The lead in what? Picking like a pansy doesn't win anything. Unless you are the guy with 20. I don't understand the people who pick like pansies. It never comes down to a tie where winning percentage matters for shit if you have the balls to pick.
Which was pretty much my point, if you bothered to read my post. In fact, I said pretty much exactly that, bemoaning that not picking wouldn't get me a long streak.
As for an overall "win" strategy, I'm not completely convinced making tons of picks is the right way to go. A lot of picks are (if you look at Vegas odds) truly 50/50, but there are quite a few with way better odds.
That wasn't the point I was trying to make, however. My problem was simply that I didn't know jack about the picks available and didn't have a good feel for any of them. Sure, I could pick blindly -- and I do that sometimes -- but this time I decided not to.
EDITED to add: But as my "obscure soccer leagues" reference alluded to, I'm doing pretty much that (picking blindly) today. For some reason, I've suddenly become a big Helsinki supporter
