FO not that good.

[JVides]

Phish - no, I don't have a problem with 32 front offices, as undrafted free agents making it as stars is the exception to the rule, not the norm.  In any large sample (like the 2,000+ college players eligible to be drafted each year), there will be statistical anomalies.  The highly successful UDFA is that anomaly.  He falls well outside of the bell curve.  No team can expect to know every college player, so someone will slip that should not.  however, it is statistically improbable that all 32 teams will simultaneously whiff on the same guy.  It happens occasionally, and when it does, you get Miles Austin and Tony Romo.

Hoodie:
QB - Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, etc...Do you see how I can name endlessly more successful 1st (or in Favre's case, 2nd) round QBs than undrafted ones?  That's because the expectation is that these guys will be good (or great), while undrafted guys tend not to make it because they're not as talented.  Yes, you can man one full team with successfuld undrafted guys.  Probably fill a 53 man roster.  But I could assemble 20 such teams comprised of first through third rounders, because, invariably, they have performed better (that's why they were drafted so high!).  That's all I'm saying.  A team should be lauded for developing UDFAs into workable pieces.  However, a failed high draft pick and a successful UDFA do not make it "even".  It means you have failed in assessing the high pick.  If you miss on 1 of 3 high picks, fine.  The law of averages applies.  If you miss on 2 of 3, not fine.  You stink at your job is what applies.

[Pappy13]

QB - Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, etc...Do you see how I can name endlessly more successful 1st (or in Favre's case, 2nd) round QBs than undrafted ones?

I can't wait to see Hoodies list of 1st and 2nd round bust QB's.  I'd say the over/under is 15?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I can't wait to see Hoodies list of 1st and 2nd round bust QB's.  I'd say the over/under is 15?

Needless to say, it is unnecessary. 

The draft is a crap shoot.  A draft pick is nothing more than a formal invitation to try out for the team.  You hope you bring in the right guys.  But the real stupidity occurs when you bring in the wrong guy and keep him to avoid looking bad cause he was a high draft pick.   

[Phishfan]

Phish - no, I don't have a problem with 32 front offices, as undrafted free agents making it as stars is the exception to the rule, not the norm.  In any large sample (like the 2,000+ college players eligible to be drafted each year), there will be statistical anomalies.  The highly successful UDFA is that anomaly.  He falls well outside of the bell curve.  No team can expect to know every college player, so someone will slip that should not.  however, it is statistically improbable that all 32 teams will simultaneously whiff on the same guy.  It happens occasionally, and when it does, you get Miles Austin and Tony Romo.

I'm afraid you do have a problem with all the front offices based on you statement that in order to get the draft right no UDFAs should make your team (paraphrase). But yet, all 32 teams have UDFAs on the roster. Therefore, by your statement, none of the front offices get their drafts right.

[JVides]

Phish, I invite you to re-read the post, as I said that UFDAs generally make up the bottom of your roster if they make the team.  They play special teams.  They back up the backup.  Maybe they're the utility lineman who plays three positions.  To be clear:  I have a problem with any front office that continuously whiffs on high-round picks, regardless of how well they do with lower-round and street free agent types.  Are you honestly going to tell me that your position is "Cam Cameron really whiffed on Ted Ginn Jr, Samson Satele, and Reagan Mauia, but getting Greg Camarillo makes up for it!  No harm, no foul!"  I don't believe it for a second!

Don't pretend to know what I have and don't have a problem with, especially as I've taken great pains to state, repeatedly, that success with low rounders isn't a problem, but rather that missing on high-round guys is.   I've stated, repeatedly, that there is no possible way to scout every college player, and that sometimes a guy will slip through the cracks.  That pretty much infers that I have a tolerance for UDFAs making a team, becoming starters, and even starring.  My problem is in systematically missing on high draft picks, regardless of how well teams do with UDFAs.

Pappy/Hoodie:
As for a list of 1st round QB busts, yes, the list could be long.  But the point is that the list of successful 6th round - undrafted QBs begins with Kurt Warner, ends with Tom Brady, and has very little (Tony Romo and...help me out people...)  in between.  There's a reason you can only name a few great street free agents at each position: they're the anomaly. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Kurt Warner, ends with Tom Brady, and has very little (Tony Romo and...help me out people...)  in between.  There's a reason you can only name a few great street free agents at each position: they're the anomaly. 

UDFA QBs that have been to a pro-bowl includes Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Warren Moon (HOF), Kurt Warner AND others. 

Now if you want to expand it to the 6th round and later you can not only add Tom Brady, but guys like Johnny Unitas (not just a probowler he has a bust in Canton), Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, George Blanda (HOF),  Roger Staubach (HOF), Bart Starr (HOF) and OTHERS.

And keep in mind a guy like Unitas who was drafted in the 9th round, today would be an UDFA because we have less rounds.

[tits muldoon]

How do know when your front office officially sucks? When UDFA or solid "late bloomers" continually beat out the high draft picks. But that would seem to be a trademark of a Sparano coached team.

[JVides]

UDFA QBs that have been to a pro-bowl includes Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Warren Moon (HOF), Kurt Warner AND others. 

Now if you want to expand it to the 6th round and later you can not only add Tom Brady, but guys like Johnny Unitas (not just a probowler he has a bust in Canton), Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, George Blanda (HOF),  Roger Staubach (HOF), Bart Starr (HOF) and OTHERS.

And keep in mind a guy like Unitas who was drafted in the 9th round, today would be an UDFA because we have less rounds.

And yet still, aren't these guys the exception rather than the norm?  Wouldn't Unitas, Blanda, and Starr be more understandable given that college scouting then was not what it is now?  Wasn't Staubach undrafted because he attended a military college and then had to do a 4 year military tour before even entering the NFL?  Wasn't Moon's draft position the product of the "black QBs can't play in this league"racism?  All these guys are the exception, not the rule.  If the rule were that UDFAs make it as often as drafted guys, then NFL rosters would be littered with starters that were UDFAs. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

And yet still, aren't these guys the exception rather than the norm?  Wouldn't Unitas, Blanda, and Starr be more understandable given that college scouting then was not what it is now?  Wasn't Staubach undrafted because he attended a military college and then had to do a 4 year military tour before even entering the NFL?  Wasn't Moon's draft position the product of the "black QBs can't play in this league"racism?  All these guys are the exception, not the rule.  If the rule were that UDFAs make it as often as drafted guys, then NFL rosters would be littered with starters that were UDFAs. 

Yes, you are more likely to hit future hall of fame talent in the 1st round of the draft than in the 6th.  My point is that hitting all or even most of your draft picks is unnecessary to build a winning team.  And what is more important than being right in your draft picks is a willingness to admit the UDFA is in fact better than the high draft pick and fielding the best team you can regardless of where the guy was drafted. 

[JVides]

^^^But haven't we already agreed on this?  I've stated that I don't begrudge a team for succeeding with low round talent if they're also doing at least average work in the draft.  No team nails its entire draft.  Teams should nail at least half of it, though. 

I've never advocated sticking with your crappy early round choices despite evidence that the undrafted guy is better.  I've advocated doing all you can to make sure your high-round picks are actually good players.  IF the glass-half empty thing I first mentioned comes to pass (and to be clear, I don't think it will), then there is no way, Davone Bess and Julius Pruitt or no, that Miami's front office should be allowed to go 5 for 18 in two drafts.  I don't care how many undrafted gems they find.  5 for 18, on a talent-starved team, is ridiculous.

[Tepop84]

davone bess is not a game changing player.  if this FO didn't pick him up the team would be just about the same. Lets get back to the fact that this team is worse than the 2008 team, and doesn't have a very bright future.  the oline is terrible after they keep switching players in and out.  where is the youth on the line?  one great player and the rest are useless retreads.  the defensive backs are younger but they don't have a very high ceiling, save for davis. if they pan out they might be middle of the road starters. 

[Pappy13]

Pappy/Hoodie:
As for a list of 1st round QB busts, yes, the list could be long.  But the point is that the list of successful 6th round - undrafted QBs begins with Kurt Warner, ends with Tom Brady, and has very little (Tony Romo and...help me out people...)  in between.

The reason for this is simple, QB's are HIGHLY prized possessions.  Any QB in college that shows even the slightest bit of potential for greatness is scooped up near the top of the draft.  Seldom do QB's that have shown potential slip to the 5th round or go undrafted.  That means that 5th round QB's are complete UNKNOWN's.  There's absolutely no expectation that a 5th round QB will make the team, let alone become a star, they are nothing more than a flyer that maybe somebody saw something in or perhaps knows him personally or more likely knows someone that knows the guy personally that says he's worth giving him a shot.  That also explains why there are so many 1st round busts, just because they have shown potential in college doesn't ensure NFL ability.

My displeasure with taking Pat White in the 2nd round has NOTHING to do with the fact that he didn't pan out.  It has to do with the fact that Dolphin's weren't really in NEED of a QB at the time.  They already had Pennington, Henne and Beck (who by the way is still in the NFL at Washington and I STILL would have rather kept than White).  Why choose a QB there?  You already have a veteran coming off his best season and 2 young QB's with potential, why take another one?  That's what I just didn't understand.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Here is what I think happened.....

The Dolphins didn't draft White to play QB.  But drafted him as an athlete.  Much the way the Patriots didn't draft Edelman who played QB in college to be a QB.   White could be a running back with a better throwing arm than Brown.   But they were willing to give him a shot at competing for the QB job, if that woulld make him happy.     

The Dolphin's failure was to fully vet out White's unwillingness to play any position other than QB.  As the Dez Bryant incident shows, the Ireland needs some work on his interviewing skills.

My displeasure with taking Pat White in the 2nd round has NOTHING to do with the fact that he didn't pan out.  It has to do with the fact that Dolphin's weren't really in NEED of a QB at the time.  They already had Pennington, Henne and Beck (who by the way is still in the NFL at Washington and I STILL would have rather kept than White).  Why choose a QB there?  You already have a veteran coming off his best season and 2 young QB's with potential, why take another one?  That's what I just didn't understand.

[Pappy13]

The Dolphins didn't draft White to play QB.  But drafted him as an athlete.  Much the way the Patriots didn't draft Edelman who played QB in college to be a QB.   White could be a running back with a better throwing arm than Brown.   But they were willing to give him a shot at competing for the QB job, if that woulld make him happy.

Ok, I'll buy that, but then you still have Ronnie Brown who might be the best triggerman for the wildcat in the NFL, again you don't really NEED White.  Now maybe you think he's an upgrade to Brown, but there are LOTS of other positions of bigger NEED on the team in my humble opinion.

I understand going for the best available athlete if you already have a decent team with few glaring holes.  When you are rebuilding, I think you got to look at need before best available.  And yes there's a train of thought that says you take best available athlete when you are rebuilding because you need everything, but I don't think the Dolphins were quite in that boat.  They were coming off an 11-5 season.  Obviously there were a few things in place, but they needed to plug some holes and get younger in some places, not take the best available.

That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Ok, I'll buy that, but then you still have Ronnie Brown who might be the best triggerman for the wildcat in the NFL, again you don't really NEED White.  Now maybe you think he's an upgrade to Brown, but there are LOTS of other positions of bigger NEED on the team in my humble opinion.

Options...options....options. The power of the wildcat is it ability to make the offense unpredictable.  White can throw the ball down field (or at least the Dolphins thought he could when they drafted him).  Brown can't.  Have Henne line up at WR and you don't need to cover him, the Dolphins never throw him the ball.  Have White line up at WR and have Brown throw a 5 yarder to a completely open White. 

RB get injured more often than QBs.   Depth at wildcat trigger man is not a bad thing. 

I think he was drafted too high.  You take a flyer on a guy like this in later rounds, not round 2.  But I can understand how they wanted to expand Hennings options for creativity.  The biggest strength the Dolphins have in my opinion is the OC.