Strenght of Schedule

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Not that it means much but the 2026 SOS based on the 2025 win percent, the Dolphins have second hardest.  And in case you are wondering how the Dolphins have a harder schedule than the Patriots.  The Patriots have three games against the 1st place team and the dolphins have three games against the third place team, it is because the Dolphins have two games against the 13-3 NEP and NEP have two games against the 7-10 Dolphins.   

Rank   Team   Opponent win pct. (2025)
1   Bears   .550
2   Dolphins   .542
3   Cardinals   .538
4   Packers   .538
5   Chiefs   .536
6   Patriots   .531
7   Raiders   .529
8   Bills   .528
9   Chargers   .522
10   Panthers   .521
11   Vikings   .519
12   Jets   .517
13   Rams   .516
14   Seahawks   .514
15   Broncos   .512
16   Commanders   .502
17   Giants   .498
18   49ers   .497
19   Steelers   .495
20   Cowboys   .493
21   Buccaneers   .491
22   Jaguars   .490
23   Eagles   .481
24   Ravens   .479
25   Titans   .476
26   Texans   .474
27   Lions   .467
28   Falcons   .465
29   Colts   .465
30   Bengals   .450
31   Saints   .434
32   Browns   .429

[Spider-Dan]

The Patriots have three games against the 1st place team and the dolphins have three games against the third place team, it is because the Dolphins have two games against the 13-3 NEP and NEP have two games against the 7-10 Dolphins.

Put another way: excluding common opponents, NE has 3 games against first-place teams and 2 games against a third-place team, while MIA has 3 games against third-place teams and 2 games against a first-place team.  So this doesn't really explain the discrepancy.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Put another way: excluding common opponents, NE has 3 games against first-place teams and 2 games against a third-place team, while MIA has 3 games against third-place teams and 2 games against a first-place team.  So this doesn't really explain the discrepancy.

Basically it means that in the AFCE, there was a wider gap between the record of the 1st place team (NE) and the 3rd place team (MIA) that the gap between the 1st place team and the 3rd place team in the other three relevant divisions.   

[Spider-Dan]

So you're saying that despite finishing in first place, NE is still somehow managing to land a disproportionately easy schedule for a team in their position.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

So you're saying that despite finishing in first place, NE is still somehow managing to land a disproportionately easy schedule for a team in their position.

New England is about where they are supposed to be, in the top 8.  Dolphins have a harder schedule than you might expect owing to the records of NEP and Bills. 

But it certainly has been the case NEP have had many seasons with a low SOS owing to the suckatude of the rest of the ACFE.

[Fau Teixeira]

Previous year Strength of Schedule is the worst predictive metric anyways. You always have teams come out of nowhere or just shit the bed yearly in the NFL. This year it could be that Tennessee is going to go 15-2 and new england goes 6-11 and what will the previous year's SoS matter ?

[masterfins]

Previous year Strength of Schedule is the worst predictive metric anyways. You always have teams come out of nowhere or just shit the bed yearly in the NFL. This year it could be that Tennessee is going to go 15-2 and new england goes 6-11 and what will the previous year's SoS matter ?

To a certain degree yes.  But some divisions are consistently strong and some are consistently weak; for instance last year Miami played a consistently weak division in the NFC South.  This year they will play the NFC North and the AFC West which both have strong teams.

Miami will have one of the worst records, if not the worst record, in the NFL in 2026; They'll be lucky to get 4 wins given all their personnel changes.