The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

If Miami cannot catch Buffalo....

We want the Bengals to win the AFC North, since Miami has the tiebreaker over the Ravens, but not the Bengals.

We want the Patriots to sweep the Jets and the Dolphins to finish the sweep of the Patriots.

Tonight, we want the Broncos to defeat the Chargers.

We want Cleveland to defeat the Ravens
We want Denver to defeat the Jets

0-2

Both games featured controversial calls that went against the team Miami needed to win.

We obviously want the bears to win tonight

Yes, we want the Bears, but honestly, I don't think this stuff matters all that much.

We have the H2H against the Patriots, and if we're going to get anywhere anyway, we're gonna have to beat them again.  If we are worried about the Jets and Patriots, we're dead in the water anyway.

It's really about winning our games and beating teams like the Pats and Jets by 2+ games.

Exactly. It's nice for the Pats and Jets to lose out but unless somehting insane happens, they probably won't be our competition for a playoff spot.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTeXma3Cmk0f93Tll2xVYkSKGIs2LfJDe-z_YlmHOtyG0uzOz3ZEU_XlwDKo-BU3JFcUc4&usqp=CAU)

You do know that the Jets are 5-2 with a game in hand against Miami, right?

It could be in Miami's interest that the Jets win the division, while Miami earns a sweep of Buffalo.   

My thoughts exactly.  Miami will be lucky to beat Detroit and Chicago.  Detroit barely lost a couple games late in the game, and they put a bunch of points on the board.  Even with all the offensive weapons and improved O-line play the offense continues to fail to score points.  I thought this game was going to be different after the fast start, but then they just shit the bed in the second half.

4 of the 5 wins have been against backup QBs, the other was against the now shitty Packers. They have a legit defense, but 5-2 is a mirage, even more so now with Hall out for the year with a torn ACL.

Next 3 games are against the Patriots twice and then the Bills. Let's see how they do.

MIA still controls their own destiny when it comes to NYJ.  If MIA wins all their remaining games, and NYJ wins all their remaining games except the rematch against MIA, MIA would win the AFC East on tiebreakers.

It is still far too early to be trying to guess which teams MIA "wants" to win.  You have no idea where MIA will stand in divisional tiebreakers, which makes it impossible to tell if you want other teams in the conference to be better or worse than the other teams in the AFCE.  For example, if MIA ends up losing to NYJ on tiebreakers, we would want all those other teams to finish BEHIND the Jets in tiebreakers, too.

The Colts benched their starting quarterback with a 3-2-1 record.  Strange

Not really, he sucks. They know what he can and can't do, so they are giving the rookie a shot and hope they found their franchise QB.

And now we can see the futility of trying to gameplan playoff seeding in week 6.

BUF is now 0-2 in the AFC East and MIA controls it's own destiny for the division title.

So much football left, who the hell had the AFC East as the best division in football with 4 playoff teams in it?

We're in good shape right now and the path to the postseason looks clear, but things change constantly. The Eagles are undefeated......the Eagles. Assume nothing.

I want to beat the Bills 3 times in one year.  Then I would like to have a non-stop discussion about Josh Allen's superior armstrength during the offseason.

Beating the bills 3 times in a year on the way to beating the undefeated eagles
In the super bowl is how I would write lol

Josh Allen made a bad throw on 4th down against us that all but ended the game. Where are the stories about his need to be benched?

Allen definitely dirted a pass there at the end.  QBs miss throws.  Lots of reasons.

Apparently there was some miscommunication on that last bad throw and it wasn't just a mechanical mistake.  ...like the guy made a motion upfield and Tua expected a different route or something

Hard for me to get excited anymore after yesterday. 

It just doesn't feel right.

MIA vs. a 19-0 Eagles team in the SB is what I would call an existential nightmare.  It's the kind of game that would make me physically ill to watch.  The upsides (first Dolphins title in nearly 50 years) are not remotely worth the downsides (losing the Super Bowl to the first 20-0 team, and ending the Dolphins' reign as the only undefeated champion).

I would much, much, much rather be watching the Dolphins against an 18-1 PHI team. 

He's actually taken his team to the playoffs.  When Tua does that, I expect every criticism to stop.

I'm willing to bet good money that the criticism doesn't even remotely stop. Most people have this weird tendency to evaluate evidence based on preconceptions.

Tua didn't allow Justin Fields to set an NFL record yesterday. He was busy setting his own Dolphins record.

I'll take splitting with the Bills and Jets and beating the Patriots twice this year and then we'll see where the chips fall. Like to see us finish strong heading into the playoffs for a change.

I hear that, but man the hype.

I have such a hard time even thinking abuot stuff like this because there are so many variables and it would blow my mind to try and decipher them. I have to wait until we closer to the end before I can process it.

Yeah, we just won 2 nail biters against losing teams because our defense sucks. It's fun to talk playoffs but we could be down by 35 points at halftime to the Browns on Sunday, so that would ruin our playoff scneario wishlist.

All four teams  in the AFCE control their own destiny for the division title.

To furthur my point ... it is looking like Josh Allen may miss this week and maybe even more games because of his shoulder. No one saw that coming.

The pass defense needs to improve to only the mediocre level and as long as the pass offense continues at its current level and both sides of the ball play that way in the playoffs (with the pass defense improved), this is your AFC Super Bowl team.  Right now nobody can defend this pass offense.

That could be because you can't so much as breathe on a Miami receiver without a flag.  Just ask the bears.

Sorry, this season is tainted.  Nothing the Dolphins do this year counts for anything.

Howard is mauling receivers without flags.

Our receivers cannot be breathed on without flags.

It's his Elbow, looks to be the UCL. That's the Tommy John one. The fact that there is no update on such a substantial and season defining injury is making me think it won't be good news for him.

He missed 4 games his rookie year for the same injury so there's that. While he did manage to throw the ball 70 yards once after the injury it is much harder to use after the swelling sets in.

They did the MRI yesterday and have not released any results. Just speculating, but to me the only reason to not release results are that they are really bad and they want a second opinion to see if he does need surgery and is out for quite awhile. I'm sure the NFL will be pressuring them soon to release the results so the gamblers know what to do.

I belive you may be right about the injury but I don't think the league will pressure them. Teams use everything in their powere to not let other teams know who is playing whenever given the chance.

Josh Allen appears to have avoided the worst case scenario. He is doubtful for Sunday but it's possible he plays. It's a sprain, so it could affect his throwing motion, not so much a pain tolerance thing.

I'm glad he is not seriously hurt, but.......maybe 3-4 missed games would've been nice to counteract our MASH Unit.

you never know how these things work out .. he may play a bit and re-aggravate this and be out longer than 3-4 games .. so it's a gamble they're taking i think.

After Sunday, their next 2 games are against "lesser" competition. So, if he struggles on Sunday, it would make sense they sit him out to properly heal. Don't want to Matthew Stafford up the joint and sink their season.

If there is any risk of aggravating the injury, I think you need to keep him out - even if that means losing a game. They are 6-2. They can afford to lose a game. They cannot afford to lose their quarterback.

This hasn't been posted in for a while.

Miami is 8-4
The Jets are 7-5
The Patriots and Chargers are 6-6

Next week is almost must-win for Miami to make the playoffs.

This game proved they are not an elite team.  They are going to be lucky to make the playoffs.

How many wins will it take?

9?

10?

11 almost certainly gets them in

I've been using the playoff machine to try to predict Miami's chances of making the playoffs and realistically Miami needs to win at least 2 more games to give themselves a good shot at the playoffs. They should be able to get one of those wins against the Packers at home. The other preferably would be either at home against the Jets in week 18 or at the Chargers next week as both of those teams are potential wild card teams themselves. If not one of those 2 then a win against New England would also help. Any of the other games are just gravy and gives them a better shot at the division, but they aren't really needed to help make the playoffs.

Somebody merge this into the playoff thread

These teams are competing with Miami for the final two spots.

Jets (7-5) 2-2 6-4

Bills, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, Dolphins

Patriots (6-6) 2-2 5-3

Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills

Chargers (6-6) 2-3 4-4

Dolphins, Titans, Rams, Colts, Broncos

Beating the Chargers next week is huge for Miami.

If they lose, their playoff hopes take a HUGE hit

I can't find a scenario where Miami doesn't make the playoffs with 11 wins.

If the Chargers beat Miami next week the Dolphins will likely have to overcome both New England and the Jets to make the playoffs

Not both of them, probably one or the other. There's a good chance that Miami's playoff hopes will come down to that last game against the Jets.

Nope, both.

If the Chargers win next week, they will almost certainly finish ahead of Miami.

To get the last spot, Miami will have to overcome both NE and NYJ

But Miami would still only need to finish with a better record then one of those teams. Since Miami already has a better record then all 3 of those teams they would probably only have to beat one of them to finish with a better record then the team they beat. If they lose to the Chargers you still think the Chargers win their last 3? The chances that the Chargers win their last 3 even if they beat Miami are not that good and unless Miami loses both of the games against the Jets and Patriots, they'd still have a decent shot of making the playoffs. Win one or the other and they most likely finish ahead of one of those teams assuming Miami beats Green Bay. I'm assuming that Miami is going to beat Green Bay. Maybe that's a bad assumption, but if they don't win that game, then there's really nothing to talk about. It becomes a crap shoot for Miami to make the playoffs then.

They would need to finish ahead of BOTH of NE and NYJ if they lose to the Chargers next week.  

There are four division winners

Then, there is Baltimore or Cincy.

That leaves 2 other spots.

If the Chargers win next week, they will likely finish ahead of Miami

That leaves NE, NYJ, and MIA for the last spot

If Miami beats them both, they are almost guaranteed to finish ahead of both of them.

Baltimore is not guaranteed to finish ahead of Miami even if Miami loses next week. Neither are the Chargers. You assuming the Chargers are going to beat the Broncos, Colts and the Rams to finish the year? You are assuming a LOT of wins for them. Maybe the Chargers win 2 of those games, but all 3? Unlikely given the way they are playing lately.

Yes, because Miami is not that good of a team.  They could easily be 4-8 or 5-7.  Their defense is atrocious.  Did you not watch them get carved up by Mr. Irrelevant?

Baltimore has a cupcake schedule the rest of the way.

So do the Chargers

You can't assume Miami will beat Green Bay.  

But you CAN assume the Chargers will beat the Colts, Rams and Broncos with 2 of those games away? Not sure the Chargers defense is any better than Miami's. I think you are overestimating just how good they are and probably also Green Bay. Baltimore hung on for dear life to beat the Broncos 10-9 today. Soft schedule or not they still have to win those games.

If the Bills defeat the Jets next week, Miami should have a clear path in:

Beat the Patriots and the Jets

Where is this coming from?

We have a two game lead over the Chargers.

Even if they beat us, we'd still be ahead of them.  And we will be favored in 3 of 4 remaining games after that.

On top of that, we're just a better team than the Chargers.  They are upside down in point differential and a .500 team.


Barring a complete collapse, even with a loss, the fact that other teams around us lost, pretty much guaranteed us a spot in the playoffs.  The closest team to knock us out is 2 games back and most of these teams are playing each other are are gonna knock each other down anyway.

He's assuming the Chargers win out while we lose at least 3 more games. I don't agree with either scenario.

The chargers and patriots are 6-6

The dolphins are 8-4

If the Chargers win next week, not only do they cut Miami’s lead in half, but they get the head to head tiebreaker, which is effectively a game in hand

This means we would have to finish the season with the same record in our final four games as the chargers.  Not likely

The Patriots are 6-6, but have a much tougher schedule. However, if they lose to the bills, the Dolphins would only have to beat the Jets or Bills to claim tiebreaker over them, even if the Patriots beat the Dolphins.

We are not even close to guaranteed a spot in the playoffs

A couple of points

1) I am considering the team's history.  20 years of cracking when playoff berths are on the line, including the last two seasons

2) You guys think this team is so good.  They are not.  They are literally half a team.  They will be LUCKY to make the playoffs. 5 games could easily have been losses.  They are like the 2013 Patriots, only that team actually had a defense and an out-of-this world kicker whose ability to make long field goals literally flipped several games this year.

If the Chargers beat the Dolphins next week, they only need to finish one game ahead of Miami in the final four games to overtake them.  Given the differences in their schedule, that is almost a certainty.

All three of those teams are horrible

Why not likely?

The Chargers are a .500 team.  They aren't good.  What makes you think they're going 5-0 to end the year?  They're -37 in pt. differential and -5 TDs.


The odds-machines have Miami currently at an 87% chance of making the playoffs.  ...sure, anything can happen and you have to play the games, but unless we completely fall apart, we've got this.
Chargers have a 34% chance of getting in.

Please see my other posts.  Miami has just been lucky this season.  They are not as talented as the Chargers.

I don't what you guys have been watching this season.

It's an uphill fight for Miami

It would have been interesting to put a body camera on X this year to see all the shit he's been getting away with

And the Chargers have been an average team all year. So that means automatic wins in all 3 games? Please. Chargers will be lucky to finish 9-8 even if they do beat the Dolphins this week.

It means it's highly likely they will win all three games.

Anyway you slice it, losing on Sunday is going to severely cripple Miami's playoffs due to the simple fact that of the three teams fighting for the last spot, they have the toughest schedule by far.

Edit:  And the fact that MIAMI IS NOT A GOOD TEAM!!.  They needed the refs help to defeat the 2nd worst team in the entire NFL. 

First off there are about 9 teams fighting for 7 playoff spots not 3 fighting for 1 spot so that alone blows your whole theory out of the water.

Even if you were to consider that 4 teams are going to win playoff spots by being the best in their division, you are seemingly already saying that if Miami doesn't beat San Diego they can't finish first in the AFC east which just isn't true.

Even if you put the 4 current division leaders into the playoffs that still leaves 5 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots and Miami has at least as good of record as any of them and yet for some reason you think if they lose to the Chargers they have less chances than other teams because of their schedule. So lets look at the remaining schedules of all the teams that are not currently leading their division.

Dolphins (8-4): @Chargers, @Bills, Packers, @Pats, Jets
Bengals (8-4): Browns, @Bucs, @Pats, Bills, Ravens
Jets (7-5): @Bills, Lions, Jaguars, @Seahawks, @Dolphins
Patriots(6-6): @Cardinals, @Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins, @Bills.
Chargers(6-6): Dolphins, Titans, @Colts, Rams, @Broncos.

Chargers probably have the easiest schedule, but there's a reason they are 6-6. The Bengal's schedule is arguably harder than the Dolphins schedule. Same with the Jets who have 3 TOUGH road games all against potential playoff teams. The Patriots isn't too bad considering their tougher opponents are at home except for the Bills.

I just don't think you are really looking at this objectively. The Dolphins and the Bengals are in the driver's seat for 1 of the last 3 playoff spots even if Miami loses to the Chargers and still have a decent shot at winning the division.

Now that we can finally all agree Miami is not very good, we know it will take a miracle to make the playoffs

I assume Miami will lose next week

It’s pretty simple from here on out.  After losing to buffalo, they need to win 2 out of three

I've tweaked with the machine

The only realistic chance Miami has of making the playoffs is by defeating the Patriots in week 17 and the Jets in Week 18

Anything else is virtually impossible

If Miami loses next week, and the Patriots and Jets win, Miami falls out of the picture

We want:

The Titans to beat the Chargers

The Lions to beat the Jets

The Raiders to beat the Patriots

Wrong...unless the following link is wrong. It comes down to tie breakers and the NFL Playoff machine doesn't show the tie breaking process for the last wild card spot should Miami lose to NE but beat the Jets and either the Bills or the Packers and end up in a 3 way tie with NE and Jets. It has NE getting the last wild card, but if Miami, NE and Jets are all tied at 10-7 and Miami splits with both NE and the Jets not sure what the proper tie breaker is. According to the below link it's Miami that wins the spot but the NFL playoff machine has NE, but it doesn't say how it came up with that, I suspect it's wrong, one of them is. For NE to even finish at 10-7 they would have to beat the Raiders, Miami and either the Bills or the Bengals which would be pretty impressive. For the Jets to finish 10-7 they would have to beat the Lions, Jags and Seattle which is iffy as well. Even if Miami did finish tied with both NE and the Jets, they would only not make the playoffs if the Chargers finish tied with them or better and that's not guaranteed either. Anyway you slice it, Miami has at least a decent chance to make the playoffs if they beat the Jets and 1 other team to finish 10-7, doesn't have to be NE.

If Miami beats the Jets and they win any of their other 3 games against the Bills, Patriots and Packers they will make the playoffs according to the below link. The Jets game is key. If they win that game, then they only need 1 other win. There's a small possibility that Miami could win JUST the Jets game and make the playoffs, but then the Jets, Patriots and Chargers all have to lose a lot of games.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Odds (https://www.reddit.com/r/miamidolphins/comments/zn93tp/in_terms_of_playoff_odds_the_buffalo_game_is_the/)

If Miami wins all 4 they could win the AFCE.

Mike White is out so it's Zach Wilson against the Lions now. So, either he has a major statement game or sucks as usual. Lions have won 5 of 6 with their only defeat being 3 points to Buffalo, so they SHOULD win this one.

They could also get the number one seed.

In reality, this is a bubble team with an uphill fight.

Tomorrow's game will be a miracle if they win.

Can they win two out of their last three?

I simulated the Chargers winning out.

Then, I simulated wins for the Jets and Patriots in every game except the ones against Miami.

Chargers are 11-6

Jets and Patriots are 10-6

I simulated a win for Miami against Green Bay

In this scenario,

Miami cannot make the playoffs unless they beat both NE and NYJ

If Miami beats the Packers and Jets, the Patriots would have to  lose two games to the Raiders, Bengals, and Bills for Miami to make it.  Not likely.

Anyway you slice it, it boils down to one thing.  Win the last two games.

2 of their last 3 are at home whereas the previous 3 have all been away. There's a reason Vegas gives the home team about an extra 3 points when they are playing at home. On top of that Green Bay is an easier opponent than any of the 3 previous teams. Don't lose faith just yet. If they don't win 2 of their last 6 games, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

It's just hard to have faith when the defense is so bad.  They literally can't stop anybody. 

And like I said in the other thraad, the 17 game schedule may cost Miami the playoffs this season.

Jaguars creeping back in to the race with a victory.

If the Patriots win, things get confusing, because of the potential for a three-way tiebreaker between NYJ, NE, and MIA

I am trying to figure out if Miami can get in just by defeating the Jets week 18.

They can.

It would require:  The Patriots losing to the Bengals and the Bills.

The Jets losing to either the Seahawks or Jaguars

Patriots get into the field goal range.  Can the Raiders stop them and give themselves a chance to answer?

RAIDERS WIN!!!!!!

That was the craziest shit I have ever seen.

We need to win out and San Diego and Baltimore to lose a game so we can go into the playoffs as the #5 seed. That would pit us against either Tennessee or Jax if they somehow pull it out.

Yes, it's been way too long since we won a playoff game and going through the Titans is probably the best route.

Miami could actually make the playoffs if they win today even if they lose the remaining 2 games. All it would take is the Jets losing to Seattle next week and the Patriots losing to Buffalo the following week, both very possible.

Here's how it stands, barring an utter collapse by the Chargers

Dolphins (8-7)

If they win out = they are in
If they beat New England and lose to the Jets = they make it if the Seahawks beat the Jets
if they lose to New England and beat the Jets = they make it if New England loses to Buffalo
if they lose two = they are out

Patriots (7-8)

if they win out = they are in
if they lose to Miami and beat Buffalo = they are out
if they beat Miami and lose to Buffalo = They make it if the Jets lose to the Seahawks and beat the Dolphins
if they lose two = they are out

Jets (7-8)

if they win out = The Patriots would have to lose to either Buffalo or Miami
if they lose to the Seahawks and beat the Dolphins = They are out
if they beat the Seahawks and lose to the Dolphins = They are out
if they lose two games = They are out 

If the Dolphins lose next week, I wonder when the games would be aired next week?

New England could be facing the Dolphins without Tua and a Bills team resting their starters.

Miami still has a 56% chance of making the playoffs, if they win just one of their remaining games they most likely will be in.  The question is can Teddy Bridgewater summon enough will to win a game?  Or can the defense regain their form of last year and win the game for the team?

The problem is that unless Tua is ready for the playoffs and I don't think he is, the chances of going on the road and winning a playoff game are about 0%.

The way he was playing, concussion or not, means it may have not mattered.

Truthfully, we can win both games with Bridgewater as long as he isn't complete garbage and McDaniels adjusts for his skillset. Short throws to the fastest guys in the NFL should be what we do.

Yeah and the defense knows this and is going to take that away. You can't win games like that. Tua got better when they opened up the playbook and started to take shots deep which opens up the underneath game. You can't have one without the other. No, they need to use the same offense they have been. Bridgewater can make all these throws. Bridgewater is going to need to adjust to the offense, not the other way around. A good teacher can teach you how to do it. Now maybe tweak a few plays here and there for Teddy, but for the most part teach him how to run it. It can be done. What's easier? Teach 1 guy how to play the role or teach 10 others to change their role? I think it's easier to teach that one guy.

I don't expect Teddy to be the same as Tua, but he doesn't have to be the same or better he just has to do his part. Let the other guys pick up the slack. They can. The Jets and Pats both have their share of QB problems. How about relying on our D to play well against their QB and not worry so much about what our QB is doing?

Oh I agree 100%.  At this point they only win a playoff game if the defense gets a pick 6 and a couple other turnovers in FG range.

Replace win a playoff game with get to the playoffs, and you've got a more accurate statement.

Actually, you don't, because don't forget, the other team would have several other possessions.

It's going to take a miracle to get in, but miracles do happen.

playoffstatus still has us at 57 percent chance of making it.

How do they come up with those numbers?

How will they flex the games?

Here's how I would do it.

Play the Dolphins Jets game at 1

Then, play the Bills-Patriots game at 4 along with the LV-KC game

MIA has to beat a team with a worse record, along with NE losing to a team with a MUCH better record, in order for MIA to get in.

Steelers win hurts New England’s chances.

Here's where things stand for the Number 7 seed.

Patriots win, they get it

Patriots lose and Miami wins, Miami gets it.

Patriots and Miami lose, and Steelers win, Steelers get it

Patriots, Miami, Steelers, and Jaguars lose, Jaguars get it

Patriots, Miami, Steelers, and Titans lose, Patriots get it.

It would seem that the way to flex the games would be NE-Buf at 1, then NYJ-MIA and BAL-CIN at 4.

that would be utterly stupid, because if NE wins then nobody is going to watch MIA-NYJ.  Both games at same time or the Buf-NEP is the latter game.

So, no scenario where we lose and get in?

Guess we have to win and hope that Buffalo doesn't piss away the #1 seed in the conference then.

We’ve known this for a very long time now

If by some miracle we get in, we will probably start Skylar Thompson. That's just tragic.

I'm kinda hoping that New England wins and saves us the embarrasment of getting blown out in another meaningless playoff game. Probably save Tua from himself in the process.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Playoffs+Mora&&view=detail&mid=B3D43E4A60C922AC915FB3D43E4A60C922AC915F&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3F%26q%3DPlayoffs%2BMora%26FORM%3DVRPATC%26form%3DVDMHRS


This is where we're at.

Honestly, this would be my preference. Beat the Jets and regroup for next year. Fix what you can there’s still hope with Tua and a second year coach, or we figure out something better hell maybe McDaniel wants Jimmy G idk….

But if we win and go to KC or Buffalo and get blow out on national tv…think I’d rather have the Jets win and go home.

I’d love to be wrong and we back into the playoffs, I’d be happy being COMPETITIVE against the number #1. If we can get back to mid season we can beat anyone but more likely we just get our ass kicked

Looks like they're smarter than you are.