost to the Jets and the Raiders at home.

----

The Ravens have a better record historically, but similarly this year, can't beat anyone good.

Here are their wins:

Browns
Texans
Washington
Bengals
Eagles
Colts (decent win)
Cowboys
Browns again
Jaguars
Giants


I mean...that's a bad list.


Their own division is bad, so someone has to win.  Plus, they play the NFC East that is terrible and have at large games against the Jaguars and Texans and Jets.  I mean...it's a joke how bad their schedules are.

I hear what you are saying I guess, but then again they still won all those games. You can only play the teams on your schedule. Miami's big wins are against who exactly? 49'ers? Cardinals? Rams? Not exactly powerhouses this year. I think Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore are every bit as good as the Dolphins and are better then the Patriots. The Bengals are a better team then the Jets as well. So if that's a bad division the AFCE is worse.

I think the Patriots are better than probably both the Browns and the Ravens.  They have upwards of the hardest strength of schedule in the league:  Our division is tough, outside of the Jets (who beat the Browns).  The Patriots beat the Ravens head to head, as well.

Our division is good, and on top of that, we had to play the AFC West this year (also good) and the NFC West (also pretty good). 

I don't blame the Browns or Ravens or Steelers for being bad...as you said, you can only beat the teams they put on your schedule.  But, with that said, there are a lot of turds on that schedule and whoever is left standing in that division is about to get whooped by the rest of the league that has to claw its way into these final spots.

Most people would disagree with you. By quite a large margin. I think a little of your homerism is showing.

I just can't grasp anyone not wishing their team to make the playoffs.

There were lots of times that I was sick of the 7-9 or 9-7 purgatory and thought that losing big in the Wild Card round was meaningless, but this isn't one of those seasons. We are clearly a team on the rise and the playoffs would be amazing. Even 10-6 and missing the playoffs is a great turnaround season for us.

20 Years ago I would have agreed with you. Then I saw Jacksonville Destroy the Dolphins in 2000, Marino's last game of his career and had to see my hero walk off the field under those circumstances, humiliated. Then I saw them lose 27-9 in 2008 because they were a flawed team and really didn't belong in the playoffs. 30-12 in 2016 again because they were not a playoff caliber team. In my humble opinion Miami is not ready for the playoffs this year. If they were healthy, I would feel differently, but they are not, not even close really. Now maybe they get healthier in the next week and a half, but I'm not optimistic. If they get Parker back and perhaps Preston Williams too (where is he?) that would change everything. It's easy to think that you always want your team to be in the playoffs but after you see them get routed in the playoffs when you know going into the game that's a real possibility it becomes harder to swallow each time it happens. I get it. It sounds horrible and I'm not saying that I DON'T want them to make the playoffs, I'm saying that the reality is I don't think they have much chance of doing much in the playoffs and so not making the playoffs THIS YEAR won't be the end of the world to me. I'll deal with it either way. If the Dolphins happen to play great this weekend and beat Buffalo then I'll be extremely happy and much more optimistic about their chances in the playoffs, but right now I can't even imagine that. On the other hand if they get ripped by Buffalo and then somehow back into the playoffs because someone else loses, I won't feel good about that. Right now I'd rather wish that next year Miami is in a much better position to not just make the playoffs but challenge for the AFCE championship and perhaps a shot at a home playoff game and maybe the SuperBowl then. I was a teenager when I first started to root for the Dolphins in the mid to late 70's. I came on board too late to see those great teams of the early 70's. Everything was blue skies and butterflies back then. I wished for the Dolphins to be in the Superbowl every year, not the playoffs because back then the playoffs were a given. Now I'm 57. I'm too old to wish for the playoffs. I want something more. I want to wish for a Superbowl. I want to wish that because the playoffs are a given. That's where my mind is right now. Sorry to say that, but it's the truth.

I will be very disappointed if they don't make the playoffs.

I do not share the belief that they are on the upswing.  Football does not work that way.  There is too much fluidity.

If they make the playoffs, I will be thrilled and consider this season a success.

If they don't, I will consider this season worse than last year.  Last year we had the joy of watching them dismantle the dynasty.           

Worse than last year? Okay...

Ahem

Not that they had much of a shot at winning anyway, but the Jaguars are sitting James Robinson for Week 17. He has rushed for 1,400 yards somehow and went undrafted, so that's a cool story.

Either way, the stars appear to be lining up against us in teams of needing other teams to lose.

Going into this year, for me major improvement and a winning record were the major goals, playoffs were just a bonus. Like I said a while ago, we blew up the franchise and started from scratch like Dallas did before their dynasty in the 90s (and a few other less successful examples, but let's stick with Dallas as the blueprint). They went from 1-15 to 7-9, then 11-5 and a wildcard spot, then 13-3 and a Superbowl win.

Our year one was looking much like Dallas up until we snatched those 5 wins late, and our year two is ahead of the curve in comparison - that said, they already had a future HOF QB on their roster playing exceptionally well, and had a tough draw and a tough division featuring two other '90s Superbowl winners plus another perennial contender. Our draw and division in comparison is very soft...

I also have bad thoughts about the way that 2008 season finished (and 2000, although I never bought into 2016 TBH), and we got there courtesy of a soft draw and reality hit from that point on. That said, I got a feeling this team is better, it's been built up differently and is better equipped to handle it. I really like the way the team rebounded from the Kansas City loss, which again gives me hope...

So with a playoff spot up for grabs, I think it can only be good for the team to win and get there. A lot of this has to do with Flores and Grier, it took a while but I think we finally have the right guys making the decisions.