Make no mistake

[Downunder Dolphan]

There are some good points here, but man, also so much I disagree with...

This game wasn't that close. It was all Buffalo in the first quarter. Waddle drops a bomb that was right on the money and had another get poked out by terrific defense on a ball that was a little short. X got beat easily on a long pass play. Buffalo receivers caught anything close to them. 1 handed grab by a TE for a TD. Another that was scooped off the ground for a terrific catch. Anytime no one was open, Allen ran for a 1st down. Allen didn't have to be terrific because all his team mates were. Thompson got zero help. Offensive line never opened up any running game. WR's couldn't get open and dropped passes when they did. TE's did nothing to help. Tua wouldn't have won this game, Thompson had no chance.  

Why am I saying this? Because don't fall into the trap that Miami played them tough. They get credit for not getting blown out but the game was never really in doubt. Buffalo let their foot off the gas after they get an early lead and let Miami back into the game, but if they don't it's a blowout. Even after Miami takes a lead, Buffalo comes right back and goes up by 10 easily. Yeah Miami is without their best players, but even if they had them, it wouldn't have mattered, Buffalo was just better in every facet of the game and Miami was outmatched. Miami didn't make it close, Buffalo let them stay in it with poor play whenever they got complacent much like the Chargers did with Jacksonville.

Miami has a LONG way to go to get anywhere close to where Buffalo is and simply getting healthy isn't going to be enough. They need everything. Offensive line help. A TE that can both block and catch. Defensive backs that can cover. Linebackers that can get into gaps and stop running backs before they get started and can cover TE's and RB's out the backfield. Special teamers that can tackle. Punt and kickoff returners. Defensive ends that can get to a QB all by themselves.

Don't get me wrong, this team would compete in many other divisions, but in the AFCE they don't. Buffalo is in another league and Miami isn't that close. They did their best this year and I'm encouraged by what I saw this year, but they have a long way to go to catch Buffalo. Miami is going to have to take the money they spent on players that didn't help them this year Gesicki, Bridgewater, Chubb, Jones and find upgrades all over the field. Thompson was in over his head, but I believe he should be the backup to Tua next year. We can't afford to pay 3 QB's again next year, we don't have that luxury, just stick with Thompson as Tua's backup because he's cheap and if Tua misses more than a couple games next year, you have to replace Tua you can't stick with a QB that can't stay on the field. Upgrade the rest of the team and you won't need heroics from a QB to win a game. There's enough weapons on offense, upgrade the offensive line, the defense and the special teams and you'll have something special. Tua would be great with a good team around him, but if Tua can't stay on the field then find a replacement that can.

If Waddle makes those two catches in the first quarter? Who knows, we could be looking at a completely different result.

Buffalo did not let their foot off the gas and let us back into the game... our defense got in their face, caused the turnovers, and got us back in the game. This isn't a team that meekly quit like the one Flores coached last year that had its ass whipped by the Bills - Miami did play them tough and close for all three games this year, and that's a significant step up on the last head coach's tenure.

That said, you have to count on every team getting better next year, so we have to find a way to get a lot better:

If Hunt stays at RT, then we need two quality guards - otherwise we need to find a starting RT and LG because what we have is not up to scratch.

We have ignored the need for a stud LB who can cover for years and it's killing us - this year we have given away the second most touchdowns in the league for TEs (which should not be a huge surprise to any of us). If we find some money, do we go after someone like Tremaine Edmunds who is a free agent this year? Or do we look to the draft? (where, oh yeah, we don't have a first round draft pick)

I think Thompson can be a capable (and cheap) backup, and having him as the designated second string with more reps will only help - I've seen enough of Teddy to know he ain't any better (IMO he's much worse) and he can go along with his salary hit.

We're all assuming Byron Jones is gone (although I did read an amusing piece today suggesting we will be better next year with his return!) so do we actively hunt a replacement, or put our faith in that Kohou and/or (gasp) Noah will be a starter next season?

As for Gieseke, we franchised him this year and did not use him properly (as a receiver) and I assume he (and his big salary) will be somewhere else next season (where he will play extremely well). Do we even get a replacement at TE? I mentioned in another thread our offense under McDaniel is almost like the old Run-and-Shoot offenses of the early 1990s where the position is almost non-existent...

If that is the way we are headed, then fortifying the OL is even more important - as it is right now we are vulnerable to blitzes from the edges because our TEs and RBs won't/can't block. Then it's all on the starting five linemen to cover everything, and with the QB get the protection assignments and calls right to make it work.

[Pappy13]

Pappy has some good takes at times but if there are two ways of looking at things he is going to choose the negative moany of the times.

Some people say I'm negative, I like to think I'm just being a little more realistic than most. Most people are going to look at that game and say we lost by 3 points so we played well, sorry I can't just look at the score and make a determination about how we played. I didn't say the team sucked, actually I said I was encouraged by what I saw this year, but that game yesterday I was not impressed with Miami's performance and not just from the QB, from the team overall. We were overmatched all game. Maybe if Tua plays we do have a chance to win but only because Buffalo was off their game for much of the game. They nearly choked that game away to a team that was beat up. We had no business losing by 3 points in that game, it should have been a blowout, that's all I'm saying. That's not a positive for Miami, that's a negative for Buffalo. That doesn't say anything about next year other than we need to get better and we can't just roll it back it next year and think we will compete for the AFCE, that's all I'm saying.

I actually didn't watch the game live yesterday, I went to see a movie specifically so I wouldn't see the game live because I expected a blowout. After the movie I saw they lost by 3 and my initial reaction was the same as those that just see the score, Oh we played them close. Then I came home and watched the game and realized, no we didn't, they nearly choked the game away to a team without some of their best players. Bad game for Buffalo, not a good game for Miami. Miami made some big plays on defense, but other than a few shining spots, overall they were overmatched.

Here's some analysis by another person. I'd say this is spot on.

BY JAY BUSBEE

Bills 34, Dolphins 31. The Bills are good enough to dominate every team in the league. Every single one. The Bills also have enough bad stretches to get themselves bounced in any round of the playoffs. It nearly happened on Sunday, as Buffalo squandered a 17-point lead and had to hold on as Miami imploded. Josh Allen got sloppy, the two-touchdown underdog Dolphins pounced (can dolphins pounce? whatever), and just like that, Buffalo didn’t look quite so invulnerable. The Bills got their act together, but against a better team, they won’t get the chance. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are like a colt finding its footing. They’ll need Tua or another quarterback to run the show more efficiently than rookie Skylar Thompson did, but the pieces are there.

[Dolfanalyst]

Three of the five biggest plays in this game as measured by expected points added were the scoop and score (8.8 EPA), the deep pick by Howard (5 EPA), and the tipped pick by Holland (4.8 EPA).  Another of those five biggest plays was Thompson's pick (-5.1 EPA).

EPA doesn't translate precisely to points, but for the sake of argument that's roughly 19 points for Miami and 5 for Buffalo as a function of plays with a significant random component (i.e., picks and scoops and scores).  29-12 looks a whole lot different from 34-31.

And whaddaya know, 29-12 is virtually the expected scoring margin (18 points) when the yards per play differential between two teams is what it was in this game.

The take-home message is that with the randomness in this game "removed," it's a blowout win for Buffalo by NFL standards.

Again that says nothing about the 2022 season as a whole.  It just means there is little meaning to be derived from this game in terms of what to expect from this team in the future.  Losing by three points on the road to a Super Bowl favorite didn't suddenly vault this team into the stratosphere of Super Bowl contention, because the nature of the game was largely non-replicable and non-predictive of the team's future performance.

[Dolfanalyst]

Couple of good articles here:

https://www.footballperspective.com/are-nfl-playoff-outcomes-getting-more-random/

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/11/randomness-of-win-loss-records.html

[Spider-Dan]

Again that says nothing about the 2022 season as a whole.  It just means there is little meaning to be derived from this game in terms of what to expect from this team in the future.

Then why are you saying you are "done" with the head coach?

On the road with a 7th-round third-string rookie QB, the Dolphins' yards-per-play was dramatically worse than their second-in-league season average.  (You might even call it "fluky.") And yet, even with that uncharacteristic offensive performance, the team still had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

[dolphins4life]

Then why are you saying you are "done" with the head coach?

On the road with a 7th-round third-string rookie QB, the Dolphins' yards-per-play was dramatically worse than their second-in-league season average.  (You might even call it "fluky.") And yet, even with that uncharacteristic offensive performance, the team still had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

You know why?

1) This team had NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE PLAYOFFS.  The refs gifted them countless games and stole several from the Patriots.  It should have been New England in the playoffs.

2) This team brought in so much talent this year, and still couldn't improve on their record from last year

3) He can't manage the game.  That clock management would not have been okay at the pee wee level of football.

Alright?

He needs to go. He is DONE.  FINISHED!!!!!!

[Dolfanalyst]

Then why are you saying you are "done" with the head coach?

On the road with a 7th-round third-string rookie QB, the Dolphins' yards-per-play was dramatically worse than their second-in-league season average.  (You might even call it "fluky.") And yet, even with that uncharacteristic offensive performance, the team still had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to win the game.

Totally out of frustration on my part yesterday. I don’t think they should fire him, but I do think he should relinquish play-calling.

[Spider-Dan]

His play-calling resulted in a second-in-league yards per play; a statistic you believe to be important.  Do you think he can plug someone else in and get the same result?

I don't think the Dolphins would have had the same issues with getting plays out if Tua were under center.  There is only so much personnel planning you should do for "I'm starting a 7th-round rookie backup QB in a playoff game."  Give Skylar more time and he should be able to execute playcalling more efficiently.  Let's not overreact to what was still, by any account, a dramatic performance above expectations for the team.

[masterfins]

I would agree with Pappy that top to bottom Buffalo is a better football team, but I disagree in the amount of variance between the two teams.  I think coaching cost Miami a game or two this season, and injuries to just a couple players cost them two or three more games this year.  Hopefully McD learns from his mistakes when reviewing tapes in the off-season. I was disappointed in Josh Boyer after having coached under Bellichick and Flores, a decision needed to be made about him.  He'll probably get another year under the Jones was out and X was playing injured, and perhaps he should.

[Dave Gray]

This team had NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE PLAYOFFS.  The refs gifted them countless games and stole several from the Patriots.  It should have been New England in the playoffs.

I know I shouldn't take this troll-bait, but I can't help myself.

Where do you come off thinking the Patriots should have been the ones there.  They aren't as good as we are.  We played them twice.  ...whooped their ass the first time.  Lost by 2 with a 3rd string QB.  The Pats lost 5 of 7 to end the year.  They got waxed by the Bills twice.  You wanna send them in to Buffalo to get waxed again?  We beat the Bills once already, but in three contests, have a point differential of 4.

And we have a better record than the Patriots.

Your referee narrative is tired, boring, and untrue.  ...as are your New England and Brady narratives.  You need new material.  Move on.

[dolphins4life]

The Patriots had several games stolen from them by the refs making or missing bad calls at critical points.  In Week 1, they were driving for an opening score, when X mauled Devante Parker leading to an interception and shfiting the momentum.

Against the Packers, Kendrick Bourne had his jersey grabbed on a key play in overtime, stopping them from driving for a winning field goal.

Against the Vikings, four bad calls in that game.

Against the Raiders, Keelan Cole's catch in which he CLEARLY was out of bounds.

Even in the game they won against Miami, they had a fumble taken away from them on a bullshit call

Miami won a sheer gift game against Chicago.

It may be boring and tiresome.

But it is NOT untrue

[Fau Teixeira]

bad calls happen to every team, you're focused on a single team
it all evens out during the season

how about when Bridgewater was pulled from the game against the jets because a jets spotter "saw" him stumble around when nothing even close happened from every slow mo replay or every camera angle.

[dolphins4life]

bad calls happen to every team, you're focused on a single team
it all evens out during the season

how about when Bridgewater was pulled from the game against the jets because a jets spotter "saw" him stumble around when nothing even close happened from every slow mo replay or every camera angle.

That's not a bad call that directly affected the game.

No, it doesn't necessarily even out.