10 win possibility thread revisited

[MaineDolFan]

Wow, I'm speechless.   While anything is possible, to suggest 10 wins seems incredibly optimistic after a 1 win season and based on 2 preseason wins.

People seem to only look at one thing from last year:  The record.  This team (in 2008) has more talent than last season and is better coached.  Last season's team lost 8 games by 3 points or less.  As bad as Miami was last year they could have been 8-8 or even 9-7.

And yet 10 wins is "such a stretch?"  People need to look beyond last year's win / loss.  Try looking at how the team lost, when, the players that were on that roster and the staff coaching them.

This team wins at least 8 games this season and could easily go 10-6 with a couple bounces that we didn't get last year we do this.

[bsfins]

Maine do you really want to get into the semantics of Why? the other teams in the league got better,and tried to fill thier weakness' ..That was last year,you have this years injuries,new coaches,new philosophies...

Most teams that turn over the majority of their roster,don't have good seasons...3 games in the preseason,doesn't give a reason to think that trend is going to change....

[Sunstroke]

Last season's team lost 8 games by 3 points or less.  As bad as Miami was last year they could have been 8-8 or even 9-7.

The optimists love to bring up the number of close games to support this, but most ignore the flip side of the coin. Based on the final "real" result last season, there seems to be three possibilities:

1) Miami's 1-15 record was an accurate barometer of the team's talent and preparation levels.
2) A few more breaks go Miami's way and they go 3-13, 4-12...max.
3) A few breaks that Miami DID get (paging Mr Camarillo, and a few others),  go the other way, and Miami goes 0-16 with only a couple of games not being decisive losses.

Personally, I gravitate toward the low end of #2...Miami was probably a 3-12 caliber team last season, but caught a few crappy breaks/were mismanaged in close games and came in at 1-15 instead.

Ten wins in 2008?  IMO, it's a sweet dream, but an unrealistic projection.

[JVides]

If the title had read "6 win possibility thread revisited" I'd have said, "sure, maybe 7 or 8 is possible", but 10?  I din't think so, even with our "favorable" schedule.

[Brian Fein]

Last year's team was decimated by injury.  We were starting third stringers in mid-season and hanging in games against quality teams.

Now the team is healthy, no big injuries (knock on wood) and we shed a lot of dead weight.  The team is younger, fresher, and out to prove something.  I think had last year's team been healthy (we started losing starters to IR as early as week 1), we would have won 6-8 games MINIMUM last season.  I don't think its a stretch to say we've improved to 8-10 wins.

Execution and injury will be the keys.  I really think this team is gonna surprise some people.

[fyo]

Now the team is healthy, no big injuries (knock on wood)

You could easily argue that we lost our 3 best players. Maybe not to injury, but we lost them none-the-less.

[Brian Fein]

they're not our three best players anymore.

[Jim Gray]

People seem to only look at one thing from last year:  The record.  This team (in 2008) has more talent than last season and is better coached. 

I didn't just look at last years record to question 10 wins.  I was pointing out that people were predicting 10 wins based on 2 preseason games.  I agree the team is better coached and has better talent; but is it enough for a 10X improvement?  5 wins would still be a 5X improvement which I would consider a huge turn around.

Ignoring our 1 - 15 record from 2007, here are some reasons I think 10 is overly optimistic, and an unfair expectation for this team.

So much change.   Most of my apprehension to jump on the 10 win bandwagon is based on the complete overhaul this team has gone through.  We have new coaches and new schemes.  Over 50% of the roster has changed, including our QB.  Many of the new players have promise, but we have a lot of inexperience.  I think the penalties are an indication of this.

Lack of depth.  There is a serious lack of depth at all positions except for RB.  You know there are going to be injuries, so I expect this is going to have an impact later in the season.

Execution.  The 2 wins are nice, but the Miami offense has scored a total of 3 TDs in 3 games.  The 3rd down conversion rate is a problem.   The penalties are killing drives and big plays.   

QB position - I'm impressed with what Chad P has been able to do here; but his performance in games that count over the past few years has been average at best.  Last year Pennington played in 9 games.  The Jets lost 8 of them.  The only win?  Miami.  In 8 years, Pennington has played 16 games only once.  If Pennington goes down, what happens?  I like Henne, but he's not ready to lead an NFL team week in and week out. 

Inexperience on the offensive line - these guys have looked pretty good, but I'm not sure they have been tested.  3 of the 5 are new to the Dolphins, including 2 rookies.  They haven't played together and I expect them to have some problems.

WR's and TE - some bright spots, but a lot of inexperience.   I don't think other teams are going to be scared of these guys.  We all hope Ginn will step up this year, but I need to see it to believe it.  The rest of the guys?  I'm not impressed. 

RBs - this should be our strength, and if R and R stay healthy, we will win some games.  I'm concerned that Brown seems perpetually injured, and as much as I love Ricky.......he's 1 toke away from "another" lifetime ban.  Still, I'm happy with what we have. 

I have more, but I hope this is enough to clarify why I'm not buying into the hype right now.  If I'm wrong, and I hope I am, I'll be thrilled.

[Dave Gray]

I still think that 6 wins is a realistic goal.  ...and who knows...we could get really hot or cold and swing a couple of games in either direction.  8-8 would be an incredible season.  But, 4 wins is very possible as well.

I don't see 10 wins as even a remote possibility.

But, I remember Frimp picking some insane record prediction one year, and it came true.  I'll try to gravedig.

[Defense54]

We could have won 6-8 games last year easily if not for injuries and better coaching/time management.  We got hit with the perfect storm from every direction and were lucky to actually win the 1 game that we did. That said .500 (8-8) is not out of the question with this line up.

[Frimp]

I still think that 6 wins is a realistic goal.  ...and who knows...we could get really hot or cold and swing a couple of games in either direction.  8-8 would be an incredible season.  But, 4 wins is very possible as well.

I don't see 10 wins as even a remote possibility.

But, I remember Frimp picking some insane record prediction one year, and it came true.  I'll try to gravedig.

You guys killed me, thinking I was serious about it. I did it to counteract all the negative stuff. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Trivia question:


(no looking it up in a book or internet site)

1)  What team when 1-15 in 1996 and 9-7 the following year? 

2) who was their head coach?

[YoFuggedaboutit]

Trivia question:


(no looking it up in a book or internet site)

1)  What team when 1-15 in 1996 and 9-7 the following year? 

2) who was their head coach?

1.  The New York Jets

2.  Rich Kotite was the head coach when they went 1-15.  The following year, Bill Parcells was the head coach.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^ correct

[Tenshot13]

7       TDMMC Forums / Anti-Fins Chat / Re: How many games will we win this season?       on: August 22, 2008, 12:29:23 AM

10-6

call me crazy...we win the division...no more stallworth on the pats which puts a #2 cb on welker and makes him average...Moss is ridiculously good but I don't see him doing it again this year...plus a defense that is old as dirt...and Lawerence Jabrony is overrated....they're gonna suck this year...jets have Favre, the INT and fumble machine, but what other offensive weapons?  Thomas Jones is not that good and while their front seven maybe good, their secondary is suspect...and the Bills are a joke...even as horrible as we were last year we still should have beaten them last home game...Ya I know I'm crazy and don't know what I'm talking about...this is how optimistic I am going into every season and it stays that way until we are mathematically out of the playoff picture...Phins win the superbowl against Tampa in Tampa....hows that for throwing shit and seeing if it sticks?

I posted this earlier this week...plus lets look at our schedule...

jets-winable...cardinals...winable....NE...I say winable but I could see an argument for not...Chargers...probably not....Texans...winable...Rav ens...winable...Bills...winab le....Denver...winable...Seat tle...Probably not....Oak...winable....Rams. ..winable....49ers...winable. ..Chiefs...better win that one...so in my humble opinion ten wins is not unreasonable.