The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I will use Dave's formula from last season to do this.

Sep 7   @Pittsburgh         .5
Sep 17   Buffalo                1           
Sep 24   Tennessee          1           
Oct 1   @Houston            .75           
Oct 8   @New England     .25           
Oct 15   @N.Y. Jets           .5   
Oct 22   Green Bay            1 (especially if Farve is QB)           
Week 8   BYE                     0
Nov 5   @Chicago              .5           
Nov 12   Kansas City         .75           
Nov 19   Minnesota           .75           
Nov 23   @Detroit               1           
Dec 3   Jacksonville            .75           
Dec 10   New England        .5     
Dec 17   @Buffalo               .5             
Dec 25   N.Y. Jets                1
Dec 31   @Indianapolis       .25

Predicted Record   11-5

Dave's formula is stupid.

11-5, but with totally different reasoning.

does the reasoning matter .. you guys both came to the same result !

I am less optimistic. 9-7, maybe 10-6.

yeah, but he added up probabilities, which seems silly.  I predicted wins and losses per game.

I am going to say 10-6

I told Fau and Joe Tex at lunch today that I thought Miami was in for a 9-7 or 10-6 season this year, so I am going to stick there... 10-6

I think it'll be clearer after the draft, but i'll go with 10-6 for now, we should post another like this after the draft and see if theres much difference in our opinions.

10-6, and AFC East champs.

being the reigning champion from last years prediction contest (and while i'm on the subject, i never received the prize for that anyway), i guess i have to take a stab at this one, using the same secret formula i used last time...

10-6.

and in a reversal of 2005 fortunes, the patriots finish 9-7, giving us the division.

however, if someone makes a contest, i think i'm going to have to go out on a limb just to vary my prediction a little like last time, otherwise we may have 15 winners with the same prediction...last year was much more challenging, as we had predictions ranging from like 4-12 to 12-4, or something like that.

Given that I've been drinking and my cerebral cortex is turned off, I'm going out on a big optimistic limb and picking 12-4, division champs.

Sep 7   @Pittsburgh   8:30pm       W    
Sep 17   Buffalo   1:00pm              W
Sep 24   Tennessee   1:00pm        W  
Oct 1   @Houston   1:00pm           W
Oct 8   @New England   1:00pm        W  
Oct 15   @N.Y. Jets   4:15pm           W
Oct 22   Green Bay   1:00pm       W    
Week 8   BYE              
Nov 5   @Chicago   1:00pm           W
Nov 12   Kansas City   1:00pm       W    
Nov 19   Minnesota   1:00pm          W
Nov 23   @Detroit   12:30pm          W
Dec 3   Jacksonville   1:00pm          L
Dec 10   New England   1:00pm     L    
Dec 17   @Buffalo   1:00pm           W
Dec 25   N.Y. Jets   8:30pm           W
Dec 31   @Indianapolis   1:00pm   L


13-3, with a bye...We lose to Indy because they will be battling with another team for a wild card spot. We will be resting our starters.

11-5!   ;D ;D ;D

Frimp - If we're 11-0, how the hell are we losing to Jacksnonville at home....

12-4 with losses @ Pittsburgh, @ New England, @ Chicago, and @ Indianapolis.  Division Champs and the #3 seed in the playoffs.

Fluke.  ;D

12-4...I'm ever the optimist.    ;D

^^^^

Great, but I've got them at 13-3.  ;D

9-7

     11-5, AFC East Champions.

I think I am going to go with 11-5 also!!!!!

Looking at New Enlgand's schedule, I have them at 10-6, and buffalo and the jets are shaping up to be both sub-500 teams.

I think we get the #4 seed in the playoffs this season.

I really don't understand the 10+ wins hype being generated here. A couple of key injuries on defense and it's a losing season.

The glass is half FULL!!!!

I aim for the stars!

All these predictions are "on paper" as they say.  Of course you can't predict an injury, or how a team will bounce back from one.  thus, all things being the same, te optimism comes from an assumption of a healthy squad year round.

I think another 9-7 record is a safe bet.  A 10-6 record for this year's Dolphins would be a great job, and anything above that would be fantastic for this group.

The Dolphins are 1 year removed from being one of the top 3 AFC teams.  So this year, 9-7.

I think I just saw a pig fly by my window...

No, you can't accurately predict one injury, but you can look at depth, and make an assumption that those players will be called upon.  Which players and how long, etc, is just speculation.  I do think you have to look at the bench when preparing a record, though.  Teams don't start a year and end it with the same guys.  ...and I really don't see many 2nd stringers (especially on the secondary) stepping up to fill the shoes in case of injury.

Here's how I see it:

Sep 7   @Pittsburgh         .3
Sep 17   Buffalo                .7           
Sep 24   Tennessee          .7           
Oct 1   @Houston            .5           
Oct 8   @New England     .3           
Oct 15   @N.Y. Jets           .7   
Oct 22   Green Bay            .7         
Week 8   BYE                     0
Nov 5   @Chicago              .5           
Nov 12   Kansas City         .5           
Nov 19   Minnesota           .7           
Nov 23   @Detroit               .7           
Dec 3   Jacksonville            .7           
Dec 10   New England        .5     
Dec 17   @Buffalo               .5             
Dec 25   N.Y. Jets                .9
Dec 31   @Indianapolis       .3

Overall, it looks to be a 9-7 season.

Tommy, here's where we disagree:

1st, at Pittsburgh.  You can't think that we're even.  They won the Super Bowl and are a much more complete team than we are.  ...plus, it's in Pittsburgh.  Give us 50/50 odds on that is very generous.

Next, the KC game.  We don't match up well with KC at all.  Our cover two defense gets rocked by Tony Gonzalez, because our linebackers can't cover him off the line, and their running game (and especially flat passes and RB dumpoffs across the middle) aren't good for us.  We always get soundly beaten by KC, even when they appear to be a team on par with us, overall.  They are strong, where we are weak, however, and this year looks no different.  The only saving grace is that the game is at home.

The last thing is that I revamped my system a little bit this year, because I was giving too much strength to home field advantage (although it canceled out) and the grading scale didn't have enough units.  I see that you have 5 games as surefire wins, but no games with 0 possibility to cancel them out.  It's safe to say that a team worse than us will get the better of us sometime during the year.  It always happens that way.

The cows finally came home, over here at this end of town...

It's not often that I agree with JTex about the Dolphins, but I think he's right on.  I think 10 - 6 is a safe bet. 

You might ask - if the fish were 9 - 7 last year, and we have made some key improvements, why wouldn't the improvement be more than 1 game?  First, I don't think we were as good as our record last year.  It's my opinion, so don't feel the need to correct me.  Second, while we improved at some positions, we have lost other key players (Ricky and Madison) and I think there are some big question marks.  How will this team gel?  How will Ronnie do if he has to carry the full load?  How will Dante come back after the injury? 

Right now (before the draft, before a final decision on Ricky's appeal, before we know when Dante will play) I think 10 - 6 would be a great record. 

Finally some realism....I still agree with the 8-8 to 9-7...

I kind of see it this way...
Let's be honest,Zach is great going from sideline,to sideline a tackling machine.He's also getting slower,and the wear and tear on his body is starting show.He hasn't played a full 16 games since 2002.

Channing Crowder,Played well,he'll be our future MLB.He's a sideline,to sideline tackling machine.No sacks,or int's...

Donnie Spragan,and Sedrick Hodge are average....Good depth But not playmakers

Jason Taylor,when we drop him into coverage,he's just an average Lb.He's most effective rushing the passer.

The Rest of out D-line isn't getting any younger...

The secondary is scarey....(scarey as in not good)
Will Poole coming off an injury
Will Allen has never lived up to expectations,not known for being a ball hog..
Travis Daniels is improving
Renaldo Hill...?? ?? ?? Who knows...

We don't have a Playmaking Saftey...Tavares Tillman,played well near the end of the season...

The offense...
Culpepper will not have seen live action in almost a year,he's going to have to shake some rust off...Need time to build chemistry...

L.J. Shelton is not a MAJOR upgrade,3rd team in 3 years...

We really lack that 1 or 2 dominant o-lineman
Stockard Mcdougal was a bust for us last year.
Vernon Carey Is improving,but isn't that dominant guy on the right side.
Mckinney sucks...
Wade Smith is coming off the broken arm,question mark on how he'll do...
Rex Hadnot improving,but not a great pass blocker.good runblocker
Jeno James I really don't know about,he's just good enough to start.
Damian Mcintosh struggles in passing situations,a penalty magnet.

Depth at WR,is a concern...Lack of flat out speed... If something happens to Chris Chambers early, and we lose him for more than a game...Booker,Campbell,and Welker...none of them is a #1 WR...

I have high hopes for Teyo johnson,Randy Mcmicheal spent too much time pass blocking.

Hopefully we'll see more 2 RB sets with the addition of Fred Beasley

I just feel...even on paper..there are way too many question marks.I feel the lack of playmakers will cost us...Just the way i see it...I just don't see the 11-5,12-4, type of season..with alot of luck 10-6 at Best..

11-5, why? because some people are forgetting that we have Nick Saban as a coach and not Wanny. We have a much better coaching staff then we had with Wanny.

Nick Knows what he wants and how he goes along doing it. he's a hard ass coach better then the lovey dovey coach we had. Nick also knows how to get the best out of players.

Did anyone expect Gus to be a capable QB in miami? no. Did anyone expect us to
have a winning record? no.  So my reasons for putting us at 11-5 is because Nick Saban knows how to coach. and because of the additions we had, but mostly because of nick saban

All the coaching in the world won't help if you don't have players/Talent...Nick Saban can't control injuries,he can't throw the ball,catch the ball,pick up a blitz,sack the Qb,Intercept a pass.....

Thank you Brian.  Mad props.  That formula is beyond stupid.  10-6.  Tommy should get a job with the bcs!

I'm curious as to why my formula is stupid, when it's just weighing probabilities.  The fact that I'm altering for home field makes no difference on the outcome, since we have the same number of home and away games.

It's the same thing that all of you are doing.  I'd hardly call it a formula, anyway, since it's just my arbitrary predictions on how likely we are to win games.

Most of your predictions are done much the same way, I bet.  You figure that we'll lose one to either the Bills or Jets....that's the same as setting all of the games to .75.

Remind me not to get you to do my taxes ;-)

Really?  Predictions before the draft?  (Insert Jerry MqGuire here)..."I lost my best player the night BEFORE THE DRAFT!"

AHEM.

per Dave's method

10.398 - 5.602

This is what I think the Dolphins will do in the 2006 NFL season:

Sept. 7-    @ Pittsburgh- L
Sept. 17-   Buffalo-       W
Sept. 24-   Tennessee- W
Oct. 1-       @ Houston- W
Oct. 8-       @ N. E.      - L
Oct. 15-     @ NY Jets  - W
Oct. 22-     Green Bay-  W
WEEK 8-  BYE
Nov. 5-      @ Chicago-  L
Nov. 12-   Kansas City- W
Nov. 19-   Minnesota-   W
Nov. 23-    @ Detroit-   W
Dec. 3-     Jacksonville- L
Dec. 10-   N. E.-           W
Dec. 17-   @ Buffalo-   L
Dec. 25-   NY Jets-      W
Dec. 31-  @ Indy-       L

I'll say 10-6 at best with a possible Division Championship with an early exit in the playoffs, as usual. I have to be real about this, seeing the Dolphins go 8-8 & 9-7 most of the time.  Right now, this 13-3 & 12-4 is probably a little unrealistic. Because do you realize that with the 16 game expansion back in '78 that the Dolphins best season is the '84 season when they went 14-2?? Check out below:

1978- 11- 5 - Division Champs- early exit from playoffs
1979- 10- 6- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs @ Pittsburgh
1980- 8-8
1981- 11-4-1- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs @ San Diego  :'(
1982- 7-2- (strike season)- Division Champs- Lost Super Bowl to Redskins  :'(
1983- 12-4- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs- (Seattle)  :'(
1984- 14-2- Division Champs- Lost Super Bowl to SF 49ers  :'(
1985- 12-4- Division Champs- Lost AFC Championship to New England  :'(
1986- 8-8 ???
1987- 8-7 (strike year) ???
1988- 6-10 >:(
1989- 8-8 >:(
1990- 12-4 (2nd Place)- 7-1 in Division (weak), then played Cleveland (3-13), Phoenix Cardinals (5-11), Pittsburgh & Seattle (both 9-7, which is borderline "average"), & a
10-6 Eagles team. Escaped out of the Wild-Card Playoff game 17-16 thanks to, naturally "another Marino comeback", then got our butts handed to us in the Div. Round- 44-34 by Buffalo!! >:(
1991- 8-8 >:(
1992- 11-5- Division Champs (tiebreaker)- This was our last real shot with Marino as this year we actually got a bye week in the playoffs. Beat san Diego 31-0 in the Div. Playoffs, actually "HOSTED" the AFC Championship, & once again, got our butts handed to us, 29-10 by Buffalo!!! >:( :'(
1993- 9-7 >:(
1994- 10-6- Division Champs (another tiebreaker)- won WC Playoffs, Lost Div. Playoffs @ San Diego. >:( :'(
1995- 9-7 Lost WC Playoffs @ (once again) Stinking Buffalo!!! >:(
1996- 8-8 :-\
1997- 9-7 Lost WC Playoffs @ New England :-[ :'(
1998- 10-6 Won WC (Buffalo-FINALLY!!), Lost Div. Playoffs @ Denver 38-3  :'(
1999- 9-7 (after an 8-2 start) Won WC Playoffs, Lost Div. Playoffs @Jacksonville 62-7 in the biggest Playoff upset in NFL history. Marino then retires. :'( :'(
2000- 11-5- Division Champs- Won WC Playoff, Lost Div. Playoff :(
2001- 11-5- (2nd Place)- Lost WC Playoffs to Baltimore Ravens :(
2002- 9-7 - (no Playoffs) >:(
2003- 10-6- (no Playoffs) >:(
2004- 4-12- (no playoffs) >:(
2005- 9-7- (no Playoffs) >:(

This 4 year absense from the playoffs looks surprisingly like that period from 1986-1991,  (4 straight years & 5 out of 6 years with no playoff appearances.) Also, when you do the math, the last 4 years win/loss totals (2002-2005), add up to be 32-32, which equals out to 4 straight 8-8 seasons!!! I love the Dolphins dearly, but i get so tired of all the mediocrity and the December/Playoff slumps!!! I would love to see them come out and dominate one entire season and win a modern day Super Bowl Championship. If the NFL played 8 game seasons instead of 16, the Dolphins would be some real Butt-kickers!!! The first half of the year they're usually 6-2 or 5-3 most of the time. Then comes the dreaded slump- it's like as long as they can win 8 or 9 games any more, they're satisfied and just give up!! As long as they can keep their average up, they're happy!! But, I hate it!! Love the Dolphins but hate the end results EVERY YEAR!!!!!!

7-9

Dave's formula is stupid because all he's doing is just putting a number to his subjective view of whether we are going to win.  And he shouldn't need a formula to count to 16!  When faced with a 16 game schedule, how could there be any easier way to predict a record than by looking at each game, and guessing who's going to win by factoring in all the normal football stuff from stats to intangibles.  And do that for each game and then count it all up. 

lovehate,


Then what do you do if there are several games that you truly consider 50/50 games? If you count them all victories or all defeats, you are being unrealistic. If you count every other as a win, you are using Dave's "formula", even if you don't think you are.

Exactly.  The fact that I'm actually putting a .5 next to two games, rather than putting a W (1) or an L (0) next to one of each, the end result it the same.

5-11. A solid 5-11 though... ;D

Sep 7   @Pittsburgh        L - this is a given
Sep 17   Buffalo              L - Buffalo is just a better team             
Sep 24   Tennessee         L - Youngs first action 16/18 4 td's 122 yd rushing           
Oct 1   @Houston             W - Only cause Houston misses GW fG       
Oct 8   @New England      L - Ummmm, NE owns you         
Oct 15   @N.Y. Jets            L - Ummmm, Jets own you   
Oct 22   Green Bay             L- Bert picks the Dolphin game to be only game w/o INT     
Week 8   BYE                     Only Miami can lose on a bye week       
Nov 12   Kansas City          L - Larry Johnson 300 yds rushing vs. decrepit D       
Nov 19   Minnesota             W - This is your free one
Nov 23   @Detroit               W- Even you are better then Detroit, barely         
Dec 3   Jacksonville              L - Jacksonville too physical     
Dec 10   New England         L - Ummmm, its New England
Dec 17   @Buffalo                 W - Buffalo gives you a gift and plays third stringers         
Dec 25   N.Y. Jets                W - Herm Edwards starts Brooks Bolinger

I assume you're questioning how I came up with .75.

We play the Bills twice and the Jets twice.  ...that's 4 games.  If you figure that we'll lose one of those 4 games, it puts us at 3 wins and 1 loss....or a 75% success rate.

Fixed it for ya.

I think the best way to determine game outcomes in advance, is to assign strength values to each team and then do outright comparisons i.e. Pittsburgh could be like 9.5 versus the Dolphin team at, say hmmm, 5.5 and adjust points for home field, back-to-back road games, and even bye weeks if you want. The NFL schedules of every team have to be processed the same way. I found that once you add point to Miami for HFA, then on Pitt's schedule you have to do a matching subtraction, and the same for each adjustment. Not easy to get it straight, but the thing is debugged by adding the resultant standings of all teams. It will not balance at first, so you select every team and recheck the values week-to-week, until it balances.

It still comes down to using accurate strength ratings, but the probabilities are determined after the game comparison rather than a priori, and are based on the point difference obtained. I found that in some weeks, there were a whole bunch of tight spreads and other weeks had wider margins. You could asses the fairness of each team's schedule also, for example the San Diego Chargers played the most back-to-back road games and teams after their byes, so they did not make the playoffs.

I used well-known publications' ratings like Lindy's, adjusted for pre-season action and trades or injuries. Team strength ratings have to be adjusted week-to-week this way, so that changes the predicted outcomes thoughout the season. The errors that cancelled out do surface sometime during these strength rating adjustments.

Last season the season's predictions were cake, since most here followed the pack, just like nobody so far guessed an 8-8 2006. The Fins are definitely rebuilding their secondary and the QB / offensive coordinator situation is still up in the air, making it a hard problem for me to settle out. Ricky Williams is now gone. The problem of having too many chefs may affect the quality of the soup, also.

So I'll stick with my low-ball 8-8 until I iron out the schedule, and then make a final estimate. The key is to understand the other teams completely, and not focus solely on the Dolphins facing the rest of the NFL. I remember Saban as not a winning coach, but as a team-builder. The offense and secondary may yet be a work in progress, but I think the Phins will hold their own and not be a division chump as long as Saban presides.

I think the best way to determine games is to watch the game. Put your friggin' calculator away, and ENJOY the game!

Forgot 2 NE wins.  Now at 16.7%   :'(

I doubt Herman Edwards will be traded back to the Jets.

With the longest current winning streak in the NFL during the regular season with 6 wins.  Miami continues that streak with a solid start this season.  Improving more and more and building momentum as the season progresses as they did last season.  12-4.