Every play you come up with has a risk of getting returned for 6. At least try to win, rather than trying not to lose. Go for the first down, find some slow-developing play like an end-around, or reverse, and try to get 10 yards.
Yeah, there's always risk, the key is to find the play that has the least risk. A pass play is safe because the QB is going to get rid of the ball before being hit. That's priority #1. Any play where the ball carrier could be hit carries the possibility of fumbling. A punt is risky because a bad snap can cause big problems and then there's the possibility of a long return or penalties which would allow the other team a crack at the endzone.
I totally agree that you should try to win a game rather than play not to lose it, but in this situation I wouldn't try to get the first down, I would simply try to run out the clock and failing that hope that my defense could hold for 1 play. I would only change that if I felt that they could immediately go for a FG on an incomplete pass. Then I would punt and hope for the best.
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