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Author Topic: Kick or take the ball in overtime?  (Read 1045 times)
Pappy13
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« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2026, 12:15:49 am »

There is one other thing to take into consideration and that is perhaps the teams have not had a chance yet to analyze the results of OT games from this year and have that play into their decision making yet. Perhaps the thinking was that the rule change would benefit the kicking team this year, but since there weren't any results to look at yet because this is the 1st year for that change in non playoff games, they just hadn't really looked at it yet. Perhaps after reviewing the results from this year's game the thinking will change again next year.
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That which does not kill me...gives me XP.
Spider-Dan
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« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2026, 01:04:42 am »

Yes and I'm basing my answer to that question on which team wins more often the team that recieves the ball first in OT or not. The data seems to back that up.
There is not enough data to draw an empirical conclusion yet.  You can draw all sorts of conclusions when your sample size is in the teens.

Part of the logic behind this is not simply "What has happened in previous OT games?", but within a larger world of NFL statistics.  For example, we should all be familiar with the recent tactic of going for 2 if you score a TD when down 14 in the 4th quarter.  This strategy is not based on historical success of teams that went for 2 when down by 8 points following a late TD, but instead based on success rates for extra points and 2-point conversions: since extra points aren't automatic, there is value in going for 2 early, so you know what you need if you manage to get another TD.  If you miss the 2PA then you know you'll need a 2PA on a second TD, and if you get the 2PA then you can try to win instead of tie (and if your XP misses, you still don't lose).

The point behind the strategy change is to increase your available knowledge of the situation so you can make a more informed decision.  Going for two on the first TD clarifies what you will need to do sooner, which allows you to plan better.  That's why you want to kick away in OT: it gives you more information so you can make better decisions with your playcalling.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2026, 01:18:42 am by Spider-Dan » Logged

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