Who WILL win the election?

[Dave Gray]

Who do you think will win, and why?

(This is not a who SHOULD win poll, by the way.)

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I think that Obama will win, and probably by a good margin.  The economy will not improve very much, if at all, by election time, and it really hurts McCain, as polling shows that people are more wont to blame Republicans for the problem.

But the biggest deal is the electoral math.  McCain is strapped for funds in comparison to Obama, and he has to fend off so many more states than Obama does.  He just doesn't have the resources to pour into marketing in order to make gains in that many markets at once, in such a short time.

And simeon mentioned in the other thread that "not one vote has been cast yet".  But that's not true.  Early voting began in Ohio, at a time when Obama had his largest lead to date.  It's estimated that about a third of all ballots will be cast by early voting.

McCain needed a game changer.  His last chance to get one (from his own doing) was to go the opposite way from Obama on the bailout plan.  That way, he could at least separate himself.  But, in siding with the plan, he'll likely lose more conservatives, who will go 3rd party or not vote at all.

I think the only way that McCain can win this thing is if something major happens to bring national security to the forefront -- terrorist attack, capturing Bin Laden, etc.

[pintofguinness14]

I think Obama will win barring some kind of major national security event (like Obama turning out to be Usama). The negative economic news will continue through the election and, while progress has been made in Iraq, Americans vote their pocket books.

Does anyone remember watching the "electoral map" on the news during the 1984 election? It was almost entirely blue as Reagan won nearly every state. I think we'll see something similar this time around. The election, in terms of electoral college votes, will not be close.

Modified to correct my poor grammar :-)

[YoFuggedaboutit]

I think Obama will win barring some kind of major national security event (like Obama turning out to be Usama).

You're probably right on that count..... but looks like Sarah Palin is trying to make Obama out to be just that. 


http://news.aol.com/elections/article/palin-says-obama-pals-with-terrorists/200425?icid=200100397x1210562408x1200608432

[simeon]

I believe O'Bama will win by default, McCain has had his shots and came up empty in the past.

[Sunstroke]

Obama will win because I've already congratulated him...and I couldn't possibly be wrong on this.

[jtex316]

Ouch - it's a bludgeoning right now based on this non-scientific message board poll.

[jtex316]

I believe O'Bama will win by default, McCain has had his shots and came up empty in the past.

O'Bama? A black-irish president?

[pintofguinness14]

O'Bama? A black-irish president?

Give him a break. Palin said "O'Biden" during the debate last week :-)

[Buddhagirl]

O'Bama? A black-irish president?

Snerk...  :-)

[Defense54]

I'm not 100% sure who I'm voting for yet, but I'm probably leaning towards McCain. I think if the Election were held today Obama would win. The reason for it is basically George Bush and the horrible job he has done . McCain is Not George Bush but he won't be able to shake his Ghost. The recent Economy Crumble has cemented it. Obama talks change but has not really given any plans on how to do just that.....except that its needed. I think McCain is enough of his own man to buck the system when needed and there is something to be said about an older person and their wisdom. No one knows war better then he does. He will do whats needed.

[Dave Gray]

Obama talks change but has not really given any plans on how to do just that.....except that its needed.

Just.  Not.  True.

Obama has clearly outlined many concrete plans that would change from the current administration, including many, many specifics.  You may not agree with them, but they certainly exist.

[MaineDolFan]

Dave, don't you know already to not let the facts get in the way of a good stance?  Come on! 

[Defense54]

Just.  Not.  True.

Obama has clearly outlined many concrete plans that would change from the current administration, including many, many specifics.  You may not agree with them, but they certainly exist.

To be 100% truthful if I sound unsure and not really leaning one way or another its becuase I'm not.
I believe the plans that Obama states take a Blanket approach. Nothing is specific. Is it different? Sure.  I believe McCain will be different as well.  The whole VP thing has gotten really out of hand. We are not voting for a VP.  However McCains first major decision has not been a good one.  I probably shouldn't have said I'm voting for McCain becuase I'm not really sure yet.  So lay off me and let me sit here in my pool uncertainess!

Come the end of the month I'll be more assertive. 

[jtex316]

To be 100% truthful if I sound unsure and not really leaning one way or another its becuase I'm not.
I believe the plans that Obama states take a Blanket approach. Nothing is specific. Is it different? Sure.  I believe McCain will be different as well.  The whole VP thing has gotten really out of hand. We are not voting for a VP.  However McCains first major decision has not been a good one.  I probably shouldn't have said I'm voting for McCain becuase I'm not really sure yet.  So lay off me and let me sit here in my pool uncertainess!

Come the end of the month I'll be more assertive. 

Nice Retreat.

[Dave Gray]

I believe the plans that Obama states take a Blanket approach. Nothing is specific. Is it different? Sure. 

Sorry, man.  I don't mean to harp on you, but this just isn't true either.  Obama has a specific plan on lots of things, with many details.  I totally respect that you're undecided, and I'm not even trying to sway you.  Do what you think is right.  But there is a specific plan for much of what Obama wants to accomplish.  He does often speak in his speeches about general concepts, like "change".  But if you seek information on his website, he has clearly outlined plans for things like a new, more progressive tax structure, plans for volunteer community work to earn college money, etc.