QB - Who should start?

[Dave Gray]

Even if Pennington is slightly better than Henne, to what gain is there in starting him?

I think this rhetorical question sums up my feelings pretty well.  I think it's safe to assume that Pennington isn't world's better than Henne.  So, even if Pennington gives you a chance to win a single game more, I still think it's best to start Henne, for the future's sake.

Plus, Henne's upside, including his ability to throw the ball long (perhaps not complete passes, but at least get it there) makes it all the more enticing for your new talent, namely Brandon Marshall.

[Phishfan]

I'm really curious who else selected Pennington. Chad did wonders for our team, but his day has passed.

[Dave Gray]

I'm firmly in the Henne camp, but I could see the argument made for Pennington for one reason, and one reason only.

If you thought:
That Pennington gave you the chance to win more games right now.  (Which is think is a reasonable thought.)
AND
If you thought that putting the team on the field with the chance to do best RIGHT NOW is the most important thing.  (Which is also pretty reasonable.)

I probably think that we can be a better team with Pennington at QB (at least I'm open to the argument, anyway.)  My big concern with that is that I think that Pennington can't take you all the way this year, or more importantly, ever.  Henne gives you the best shot.

[Tepop84]

Not to mention that in 2008 they had one of the easiest schedules in the league whereas in 2009 they faced one of the toughest if not the toughest.

The games Henne played in 2009 were not even close to the toughest.   Buffalo x2 (5-9), Jets x2 (9-5), New England x2 (9-5), Carolina (8-7), Jax (7-8), Pittsburgh (8-7), Houston (8-7), Tenn (7-8), NO (12-3), TB (3-12).  Unless you want to include the games Pennington played to toughen up the schedule.

[Thundergod]

Even if Pennington is slightly better than Henne, to what gain is there in starting him?

The guy has had three major injuries.  You can only duct tape him back together so many times.  Safe to assume that if you tried to use him as a starter, the backup is going to be playing sooner or later. 

Henne OTOH, should improve with experince, and if not at least play him long enough to conclude a 1st or 2nd round pick will be used for a QB in the 2011 draft.  Cause if Henne isn't your franchise QB, you need to draft one, cause Pennington, White or Thigpen ain't either. 

Exactly.

Argument ends here.

[Brian Fein]

The games Henne played in 2009 were not even close to the toughest.   Buffalo x2 (5-9), Jets x2 (7-7), New England x2 (9-5), Carolina (8-7), Jax (7-8), Pittsburgh (8-7), Houston (8-7), Tenn (7-8), NO (12-3), TB (3-12).  Unless you want to include the games Pennington played to toughen up the schedule.

Your blindness is baffling.

You know the Jets went to the AFC championship game, and had the NFL's best defense last season.  Right?
You know New Orleans WON THE SUPER BOWL, right?
You know the Patriots are, well, the Patriots, right?

Of the three measly games Pennington played, the Dolphins lost THEM ALL.

[fyo]

The games Henne played in 2009 were not even close to the toughest.   Buffalo x2 (5-9), Jets x2 (7-7), New England x2 (9-5), Carolina (8-7), Jax (7-8), Pittsburgh (8-7), Houston (8-7), Tenn (7-8), NO (12-3), TB (3-12).  Unless you want to include the games Pennington played to toughen up the schedule.

If you insist on correcting for opponent quality, why not use an unbiased, objective metric? Footballoutsiders.com has one, but I don't think you're going to like the results:

Henne: 7.9% DVOA (per play metric)
Pennington: -4.8% DVOA

Without adjusting for defense (plain VOA), the two were much closer, but Henne still edged out Pennington.

[Pappy13]

The games Henne played in 2009 were not even close to the toughest.   Buffalo x2 (5-9), Jets x2 (7-7), New England x2 (9-5), Carolina (8-7), Jax (7-8), Pittsburgh (8-7), Houston (8-7), Tenn (7-8), NO (12-3), TB (3-12).  Unless you want to include the games Pennington played to toughen up the schedule.

Henne threw more passes in the San Diego game than Pennington did and I wouldn't exactly call Atlanta a powerhouse last year.  That leaves Indy as the one tough opponent that Penny faced that Henne didn't.  And where are you getting those records from?  I'm pretty sure that all the teams played at least 16 games.  What's your reasoning for only including some of the games in their record?  I guess by your logic Indy was (2-0)?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

What's your reasoning for only including some of the games in their record?  I guess by your logic Indy was (2-0)?

It is pretty obvious he is not including the Dolphin games in the record.  Not an unusual way of expressing records when comparing strength of schedule not to include the team being analyzed. You will note the division rivals total to 14 and non division rivals total to 15. 

Still a flawed argument for playing band-aid man. 

[Pappy13]

It is pretty obvious he is not including the Dolphin games in the record.  Not an unusual way of expressing records when comparing strength of schedule not to include the team being analyzed. You will note the division rivals total to 14 and non division rivals total to 15. 

Ah. Gotcha.  Brainfart there.

Edit:  Hold the phone.  The Jets wouldn't be 7-7 then would they?  Shouldn't that be 9-5?

[bsfins]

I'm firmly in the Henne camp, but I could see the argument made for Pennington for one reason, and one reason only.

If you thought:
That Pennington gave you the chance to win more games right now.  (Which is think is a reasonable thought.)
AND
If you thought that putting the team on the field with the chance to do best RIGHT NOW is the most important thing.  (Which is also pretty reasonable.)

I probably think that we can be a better team with Pennington at QB (at least I'm open to the argument, anyway.)  My big concern with that is that I think that Pennington can't take you all the way this year, or more importantly, ever.  Henne gives you the best shot.

Excuse me for being captain obvious here...

Pennington - Is only as good as his running game a defense are,you need the offense to be set up for Pennington.You're playing not to lose, with a lot of short timing routes,where Pennington is throwing to a spot, and the receiver runs to the spot....Those take lots of practice time with the receivers,and depends on the team running the ball well, and playaction,stringing lots of plays together....Playing not to lose the game,having to play a perfect game...It's the mantra of losing teams,trying to stay away from 4-12 seasons.Run the ball ,play good defense, QB plays just good enough to keep you in the game...Pennington most likely isn't going to cost you the game, but isn't going to win you one either...

Sorry So I don't see it as trying to win now, as much as I do not trying to go 4-12....

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Pennington most likely isn't going to cost you the game, but isn't going to win you one either...

THAT is exactly the quaility you look for in a back up QB.  Not what you want in the starter. 

[Tepop84]

If you insist on correcting for opponent quality, why not use an unbiased, objective metric? Footballoutsiders.com has one, but I don't think you're going to like the results:

Henne: 7.9% DVOA (per play metric)
Pennington: -4.8% DVOA

Without adjusting for defense (plain VOA), the two were much closer, but Henne still edged out Pennington.

So for 2.5 games Pennington was a -4.8% DVOA.  In 2008, in his 16 game year (slightly larger sample size), he was +25.7% DVOA.  Which is better 7.9 or 25.7?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Tepop-

Three people have quoted my responses and offered agreement.  You have not addressed any of what I have raised....

1) Do you honestly believe the Pennington has a chance at starting all 16 games this season?  If not, who do you think ought take over the reigns when he lands on IR?

2) Who do you see as the long term solution at QB? 

a) Offer Dr. Rudy Wells six million dollars to keep Pennington playing?
b) Have Henne learn the position by watching Pennington?
c) Believe that magic fairy dust will convert White into a QB that can be used for more than the wildcat?
d) Believe Thigpen is much much better than his performance in KC would suggest?
e) Plan to draft a QB in 2011 draft? 
f) out bid Bill Polin and convince Peyton Manning to play for the Dolphins?
g) something else? 

3) If Pennington is not going to be a long term solution, would it make sense to have a player that will be (Henne,Thigpen, or White) gain experience? 

[fyo]

So for 2.5 games Pennington was a -4.8% DVOA.  In 2008, in his 16 game year (slightly larger sample size), he was +25.7% DVOA.  Which is better 7.9 or 25.7?

Wasn't the same team, though, as you well know. You keep insisting on comparing apples to oranges and repeating 2008 to 2009 comparisons is not going to make it any more palatable. The team just didn't play well in 2009. It didn't before Pennington got hurt, it didn't after. Simple as that.