I don't buy it. Everyone overpays in free agency for good players and he is very good. It's not my money and I only care that he is still here.
According to Over the Cap, Ogbah’s signing bonus is just $13 million ($3.25 million per season) and his salary is just $4 million in 2022. Add in his roster bonus, and Ogbah’s cap hit for this upcoming year is just $7.6 million.
In 2023, Ogbah will get $15 million in guaranteed salary, bringing his cap hit to $18.6 million. In 2024, $4 million of his $14.93 million salary is guaranteed against injury. And, in the final year of his contract, Ogbah will have a cap hit of $20.15 million.
Notably, the Dolphins can cut Ogbah after 3 years and save 17 of the 20 million cap hit. There's even a reasonable out after 2 years with "just" a $6.5 million cap hit, saving $12.5 million.
If he plays well for at least 2 years, it's a good contract for the Dolphins. That's the gamble.