Who wins the divison if miami wins out

[raptorsfan29]

(pending NE, and Miami win out) looking over somethings i think the standings would be all at 11-5

all would have 4-2 division records NY and Miami would have 8-4 conference record. and this is if miami beats new york in the final week,

[fyo]

First 3-way tie-breaker is 3-way-head-to-head. That would be a tie here, since we would all have lost one and won one against each other.

Second tie-breaker is division, where (as you say) we would all be 4-2.

Third is NOT conference, but common games. For us, that would be games against the AFC West and NFC West. We're 3-0 against the AFC West, 4-0 by winning out, and would be 3-1 against the NFC West, in the very hypothetical 11-5 scenario. The Patriots lost against the Chargers, so they' be 7-1 as well. The Jets lost to the Chargers AND the Broncos, so they would be knocked out at this point.

It then starts over with head-to-head between us and the Patriots. The first 4 tie-breakers are tied (head-to-head, division, common opponents and conference), leaving strength of victory next on the list. That is the total won-loss record of all the teams you've BEATEN. This becomes a real mess to calculate... without doing the math, we have a Chargers win instead of a Cardinal win, compared to the Patriots. That would PROBABLY give the Patriots a couple extra points in strength of victory (Cardinals have 7 right now, with the Chargers at 4). Against non-common opponents, we have a losses to the Texans and Ravens, where the Patriots have losses against the Steelers and Colts. That would give New England +4 points in Strength of SCHEDULE (the next tie-breaker), but doesn't contribute to Strength of VICTORY.

So, without doing the math, it looks like the Patriots would win Strength of Victory, and certainly Strength of Schedule (of SoV happened to be a tie).

In other words, in all probability, the winner of the division if NE, NYJ and MIA wind up with an 11-5 record, would be...

The New England Patriots

[raptorsfan29]

oh, my bad.

who came up with these tiebreaking procedures anyways, what does beating NFC west have to do with the AFC.  Conference record would seem the most sense,

[fyo]

what does beating NFC west have to do with the AFC.  Conference record would seem the most sense,

I disagree. The Patriots are penalized for winning the division last year in that they have to face the #1 team from the AFC North and South, whereas we get to play the last-place teams of those divisions because we LOST our division last year. Why should we benefit from that, beyond getting easier games in the first place?

What does the NFC have to do with the AFC? Well, we both played them. To me, it makes sense to look at team we've both played instead of including games where we have different opponents.

[Spider-Dan]

It then starts over with head-to-head between us and the Patriots. The first 4 tie-breakers are tied (head-to-head, division, common opponents and conference), leaving strength of victory next on the list.

Conference record would not be tied if NE and MIA win out.

NE would be 4-0 vs. NFC West (and therefore 7-5 vs. AFC).
MIA would be 3-1 vs. NFC West (and therefore 8-4 vs. AFC).

MIA wins at conference tiebreaker.  This also applies if NYJ wins every game but the one against us, as they would be 4-0 vs. NFC West.

Right now, today, MIA and NYJ control their own destiny for the division championship.  Your assessment is actually the opposite of the truth; NE is the only team of the three that needs outside help in order to win the division.

[fyo]

Conference record would not be tied if NE and MIA win out.

Your assessment is actually the opposite of the truth; NE is the only team of the three that needs outside help in order to win the division.

I resent the last part . The opposite of the truth is generally considered to be a "lie". Unless you believe my purpose was to deceive, that's an incorrect assessment... There is no question I was wrong, however. For some reason, I hadn't included Steelers loss in the Patriots' conference record. *shrug*

Right now, today, MIA and NYJ control their own destiny for the division championship.

True, but it's worth noting that if both Miami and New England win out (the original premise), the Jets still lose out due to the "common opponents" tie-breaker.

We would then win the head-to-head with the Patriots.

All the possibilities make my head hurt, but I'm thrilled that we can even speculate (wildly, admittedly) about ties (that include the Dolphins) atop the division -- or even winning it -- IN DECEMBER.

[Spider-Dan]

In the immortal words of George Costanza, it's not a lie if you believe it.

I didn't mean to imply deception.  That sentence should have read, "Your assessment is actually the opposite of reality."

[YoFuggedaboutit]

The Miami Herald is reporting if the Dolphins run the table these final four games, they'll win the division. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If we assume the Dolphins and NE win all their remaining games and the Jets win all but the Fins game then

Each team would be 11-5

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

   1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs)

split


2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

each team would be 4-2

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.   


Mia & Pats would both be 9-1; Jets 7-3.

4. Conf

MIA 8-4
NE 7-5

[raptorsfan29]

so i was right about the conference games, good.

one thing i was thinking about is what about if buffalo wins all their games and miami beats new york.

[Spider-Dan]

If BUF wins all of their remaining games and MIA wins all of their games except @BUF, head-to-head and division games would be tied.  Next tiebreaker is common games:

Against AFCW and NFCW, MIA would be 7-1, BUF would be 6-2.

MIA wins.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If BUF wins all of their remaining games and MIA wins all of their games except @BUF, head-to-head and division games would be tied.  Next tiebreaker is common games:

Against AFCW and NFCW, MIA would be 7-1, BUF would be 6-2.

MIA wins.

Lets also assume Pats win all but Bills and Jets win all but Bills and Fins

All four would be 10-6.

1. Head to head

all four would be 1-1 against each other team.

2. Division

all four would be 3-3

3. Common games

NE 7-1
MIA 7-1
Jets 5-3
Bills 6-2

4. Conf record

MIA 7-4
NE 6-5

[Spider-Dan]

Wow, MIA has really set itself up well.

Now to go out and lose a couple of games, making tiebreakers irrelevant...

[ochizon]

Wow, MIA has really set itself up well.

Now to go out and lose a couple of games, making tiebreakers irrelevant...

Considering all of the current injuries, I wouldnt doubt it.

This will be a hell of a test.

[NADS]

The Miami Herald is reporting if the Dolphins run the table these final four games, they'll win the division. 

Thanks for the easy assessment.