MaineDolFan
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« on: August 10, 2009, 02:25:08 pm » |
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So the question is this - are the Boston Red Sox truly a third place team? Since the all-star break they are 8-14, only four teams in the league are worse. That mark could actually be worse, they were very lucky in their blow out win over the O's...that game could have gotten away from them.
Let's look at what is right with Boston and we can start with the starting pitching. In the Yankees series they got seven innings out of Buchholz, who allowed only two runs. Seven innings out of Beckett, who allowed none. Seven innings out of Lester, allowing one. A legit playoff team that receives that type of starting pitching should win two out of three of those games. Boston lost all three.
Who blew the games? It's easy to look at the bullpen however it's not really fair to do so. A lot of people are on Bard right now, the rookie fireballer. It isn't like a no one hit bombs off Bard. He gave up big flies to Longoria, Damon and Tex. Those are three pretty damn good players. The Longoria and Damon home runs were crushed...the Tex shot would be a a routine fly ball in most ball parks.
Boston's bullpen has still been nails. They have an extra innings tilt in Toronto after the all-star break, another in Baltimore. They were pressed into a 13 inning game in Tampa and then a 15 game in New York. They all performed well, minus a hiccup or two along the way (which happens with all bullpens).
Defense? Boston's infield has not committed an error in the past 15 games. Youkilis has an error in left field on Saturday that was harmless. It seems that, on defense, the combo of Youk at third, Green at SS, Petey at and V-Mart at C is working out well. That was on display during the Buccholz start as Boston's infield took away some well hit balls and made timely plays.
So if your top three starting pitchers are doing reasonable well, the bullpen is pretty nails when it needs to be and the defense is playing up to par...wouldn't that indicate that the team's fortunes will turn about at some point soon?
Maybe not.
Starting pitching and defense wins titles. But make no mistake...you need hitting in this league to win. And timely hitting.
Let's run down the standard starting nine and talk about each hitter.
1 - Ellsbury. Dude is hitting the cover off the ball. Even after this brutal Yankees series he is still hitting .300 with 50 stolen bases. Where he is killing this line up is his .348 OBP. Your lead off guy HAS to be on more than he is. The guy setting your table is only putting the plates up there. You can't eat without forks and spoons.
2 - Pedroia. Also hitting .300 and has a very good OBP for the two hole at .373. Pedroia is getting to second base at almost a 1-4 clip when he hits. This highlights the issue with Ellsbury. Your 2 hole has pounded 8 home runs, 32 doubles and has drawn almost 50 walks...and yet only has 48 RBI? Ellsbury isn't completely at fault in this. Since June 1st there are only a handful of batters that have hit into more double plays than Pedroia.
3 - Martinez. This trade should end up paying off for Boston. Martinez is a freakin' RBI machine. That said...he can't do a ton of damage if the top portion of the order isn't doing their jobs. If V-Mart is coming to the plate and the bases are empty, which has been the case more often than not since the trade, he can't alter too much of the game's progress by himself. He isn't a huge HR threat, Martinez is more of a doubles machine. In his last ten games V-Mart has 13 hits, 8 RBI and has drawn 6 walks. Those are numbers that pretty damn good for your #3. 13 hits in 10 games...that RBI number should be more like 12-13.
4 - Youkilis. Nothing gets Kev out of step. He is Boston's best offensive threat game in, game out. Not to sound like a broken record...but the clean up hitter needs something to clean up. In the past ten games, including the Yankees series, Kevin is hitting a crisp .310 with a sick .421 OBP. The OBP is pretty critical for the #5 hitter piece. 17 hits in the last ten and...8 RBI? Half of which came in one game? Kevin is doing what he should do. He is getting hits. 27 doubles. 20 HR. He would be clearing the bases...if there were anyone to clear.
Let's stop there for one second because I ID's a pretty big pot hole in the line up, 1-4. That being Ellsbury not getting on as much as he should and Petey grounding into a DP a lot when Ellsbury is on. That said, 1-4 is easily fixed. I'm not worried about 1-4. You've got average with all four guys. You have power with two. You have extra base power with three. You have stupid sick speed at the top. This all falls apart when...
5 - Bay. His home run in Tampa Bay was his first home run in almost a month. He is hitting .240 since the all-star break. 3 RBI. Yep, 3. His 21 HR / 75 RBI look great on paper until you realize he hasn't done much of anything since about 9 days before the break. His average has gone from .290 to .252 on the season, and his OBP has gone from .410 to .380, all huge drops.
6 - Lowell / Ortiz. I'm slotting Ortiz here, although he's hit #3 from time to time since the break. The real offensive punch comes with Lowell, however you can see the pain on the guy's face when he runs the bases. Ortiz is giving you nothing. .170 since the all-star break with really nothing in the stat line to show for anything. Lowell still has some punch and would be effective in this slot as a regular / full time DH. Problem is that with a platoon situation no one can get into a pattern.
7 - Drew. Complete bust thus far this season. Hitting under .250 / 12 / 43 for a guy making 15 million? Drew should be a guy you can plunk into #3 and see 25/90 every year. He showed signs coming out of the funk prior to tweaking his hammy and now he's right back in the slump.
8 - Tek. Worthless. Completely worthless and almost an auto-out at this point.
9 - Green. See #8.
The question is this - does Boston have the talent to hit in the AL East against the pitching that Toronto, Tampa and New York can throw at them? If Drew isn't able to turn things around and 7, 8, and 9 continue to hit below .250, the answer is no...no matter 1-4 is able to do from this point out you can't have three completely weak links in the lineup like the current 7, 8 and 9.
If Drew is able to hit .270 from here out and increase his power, Boston's offense could regain some punch. Boston has interest in Cristian Guzman, who is hitting .315 on the season. He automatically increases Boston's output from #8, which would move Tek to #9.
I don't think Boston is toast, not with the pitching they have and the potential talent 1-4 and potential turn around talent 5-7. But they need to make a move and get Green out of the line up and make Tek's contributions gravy on top of anything else.
I think Theo & company saw the offensive problems heading down the pike...this is why they made plays in the offseason for Tex and even a swing + miss on Hanley in Florida. V-Mart helps...but won't solve the problem alone.
Thoughts?
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