What now in politics?

[Dave Gray]

Here's how I see things going in the near future:

Democrats in Congress have used up all of their political capital.  Passing the health care bill was a necessity for the party.  If they failed to get it through, not only would the same people who are pissed now be pissed that they tried, but the democratic base would be pissed that they were unable to get their shit together to do it.

I think that Congress will accomplish nothing of note through the elections in 2010.  Now is campaign time, and Obama owes the blue-dog Dems big-time.  He will go campaigning in the purple states for these guys really hard, trying to keep them in office, explaining this health care bill, and taming some of the anger that came with it.

And while Obama may stop the bleeding some, the Dems are going to lose a lot of seats in both the House and Senate.

The GOP will maintain their current message that this is Socialism and a grave mistake.  It will be a one note campaign for them -- that they are needed to bring balance back to Congress, to prevent the runaway train from doing any more damage.  It will be largely successful.  They most likely will preach retraction of the health care bill, but realistically, they won't be able to do it, once in office.  Get prepared to see lots of lawsuits and large grandstanding claims that go nowhere, but play well, politically.

Next on the plate for the President, politically will be something that has lots of bi-partisan support.  ...perhaps immigration reform or green energy.  There's no way that he's going to get Pelosi and the Dems in Congress to put their necks out again on a major vote anytime soon, so it'll have to be something that isn't too contested.

The health care thing speaks well of him.  The anger will die down (I question how much of that anger is from legit people who understand the law) and it will be better for Obama to be seen as a "doer".  Also, the economy seems to be improving pretty steadily, and he can rest on that for a bit.

[MaineDolFan]

The health care thing speaks well of him.  The anger will die down (I question how much of that anger is from legit people who understand the law) and it will be better for Obama to be seen as a "doer".  Also, the economy seems to be improving pretty steadily, and he can rest on that for a bit.

I used this in another thread, it is appropriate here:

This country is filled with people that feel an appropriate use of "911" is their order being screwed up at McDonald's.

I work in health care in two ways:
1 - I work for a major insurance company
2 - I work on the front lines as a per diem nurse in ICU in Maine's largest city.

I see issues from both sides.  I've researched this bill and still don't know real meat of it.  I would guess that the majority of Americans do not know either, especially in a nation that does not understand the difference between a right and a courtesy.

Therefore, it is easy to assume that the loudest "outrage" from the peanut gallery is coming from the GOP / far right.  This is the sector of our population that will bemoan anything that left does just because.  That isn't always a bad thing, the nature of being "on the right" means, by it's defintion, that they will disagree with the stance of those on the left.

That said, in the nature of that discourse, decent and fundamental portions of this bill that are correct, or "good" are going to be drowned in the rhetoric of the "Louisiana purchase" type stance / posture. 

As Americans, we're in a very unique position.  Never before in any generation that has come before us have any group of people been more worried about the bottom line - and by "bottom line" I mean themselves - versus the general good and health of a nation.  The "powers that be" do things that, generally, will better their position.  The general masses accept those changes if those changes better their personal situation, even if it is to the detriment to millions of others.  The flip side of that stands to be true, they will bemoan something that would benefit many while causing something of minor riff to themselves.

In short, we have become a nation of fat, lazy, selfish and entitled people.  We are all stuck in a quagmire of being right for the sake of it and making a stance...just for the sake of it. 

I would recommend everyone to read about the fall of Rome.  I find the connections between the deterioration of that empire and what is happening with the United States fascinating.  After 1,000 years in power Rome never thought they would on the door stop to "the end", either. 

Are we?

I think we could be closer than a lot of people think.

Fascinating times.  Historic.  I wonder what tales will be told about the United States in 1,000 years?

[Defense54]

 Rome didn't have an "A" Bomb and control of most of the worlds Satellites and Technology. I truly think there are people that would make everyone go down instead of giving control to say.......China or another country.

[Sunstroke]

After 1,000 years in power Rome never thought they would on the door stop to "the end", either. 

Are we?

I think we could be closer than a lot of people think.

No, I don't think we are "on the doorstep to the end" at all...

I also think that if a person really wants to, they can find enough obscure ties between modern-day America and any civilization from mankind's history to make "whatever" point that person wants to make.

[StL FinFan]

Dave, explain to me how the economy is improving because I am not seeing it.

[bsfins]

^^ change tends to work from the edges to the middle....We're in the middle.... Unemployment numbers went up here..

[Spider-Dan]

Next on the plate for the President, politically will be something that has lots of bi-partisan support.  ...perhaps immigration reform or green energy.

Do you really believe that immigration reform and green energy are bipartisan issues?   You must be thinking about some other marginally-reasonable Republican party.  I strongly suggest that you google the following two terms:

"shamnesty"
"drill baby drill"

The only immigration reform that Republicans will agree to is forced mass deportation (even McCain has been trashed repeatedly by the right for suggesting otherwise with his immigration reform bills).

Green energy is a complete non-starter when you are dealing with a group of people who not only refuse to believe that climate change is an issue, but see any attempt to reduce our reliance on oil (foreign or domestic) as a smokescreen to funnel pork money to insider green-energy companies.

The only issue that could see any sort of bipartisan support from the GOP is financial reform (which I believe is actually up next), and I strongly suspect that as soon as Obama starts to focus on it, the GOP will immediately pivot to obstructing whatever course of action he recommends on the topic.

This is a party that, for the last 15 months, has singularly focused on opposing whatever it is that Obama is in favor of.  Honest policy differences do not result in 4 major bills (6 separate votes) with a total of 4 GOP "yes" votes out of 793 GOP votes cast.  They're trying to execute a political strategy that simply consists of opposing Obama on virtually every issue no matter what.

[Phishfan]

The only immigration reform I would like to see is the enforcement of our illegal immigration laws.

[bsmooth]

I am extremely disapointed with the level of rancor and disrepect that has come about in the chamber. It looks like the British Parliament light.

[Dave Gray]

Do you really believe that immigration reform and green energy are bipartisan issues?   You must be thinking about some other marginally-reasonable Republican party.

There is some moderate GOP support for certain green tech and environment stuff, as well as immigration reform.  I don't expect the GOP as a whole to support the Dems, but I think they'll be able to get a few stragglers and call it a bi-partisan bill.

Also, every conservative I know was against this health bill (they are fundamentally against gov't involvement), but of the conservatives I know, they are split on how to deal with immigration and green tech.  And as for me, I don't see a clear black/white solution to immigration, so I imagine that the other side isn't so clear on it either.

[Defense54]

Dave, explain to me how the economy is improving because I am not seeing it.

Are you kidding? My Investments have doubled! A few have tripled. Realestate is still slow but up from the past year. Unemployment is still an issue , but no one said we are back. Just that its improved.

[Dave Gray]

The DOW is up a lot, and I'm seeing more movement in my business, personally. 

I hear the same things on the news, as well.

For me personally, we're still broke, but I am getting the opportunity to put together proposal and am making some sales.  My clients are noticing the same thing.  As Defense said, we're not back, but we're improving -- at least in my industry.

[Spider-Dan]

There is some moderate GOP support for certain green tech and environment stuff, as well as immigration reform.  I don't expect the GOP as a whole to support the Dems, but I think they'll be able to get a few stragglers and call it a bi-partisan bill.

Any Republican who votes with the Dems on any major legislation (green energy and immigration certainly qualify) will immediately face a primary opponent from his right.  These are the consequences when congressmen spend a good chunk of their media time saying that their opponents are the greatest threat to this Republic since Hitler; you can't then turn around and agree with Hitler on some stuff.

Again, I can't believe that you would think that the GOP would move anywhere at all on immigration; they couldn't even come to terms with McCain on the subject, so why in the world would they compromise with Obama?

McCain is already facing a primary challenge from his right.  Hell, Ron Paul (who's ideology practically founded the tea parties) is being primaried from his right.  This is not an environment where compromise will be tolerated.

[Defense54]

Is it Too early to discuss a few Republicans that will challenge Obama in 2 yrs?

[Dave Gray]

Is it Too early to discuss a few Republicans that will challenge Obama in 2 yrs?

No.  I think that the GOP is fairly easy to predict in terms of candidates.  They aren't known for picking people out of nowhere - generally they pick their candidate as the 2nd in line from the previous election.

That said, Romney seems to be in pretty good shape.  I don't take Sarah Palin seriously.  She could win in some areas, but nationally, she's unelectable.  I think that Huckabee is likeable and a good speaker, but that he's not "business" enough to get national cred.  Jindal is too much of a wussy.  So, I put all of my money on Romney.