The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I am all over the place and can't decide.

So many things wouldn't surprise me.
I can see Trump winning, but I also see a world where Trump is unable to grow in popularity.  If you like him, you like him by now.  If you don't, he's not winning you over.  So I think a lot of it will have to do with how many people run against him.

Desantis is an unknown so I think that makes him popular.  But he's not a good speaker and he isn't quick on his feet.  He doesn't have the charisma Trump has.  So, it's a tough lane.  Does he just let Trump attack him and call him names, hoping Trump fades or does he fight back?  I don't even know what's best for him.

And then there's whatever "never Trump" guy rises to the top...and it's a question of how far they go.



Assuming everyone who can run does, I see three lanes:

1) Trump
2) Not Trump, but trying to capture Trump.  So, basically, "I'm Trump without the baggage".
3) Anti-Trump.  "Trump is a threat to Democracy.  Save the Republican party, etc."

There is no #3 yet.  It ain't Haley.  ...she has no lane.  It ain't Pence.  But someone will probably step into this lane.

I try to avoid the political threads but I don't think I am saying anything that would spark an argument so I will say it will likely be DeSantis.

The media and grifters are 100% behind getting Trump nominated again for the sake of ratings and their own careers, but he isn't as sharp as he once was. Whether that is due to time away from the limelight or being surrounded by the worst people in existence(Kushner and Hannity), the end result is the same. His vaccine stance is so unpopular with his own voters he might as well come out for abortion until the moment of birth.

The biggest strike against him is he now has a resume and can't run on promises where DeSantis can. He kept a lot of his promises and in general his voters were happy with his performance as POTUS, but his 2020 was an unmitigated disaster and he couldn't build the wall completely despite having total GOP control for 2 years. He let the government have too much power during Covid and DeSantis was the polar opposite. That is what voters will remember in the primaries. Trump's ego can't let him forget that he was never thanked for the vaccines so he keeps pushing them until he gets it. Of course, his base doesn't want them and Democrats wouldn't praise him if he rescued their babies from a burning building, so he's screwed there. No thanks for Donny coming anytime soon.

Trump can still win but "Ron DeSanctimonious" and "Meatball Ron" are terrible nicknames. If that's the best he's got, he will "gracefully" bow out halfway through the primaries and endorse Ron in exchange for public praise or maybe even some cabinet position. Ron can't win without the hardcore Trump base so he can't go too hard on him during the primaries. He needs Trump to endorse him but not run rallies and steal the spotlight for himself. A tightrope act.

Desantis may not want to run because of how good he is doing in Florida

Here's a question  Were there mail in ballots before 2020?

It's an uphill fight for the GOP anyway because they've lost so many more people to Covid than the Democrats have.

The Democrat strategy since 2020 seems to be playing possum.  You don't see Democrats commenting on social media.

It's odd.  The Electoral College is literally the stupidest invention in history.  It means my vote means nothing.  However, without it, the Republicans would not stand a chance.

Since the first George Bush, the Republicans have one just ONE popular vote and THREE electoral colleges, which should have actually been two.  One, in 2004, was by just one state.

Desantis is popular because of his fight against woke culture.

^ Please stay on topic.

I go back and forth on this over and over again.  There seems to be a unique love affair with Trump.  I don't think that Desantis has that special sauce.  However, I think that the longer than Desantis can stay undefined, people will imprint on him.

And ultimately, I don't think that Trump can win a general election.  Desantis can.  I don't think I have some super-knowledge that the right doesn't have so they must understand this as well.

It probably comes down to money.  I think the establishment and the money will not go to Trump again.  And his rally cry seems to still be about rigged votes from the 2020 election, which I don't think many people care about anymore.

The backroom deal mentioned above is possible, but not for a cabinet position -- presidents don't go on to become some other job working under another president.  Zero chance of Trump working under anyone else.  But a deal to keep the Feds off of his back is likely.

I want to pick the field, not because I have someone in mind, but just because I think that so much can and will happen to either Trump or Desantis in the coming years, including deciding not to run.   But I just can't put my head there.

On account of electability, I think Desantis is the likeliest outcome.

The love affair with Trump was because everyone was so sick of "real politicians". So much so that a billionaire celebrity born into wealth was more relatable to the common man than anyone else running. Another part  is people "growing up politically" with certain politicians. A lot of people became more politically aware when Obama was elected President, hence their admiration for him. Same as Trump, a lot of people who didn't usually vote or gave up with politics came back for him and that creates a "first love" level of devotion.


No GOP can win a general election until they realize that mail in voting is here to stay, like it or not. So, until they embrace that and go door to door collecting ballots where it's legal, it just won't matter. I feel that DeSantis realizes this since he won by so much in Florida in part due to mail in restrictions and won't let it take him by surprise in 2024. I don't feel like Trump learned that lesson yet and would lose a general.

People still care about election integrity and 2020, but they are sick of Trump's whining about it. After all, basically his whole base thought some shenanigans were going to happen during that election and he didn't do anything about it, so whining about it just exposes how dumb he was to let it happen. DeSantis actually did something about election integrity, which is why he won by so much in November. No ballot harvesting. Another issue where he crushes Trump head to head.


You're probably right about the cabinet position thing, but I feel like Trump is addicted to being heard and he would want something in return to admit defeat to Ron. Don't know what that is right now, maybe just some public promises about FBI reform or whatnot. He dosen't have to worry about the Feds, they don't have anything on Trump and any legal action makes him stronger. Nothing unites the base like going against the FBI.

There really is no other option depsite what the media will try to say, it's Ron or Don. The rest are just there to use campaign donations as money laundering. Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo have as much of a shot at winning as Adolf Hitler does as Prime Minister of Israel. In terms of Mike Pence, he is polling behind Euthanizing Puppies.

Where I disagree with this is that the people you're naming are trying to be Trump-lite.  That's already Desantis.  The spot is taken.

There is room for a never Trumper.  I don't know who that will be.  Maybe someone like Larry Hogan.

I would combine #3 to include both "never Trumpers" and the folks ended their support for Trump ~1/6/21. 

Liz Chenney and Adam Kinzinger occupy the same lane as Larry Hogan and Mitt Romney. 

I think there will be NeverTrumpers on the ballot but they have no shot. Their influence is propped up by the media, the GOP base is no longer the party of endless wars. That's why Mitch McConnell is so unpopular(not to mention the #1 reason we need term limits but that is off topic). Liz Cheney got stomped in her own primary, she has no chance in a general election.

For the record, I like Ron but I'm not a disciple. I just think he has a better shot at the nomination than Trump due to his demeanor and current popularity. People tolerated Trump's humor and ego when things were going well. No one wants to hear nicknames and self absorption during a recession. Humor is not a valuable tool when people can't feed their kids due to inflation.

Disagree.  Liz Cheney could win a general election, her problem is the primary.  Her *ONLY* chance would be if nobody opposes Biden on the democratic side and she could pick up a few early victories buoyed by Democrats in states with open primaries, but that is unlikely. 

How could she win a general election if her own party hates her? Whatever Democrats like her now wouldn't vote for her in a general, they would vote for Biden or another person if Biden wasn't running. She would be looking at a Reagan/Mondale type of beating.

None of the candidates in the GOP can possibly beat Trump.  They are all terrified of him and tripping over their own feet to praise him, while he lobs bomb after bomb in their direction.

If taking the high road and refusing to engage Trump was a viable tactic in a GOP primary, Jeb Bush would have been the nominee in 2016.  It seems like no one in the GOP has learned that very obvious lesson, and they are all determined to repeat the experience.

The extremists in her own party hate her, but a run of the mill republican would choose her over Biden.  But yeah, democrats are going to vote for Biden over her. 

I think you misunderstand the GOP base because you are from the other side. No one in the GOP likes her except the NeverTrumpers. Just being a Republican in a Presidential election means she will still get tens of millions of votes, but she would probably lose 40 states in total.

DeSantis is doing fine right now by basically ignoring Trump and letting him act a fool. Trump is still an incredibly popular person within his own base, but it is waining. Attacking Trump and using media talking points is a death sentence in a primary, which is why no one else stands a chance aside from "Meatball Ron". Like with all bullies, Trump can be defeated by respectfully pointing out the wrong things he did, that way if they win the nomination they won't lose his base since he never attacked him personally.

Jeb had the misfortune of being a legacy politician and people were just tired of it. The establishment wanted him as the nominee and everyone knew it, which is why he was attacked the most. It will be a very long time before you get a guy like Jeb as the nominee again.

So she would get very-little-to-none of the Democratic vote, and some portion of the Republican vote.  That would be... fewer votes than Trump, who lost to Biden.  I don't see how that means she could win a general.

DeSantis isn't "doing fine"; he's just the closest loser.  In the winner-take-all GOP state primaries, a close loss is exactly the same as a blowout loss.  DeSantis will never be able to actually pass Trump without taking him head on, and the moment he does that, Meatball Ron's support will crater.

And what are the "wrong things Trump did" that are not "media talking points"?
You're definitely not referring to any of his multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, right?  Nor are you referring to his attempted extortion of Ukraine that he was impeached over, or his attempt to overthrow the government on 1/6 that he was impeached for again.  You're not referring to his world-worst COVID death count, or being the only US president in recorded history to have a net loss of jobs over his presidency.  Hell, you're not even referring to his calls to assault the press, or his fawning praise of Putin, Xi, and Kim.

So what "wrongs" remain for DeSantis to respectfully call out Trump over?  You might as well be trying to describe a four-sided triangle.  The GOP has been fully converted to a Trumpist cult, and ANY direct criticism of him will be seen as treason.  This is exactly the reason why all of them are terrified of taking him on!

Maybe we should not consider DeSantis a candidate until he confirms he is going to run.

Playing possum is an effective strategy, as the Democrats have shown, but he actually needs to run run if he wants to be elected.

Without mail-in ballots, Trump wins easily in 2024

With them, he does not stand a chance.  

I agree.  I'm just using that as a phrase.  What I mean is someone who will openly say that they will not support him even if he's the chosen nominee.

Absentee ballots go back to the 17th century and predates the country, it wasn't widespread until the election of 1864.  I voted by mail in 1986 and 1988.

Please don't allow the discussion to get sidetracked into boogeymen dropping massive dumps of mail-in ballots.  We're talking about the GOP primary.

Well as of today I say it’s Trump, he wins in a crowded field. Now the only question is does the rest of the field drop out before South Carolina ( or Super Tuesday) and let him go head to head with the closest competitor? ( likely Meatball at this point )..


But so much can happen before then, something major could happen in this country or someone can come out of nowhere and capture the GOP imagination which is as easy as entertaining a toddler.

I don't see a crowded field happening.

I don't think there's money to support it.  In the past, there were lots of open lanes, you had your fiscal conservative, your religious conservative, your libertarian, your establishment, your tea-party guy, etc.   But this is a weird cycle because Trump is essentially running as an incumbent that's getting challenged, even though he technically isn't one.  I think you're in for a two horse race, with maybe a 3rd person after the initial dust settles.


I have a feeling we'll learn pretty quick what's possible though.  Trump isn't gaining support.  So, it's just a question of how much he has when it gets down to actual voting.

Trump is still leading the polls, and he's barely started attacking potential rivals.  Nothing has changed.

We will know soon enough. Haley is already in, Pence is likely to run,  meatball is likely to run..while not crowded as 16 or 20’ for the democrats it would still divide it enough, and I expect Hawley and Flynn might jump in.

Either way none of them are good. I wish I could feel better with Trump not being as strong and having a real shot of losing, but any of these people scares me to death.

None recent that I have seen. Ever time he attacks DeSantis his popularity in the party goes down.

From NPR just today ...

By a 54% to 42%, Republicans and independents who lean their direction said they think they would have a better chance in 2024 with someone other than Trump. That's actually a slight improvement for Trump, considering 35% in November said Trump would give them the best chance at winning.

Still, the percentage saying they would be better off with someone else hasn't budged. And there are clear cleavages — voters with college degrees, ones who make more than $50,000 a year and parents with children under 18 are far more likely to say they'd be better off with someone else, by 20 points or more in some cases.

That means a majority of Republicans are looking around for someone else, and the very people who think they have less of a chance with Trump seem to have DeSantis in the sights.

Sadly  for the GOP ... if Trump wins the nomination there are many who voted for him previously that will no longer and he didn't have enough to win last time.

I heard someone from the GOP that everyone other than Donald and Ron are running for vice president or cabinet staff and they know it.

That's not what I've seen.  From Friday, 2/17:

DeSantis approval drops in GOP primary: poll (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3863645-desantis-approval-drops-in-gop-primary-poll/)

First, that sounds like Trump is improving, solidifying his lead on the nomination.
Second, I'd like to see what those numbers were in 2016, when there was significantly more concern about Trump's electability yet he easily smashed the entire GOP primary field.

As of this morning (https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/):

Trump 50%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 6%
Haley 6%

This... is not close.
If DeSantis announces his candidacy, Trump is going to humiliate him; as I said before, Scott Walker 2.0.

I think it's just too early to read polls.  It can go either way, but once this all becomes official and we see them on a debate stage -- there's questions of how much shade the GOP will throw at Trump.  Will he be accused of trying to overthrow the government by his own party?  And will they say he isn't fit for office?

That's what it will take.  It's hard to kiss his ass, talk about how great he is, and then have a strategy that says "but vote for me instead."

at this point in polling 8 years ago Jeb Bush was the prohibitive favorite.

I haven't been seeing a 20% difference anywhere. In all the polls I see DeSantis comes out on top 7-12 percent depending on the poll. It's when you add in the other candidates that DeSantis is below Trump because DeSantis' get split while Trump does not and in none of them is Trump double digits higher.

All of this is pretty positive for the gov conseidering he hasn't even annnounced or hinted at a run.

Today from Politico

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2023/02/23/poll-shows-edge-for-desantis-in-clash-with-trump-00084113

Lead for DeSantis — One new national poll of Republican primary voters from WPA Intelligence shared with Playbook, put DeSantis ahead of Trump, 40 percent to 31 percent, even when a long line of other Republicans such as former vice president Mike Pence were included. That lead for the GOP governor jumps dramatically to 55 percent to 37 percent in a direct DeSantis-Trump matchup.

I heard Tim Scott is going to run.

He is using the words "return to civility" which seems to be a shot at Trump.  But when asked on Tucker what policy positions he would have different than Trump, he didn't list any and basically said how great Trump was.  In other words, it seemed like he was gonna take lane 3, but instead is getting into the crowded Trump-lite lane with Haley.  So, there's no path there for him.

CF said that these people are running for VP, and while a fair assessment, it doesn't explain Pence.  I don't know how he's polling, but everyone hates Pence.  Trump isn't going to choose him again, the Trumpers tried to kill him, the GOP base doesn't like him.  The moderates don't like him.  I don't see what he's thinking.

It hard to say about Pence. People at this level, as well as celebrities, live in their own bubble and it's hard to try and out guess their perspective. Pence is loved by the Christian Right so maybe he thinks that would help him in another VP role. Hard to imagine he thinks he can win or would even want to work with Trump again.

I honestly feel the more the rest of the GOP gets to know Ron the more they will like him. He's become a rock star here in Florida where we do know him.

Just saw this

Ron DeSantis would win 2024 Republican primary between nine GOP rivals and would beat Trump by 24% in a head-to-head showdown, new poll of GOP voters reveal

(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/02/24/11/68027729-11787659-image-a-6_1677237400324.jpg)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11787659/New-poll-Ron-DeSantis-wins-9-candidate-GOP-primary-field-40-support.html

Fuck him then. No swing voter considers anyone that doesn't head on Trump. Republicans better hear this message. I said when Hillary lost the  Democrats went with the next person up strategy and lost.  I suggested Biden would be better for that fight and got laughed at. I also said Obama would be the first serious black candidate and was laughed at because others had been in the primary.

I think CF would describe himself as a "DeSantis supporter."
CF has consistently stated that he strongly wants DeSantis to avoid taking on Trump directly, for fear of alienating Trump fans.
But why should DeSantis care about alienating Trump fans, who are ostensibly voting for Trump?  This tells you everything you need to know about the true state of today's Republican Party.  If DeSantis can't win the primary without Trump fans then he cannot win the primary, full stop.

For those who would say DeSantis is trying to preserve Trump fans' support in the general election: no matter how DeSantis were to beat Trump, if Trump loses the primary, he will definitely, 100%, without question try to turn his supporters against DeSantis in the general.  If you don't believe this, you are delusional.  Trump will be holding weekly rallies screaming that Corrupt Ron and the Deep State Swamp rigged the primary against him, all the way to Election Day.

The fact that DeSantis has not realized this and is refusing to bow out of the primary is a significant mark against his intelligence.

LOL ... I don't think it's a secret I'm a big DeSantis supporter.   There are some Trump supporters who would support Deantis in the election. My inlaws are huge Trump fans and want him back but they would support DeSantis if he wins. While I think some people are Trump or no one I really believe most would support the GOP nominee over Biden. In fact I would say most of the Trump supporters want Trump first and then DeSantis to win.

I would love if this were true, but this seems like something from the liberal wish list.

I wouldn't put it past Trump to do this, but the truth is that he would be in a considerably stronger position in his legal fights if the justice department were controlled by one of his own.  The pressure on Desantis from his supporters to lay off of Trump would be huge.

Trump would be incredibly stupid to lose to Desantis and then attack him and make him lose.

Trump is staring down criminal indictments in NY and GA.  DOJ can't help there.

Why yes, it would be incredibly stupid for Trump to put petty personal spitefulness and his own selfish ego over his long-term best interests.
I don't think that's the counterpoint you imply it is.

---

In other news, Jeb Bush has thrown his support (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3876160-jeb-bush-hopeful-desantis-will-run-for-president/) behind DeSantis.  Perhaps Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney should also endorse Li'l Ronnie!  That will surely clinch the nomination.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-desantis-top-2024-republican-preference.amp

Yesterday from fox, still a sizable lead for Mango Mussolini

Fuck Fox News and anyone that supports them. The head of the company admitted they spread false information. They have lost all credit as a News organization (I've shared for years it is commentary).

DeSantis has taken the pandemic FAR less seriously than Trump.

Florida has the eighth-highest Covid rate per-capita in the USA

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

Yet, Trump has been bashed for his handling of the pandemic.

DeSantis has been widely praised for his handling of it. 

I hear ya...and agree completely, but c'mon...this really can't come as any surprise to you at this point.

For sure it’s nothing but a propaganda outlet but i the poll is still valid for republican nomination purposes.

A lot can happen but Trump has a sizable cult and it’s going to be a challenge for anyone to break his hold.

Just to clarify  ... he did not endorse DeSantis but was praising him. He said DeSantis would be a “great alternative” to Trump and that he has a “proven track record” and “great platform” to run on if he chose to jump into the race for president.

When asked if it was the right time for DeSantis to run for higher office, Jeb's verbatim response was, “Who better to do it than someone who’s been outside of Washington, who’s governed effectively, who I think has shown that Florida can be a model for the future of our country."

That is not Jeb cutting a commercial saying, "I formally endorse Ron DeSantis for President of these United States," but it is an endorsement.

Nikki Haley

Where's the voting option for "who f*ckin' cares?"

Not that it matters but he clarified his point later ...

“I was praising, not endorsing," the former governor said to Politico after his comments were taken as an all-out endorsement for DeSantis, who has not yet announced if he intends to run for the White House this cycle.
...
“He’s been a really effective governor. He’s young," Bush said. "I think we’re on the verge of a generational change in our politics — kind of hope so. I think it’s time for a more forward-leaning, future-oriented conversation."

Fair enough.

The Young Turks today said they believe that Trump would likely defeat Biden in the 2024 election.

They did not provide any basis for this claim.  I find it hard to believe given that Trump lost in 2020, and that his candidates and his party did so poorly in the 2022 midterms.

The Republicans gained 9 seats in the 2022 midterms.

The Democrats gained 41 in 2018

If things keep going as badly as they have been, could Trump overtake Biden?

D4L, this thread is about the 2024 GOP nominee, which has nothing to do with Joe Biden.  Start a new thread if you want to discuss Biden, or midterm seats, or whatever else.

National polling has Trump up and DeSantis down.

However state polling isn’t so great for Trump ( at least in a head to head against Ron ) but…Trump is at 58% in a NH poll this week.

Until I see otherwise I’ll never count Trump out. Media like FOX is gonna go in for DeSantis so we’ll have to see how that plays out but as of this update I still lean Trump getting it.

Trump is currently hitting Tiny D (some people are calling him Tiny D, many people, I don't know about that name, Tiny D) on his votes to cut Social Security and Medicare.  This is exactly the kind of issue that the Grown Up Republicans support Ronnie on but Trump can activate his base with, as Social Security and Medicare are reasonably significant issues to working class Republicans.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1635453812864417792

Trump doesn't give one shit about the GOP or any kind of ideology.  He will burn the whole thing down to give himself a better shot.  That's what makes him dangerous to both his friends and his enemies.

^^^ This.

Am I the only one who rolls their eyes everytime anyone says we are running out of money for SS and Medicare and it will cease to exist in a few years? I mean, we pull hundreds of billions out of our arse to fund other countries but millions of our elderly are going to be kicked to the streets? I don't so.  

Is that a bad thing?  Both of those program are abused and people exploit them, so maybe this will cut out some of that cheating

wrong

I'm surprised to say that we agree here.

The idea of SS or Medicare "running out of money" is like saying our military could run out of money: it's a choice, and whichever politicians happen to be in office when that choice is made will soon find themselves looking for a new job.

I don't see how that means you agree with him. 

He's bashing Biden for sending all the money overseas.

People seem to be okay with him doing that. 

There is a happy medium where we could actually fund our military, SS, and Medicare. And actually, it's not a happy medium, it's common sense. We shouldn't be paying other countries to be our allies and calling it aid. And we shouldn't be involved in the Ukraine by financing their issues either. The US is like the idiot celebrity going to the strip club with a bag full of money and making it rain for attention. Grade A retarded shit

I'm not bashing Biden at all. Plenty of money goes out of this country regardless of who is in power.

I remember when everyone complained about the citizens who were working the system to live for free. If all we had to worry about was our own people mooching off us then our taxes would be so much lower ... hahaha.

I think some foreign aid is acceptable. We want some countries to act in certain ways. and using a carrot is probably much more affordable than using a stick.

I think we could fund universal healthcare, universal college and keep a strong social safety net for everyone at the cost of about 10% of the annual military budget.

It's all about the choices we make and the priorities we have as a nation. Currently our national priorities are whatever the large corporations and lobbyists tell our politicians they want. We need to find a way to solve that before we can realistically fix anything.

Getting back on topic:

This "Don't attack Trump" strategy cannot last through a single debate, or it will be exposed as the dumbest idea ever.  All Trump has to do is get on the stage and say, "I'm the only candidate that everyone here agrees did a great job in office.  Everyone else disagrees about the rest of their opponents, and I say they ALL did a terrible job.  So why should any Republican vote for someone other than me?"

You can't beat Trump while kissing his ass.  It's not possible.

Agreed, but the timing matters.

I think that some candidates are just staying quiet for now and waiting for the right time to pounce.  I don't know how well that will work, but I think they're hoping that the other candidates make "want that smoke" first and avoid the fallout.

This is sadly true.

Money in politics is the one thing that hurts every other issue.  We have the resources to solve these problems, but there is so much money to be made in continuing for it to be a problem.

I fully expect DeSantis to go back on Trump when the time is right. As it is now he's in Trump's head and hasn't even declared. It's kind of funny and I know it isn't gaining Trump any supporters.

It sounds like this strategy is for DeSantis to generate a bunch of film talking about how great the Trump presidency was, and then sometime next year (?) try to say that it was actually bad...?  This is a terrible plan.

Again: you cannot run against Trump without running against the Trump presidency.  It doesn't make sense! And the longer you delay taking him on, the worse it will be.

The idea that it somehow helps DeSantis for Trump to mercilessly shit on him for the next 9 months is just crazy.

I dont think it will be 9 months. DeSantis is very intelligent. I'm sure he knows how to pay respect and point out the flaws as he does it. I could be wrong but I really don't see Trump flustering him like he was able to do others.

CF, y'all are in denial.  Badly.

Try to think forward to whatever point in time DeSantis decides to start defending himself against Trump.  Do you really think you're going to be glad that he waited to do what he was always going to have to do anyway?

DeSantis isn't holding back from attacking Trump because of some sort of 4-dimensional chess.  He's holding back because he's terrified of Trump.  And that terror will not decrease as time goes on; it will only get worse.  Trump is working every day to turn his followers against DeSantis and make him a hated figure in MAGA world.  Today, there are a decent number of Republicans that like both of them, but after 3 months... 6 months... 9 months, Trump will be working to wedge that group apart day by day.  By the time Trump is done, every Trump supporter will absolutely despise DeSantis.

Don't get me wrong: I'm cheering.  My ideal outcome is for Tiny D to absorb Trump's body blows for several more months, eventually declare for & win the GOP primary, and have Trump sabotage his support with "Rigged Ron" until Election Day.  But it seems you are fighting for the same outcome, which is bizarre.

This is literally the 2016 strategy.  It can't work because they're all cowards and want someone else to go first, but no one does.
None of them were willing to make a move until it was too late, and the feeble last-minute attempts (Rubio insulting Trump's baby-sized hands, or Cruz's fake tough guy act) were too little, too late.

edit: The irony is that none of the Republicans have learned the actual lesson of Trumpism.  Republican voters do not want decency or respectability; they want dominance politics, pure and simple.  The Republican that can defeat Trump is the one that is willing to go at Trump as hard as they would go at a Democrat.  But, again, they're all cowards so it won't happen.

Rubio ALMOST figured this out in 2016 when he went with the "tiny hands" insult, but he flinched; he wasn't willing to see it through.  When Trump was on stage at a nationally-televised presidential debate bragging about how big his dick is, Rubio should have said, "That's not what the porn star you cheated on your pregnant wife with said."  The only way for a Republican to beat Trump is to go so hard at him that Trump flinches.  (Unfortunately, when the GOP does figure out that this is the end-stage of Trumpism - always go harder than your opponent is willing to - it will basically mark the end of the Republican Party as one that is even compatible with democracy a democratic republic.)

I agree.  It didn't work for them them.

They're hoping that this is a different, more known version of Trump.  Before, the thought was that if they didn't take him seriously, he'd fizzle out as a circus act.

Now, they know he's a threat, but they're hoping that he won't be seen as electable.

They could both be wrong, but that's the strategy.



Desantis was basically the "not Trump" selection of the party pretty early on.  It's weird then, that he's trying to be Trump.  I don't know, man.   This could all blow up in the GOP's face again but we'll see.

LOL ... I see this from a completely different perspective. DeSantis isn't afraid of Trump. He's playing him. So far Trump looks desperate and DeSantis has yet to even announce anything. DeSantis is in an entirely different position than everyone who was flailing to get the nom last time. I haven't spent one second thinking "why hasn't Ron gotten into the race or said bad things about Trump?"  I completely buy into his game. In fact, if DeSantis decides not to run and is just letting Don simmer I trust he knows what he is doing.

There's a part of Desantis we just don't know yet.  He doesn't appear to be particularly quick on his feet.  So, when he's attacked in the moment, like on a debate stage, it will be interesting.  I'm actually excited to see the fight.

DeSantis is just Scott Walker, for literally all the same reasons.  I'm not sure why you guys don't see it.
Maybe because you live in FL instead of WI?

I'm curious why you say that? I've seen him kill the media whenever they try and get smart with him. It's why they rarely do.

I see him not sounding particularly smooth and he gets flustered and kinda comes across as grumpy.  ...like when he told that kid to take his mask off and looked all frustrated, or when he was asked if he was gonna run for President and he just stared there like a weirdo.

I think Trump is going to rattle his cage.  It might work, it might not.  But Desantis isn't smooth.  Trump always seems like he doesn't give a shit which works in his favor in a debate setting.

The way in which he engages the media is tailor-made for you, the Republican voter: he goes into the standard tactic of "Well, I'm not going to comply with your liberal narrative and say what the wokesters want me to say."  Not only does this work wonders with the base, it doesn't really even matter what the topic is: any question from "Trump is saying you are a pedophile" to "Your administration has banned discussion of Rosa Parks" can be answered with the Liberal Narrative speech, and Republican voters will cheer and clap.  (Again, this is exactly the same strategy that Scott Walker used in WI.)

But one arena where this can't be deployed effectively is in a GOP primary, because your opponents are not going to let you just evade questions without answering.  And DeSantis has no other card in his hand.

It finally came to a head today (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1637826603978838016).

When asked if he would cooperate in extraditing Trump to NY if he is indicted and arrested on Tuesday (as expected), DeSantis instead tried to deflect with some BS about "Soros-funded prosecutor."  But there is no audience for that!  The Trumpists will accept nothing less than full fealty, and everyone else hears "Soros" and thinks you're talking about the Rothschilds or the other secret Jewish masters.  (DeSantis also threw his first semi-direct dig at Trump: "Look, I don't know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I can't speak to that.")

So predictably, DeSantis is getting absolutely BURIED by Trumpists:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrrFEMfWYAAfVKZ?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrrRmY-WYAU4qqE?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrrWEzzWYAwQ6sQ?format=jpg&name=small)

https://twitter.com/AccountableGOP/status/1637849183792103425
https://www.rawstory.com/steve-bannon-ron-desantis-donald-trump/

This was, and has always been, the only possible result.  DeSantis' poll numbers will crater as Trump drives the hardest of wedges between MAGA and what remains of the GOP.

DeSantis trying to score points by banning the Covid vaccines in Florida

I'm curious, do you explain things badly or do you lie or do you not comprehend or do you believe bullshit? DeSantis is not promoting a ban of COVID vaccines. He is opposed to vaccine mandates. This is miles apart from what you described so please explain why you are so far off the mark.

Unless DeSantis comes out and blows Trump his ardent followers will not be happy. This is a small but noisy minority of the party as a whole. some media is tryig to blow it up for ratings but few really care.

As far as the Soros comment ... if you think this is about justice and not retribution you are lying. No one out side of politics cares about hush money paid to a porn star 12 years ago. We are discussing money to keep quiet about an affair. Especially a DA whose whole stance is to go soft on crime. I'm not a big fan of the guy but this is probably the most silliest of attacks on him I've seen. 

You mean that no part of the electorate cares whether or not the President is a decent human being?

I have to disagree...

You might want to recheck you math.  Paying hush money isn't the crime, falsifying business records, tax evasion, and improper campaign finance are the crimes. 

I never said no one but you bring up a great point in that it really doesn't matter. Trump was known to be an arse and a rule bender before he ever ran let alone won. JFK loved prostitutes as well cheated on his wife constantly with celebrities & friends and everyone knew it. Clinton was a huge cheat as well and yet all are popular. I think it's pretty clear the majority of people in this country care much less about being whatever "decent" is than being good with policies they support. This idea certainly wasn't invented for Trump.

DeSantis sees lowest level of support since December in new poll, trails Trump by 28 points (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3910294-desantis-sees-lowest-level-of-support-since-december-in-new-poll-trails-trump-by-28-points/)

(https://i.gifer.com/B2Q2.gif)

DeSantis is still clinging to the fantasy that he can defeat Trump in the primary.  Half of the GOP is praying that Trump has a heart attack on the golf course, because that's the only way they can avoid voting for him AGAIN in November 2024.  You're all terrified of the Trumpists and dare not take them on directly, desperately hoping the grim reaper solves your problems for you.

I don't buy that at all. You can't take one poll and say everything has changed dramatically. Honestly ...  many polls taken involving Trump has always been pretty bad at best. 

I know Trump supporters who would back DeSantis but I don't know very many DeSantis supporters who would back Trump at this point. I also know people who voted for Biden who support DeSantis but definitely not Trump. It's probably best for you if Trump wins the GOP because he's lost much of the support he previously had and even that wasn't enough.

Oh, at this point?  Yeah, I'm sure there are a lot of tough talkers 20 months ahead of the election.
But ultimately, they are no different than the Republicans who insisted they wouldn't vote for Trump back in spring 2016.  They have all the spine of a bowl of noodles; they will absolutely vote for Trump if the alternative is any Democrat.

I mean, you are a DeSantis supporter and you won't even attack Trump.  You're still defending Trump to this day, in this very thread! Like all Republicans DeSantis supporters, you're just hoping Trump loses somehow without ever working up the courage to mount any serious criticism of him.  It's pure wishcasting.

The outcome that is most likely to produce results I favor is if DeSantis decides to run in 2024, and Trump remains alive until DeSantis loses (primary or general).  The rationale is very simple: Trump is the one person on the planet who can deal the most damage to DeSantis' political career, and Trump will be maximally motivated to do so from this day forward until DeSantis is defeated or withdraws.

Do you mean they have half a brain?

Have you not seen how horrible things are now?

Do you like inflation, unsecure borders, high crime, forced vaccination, high gas prices, infant formula shortages, medication shortages, and a bad housing market?

D4L, you are continually posting off-topic comments to this thread.  Stop doing it.

This thread is about the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.  Go start a new thread to vent your criticism of Democrats.

I get that it's probably pretty common between you and I but really ...  I don't understand your point. Just because I'm a DeSantis supporter means I'm supposed to ignore the fact it seems rather obvious he is "supposedly" being indicted for a ridiculous reason? I say supposedly because it seems to be paused at the moment. I mean ... I didn't have to "like" George Floyd to see he should have never been killed. I take things as a case by case basis which is what I used to think everyone did.  

Oh, your sturdy defense of Trump predates any indictment.  By a lot.

You've never offered any substantive criticism of Trump, besides him being a flawed vessel, a salty sailor or whatever.  And you obviously think that - outside of his unseemly antics, which don't really matter - he did a great job as President of these United States.  So, as I already said:

I am starting to wonder if there will be a third person.  I thought we'd get Desantis, Trump, Other. 

Trump, Trump Lite, Anti-Trump...if you will.

But I am starting to question whether or not there will be an Anti-Trump out there.  The position is ripe for the taking but there's nobody to do it.  Desantis is running a the Kirkland brand of Trump.  Will there be someone like Romney (I don't think it will be Romney) that will stand up and be like "Trump is bad and I won't support him if he's the nominee" and try to run a more traditional Republican campaign?  I'm starting to doubt it.

You might as well be asking for a pro-choice candidate or a pro-immigration candidate in the GOP primary.  There is no room whatsoever for an anti-Trump candidate at the national level of the GOP; such a candidate would be drawing dead from day 1, and would have a hard time clearing any sort of polling bar to get on stage for a debate.

^ While it doesn't seem like it's gonna happen, I just don't agree that there isn't a place for it.

There are "small c" conservatives out there, libertarian-types, etc. -- they don't want Trump's bullshit, but they also don't wan Ron's culture war bullshit.  Where are they supposed to go?

I don't think they'd win.  But it's a part of the party that isn't represented.  Where are the Ron Paul voters going?  What is left for Goldwater Republicans?

I saw an interesting explanation for why these Trumpists are going so hard at DeSantis.

The theory is that they believe DeSantis will still support Trump if the latter wins the primary, but Trump will not support DeSantis if DeSantis wins.  So the best chance for the GOP to win is if DeSantis is defeated.

I personally don't believe the logic is that complex; Trump is the Great Savior, DeSantis is an obstacle in his way, and that's all there is to it.  But I can't say I disagree with the logic itself.

The leading candidate for the republican nomination has been indicted. 

The 2nd candidate just said he'd ignore the constitution and refuse to extradite him.

Desantis is a weirdo.  Your direct opponent is facing jailtime and you can't stop kissing his ass.  It's weird that he won't stand up for himself.  Or at the very least, just stay quiet about it.  To come out in his defense...like, what are you doing?!?

In all fairness to Tiny D (which more and more people are calling him), he only refused to extradite Trump after Trump's attorneys agreed to surrender.

You must remember that Little Ronnie is, above all else, a coward.

It's hilarious that even though you claim to hate him so much you are in fact the very liberal version of Tommy.

I know Desantis is acting in what he considers to be his political best interest.  I just don't see how this is it.

It would seem that there needs to a point where you break from your opposition in order to beat them.  And you opposition getting arrested in a case that has nothing to do with you or the greater party you belong to (nor its ideals), seems to be the place.

Not only is it something illegal, but it's also morally against what the GOP base is supposed to stand for.  It seems like it would be a clean break for Desantis to try and be the guy who 1) is living the Christian family man life, unlike Trump and 2) not crooked and in a bunch of legal trouble.  And he can do this by attacking Trump.  But short of that, he can just not stand up and decry the man's innocence and martyr him.  Why would he do this?

CF, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here and presume that a man who voted twice for the person who used the nicknames Crooked Hillary, Pocahontas, Sleepy Joe, Nasty Kamala, Low Energy Jeb, Sleepy Ben, Little Marco, and Lyin' Ted... that you are not objecting to the use of the nicknames Tiny D or Little Ronnie.  You can't possibly be both that hypocritical AND that fragile; I refuse to believe it.  So I'll interpret your response as objecting to my assertion that DeSantis is a coward.

You, an avowed DeSantis supporter, say you want DeSantis to win the 2024 GOP presidential primary.  And yet, despite the ample evidence of the 2016 GOP primary, you agree with DeSantis' decision to avoid attacking Trump out of fear of alienating Trump's supporters.

This.
Is.
Cowardice.

Instead of worrying about alienating Trump's supporters, you should be going on the attack and trying to convince them that DeSantis is better than Trump.  Not only is this how politics works, but Trump supporters have already shown themselves to be highly receptive to "unconventional" attacks!  Unfortunately for you, Ron DeSantis is a coward, and therefore too frightened to take on an opponent who is about to be arrested.

And let's be clear here... I would not call DeSantis a coward for deciding to sit 2024 out.  That's just being smart: DeSantis has no path to victory if Trump is on this side of the dirt.  It is his (apparent) decision to run in 2024, but in the most feeble and subservient manner possible, that makes his cowardice apparent for all to see.

Desantis knows he can't beat Trump. But Trump is 76 years old and morbidly obese, Desantis is 44 years old.   Ron wants to inherit MAGA not fight Trump for it.  Run, drop out endorse Trump, be Trump's VP candidate. 

Asa Hutchinson joins the race,  He is very similar to Nikki.  Has been critical around the edges of Trump, but has never took a strong stance against him, and often sidestepped or defended his horrid behavior.   

^ He's saying that Trump should drop out, so he's doing more than Haley.  Like I said, there is a lane for someone to take that is staunchly anti-Trump.  Maybe Asa is that guy.

That is not his lane.  He is a "Trump should move aside for the benefit of the party" guy.  Not a " Trump's conduct disqualifies him" guy.

Cowards, as far as the eye can see.  Every one of them is waiting for Someone Else to step up and take on Trump directly.

You have to be a pretty pathetic wimp to enter a primary against someone you refuse to criticize directly.  Why even bother running?
This nomination is already locked up.

They aren't willing to kill the king.  They are waiting for the king to die to fight for the inheritance.

Then why challenge him?

Watch 2024 from your couch with your MAGA hat on, and wait until 2028.

With his age, diet, exercise, stress and BMI decent chance he dies of a heart attack before the convention.

And even if he isn’t physically dead, a felony conviction could kill his political chances.  Some states don’t allow felons to vote, run for office or appear on the ballot.

As of last week, 538 has it (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-desantis-national-polls/) at Trump 49.3%, DeSantis 26.2%.

Since Trump's criminal indictment, he is pulling away.  An actual Trump conviction would likely increase his primary polling even further.

Desantis is playing this very strangely.

He should attack electability; that is Trump's biggest weakness in a primary.  Instead, he's doing weird shit that won't help him beat Trump and will also hurt him in the general if he were to beat Trump.

It could be that he just doesn't want to run for President.  He has never indicated in the slightest that he wants to run for President.

Uhh....he's doing all the things someone does when they ARE going to run for president, including not saying that he isn't, when asked.

He might not now, since he's getting whooping in all the polls.

At this point in 2015 Jeb Bush led the polls with Trump in 3rd or 4th. We are still very early in the process and national polls don't really reflect anything. It's a state by state process and popularity changes several times throughout the process. In fact I'd argue, like in the case of with Hillary and Obama, that many times the front runner runs out of gas once the new person starts getting equal attention.  

^ Yeah, this is true, but for announced candidates.

It's not really common for everyone to assume you're running, never poll very high, and then announce your candidacy late.


I listen to a good political podcast and they made a good point -- you need to announce your run at the right time so that your supporters have somewhere to "go".  They use Obama as an example -- he started to have a groundswell of donor support and people who wanted to work for his campaign -- so he announced so that he could take advantage of those tools.

Desantis probably missed his popularity window for things like that.  A few months ago he was more beloved than he is now -- it would've benefitted him to grab the opportunity at the time but now he's waning.


It's not that he can't come back, but he's definitely less valuable than he was a few months back.

There is a difference between polling data on Trump 2023 and Bush 2015.  If you support Trump after everything, than their is literally nothing that would cause you to stop supporting him.  And it would be equally impossible for him to gain support from those who oppose him.  The Haley vs DeSantos numbers can move but Trump's numbers are fixed.

I said the same about Hillary when she ran. I don't know why the Democrats didn't try harder to push a different option.

1. That’s not true.  Clinton’s support was adversely affected by the email issue.  Her support was considerably more fluid in 2015 than Trump’s is in 2023.

2.  Clinton won the popular vote in in 2016.  She was HATED by Republicans, but she wasn’t unpopular among independents. 

Winning a popular vote means nothing. She lost the swing states that the Democrats need to win. That's where you need to look at votes.

Let's stay on topic, please.  This thread should not be derailed into another discussion about Hillary.

D4L, Desantis is running.  He's running right now.  He may never announce that he's running so that he doesn't have to step down for the governorship, but the reason he's in Ohio and Japan is because he's literally running for president right now.  There are ads attacking him for that very reason.

I don't know how COVID will play out in the GOP primary, if at all.

I would have thought that Desantis would've come out on top but I don't know -- I just don't think I can put myself in the head of a GOP voter.

My first thought is that COVID isn't an issue that people care about.  The politics of that is over, so it really seems like the issue of the previous elections, not this one.
But even if it were, Desantis did some basic lockdowns and then let up and the narrative was that Florida was open for business.  It doesn't really make sense to attack him from the right.  Trump's position on COVID is too weak.

I saw somewhere that Trump was refusing to debate in any GOP primaries and I think that is 100% the right call on his part.  He has nothing to gain and it will only elevate his opponents.  I think that Trump should just treat this like he's the incumbent and pretend like the rest are fighting for VP and cabinet scraps.

I think he would lose support among the GOP. Part of his attraction is being tough and standing up to everyone so ducking competition would really lesson that view. Ad in the fact he would attack from Twitter and he would just become a keyboard troll.

Not really.  All Trump has to do is complain about biased anti-Trump moderators (which is what he will do for any moderator to the left of Newsmax, including Fox News).  The GOP electorate is extremely receptive to that kind of argument.

It is also worth noting that this is exactly what Trump will do for any general election debates.  I doubt anyone would claim that such an action would hurt Trump among his GOP base.

So your contention is that there is a portion of Republicans for which:

Trump bragging about sexual assault - not a reason to stop supporting Trump.
Trump breaking with the long standing Republican position of opposing Russia and cozying up with Putin.  - not a reason to stop supporting Trump.
Trump lying about the election and inciting an attempted coup - not a reason to stop supporting Trump.
Trump stealing Top Secret documents and then lying about it - not a reason to stop supporting Trump.
Trump refusing to participate in a debate moderated by those he claims are Trump haters - reason to stop supporting Trump.

At this point Trump's statement "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and wouldn't lose any voters" is 100% accurate.  If you still support him at this point, there is literally nothing he could do to lose your vote.   

Are we still even pretending Tiny D (which more and more people are calling him, I hear) has a chance in this race?  Dude is crashing and burning.

The polls are terrible (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3975026-trump-tops-desantis-by-46-points-in-new-poll/), the coverage (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/04/20/as-desantis-falters-christie-sees-an-opening-00093003) is terrible (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ron-desantis-goofy-expression-asked-142742835.html), and the only response he ever has to any hard questions (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3978015-desantis-fumes-over-former-guantanamo-detainees-torture-claims-totally-bs/) - "the woke media is pushing their biased agenda again" - has no gravity outside of hardcore conservatives, the vast majority of whom prefer Trump anyway.

I said it before and I'll say it again: Ron DeSantis is Scott Walker.  He's a big tough guy when he's using overwhelming majorities in the state house to drop anvils on people he doesn't like, but the moment he sets foot outside of his home state, he turns into a wax statue and starts melting everywhere.

Tiny D is 6' tall so what does that make the other 85% of the men in this country? LOL.  I don't think it's catching on as much as you like. Well, at least outside of liberal unicorn country where they are are trying to latch onto anything negative regarding the GOP regardless of how silly. Maybe DeSantis was  secretly caught having prostitutes pee on him while he was in Japan?

Tiny D isn't a "liberal" nickname for him.  It comes from the MAGA wing.   

Maybe after you account for his 3-inch heels (https://twitter.com/realTomPappert/status/1632595675148943361).

But I'm sure this politician wears boots because of all the time he spends on horses and not because they make him appear taller.

I get that Trump said it but it really isn't being thrown around by the average GOP person. There is a small fringe of Trump supporters who would eat shit if he told them too.

LOL ... I stood next to him at Bike Week and looked him in his eyes. I'm 6' as well. In fact it's Trump who wears wedges in his shoes and higher heels to appear taller and intimidate.

All that aside Trump has issues. I recently had a conversation with a guy who is pretty extreme in his views as far as being a MAGA Patriot. He was complaining about how Trump has been given millions from Disney and Anheuser-Busch and that he and his son have revealed their true colors by supporting them. Apparently it's hard to keep people convinced you are draining the swamp when you show you are sold out to people as well. I fully expect this will become a bigger issue for him.

I'm not quoting the "average GOP person."  I'm quoting the overwhelming frontrunner in the GOP presidential primary, whom you voted for twice.

I doubt you, a six-foot-tall man, were wearing 3-inch heels when you "looked him in his eyes," which is the point.  If he is wearing heels (or lifts) to be the same height as you, he ain't 6' tall.

Although I must admit that I am quite amused to hear you criticizing these fanatical Trump supporters who will follow him blindly, I have to wonder... why bother?  Trump has done far, far worse than "sell out to the swamp" - for example, he bragged on tape about sexually assaulting women - and you pulled the lever for him twice anyway.  Seems a little late to grow a conscience, especially when you'll be pulling the lever for Trump again in November 2024 if he wins the primary.

Somewhat tangentially related, here (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2024-presidential-primary-trump-v-trump-fatigue-poll-2023-05-01/) are the toplines from a recent CBS News/YouGov poll of GOP primary likely voters:

(https://assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/r/2023/04/30/3178cd6f-4653-4eb7-8879-51db63f7db69/thumbnail/620x349/ddd25fcbcff0cc75c36ca763974c2ab2/prefer-gop-candidate-who.png)

1) Nothing in this result is surprising; GOP primary voters are who we thought they were.
2) This drives yet another nail into the coffin of those who think not-Trump can win this.

If that poll is correctly measuring the electorate, you'd think that Desantis would be polling better.  His entire platform is against wokeness.  It's all he ever talks about.

It's not like Trump is pro-woke; DeSantis has to pound the table just to keep pace.

The bigger problem is the number 3 answer.  Why would someone who believes Trump won in 2020 vote for DeSantis?

DeSantis has never acknowledged that Biden won in 2020 and appointed an election denier to be Sec. State. 

I would say he hits all four boxes. 

I'm not saying that Tiny D (as many call him) is bucking orthodoxy on any of those four items; I'm saying Trump meets them better.

Furthermore, if DeSantis agrees that Trump actually won in 2020, his own argument for being the 2024 nominee evaporates into thin air.

Of all of the things I've ever been angry about politically, Jan 6th (and the behavior that led up to it and the behavior of those around it and related to it) is the top.

I remember coming on here and saying it.  I was and am so fucking mad when I think about it.  I cannot fathom that an American President can do what he did and have any amount of support from anyone, even those (especially those) in his own party.  It's so far outside of what I consider to be acceptable and it is completely disqualifying.  It's what dictators do.  It's the antithesis of democracy.

You guys know how I feel so I'm not trying to relitigate that point.

But I mention it because it makes it hard to see Trump's political run objectively.  I try to divorce myself from those feelings and talk about policy differences and strategy vs. Desantis and who will endorse him and what states are in play, etc.  ...all that normal stuff that you weigh when looking at a candidate's run for office.  But I always fall back to thinking that Trump is essentially a terrorist who tried to overthrow democracy via violent coup.  I bounce back and forth about being mad at those that directly were involved, but also how much of a fragile system our democracy is.  I just assumed we would never let that happen, but it did, and we have.  A guy tried to overthrow the government, it didn't work, and now he's in the conversation to be president.  It's completely wild to me.

So, that's why I just can't count Desantis out.

Even though he seems be politically imploding, there has to be a Trump alternative for people who consider themselves on the right (be it fiscally, religious, or even the anti-woke types) but still think that you shouldn't be able to overthrow the democracy when you lose.

Ron DeSantis himself does not believe Trump tried to overthrow democracy, and sees nothing wrong with Trump's actions on that day.  So on the particular topic of the Jan 6 insurrection, I'm not sure that DeSantis represents a meaningful distinction from Trump.

There is no place in the Republican Party for those who disapprove of Trump's actions on Jan 6.  There is no remotely viable GOP presidential candidate who has publicly called for accountability for Trump regarding his attempt to prevent the transition of power.

I can't believe I'm defending Desantis, but yes, there's a difference.

Desantis might be downplaying or denying that Trump tried to overthrow the government.  That's a shitty position.  He probably doesn't believe it or he's biding his time or he feels that it's a politically valuable position.  Downplaying someone trying to overthrow the government is definitely bad.

But it's not trying to overthrow the government yourself.

Not attacking someone for their crime isn't the same as committing the crime yourself.

Also, I don't want to make this about Desantis, really.  He's just the #2 right now, but it could be anyone.

I mean...you could want no government assistance, anti Union, big military, prayer in school, anti regulations, pro gun, not think trans is a thing, against teaching civil rights struggle in school, against gay rights, etc. etc. ....all of the things that the GOP has been about on or off for the last 20 years.  Pick any or all of them.  ...you can be that and still think that Trump is a dangerous dictator-type who lost an election and tried to be president anyway and absolutely cannot vote for him because of that.

There must be a lot of those people who I am 100% ideologically against on issues, but we can agree that we should still vote and the loser not just install his own government through brute force anyway.  Those people will have a candidate on the ballot that isn't Trump.

You're saying you're angry about Jan 6, but saying that necessarily means you are not the target audience for the GOP presidential primary.  It's no different than saying you're upset about the GOP's attacks on trans people or their attempts to outlaw abortion.

I would also point out that DeSantis' endorsement of the stolen election lie means that if DeSantis is in office, you should expect the same dirty tricks from him as we saw from Trump in late 2020 and early 2021... just not executed in such a clumsy and buffoonish fashion.  The position of the Republican Party at this point is that Democratic rule is fundamentally illegitimate, so - just as Republicans learned from Watergate that you should never impeach your own, and just brazen it out instead - the GOP has learned from their mistakes in 2020 and will have processes in place for GOP state legislatures to "adjust" the outcomes so that Jan 6-style violence is not necessary.  It's the difference between invading the Capitol, and Bush v. Gore.

Ultimately, you are just splitting hairs in this primary.  The "reasonable conservative" who is angry about Jan 6 is not voting for the Trump sycophant who agrees that the 2020 election was stolen.  (If you believe the election was actually stolen, Jan 6 would be a rational and warranted response!)

I'm not looking for a reasonable conservative.  That isn't even my bar.  I'm looking for someone who didn't already actively attempt a violent coup of the government in an illegal takeover.

It's a low bar.

But we aren't talking about candidates in this context; we're talking about voters.  And you aren't voting for any of these guys.

And that's the point: a voter like you, who is angry about Jan 6, would not consider voting for any of these guys, because one cannot be angry about Jan 6 and continue to vote for the Republican Party. Don't believe me? Ask any GOP primary voter how angry they are about Jan 6.

*I* will voting in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.  Just like I voted in the 2020 Republican presidential primary and the 2022 Republican governor primary.  Won't be voting Republican in the general.

Sometimes I wish I could vote in the primary but I can't.

Just to put it on record,  Trump will not only win the nomination,  he will win the general as well. Progressives are too idealistic and would rather not vote or split votes on principle and give up the Supreme Court. Conservatives are too scared to force their base to take a stance and will even put their moral principles to the side just to ensure victory. The civil suit he just lost is only going to boost this guy.

^ I disagree.  He is nationally unelectable.

He only won the first time because that FBI news broke mere days before the election and he was something of an unknown quantity.  Since then, he has either directly lost or the candidates he has supported lost and the GOP has underperformed in every single election since, more so as he's involved more.  Trump lost and then he tried to overthrow the government and was found liable for sexual assault unanimously in a court.  He is a serial liar who is not adding any new supporters after he's already lost multiple cycles in a row.

The man is a threat to the very core of democracy, regardless of how you feel about the issues.  He is toxic and damaging to his own party.  Perhaps losing again will finally give the GOP an exit ramp.

DeSantis to announce his bid for the White House next week. It will be interesting to see if and how much his poll numbers jump in the weeks afterwards.

Desantis will have one key issue he has to deal with:  He needs to claim Trump is unelectable.  That is Desantis' biggest political advantage.

However, he cannot be an election denier and pretend that Trump won the election.  He doesn't currently know how to play that, because he wants to beat Trump but also not anger his supporters' biggest claim.  It's a tightrope act.

In his speech last week ... I think in Ohio maybe ... DeSantis' message was we need to focus on the future and quit looking back. Republicans know it was his way of saying Trump is still hooked up on the election.

I saw conservative talking head Ben Shapiro, who is supporting DeSantis, saying that Trump keeps bitching about the 2020 election  that he says was rigged & stolen from him yet he hasn't proposed anything about how he was going to fix that problem to win this time. It's kind of dead end horse to be beating these days for many Republicans so DeSantis can just ignore the whole thing and look better for doing so.

^ I disagree.

Ignoring it is the worst choice.  I think he's gotta say straight-up that Trump lost, then he lost a bunch of house seats, and then he's gonna lose again.

He's too far behind to try and ignore his biggest campaign strength.

Granted, I'm not in the head of the average GOP voter.

Trump has almost no chance of beating Biden in 2024.  

DeSantis has a decent shot in my opinion.  

I want to know, in the time from 2018 to 2022, was there a massive influx of people who moved to Florida?

Maybe DeSantis should pick somebody from AZ, OH, PA, or GA as his running mate.    

I took delight in watching the party that disrespected my profession be humiliated in 2022.  

Biden had the best midterm record by an incumbent since 2002, and that president should not have even been elected (Gore would have won if the recount continued).

Instead of chanting Fuck Joe Biden, we can chant RON-DE-SANT-IS

I've never voted in a primary election ever before.

I originally thought Desantis would be the guy because Trump would implode, but 1) it seems like Trump isn't going anywhere and 2) even if he were, Desantis ain't it.

The guy isn't charismatic enough.  He's just uncomfortable to watch.  Also, I think his culture war stuff is too much and most people thing it's gone too far.  The book banning stuff, in particular, is just a bad look.  He's getting a lot of bad press.  I think Trump is going to eat his lunch, particularly with all these new people joining the race.

I don't at all. Places like Disney and AB continue to lose money and liberal places like Target are buckling much faster than before because people all around the country are speaking up. Those aren't Trump positions at all. In fact he actually supports both Disney and AB. I think more and more people have become supportive of people like DeSantis and are tired of pretending it's ok to be nuts. That goes for the nutballs claiming it's Trump or no one else.

Overall (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/disney-dis-earnings-report-q2-2023.html), for the three-month period ended April 1, Disney reported net income of $1.49 billion, or 69 cents a share, compared with $597 million, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier.

Sounds like Disney is doing just fine.

This nonsense with Disney, Budweiser, and Target is just another rehash of conservatives smashing Keurig machines or burning Nike sneakers.  It will have no significant impact.  This is yet another example of how Trump is outpositioning DeSantis: Trump recognizes that this particular culture war tactic that the right loves has no actual legs.  It's no different than how Republicans constantly whine about cutting Medicare and Social Security, while Trump tells them not to.

Are you still reading polling on this primary?  I have to imagine DeSantis supporters have given up on that by now, as Tiny D (which many people are calling him) has done nothing but spiral towards the earth for months (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/).

What is the end goal for the Governor of FLORIDA regarding Disney?  Assume for a moment, his hostility is successful enough for Disney to decide to buy some swamp land in Georgia disassemble all the rides and set up shop in a more friendly state?  He has already convinced them to move one project to California.  That would cost Disney millions maybe even billions but the company would survive, what happens to the economy of central Florida? 

I was speaking to a Trump supporter today and out of his mouth he said now we can get a real polling going on. Polls are iffy at best but only a fool would trust a poll where one of the people aren't even on the ballot. 

Yep ... laying off 7000 jobs, closing down their new billion dollar Star wars Hotel in less than 2 years, and cancelling their billion dollar tech housing project that's at least a year behind on but they are killing it. The parks are doing ok but the entertainment portion, including many of their woke movies, have massively underperformed. You can blame whatever you want but I see it everyday. There is a portion of America turning their backs on the mouse.

As far as Bud Light they are literally giving it away. They are charging $20 a case and giving back $20 rebate cards. hahaha

In other news there was a news report the other day that much of the 200 or so employees who were relocated in advance of the new neighborhood are pushing to stay in Orlando and not transfer back to California. Guess they didn't hear about the mean governor.  

This is easy. He wants them on the same level as Universal, Sea World, and others. None of which have their own government or independent oversight. This had been brought up many times in Florida way before DeSantis ever became gov so it didn't help when Disney put them on his radar.

There is a weird thing at Disney any way in regards to the division he is taking back. If you work for Reedy Creek (Disney's government) you are a part of the Florida Retirement System (FRS). There is not one other private company on that pension plan because it's for state and local employees but they have managed to get on it.

Bullshit.  There are over 1000 special purpose district of various types across Florida.  And Desantis didn't have one iota of a problem with any of them until Disney dared to criticize DeSantos's don't say gay bill.   

Old method of board membership selection - democratically elected by the landowners of the district.  (one entity owns all the land so it isn't much of an election)
New method appointed by someone who doesn't live or work in the district and has a grudge against the landowner because they hurt his feelings.

Disney is huge this district allows Disney make sure their infrastructure is kept up to Disney standards, they lose that and Florida loses Disney.

When DeSantis was leading (but not yet declared), you were happy to cite polls approvingly:


But now that he's getting crushed, the current primary polls are for fools?  Come on, man.

At the end of the day, their net income for Q2 2023 was almost triple was it was in the same timeframe last year.  So whatever mistakes they are making seem to be more than made up for by the good moves they are making.

It is a bit ironic that you specifically point out the success of the Disney parks, as the parks are the one thing that DeSantis can most directly affect.

I agree with calling me out on the polls. I was a fool too .... hahaha.  You can point to all the money stats you want but Disney wouldn't be laying off and cancelling billion dollar projects if they were fine. As well, not sure about your reference to Ron and Disney parks doing well. He hasn't set out to make Disney do bad in any law he has enacted. It's only to force them to play on the same field as the other theme parks and businesses. 

We could discuss special districts all day but typically they are more restrictive environmental areas. Name one theme park with a special district.

As well ... I already said they put their self on his radar. What it didn't do was start the discussion about removing Disney's special status. Universal is currently building a new theme park, Epic Universe. Do you know how much more it takes for them to be able to do that than say when Disney built MGM Studios?  Don't you think that maybe they and others like them have been pushing government to makes things a little more even or do you think it's just been Kum ba yah for everyone because its Disney getting all this special privilege?

Dave … is this what you’ve been waiting for?  


I don't know what happened to Donald Trump': DeSantis FINALLY unloads on ex-President to say he is 'running to the LEFT,' has 'changed' since his first White House run and his campaign is going in the 'wrong direction'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12128107/DeSantis-says-Trump-running-LEFT-changed-ran-2016.html

CF, do you really think it was a good idea for DeSantis to wait until now to finally make some timid gestures at attacking Trump?
Seems like he could have done exactly the same thing 3 months ago when you posted those polls showing DeSantis with a lead, instead of waiting until after Trump has undermined a bunch of his support.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: DeSantis is a dummy for running in 2024.  Trump is going to do this guy like he did Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, and that will be the last we hear of Ron DeSantis.  The only out DeSantis has is if Trump dies.

We will see how it plays out. He's got a ton of money backing him and plenty of time to introduce himself to the rest of the country. I honestly see no issue with how he has run this except for Twitter failing him. He's still got plenty of time.

He has introduced himself to the country.  He is the governor who picked a fight with a cartoon mouse, following in the tradition of other great Republican leaders such as Dan Quail going after Murphy Brown and Mitt Romney going to war with Big Bird.

The one notable development with DeSantis officially entering the primary is that finally, he provides an acceptable target for all the other Republican primary candidates who are terrified of Trump; by attacking DeSantis, they can run against Trumpism without having to run directly against Trump.  Nikki Haley is already (https://floridapolitics.com/archives/614245-nikki-haley-video-mocks-ron-desantis-as-donald-trump-echo/) doing so (https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-desantis-like-trump-without-any-of-the-charm-2023-5).

I think Haley, DeSantos and other all realize the can't directly beat Trump but figure there is a very decent chance Trump will implode, get arrested, die or flee the country by the time the Republican convention occurs and are positioning themselves to the nominee then.

Just wanted to re-emphasize that even if DeSantis can manage to make it to the first debates, he is going to get (https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1652040109313630208) absolutely dogpiled (https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/05/25/us-presidential-candidate-ramaswamy-takes-potshot-at-desantis-bitcoin-remark/) by the rest of the candidates.

The more I see this shaking out, it seems like there is Trump and "the field" and the latter is fighting for scraps.  I think their only hope is that Trump dies, gets in more legal trouble, or otherwise has a scandal that makes him super toxic.  They don't seem interested in trying to take him down directly.

This video (https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1661519286370746375) is, in a word, sad.

DeSantis, who rose to fame with a video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1YP_zZJFXs) shamelessly worshipping Trump, just released the above campaign video that appears to be equally about... Elon Musk?  Musk is not on the ticket (and, constitutionally, cannot be).

Tiny D (as more and more people are calling him) is a weak candidate that needs to attach himself to popular people to try to siphon off of their supporters' enthusiasm.  This bubble is going to burst spectacularly.

And Mike Pence throws his hat in the ring.....

He won't get the diehard Trump supporters, even if Trump drops out.

He won't get the never Trumpers.

He can get the religious extremists.

It's pretty apparent you are obsessed with DeSantis and hoping he has a Tiny D. Good for you I guess. The video you linked to is about securing our border and the reasons behind it. No mention of Elon Musk. Maybe concentrate on linking to correct videos instead of looking for tiny ds?  

BTW Tiny D has closed the gap by 14% in Iowa since declaring. He now trails Trump by only 10% with plenty of time to gain even more from the crowded field.

half the images are of musk.

Unless DeSantis is running for the Mayor of Des Moines, it means nothing...

Seems like you don't like Trump's nicknames any more :D
Personally, I think they're all sophomoric and ridiculous.  "Tiny D," in particular, perfectly encapsulates the mindset of the presidential candidate who bragged about his dick size on a nationally-broadcast debate stage (and then easily won the GOP primary).  It is the perfect Trump nickname that instantly conveys everything Trump is about.  So hopefully, after Trump thoroughly demolishes your man in the GOP primary, you can stop defending Trump at every turn.

Maybe you should try actually watching the video.  Half of it is footage of Elon Musk: Elon Musk at a premiere, Elon Musk in a media interview, Elon Musk with a flamethrower, Elon Musk unveiling the Tesla semi.  Is Tiny D talking about closing the border to immigrants like Musk?  Because otherwise, there is no reason why this Ron DeSantis campaign video should be stuffed to the gills with random video of Elon Musk...

...except that, as stated, Tiny D is a charisma-free troll who can only siphon glory from popular people, and is completely hopeless when he's not preaching to a carefully-crafted audience of supporters.

Glad to see you believe in polling again!  I don't see any polling of Iowa from June, and all the polls I see from May have Tiny D getting crushed (https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2023-05-25/desantis-heads-to-iowa-lagging-far-behind-trump-in-new-poll).

However, I did find some national polling from June:

538 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/): Trump 53.7%, DeSantis 21.3%
Rasmussen (https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/gop_voters_favor_trump_over_desantis_nearly_2_to_1): Trump 58%, DeSantis 30%

It means when he actually started campaigning in the state people took notice but that's pretty obvious.

I guess looking for polls where he hasn't even campaigned at makes sense ... if I didn't care about reality anyway. Might as well post Bud Light sales from 6 months ago versus last week.

I have no idea why Musk in those images but absolutely nothing is referencing Musk in the soundbite. You do realize that video isn't from a Ron DeSantis account don't you?

They are national polls, just like the polls you posted the last time you liked polling.
Furthermore: you didn't even post any Iowa polls!  You simply declared DeSantis has "closed the gap" without any polling at all.

The entire point of criticism I am making is that Elon Musk is half of the video for no discernible reason!
It LITERALLY has nothing to do with Musk!  Tiny D is simply trying to glom on to Musk's popularity!

In point of fact, that video is from the (verified by Elon Musk's Twitter™) DeSantis War Room account, listed as "Rapid Response for @RonDesantis".
It is an official account for the DeSantis campaign.

[edit: deleted unnecessarily combative extra content]

LMAO ... you know it's a fan site but OK if it makes you feel better. I didn't realize you wanted me to post the poll as I just assumed you could use google or duck duck go if you didn't trust me.

It is the verified official response account for the Ron DeSantis campaign.
My question is... why are you acting like you care if it's official or not?  If I take the time to jump through the hoops and prove the account is official, you'll just say, "well the video doesn't matter anyway."  So let's just skip directly to that part: you don't really care if Tiny D is putting out Elon Musk fan videos as his official campaign content, for exactly the same reasons that you don't really care if Trump is bragging on tape about assaulting women, or insulting Gold Star families: they will enact the policies that you want.  Just be up front about it.

I literally just said, "I don't see any polling of Iowa from June," and I'd be fine to leave it at that except you're saying that the recent national polls I cited aren't relevant.  So cite your polls, or shut up about the polling.  I'd like to see what kind of commanding Trump lead in Iowa you believe is good news for Tiny D.

It's verified alright just like millions of others who paid $7 to get a blue check. LMAO ... you do realize I can't take you seriously regardless of how much you try to troll me. It's just gotten too silly. 

The first indictment didn't really have too much of a sag on Trump's poll numbers in the GOP field, but this second one might.  It's a much more serious charge, IMO.

I think that Chris Christie is trying to be the anti-Trump candidate.

By the way, the thing that the Republicans are making you have to sign a loyalty pledge to support the nominee if you want to get on the stage -- that's dumb.

It is not dumb.  It is evil.  Don't confuse the two.  It is a brilliant move by a Trump loyalist.  The policy benefits Trump and makes things more difficult for the moderates within the party. 

Gerrymandering, voter id laws, opposition to mail in voting, etc are not dumb, they are evil. 

They started that with Trump and Christie kind of made a joke about it. Christie ...“George, I will be on the debate stage, and I will take the pledge that the [Republican National Committee] puts in front of me just as seriously as Donald Trump did eight years ago, when he signed the pledge, as Reince Priebus went up there and begged him to do it, and on the first debate stage, he didn’t raise his hand to say he’d support the nominee.”


I would absolutely be shocked if Christies develops much of a following either way. In my opinion if any dark horse breaks through it will either be Nikki Haley or Tim Scott. Politically speaking they both really fit the model of the average Republican in my opinion and being a minority in today's world helps fringe people relate.

So Christie said the quiet part out loud, "I will lie, if I feel it is necessary to get elected."   

It will improve his polling in the GOP primary, just as the first one did.

Christie's answer is precisely correct.  The GOP "loyalty pledge" is a joke; Trump made it meaningless.

The person who should be most concerned about Christie is DeSantis.  Christie cannot do anything to affect Trump, but he can most definitely give Tiny D the same treatment he gave Little Marco.

Disagree. I realize you are better than me in understanding the GOP but I actually work and play with many Trump loyalists and can see the cracks in the armor getting bigger. Trump's support of the shots, Disney, and Anheiser Busch didn't go over very well even with his biggest supporters. Now he has basically helped Saudi Arabia steal professional golf from the US ... in which he also benefits. That doesn't bode well for the America first model he tries to sell. All he has left is his insults and even those have gotten boring to the GOP.

Two questions every Republican candidate will be asked.

1 If Trump is the nominee will you support him in the general?

2 If Trump is convicted will you pardon him?

Answer no to either and you can't win the primary.  Answer yes to either and you can win the general.

Trump is the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary and by far the most popular person in the Republican Party.  This is not my opinion; this is the opinion that Republicans give when asked.

If the people you are talking to think Trump has lost popularity among the GOP, they are fringe outliers who are out-of-touch.

So your friends don't care about Trump's attempting to overthrow the election, his inciting a riot intent on killing his VP, or his violation the espionage act.  But they are switching to DeSantos because DeSantos is more extreme in his persecution of LBGT community than Trump. 

I love how you know so much more about Republicans than I do. How would you like if I started schooling you on the homeless and drug dealing in San Fran? hahaha

Was just listening to a national conservative broadcast and they were discussing how many people who have voted for Trump twice are reaching burnout with always having to defend him etc. and that he's already lost the independent soccer moms.

Yep. That's exactly what I said. LMAO .... go ahead and add that DeSantis is the Grand Wizard and orchestrated a clan meeting at WDW this past weekend.

How many Republicans do you know... 30?  50?  200?
I am neither offering nor concerned with the opinion of Republicans in Sanford, Florida.  I am talking about what Republicans all over the nation tell anyone who asks them about Donald Trump.

Consider that you and your neighbors, all Florida residents, may have both a higher opinion of DeSantis and a lower opinion of Trump than the rest of the Republicans in this country.

Being "tired of defending Trump" implies that one acknowledges that Trump has done bad things of significance.  But Trump defenders have never done that: it's always just locker room talk, or he's a salty sailor, or he was obviously joking, or it's another witch hunt.  So if y'all really believe all those things are true, why are you "reaching burnout" stating simple truths?

It's almost like you're getting tired of having to spin his obvious moral bankruptcy to justify your continued support of him.  Sounds rough!

Not your. I was tired of Trump a while ago. It's taken others longer to get there but I do se it happening regardless of the polls. Few polls have ever been true when Trump was involved.  Knowing Trump's charges are political isn't a defense of Trump as much as the system. He was investigated for 8 months and these charges filed while Hunter Biden has been under investigation for several years and crickets. In fact ... they are getting close to running out of time to be able to file charges on Hunter which would surely be a coincidence.


I will say it is interesting they charged Trump in Miami where his favorability is about 50/50. This should make for a decent jury pool.

But not so tired of him that you've actually stopped defending him:

The plain and simple reality is that after Trump wins the GOP primary, you'll be back to defending him as you have been for the last 7 years.  This is the true absurdity of the GOP primary: substantive criticism of Trump is forbidden by the GOP electorate, so you and yours are forced to resort to weak arguments about his controversial style instead of, say, his attempt to overthrow our system of government.

This is why you can't beat him.

I split off the Hunter Biden discussion as it has nothing to do with the GOP primary.

Not big on polls but figured some of you would like these from CNN. Bottom line is Trump support is falling while DeSantis is staying steady. Unfortunately for both of them 23/21% percent of the GOP would not vote for either of them. LOL. I had a weird vision in where both Trump and Kennedy Jr run as independents and really screw up this election. hahaha



- 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice down from 53%

- Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll  with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.

- In addition to the decline in support for Trump’s candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now, while the share who say they would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances has climbed, from 16% in May to 23% now. At the same time, there has been a similar increase in the share saying they would not back DeSantis under any circumstances (up 6 points to 21%).


https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/cnn-poll-trump-indictment-republicans-2024/index.html

I saw that Trump's polling dropped like 8% within the GOP, but I didn't see where it went.  It didn't look like anyone really grabbed the lot of the 8%.

I'm always telling my sister that whatever happens can happen super fast.  Even if it seems like Trump is untouchable, if he were to fall, it could happen within a matter of days.  It's like a house of cards.

That poll should be terrifying and humiliating for any DeSantis supporter.

It says that while 26% of Republicans have DeSantis as their first choice, 21% would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances.  And while the first number hasn't moved since May, the second number increased by over 1/3.

That's... a terrible trend for Tiny D.  If June goes the same way, DeSantis will have more voters who directly oppose him than he will have supporters!

Polling data from June 24, 2015:

Jeb Bush 14%
Donald Trump 11%

A little early to call the race. 

I still have a hard time believing that "any" republican actually believes that their candidate could be anyone but Donald Trump. Trump continues to tightly grip the GOP by the balls (and "when you're a star, they let you do it").  And as long as GOP politicians know that if Trump says "GOP politician X is a socialist...or a communist...or - gasp - a liberal), take your pick, that GOP politician will never win a major national election again...and that sort of career suicide just doesn't compute  ("Danger Senator Robinson, Danger!").

Until the moment comes that Trump's crimes don't allow him to run for President, there are no other candidates for the GOP. Period.

LMAO … as much as you’d like that to be “humiliating” to me, a DeSantis supporter, I’ve said for while now that’s what will kill the GOP. There is a section of voters who will not vote for Trump and and there is a section that will only vote for Trump. This poll pretty much supports that theory.  The only hope I have is that we still have a ways to go but right now Biden is going to win again regardless of who the GOP puts up.

If it's any comfort, I think they're lying.  Once they are faced with the prospect of 4 more years of Joe Biden forcing their kids to be trans as he outlaws guns and the Bible, they will go to the polls and vote for Trump once again.

The major advantage that the right has over the left is that the right understands how to make their politicians bend to their will.  The left stupidly believes that voting for third-parties in the general election is the way to scare Democratic candidates, while the right correctly realizes that the way to scare Republicans is by voting for the most extreme candidates possible in the primary while consistently voting R in the general.

This is why the GOP primary is as it is: Republican primary voters have shown that they are happy to tank their chances in the general as long as they enforce strict discipline in the primaries.  The possibility of Trump being in prison doesn't reduce his ability to win the GOP primary at all because GOP primary voters don't care about fielding an "electable" candidate.  And this is why these primary attempts to run as Trump But Without The Baggage are hopeless: there is no constituency for that kind of candidate in the Republican Party.  Republican primary voters simply do not care about electability.

note: There is an exception here, in that while I think DeSantis/Haley/Ramaswamy/whatever voters will ultimately vote for Trump in the general, Trump's cultists may not vote for anyone else, and would happily for for Trump if he ran third-party.

Trump wins the general and we all pay the price. Fuck my life.

If Trump doesn't win the primary there's little doubt he won't run as Independent. He's too much of a narcissist to give up. At a minimum he will want credit for not getting the GOP person elected because he was cheated.

It's no secret his family isn't a part of this election and it seems few who were supporting him before. Most people would have already opted out. He certainly isn't in a position to make enemies of whoever is going to be in office in 2024. 

Desantos etc.  Could get the MAGA wing in the general election but doing so would guarantee Biden all of the independents and moderates.  "The first thing I will do on Jan 20, 2025 is  issue pardons to President Trump and all persons changed in the protest on Jan 6."

Republicans have done absolutely nothing since Nov 3, 2020 to appeal to moderate/independents and plenty to drive them away. 


 

If Trump doesn't win the primary, he will need the GOP candidate to win so that he can get a pardon.  I don't see him running 3rd party to screw that opportunity.

Why do any of you believe Trump thinks he will need a pardon?  There is ZERO evidence Trump believes he is in any danger.

If Trump loses the primary, he will go absolute balls-to-walls to ensure that whoever beats him loses to Joe Biden (the guy that beat him).  You can argue all you want about how that's strategically a bad move; Trump doesn't care.  A version of Trump capable of considering long-term repercussions would not be bragging on tape about showing people secret documents he didn't declassify.

Trump will do everything in his power to tank any threat in this primary, and if he loses the primary, he will do everything in his power to tank the GOP winner in the general election.  The only possible way Trump foregoes this strikeback is if he's in prison or in the ground.  Consequently, GOP primary voters must realize that Trump will rule or ruin in all events, and cast their votes accordingly.

I don't have inside information, but when you see reports of people close to Trump saying that he's freaking out, not to mention looking at his tweeting behavior when paired with various announcements from the justice department, I would say that there's at least some evidence that he's scared.

I'd be scared.

Hell, even if he goes to prison there's no doubt that he'll be in a "country club-type place" and have it better than the guys in Goodfellas did. Probably get to play golf, eat fancy food, and all sorts of other shit that regular people wouldn't have access to.

Ron DeSantis: You Have to Meet Me to Like Me (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-desantis-you-have-to-meet-me-to-like-me/ar-AA1dWjBT?ocid=a2hs&cvid=f6d7967f82ca48389c7fbd26b191a15a&ei=18)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen woe after woe in his campaign for the Republican nomination, forcing him to cut staff and actually engage with traditional media outlets.

But the governor seemingly donned a pair of rose-colored lenses in an interview on Fox News’ MediaBuzz on Sunday, downplaying problems and pointing to his trips to early primary states. It’s there, he told host Howard Kurtz, where he’s found his voting audience—once they meet him in person.

“We were just in Iowa on Friday at the Family Leaders Summit. That was effectively the kickoff to Iowa caucus season,” DeSantis said. “So Iowans are starting to pay more attention to it. We were able to talk to thousands of people over a two-day period, and the number one thing I hear from people is this. They’re like, ‘Yeah, you know, I knew you did good things in Florida, but I hadn’t seen you yet, and now that I’ve seen you, I’m for you.’”

DeSantis’ claim comes despite an avalanche of media reports about his personal awkwardness and questions about whether he has the charisma to succeed on the trail.

---

Tiny D's campaign has cratered (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/); he's currently running closer to Mike Pence than he is to Donald Trump.  Are we still pretending this guy has any hope to win the GOP primary if Donald Trump is still breathing?  He's the Jeb Bush of Scott Walkers.

Regardless of how this turns out you need to take a break on the issue. Millions of people have Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) but I do believe you are the first to have DeSantis derangement syndrome (DDS). This really shouldn't have the control of you that it does.

recognizing trump lite is fascist is not a derangement, it is reality.  You would not doubt have accused August Landmesser of having HDS.

Desantis set up the first part of the campaign alright.  Name recognition, he was presumed to be next in line after Trump.

But he has faltered and misplayed pretty much everything since.  Also, he just isn't very likable as a human, which is hard to overcome.

So yeah, he's probably done.  Even if Trump falters, unless they literally just default to Desantis because there's nobody else, it will probably be someone else.

The DeSantis fan club is now complaining about too much DeSantis talk?  Seems like even you are waving the white flag at this point.

How far along are you towards making emotional peace with your upcoming vote for Trump?  Just remember that you aren't voting for an angel-in-chief.

Lets talk about Vivek Ramaswamy, who in some polls is as high as 3rd place, in other polls he isn't doing quite as well.

He has a bold plan: realizing that his positions and the GOP in general is highly unpopular with younger voters, he want to raise the voting age to 25.

Although we all know by now that Trump will easily win the primary if he is still breathing, the race for who will finish second is still moderately interesting.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Christie will win enough fans for attacking Trump to come in second.  Tiny D is just going to bleed support from here on out, and Christie is the only candidate that's doing something markedly different than the rest (taking on Trump directly).  If you're one of the few Republicans that actually means it when they say they are done with Trump (and therefore does not reflexively oppose any candidate that attacks him), Christie seems like he embodies all the rest of the "values" y'all claim you support.

All the other candidates face the impossible task of trying to defeat Trump while simultaneously giving him a tongue bath.  Christie, at the very least, is pursuing a strategy that makes sense: attack your opponent directly.

Will Will Hurd be heard or will a herd of Maga block Will Hurd from being heard?

Poll of Florida voters conducted from 6/27-7/1 by FAU/Mainstreet research (https://www.fau.edu/artsandletters/fau-polcom-lab/pdfs/mainstreet-florida-july-2023.pdf)

Among GOP registered voters:

"If the GOP Presidential Primary were held today, which candidate would you vote for?"

50% Trump
30% DeSantis
7% undecided
4% Ramaswamy
3% Scott
[several candidates at 2% or below]

Limiting the candidates to Trump and DeSantis:
54% Trump
37% DeSantis
8% undecided

Those numbers are better for Desantis than the national polls .. at least in florida 30% of the people like him

Agree completely, but as long as he can't tweet or talk directly to the media for the term of his imprisonment, I'd call it a win.

Looks like Chris Christie is surging (https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-desantis-fades-trump-maintains-lead-in-primary/) (such as it is) in NH:

(https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/gop-1024x604.png.webp)

It's all theater at this point.  If Trump is still breathing, he will be the 2024 GOP nominee.  Every additional indictment expands his lead; a conviction would cement it.

There's still a lot of time left.

I agree that Trump is the likely nominee because even though he's nationally unelectable, the GOP doesn't seem to have caught up with that idea yet.  However, you never know.  I think there are a lot of people who don't pay attention to this stuff that just aren't going to vote for a guy who is going to get convicted of multiple felonies.

Momentum is huge in politics.  As people start dropping out and coalescing around a candidate, as some change strategies, as we start debates and Trump isn't there -- who knows how any of that will play out.

I read that Trump is going to create "alternate programming" to air during the debate.  I'm assuming that alternate programming is just going to be more whining and ranting about which radical leftist DA/prosecutor/special counsel/witch-hunter is evil and liberal and unamerican

I think that Trump not debating is smart for him politically.  His best chance to not be there, have them all to try not to talk about him but the conversation will be all about him anyway, and then to hold some Newsmax softball interview railing against the modern media.  It's shit, but it would be effective.

Zero reason at this time for Trump to attend the debates.  In fact, as Dave said, his best play is to do simultaneous counter-programming with the debate, on Newsmax or OAN.  It's basically the equivalent of hijacking the debate and replacing it with one where he gets all the shine.

He won't be able to do that in the general, though, because if he tries to, the debate will likely be replaced with a Biden townhall.  Trump holding a town hall on Newsmax while Biden holds one on (say) ABC is not a good trade for Trump.

It's just about time to wrap this up:

Ron DeSantis Is Quietly Starting to Build His Off-Ramp From 2024 (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/us/politics/desantis-2024-race-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.O00.pU7P.TAibx1YfhqNN&smid=url-share)

After a humbling loss in Iowa, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is starting to signal that he is building an off-ramp from the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a seeming acknowledgment of his dim prospects of defeating Donald J. Trump given his low poll numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

So far this week, Mr. DeSantis has cast his eyes forward to 2028 with anecdotes about Trump supporters saying they would vote for him next time around if he runs again in four years. He has conceded that Mr. Trump’s thumping victory in Iowa on Monday made for a “good showing in terms of him winning the nomination.” And he has openly admitted that he believes he made a strategic mistake by icing out the traditional media earlier in the campaign.

It all amounted to a kind of frankness that Mr. DeSantis has not always shown in his public comments about the nominating contest — and a marked change in tone for a candidate who spent most of last year brashly promising he would win Iowa, which he lost by 30 points.

On Thursday, the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt asked Mr. DeSantis if his campaign would survive through the end of March. The Florida governor replied that things were not necessarily going to plan.

“Look, my goal is to win the nomination. Had we won Iowa, we would have been in a great spot,” Mr. DeSantis said, before suggesting there would be no point in staying in the race if it were to become clear that he could not win.

“I don’t want to be VP, I don’t want to be in the cabinet, I don’t want a TV show,” he said. “I’m in it to win it, and at some point if that’s not working out for you, I recognize that. This isn’t a vanity thing for me.”

---

DeSantis doesn't have a chance, and he never had a chance.  By the time 2028 rolls around, the GOP will either remain stuck on Trump (if he loses in 2024) or will have moved on to the hot new conservative firebrand (i.e. whoever Trump endorses, which will definitely not be Tiny D).

As I have been saying all along, DeSantis is the 2024 version of Scott Walker.  Walker was able to scrape out a couple of victories in bluish-purple Wisconsin, while DeSantis got a much more convincing win in much redder Florida, but at the end of the day, neither one of those things mean the victor has national appeal.

I don't think DeSantis would have been able to win even without Trump in the race because DeSantis is a charisma vacuum: he has zero ability to appeal to anyone but the hardcore culture warriors, and he's outright terrible when he tries to simulate interacting with normal humans.  He makes Mitt Romney look like Teddy Roosevelt.  But as long as Trump is on this side of the dirt, DeSantis doesn't even have a hypothetical chance.  He was drawing dead from the very start.

I heard an interesting thing from my pundits: Desantis needs a reason to leave.

You can't just finish 2nd and then quit; it weakens you politically.

Desantis kinda needs to get his ass kicked in New Hampshire so that he can step away, endorse Trump, and disappear for a while.  Had he lost to Haley in Iowa, he maybe could've done it then.  But he doesn't want to stay in until South Carolina just to get beat again....that's a long month of getting your ass kicked on a dead campaign.

Trump has this in the bag.  It's just a question of how much Haley support can build, what it means for Trump, and what it means for the future of Haley.  But I don't think anyone has a shot at the nomination other than Trump, short of a medical event.

Well, it didn't matter: Tiny D announced that he's dropping out and endorsing Trump (https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba).

This marks the end of his political career.  He will join Scott Walker in collecting wingnut welfare on the board of some right-wing organization.  And let's be clear that DeSantis will only go down in prestige from here... over the next few years, he is in for the standard ritual humiliation from Donald Trump that is dispensed to all failed challengers to the throne.

Haley is likely to go the John Kasich route, trying to position herself for the ever-pending post-Trump GOP.  She'll lose in 2024, and if/when there is a post-Trump GOP, she will be called out by the Chris Christie-types for being unwilling to speak directly against him.  She is also done.

Desantis quitting also pretty much ends Haley since now all of his votes go to Trump and he’ll beat Haley in the most pro-Haley state.

This is all sealed up.

I don't know that this is true (at least, the first part).  As CF can attest, much of DeSantis' support was from people who were looking for a not-Trump option.  So I think Haley will actually capture a notable chunk of Tiny D's (remaining) base of support.

That said, you could add literally all the DeSantis primary voters to Haley and it still wouldn't be enough to beat Trump.  So she will definitely lose either way.

Many DeSantis supporters will support Trump ... especially given that DeSantis endorsed him and Trump is speaking well of DeSantis. With that said there is definitely a portion of DeSantis supporters who will never vote Trump even if they don't have anyone else to vote for.

From the polling that I saw, Desantis supporters were also Trump supporters.  They just thought Trump had too much baggage and wish he didn't tweet so much.

Haley is the other lane of never-Trumpers that are the Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, John Kasich wing of the party.

No, hers may be larger but there are a bunch of DeSantis supporters in that camp with me being one of them. I have absolutely no plan on voting him and am willing to accept the fate of that. I have no idea how many of us there are but most of the DeSantis supporters I've spoken to seem to have a similar opinion. Like I said earlier ... we will see how much the sudden bro relationship ends up changing things but that will take time. With that said I fully expect he will be in jail by time the election rolls around so things will only get messier for Republicans anyway.

I'm sure Spider can find it but I said a long time ago that I thought the Republicans had no chance to win the general election because of Trump. There is just too much fraction in the party and it pretty much revolves around him. 

Christie was the never-Trumper lane (to the extent that such a thing can exist in today's GOP).
Haley and DeSantis are running in the Trump-without-the-baggage lane: they have zero criticism of Trump's policies or his administration, and just think he's personally too much of a distraction.

Agreed.

Haley herself isn't a never Trumper.  I just mean that she's the only candidate that they can go to within the GOP.

Right, but I think that the majority of DeSantis' support came from the Trump-without-the-baggage wing of the GOP.  So I don't think DeSantis' supporters will necessarily fall to Trump in the primary (in the general, they certainly will).

To draw a comparison: when Elizabeth Warren dropped out in 2020, her supporters didn't fall to Bernie.  They largely went to Biden, because Warren was the preferred candidate for progressive voters who don't support Bernie.  If you were on the socialist left and didn't already support Bernie (the most popular candidate representing that faction), it was because you had some problem with him as a candidate, and Warren dropping out doesn't erase those problems.  So it is with DeSantis and Trump.

That's just what the polling is saying.  Desantis voters have Trump as their 2nd choice, by big margins.  That could all change and at least they're open to someone who isn't Trump.  But I think this is all sealed up.

Trump and DeSantis' policies are very similar although DeSantis is definitely more conservative socially. For a DeSantis voter to vote Trump they would have to ignore the Trump persona and vote strictly on policies. Nikki is viewed as the establishment pick. I had a hardline Trump supporter tell me yesterday that he believes DeSantis wouldn't bow to big business so his big money backers left him and went to Haley. He completely sees her as a sell out to corporations like BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street ... who basically own everything. 

Saw this quote in an article and I think it pretty much sums up where we are right now.

'Nikki Haley's support is not about Nikki Haley. Only two percent say they are voting for her because of her policies,' said Johnson added.

'Instead it is about stopping Donald Trump. That, coupled with low enthusiasm for Haley, limits her voting pool in these primaries to a relatively small number of people, especially in later contests where undeclared voters cannot vote.

'Meanwhile Trump's supporters are energised for positive reasons: Trump's strength, his plans on the economy and – above all – his record in his first term.

'This is an election that Trump dominates: even his opposition knows it.'

Haley will probably just stay in, because it's cheap and there's not a lot to do.  There are no debates, campaigning doesn't matter.  She's already on the ballot.

Trump could deal with jail, death, medical incapacitation, scandal, etc.  Not likely, but she will have delegates and could potentially be the president, so it's an outside chance, but great rewards and all she has to do is nothing.

I posted this in another thread but it's relevant. I am seeing how some Trump supporters are supporting him just based off the last election alone. They would have supported someone else in the GOP for this election but they are still pissed that "America" chose a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," and it led us to much of the stuff we are currently dealing with. They think another round of Trump should be the punishment deserved to those who voted for Biden just because he wasn't Trump. For me, I just think it means the GOP will be putting up one of the few candidates who could actually loose to a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,".

Once again, Democrats are somehow responsible for the choices of Republican voters.  They "would have voted" for someone else, but we made them so MAD they just had to vote for the same guy they already voted for twice.  OK.

And to be clear: the thing that Democrats did that made them mad was... not allow Trump to beat Biden.  So I guess the point here is that if Trump had won in 2020, GOP voters wouldn't feel forced to vote for Trump again in 2024?  This is not the revelation you think it is.

P.S. Wouldn't this logic go both ways?  I mean, you don't see Democrats saying that Republicans made them vote for a senile old codger because they chose to put a corrupt admitted sexual assaulter in office in 2016, but if we're blaming others for our votes, that blade cuts both ways.

"It's the Democrats fault that the Republicans keep choosing shitty candidates" is quite the take.

Let me just add a bit to my last post.

Upon further reflection, given CF's previous statements on the primary, it's possible he was not offering a defense of these "Look what you made me do" voters, and was merely relaying their position.  If that is the case, considering that said position is entirely about blaming 2020 Democrats for the votes of 2024 Republicans, I think it would have been appropriate to include some push back on the claim being made by GOP voters; if you don't believe that Democrats are at fault for Republican votes, it's irresponsible to passively recite that attack without comment.

lol

I guess conversely, it's the Republicans fault that the Democrats keep choosing shitty candidates.

I predict that Trump will win the most states in primaries but he'll get arrested, or something, and it will be a big battle at the Republican National Convention, with Nikki Haley becoming the nominee.

I don't believe there's a political mechanism in place for this to happen.

Unless Trump leaves on his own, he cannot be removed.  They don't do the superdelegate thing like Democrats and furthermore, Trump changed a bunch of the rules to ensure that he gets all the delegates in the later States.

Trump could literally die.  That's Haley's best shot at the presidency.

Outside of that (and I don't even see how), Trump could be coaxed into stepping away -- maybe the polling after a conviction gets so bad for him that he's not going to win anyway, and then he takes a plea deal that includes not running for president.  But I don't think this is possible.

If that happened, I wonder how long it would take the GOP to ditch the MAGAites? Geez, I might even, one day, get to vote Republican again.

LOL ... you are part of the world who turns everything into being a victim. The GOP voters are 100% responsible for who they vote for regardless of "why" they voted that way.  Conservatism is basically accepting the declaration that we are, and should be, responsible for our choices and the consequences that follow.

CF, you've never heard me say that Dem voters would have supported someone better, but instead voted for Obama or Hillary or Biden because they were mad about how Republicans have acted so they are voting to punish everyone else.  That kind of mindset is literally childish.  It's what you would expect from a toddler.

I told you what I'm hearing when I've pressed them about why are they still supporting Trump. I'm still not voting for the guy so I guess you can interpret that any way you want.

BTW  ... I got to see "my guy" and his family Saturday night as they were at the same rodeo as we were this weekend.

Good on you.  Seriously.  As long as you don't vote for him in the general and you stick to your guns, this is how we save the country.

Then we'll normalize, get 4 years out, and hopefully the Dems will have some new blood and GOP will regain a platform and we can get back to some normalcy.

I appreciate the kudos but it really doesn't matter how I vote. Trump has destroyed the GOP and regardless of who gets the nomination they won't get the full support. After the last 3 years this should have been a cake walk victory for Republicans but they left themselves no chance.

As much as I hate everything that the modern GOP stands for, I do think it's healthy for the country to have a functioning, logical, opposition party to hold the other in check.  There needs to be a healthy amount of pushback, but not like this.

Also, Dems can't be the only grown-ups in the room.  They need to be forced to change and innovate, too.  And right now, we're just scrambling to make sure we don't fall into fascism and we retain American democracy.