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TDMMC Forums => Dolphins Discussion => Topic started by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 07:22:26 am



Title: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 07:22:26 am
01   Sun, Sept. 11   Patriots   Dolphins      1 p.m.
02   Sun, Sept. 18   Dolphins   Ravens      1 p.m.
03   Sun, Sept. 25   Bills   Dolphins      1 p.m.
04   Thu, Sept. 29   Dolphins   Bengals      8:15 p.m.
05   Sun, Oct. 9   Dolphins   Jets      1 p.m.
06   Sun, Oct. 16   Vikings   Dolphins      1 p.m.
07   Sun, Oct. 23   Steelers   Dolphins      8:20 p.m.
08   Sun, Oct. 30   Dolphins   Lions      1 p.m.
09   Sun, Nov. 6   Dolphins   Bears      1 p.m.
10   Sun, Nov. 13   Browns   Dolphins      1 p.m.
11   Sun, Nov. 20   Bye         
12   Sun, Nov. 27   Texans   Dolphins      1 p.m.
13   Sun, Dec. 4   Dolphins   49ers      4:05 p.m.
14   Sun, Dec. 11   Dolphins   Chargers      4:05 p.m.
15   TBD   Dolphins   Bills      TBD
16   Sun, Dec. 25   Packers   Dolphins      1 p.m.
17   Sun, Jan. 1   Dolphins   Patriots      1 p.m.
18   TBD   Jets   Dolphins   TBD






Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on May 13, 2022, 08:40:34 am
I think it's a pretty fair schedule for us. Good Bye Week placement but we need to make our money in Weeks 5-12. Maybe even run the table if we want to be serious contenders this year because our start isn't that easy, especially with that Thursday Night horeshit and Weeks 14-17 won't be fun either. The team that travels more and is less healthy seems to lose on Thursday Nights, so hopefully the Bengals have a game in Japan that Sunday.

Ending with a winnable game is a nice change for once.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 13, 2022, 08:59:27 am
Minimum 12 wins there lessssgo!


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on May 13, 2022, 09:19:09 am
Minimum 12 wins there lessssgo!

I think facing Lamar Jackson the week before Buffalo will allow us to see what works to limit a mobile QB.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 13, 2022, 09:25:30 am
I assume week 13-14 was at Dolphins request with a plan to stay out west. 


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: ArtieChokePhin on May 13, 2022, 09:44:31 am
I assume week 13-14 was at Dolphins request with a plan to stay out west.  

Usually requests like that are granted.   The NFL does realize that two trans-continental flights in six days will give a whole new meaning to jet lag


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Spider-Dan on May 13, 2022, 12:50:20 pm
The league seriously needs to start scheduling Thursday night games after byes.  It's ridiculous.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 13, 2022, 01:22:06 pm
The league seriously needs to start scheduling Thursday night games after byes.  It's ridiculous.

I see Thursday night games (unless one team is coming off a bye and the other is not) as a non-issue.  Both teams have a short week so neither has an advantage or disadvantage.  And in fact the teams both have an advantage the following week having 3 extra days.

Bills have the best rest difference in the league. Patriots have second worst. Don’t know how the Dolphins faired but they aren’t in the best 3 or worst 3



Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 01:27:33 pm
I see 9 wins here.   ...probably no playoffs.

Here's how I got there

Pats .75
Ravens .25
Bills .5
Bengals .25
Jets .75
Vikes .75
Pitt .75
Lions .75
Bears .5
Browns .75
Texans 1.0
49ers .25
Chargers .25
Bills 0.0
Packers .25
Pats .25
Jets 1.0

*I missed the Bears game, so I updated my prediction from 8.5 to 9 wins.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: ArtieChokePhin on May 13, 2022, 01:47:26 pm
The league seriously needs to start scheduling Thursday night games after byes.  It's ridiculous.

The league should get rid of Thursday night football altogether.  Nobody really watches it.   The only exception is Thanksgiving, and those teams should have their bye the Sunday before.   


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on May 13, 2022, 01:55:31 pm
I see 8 1/2 wins here.   ...probably no playoffs.

Here's how I got there

Pats .75
Ravens .25
Bills .5
Bengals .25
Jets .75
Vikes .75
Pitt .75
Lions .75
Browns .75
Texans 1.0
49ers .25
Chargers .25
Bills 0.0
Packers .25
Pats .25
Jets 1.0

This means we added Tyreek Hill and an improved O-Line, better coaching and went backwards? Only foreseeable way this happens is if Tua implodes and gets benched by Week 12. Obviously, nothing is impossible but very unlikely.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 02:03:28 pm
It doesn't mean we went backwards -- it's a result of schedules and other things, but we're not the only team with an offseason and improvements.  After this, I looked on my betting app and they have Dolphins at 8.5 over/under, so I think I'm right on.

Looking at how I've weighted the chances of each game, where do you think I'm wrong?


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 13, 2022, 02:22:29 pm
I see 8 1/2 wins here.   ...probably no playoffs.

Here's how I got there

Pats .75
Ravens .25
Bills .5
Bengals .25
Jets .75
Vikes .75
Pitt .75
Lions .75
Browns .75
Texans 1.0
49ers .25
Chargers .25
Bills 0.0
Packers .25
Pats .25
Jets 1.0
We sweep the Pats, Belichick can't beat Tua, prove otherwise.  The Ravens are one dimensional, and we creamed them with a worse team (on paper).  Herbert crumbles under complicated defenses, see what happened to him when he played the Pats and us last time.  I'd even go so far to say he has almost as many below average to bad games as he does good games, but when he has a good game he wracks up the stats.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: CF DolFan on May 13, 2022, 02:59:30 pm
The league should get rid of Thursday night football altogether.  Nobody really watches it.   The only exception is Thanksgiving, and those teams should have their bye the Sunday before.  
You aren't being serious are you? I couldn't find 2021 but did find this about 2020.

An average of 14.1 million viewers tuned in to watch Thursday Night Football in the United States during the 2020 NFL season, an decrease 1.3 million viewers from the previous year. Ratings for Monday Night Football also decreased in 2020, with the average number of viewers falling to 11.8 million.

That pretty much blows anything else on tv away.

December and January suck if you ask me. Long road trips and cold weather football to close out the year.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on May 13, 2022, 03:26:26 pm
It doesn't mean we went backwards -- it's a result of schedules and other things, but we're not the only team with an offseason and improvements.  After this, I looked on my betting app and they have Dolphins at 8.5 over/under, so I think I'm right on.

Looking at how I've weighted the chances of each game, where do you think I'm wrong?

.75 for both Pats games
.50 for Ravens
.50 for Bengals
.50 for Niners
.50 for Chargers
.50 for Packers

Could be even higher on the Niners if they are starting Trey Lance. It just comes down to Tua, we don't go under 10 wins unless he stinks, we're way too good everyone else on offense now. If he goes backwards, then nothing is off the table.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 04:01:26 pm
You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
I see a 12-5 record there at least lessssgoooooo

Minimum 12 wins there lessssgo!

Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on May 13, 2022, 04:15:11 pm
You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45

20 WINS!!!


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 13, 2022, 04:27:42 pm
Dolphins made some upgrades here and there, but so did every team.  But there is nothing that screams massive upgrade.  The online is still suspect.  You have a better WR, but the QB while accurate at short distances doesn’t have a long ball.   I don’t see any dramatic change good or bad for the Dolphins.  8 -10 wins.  +/- 1 game from last year.  BTW  I have the same prediction for NE +/-1 so 9-11.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: stinkfish on May 13, 2022, 04:32:27 pm
Every year I say that the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl. I’m bound to be right  one of these years, so I’m calling it now. Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl!


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 13, 2022, 07:13:45 pm
You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45
I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 13, 2022, 07:52:33 pm
I was 3 wins off that's not bad. 

3 wins off is very bad.

A 9 win team misses the playoffs, a 12 win team gets the #1 seed.  9 wins and 12 wins are worlds apart.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 14, 2022, 01:32:43 pm
I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 

Three games isn’t much in a MLB season, it is huge in an NFL season.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 15, 2022, 09:21:43 am
I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 

I think this pretty much sums up why fans are bad at gauging their own team.  Other teams have injuries too.  We had a scheduled L in Nola last year and got a free win because they found their QB at the bus stop that week.  You can't just count your misfortunes and discount the misfortunes of others that you benefitted form.  In general, that stuff comes out in the wash.  If Brissett sucks, you should calculate that into your win/loss total, because at some point, your backups are probably going to get some time.

Same with people talking about our improvements -- yes, we improved at WR and we hope to be better there.  But those things always come at a cost and other teams have gotten better in their weakness areas too.  In general, you're going to be roughly the same team with minor improvements year to year.  We are and have been a 9 win team for many years.  Sure, it's possible that we can overachieve to get 12 wins, but it's far likelier that we'll take baby steps to get better slowly.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 15, 2022, 04:07:23 pm
I think this pretty much sums up why fans are bad at gauging their own team.  Other teams have injuries too.  We had a scheduled L in Nola last year and got a free win because they found their QB at the bus stop that week.  You can't just count your misfortunes and discount the misfortunes of others that you benefitted form.  In general, that stuff comes out in the wash.  If Brissett sucks, you should calculate that into your win/loss total, because at some point, your backups are probably going to get some time.

Same with people talking about our improvements -- yes, we improved at WR and we hope to be better there.  But those things always come at a cost and other teams have gotten better in their weakness areas too.  In general, you're going to be roughly the same team with minor improvements year to year.  We are and have been a 9 win team for many years.  Sure, it's possible that we can overachieve to get 12 wins, but it's far likelier that we'll take baby steps to get better slowly.
When I judged 12 wins it was assuming our starting QB wasn't going to miss a quarter of the season.  That's not like losing a RB or a LB.  But whatever, if it makes you feel good to keep harping on it be my guest. 


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 15, 2022, 05:03:51 pm
When I judged 12 wins it was assuming our starting QB wasn't going to miss a quarter of the season.  That's not like losing a RB or a LB.  But whatever, if it makes you feel good to keep harping on it be my guest. 

Tua went 7-5 (1 game better than .500). Brissett went 2-3 ( half a game worse than .500). But yeah if Tua (who when not hurt was slightly better than half) was to go 5-0 for the games he missed your prediction of 12 would have been on the money. 


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Tenshot13 on May 16, 2022, 09:08:13 am
Tua went 7-5 (1 game better than .500). Brissett went 2-3 ( half a game worse than .500). But yeah if Tua (who when not hurt was slightly better than half) was to go 5-0 for the games he missed your prediction of 12 would have been on the money. 
I'm saying I believe Miami would have won 1 or 2 more games with Tua instead of Brissett, and while that is not 12 wins, it's 10 or 11 which is much closer to 12 and I'm not getting Dave necroposting my predictions from last year.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Sunstroke on May 16, 2022, 10:04:37 am

I think Miami wins 10 games this year and makes the playoffs, mainly because I think Tua is ready to take the next step forward, plus their improved WR corps.




Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 16, 2022, 01:11:01 pm
^How many wins gets you in the playoffs with the added game and expanded playoff spot?

I used to feel that 10 games pretty much got you in, barring weirdness.
9 games, you had a shot, but don't count on it.
8 game, you were out, barring weirdness.

I haven't seen a big enough sample size to tell.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Sunstroke on May 16, 2022, 01:13:53 pm

^^^

I think 10 wins gets you in this year, at least with a wild card berth.



Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on May 16, 2022, 02:11:27 pm
^How many wins gets you in the playoffs with the added game and expanded playoff spot?

I used to feel that 10 games pretty much got you in, barring weirdness.
9 games, you had a shot, but don't count on it.
8 game, you were out, barring weirdness.

I haven't seen a big enough sample size to tell.

Granted sample size is small but so far 100% of all teams with 10+ wins made the playoffs.  100% of the 8 wins or less missed the playoffs.  One team was 9-7-1 and made it; of the 9-8 teams 1 out of 3 made it.  So it appears the same so far.  Most of the time 10 wins gets you in, 8 won’t and 9 is a crapshoot. 

BTW In theory you can make the playoffs and win your division with only 3 wins.  (would require all four teams in the division to go 3-14). Also A 17-0 team could be the #2 seed and not get a bye.  A 16-1 team could be a wildcard.  I haven’t worked out if a 15-2 team could miss the playoffs, but under the old system a 14-2 could in theory miss the playoffs. 


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 16, 2022, 03:21:17 pm
Granted sample size is small but so far 100% of all teams with 10+ wins made the playoffs.  100% of the 8 wins or less missed the playoffs.  One team was 9-7-1 and made it; of the 9-8 teams 1 out of 3 made it.  So it appears the same so far.  Most of the time 10 wins gets you in, 8 won’t and 9 is a crapshoot. 

BTW In theory you can make the playoffs and win your division with only 3 wins.  (would require all four teams in the division to go 3-14). Also A 17-0 team could be the #2 seed and not get a bye.  A 16-1 team could be a wildcard.  I haven’t worked out if a 15-2 team could miss the playoffs, but under the old system a 14-2 could in theory miss the playoffs. 

Thanks for this.

It actually really helps me contextualize it.  Seems the same as before.

So, 9 wins maybe.  10 wins and you're probably in.  Dolphins seem to be around 9 wins to me and we seem to be on the cusp of being a playoff team to me, too, so that makes sense.  I think you just gotta hope to steal a win you didn't think you'd get ....just one.  And hold on to the ones you need.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: raptorsfan29 on May 18, 2022, 12:21:28 am
Not to be a nit pick dave but you forgot the bears game in between the lions and browns. It should bump up your rating system to at least a 9. I would think it should be .75 at least


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: Dave Gray on May 18, 2022, 07:45:37 am
^ That's definitely not nitpicking.  If I forgot a game, that's significant.  I'll re-evaluate.


I added the Bears at .5 wins so that brings us to 9 wins.....essentially the same result.  Likely no playoffs unless we can steal a win somewhere.


Title: Re: Dolphins 2022 Schedule
Post by: masterfins on May 26, 2022, 06:33:41 pm
Dolphins made some upgrades here and there, but so did every team.  But there is nothing that screams massive upgrade.  The online is still suspect.  You have a better WR, but the QB while accurate at short distances doesn’t have a long ball.   I don’t see any dramatic change good or bad for the Dolphins.  8 -10 wins.  +/- 1 game from last year.  BTW  I have the same prediction for NE +/-1 so 9-11.

C'mon Miami upgraded RB, WR, OL, and hopefully coaching (especially the O-line).  The defense has really carried them to wins the last two years.  Probably most importantly Miami didn't lose any core players.  The only question mark is Tua - will he be healthy for the entire year AND can he actually be the QB that he was projected to be coming out of college.