Here is a football coach with serious stones

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888

Never punts and does an onside kick 75% of the time. 

[CF DolFan]

I like the theory.  Obviously i wouldn't do this in the NFL but as far as high school and having a productive offense I don't see why not.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I like the theory.  Obviously i wouldn't do this in the NFL but as far as high school and having a productive offense I don't see why not.

Why not? 

If it wasn't for a "high school offense" Mia would not be in the playoff hunt.

[Spider-Dan]

TMQ on ESPN.com had an article about this guy.  The statistics are sound; most defenses are not geared towards stopping 4-down offenses (which is part of the reason why teams drive seemingly at will at the end of games), so never punting effectively makes your offense into a semi-juggernaut.

The major problem with this strategy is political; most fans are used to the conventional wisdom of you-punt-on-fourth-down-period, so a coach that tries this strategy will find himself out of a job in short order if he doesn't see immediate success.

Interestingly enough, this strategy can arguably be traced back to our very own Don Shula.  The coach of the article in question said that he got the idea from reading a TMQ column a while ago, and TMQ himself got the idea at a Hall of Fame reception:

A year ago at the Hall of Fame reception in Canton, Ohio I found myself sitting between Bill Walsh and Don Shula. I posed this question: In a day when the Bears line up five-wide and Texas Tech passes 60 times a game, are there any fundamental innovations that have not been tried? Walsh supposed someone might try using trick formations for an entire game. Shula twinkled his eyes and said: "Someday there will be a coach who doesn't punt."

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The major problem with this strategy is political; most fans are used to the conventional wisdom of you-punt-on-fourth-down-period, so a coach that tries this strategy will find himself out of a job in short order if he doesn't see immediate success.

Isn't that the problem when ever you do anything new?  If the wildcat had crashed and burned with a final score of NE 45 Fins 0.  This board would have been demanding Henning be fired. But it worked so now he is a hero.



   

[Spider-Dan]

If the Wildcat had crashed and burned, it simply wouldn't have been used as much as it was.  It would have been a non-story.

The thing about the "no punt" strategy is that it's not a matter of occasionally choosing not to punt; teams already do that.  It's about embracing the strategy of four-down-football, which means that you approach a 3rd-and-6 with the mindset that a 5-yard-gain is an acceptable result.  You can't just half-ass it... you need to commit to a no-punting philosophy.  And that's the part that puts your butt on the line.

[Sunstroke]

Penalty-mania backs you up and now it's 4th and 32 at your own 1.

What do you do?

I like the idea of no-punting, but sometimes it just isn't the smartest thing to do.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Penalty-mania backs you up and now it's 4th and 32 at your own 1.

What do you do?

I like the idea of no-punting, but sometimes it just isn't the smartest thing to do.

Okay going for it on 4 and 32 is probably not a good idea....how often does that occur to a team?  3 times a season?

But if it is 4-32 on your own 1 I guessing the other team is going to get TD before you do no matter what you do in this situation. 

Lets say 4 and 10 on your own 1.  If you punt the other team is going to be starting their drive in FG range anyway.   This gives you  a chance. 

Without running the numbers I have to guess the odds of converting on 4 and 10 is better than the odds are of stopping the other team from scoring a TD if you punt from deep within your own end zone having snapped the ball on the one. 

[bsfins]

The coach probably grew up on John Madden Football...Hell you just have a punter on the roster because you're required too....

[Spider-Dan]

Penalty-mania backs you up and now it's 4th and 32 at your own 1.

What do you do?

Straight from the horse's mouth (Kevin Kelley, the aforementioned coach of the Pulaski Academy Bruins):

"They give you four downs, not three," Kelley told TMQ. "You should take advantage. Suppose we had punted from our own 5. The odds are the opposition will take over at about the 35, and from there the stats say they have an 80 percent chance of scoring. So even if you only have a 50 percent chance of converting the first down, isn't that better than giving the other side an 80 percent chance of scoring?" For fourth-and-short attempts, the odds of converting are a lot better than 50 percent.

Now, obviously you don't have a 50% chance of converting 4th-and-32 at your own 1.  But at this point, your opponent is almost certainly going to score anyway, so does it really matter what you do?  You'd be just as well off running a fake punt.

[Sunstroke]

You'd be just as well off running a fake punt.

If you never punt, I can't imagine a fake punt working too well.

I understand the philosophy, and have seen the numbers...but still think a more moderate approach to the never-punt plan is a better way to go.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If you never punt, I can't imagine a fake punt working too well.

If you never punt and they have nobody lined up to catch the punt.....then make sure you have a QB or running back that can punt past the safety.   

And the thing that interest me more than the no punt approach is the onside kicks. 

[Spider-Dan]

If you never punt, I can't imagine a fake punt working too well.

I understand the philosophy, and have seen the numbers...but still think a more moderate approach to the never-punt plan is a better way to go.

Because of the possibility of 4th-and-32 from your 1?

There are obviously situations where punting would probably be the best option, and it's not particularly difficult to invent one off of the top of your head.  But right now (even under the conventionally accepted wisdom of kick-it-away-on-4th) I would be willing to bet that this season, there have been a great many more instances of a team going for it on 4th down than there have been of a team facing 4th-and-30+ from inside their own 5.

Furthermore, I don't think your hypothetical situation is really a fair evaluation of the strategy.  This would be like evaluating the Wildcat by saying "well what if you're on the opponent's 5-yard-line and your RB throws an interception that's returned 98 yards for a touchdown?  Best to play it safe and not use the Wildcat at all."

Is it a long shot to go for it on 4th and 32?  Sure.  But the flip side is, if you never punt, you will allow exactly zero punt returns for touchdowns.  Even if you went hardcore never-punt-no-matter-what, I think the number of big punt returns that you necessarily prevent would outweigh these crazy 4th-and-40 scenarios.