Here's Dave's formula.
Steps of .25 make it a bit tough, but on the other hand, this is all hand-waving mumbo jumbo anyway.
My take (and, no, I don't see a single game where I would call us favorites):
.5 N.Y. Jets
.5 at Arizona Cardinals
0 at New England Patriots
0 Bye
0 San Diego Chargers
.25 at Houston Texans
.5 Baltimore Ravens
.5 Buffalo Bills
.25 at Denver Broncos
.25 Seattle Seahawks
.5 Oakland Raiders
0 New England Patriots
.25 at St. Louis Rams
.25 at Buffalo Bills (Toronto)
.5 San Francisco 49ers
.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
.25 at New York Jets
5 Wins.
As I've said before, my official guess is at the optimistic end of what I think is likely... 6 wins.