FO not that good.

[Tepop84]

Seriously the front office has done a terrible job on this team.  If you took this team right now, and had them play the 2008 schedule, do you think they would finish 11-5 or better.  I don't.  They are worse off at every position except wr and ilb.  the secondary is terrible, the oline has regressed, henne isn't good. But, do you honestly think this team would finish 11-5 or better in 2008???

[Tenshot13]

The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!  I'm not worried at all.  If we start out 0-3 or 0-4 then maybe I'll start worrying.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

The two posters in this thread can best decribed as




VS

[Tepop84]

some more of their high draft picks have been cut.  sean smith sucks, henne sucks, parcells and co are terrible.

[JVides]

And now, I shall attempt to rationally explain Tepop's position:

2008 Draft Picks:
1(1) Jake Long - Solid Pro-Bowler
1(32) Philip Merling - Bad enough to necessitate picking Jared Ordick in 2010
2(26) Chad Henne - Unknown at this point.  I said UNKNOWN, Tepop!  
3(66) Kendall Langford - Solid but unspectacular.  Given he's a 3-4 end, this is not surprising.
4(11) Shawn Murphy - No longer on the roster
6(10) Jalen Parmalee - No longer on the roster
6(29) Donald Thomas - No longer on the roster
6(38) Lex Hilliard - Nice player for the pick position
7(38) Lionel Dotson - No longer on the roster

The 2008 draft has netted one certifiably good player (Long), one player whose career will be made or broken this year (Henne), one who has proven to be steady but unspectacular (Langford), one headcase (Merling), one special teamer (Hilliard) and 4 guys that are either on other teams or out of the league.  We'll say they went 4 for 9 in this draft.

2009 to come... 

[JVides]

2009 Draft Picks:

1(25) Vontae Davis - Potential Pro-Bowler.
2(12) Pat White - Oof...
2(29) Sean Smith - Struggling.  Benched for...Jason Allen?!
3(23) Patrick Turner (Oof...)
4(-8)  Brian Hartline - Excellent pickup, as it turns out.  Considered a reach at the time
5(25) John Nalbone - His first play in week 1 will be...his first
5(29) Chris Clemons - Hopefully the answer at safety
6(-8)  Andrew Gardner - Think he was cut
7(5)  JD Folsom - Think he was cut too

Stats for the 2009 class:   2 certain hits (Hartline, Davis), 1 probable hit (Smith), 2 possible contributors (Clemons, Nalbone).  I'll bank on one of the two making it, giving the front office a 4/9 rating again.

[JVides]

When compared, here's the trend:

Picks in the 6th and 7th rounds aren't sticking, as only Lex Hilliard remains from those two drafts. (1 for 6)

Picks in rounds 1-3 are very hit or miss, with White, Turner, and probably Merling having played their last games as Dolphins, Henne, Langford and Smith still largely unproven, and only Long and Davis performing as expected (that's a best-case scenario of 5 for 8, worst case 2 for 8-).

Picks in rounds 4-5 have yielded nice players (Hartline, Clemons) but also non-factors (Nalbone, Murphy).  (2 for 4)

If you're a glass-half-empty kind of guy, and expect all of the unproven/struggling players to fail, then Miami is 5 for 18 in these two drafts.  Hence, the Tepop rant...

[Tepop84]

and then factor in all the free agents busts, and you see this fo is terrible.  If they win 6 games this year it will be a miracle.  Parcells should have left town when everyone thought he was good.  This year he will be exposed as a joke.  This team is worse than 2008.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If you're a glass-half-empty kind of guy, and expect all of the unproven/struggling players to fail, then Miami is 5 for 18 in these two drafts.  Hence, the Tepop rant...

Tepop is right as is every guy like him in every teams fan base. 

Consider this....the team assemble 80 players that the FO thought to be capable of playing at a high level in the NFL and contribute to a team as it pursues the superbowl.  Of those 80 men the trio determined be top notch football players, a shocking thirty or so of them have since failed to make the final roster.  That's right, thirty misses.  Thirty failures of talent sections. Thirty awful and horrible scouting reports. And not that, the same thing happened last year.  And given the track we can expect equally pitiful results next year.  Doesn't matter if the miss was a high draft pick and a hit was an UDFA or vice versa.  It is thirty cases of utter failure on the behalf of management.  Thirty misses and only fifty hits, what a disgrace. 

[JVides]

Well, Hoodie, you actually need to hit on the early round picks.  Guys in the first few rounds usually have an exceptional trait (speed, strength, overall athleticism, whatever) that separate them from 5th rounders.  Those guys put you over the top.  You need to get those guys right, and this front office has been mediocre through two drafts. 

First rounders cost so much, and roster depth is built in rounds 2-5 (is what is commonly said).  I don't mind if 6th and 7th rounders don't make the team. I do mind if, time and again, second rounders don't make it.  We've lived through the Wanny years, when draft after draft went wrong, and I certainly don't think we're headed for a second rounf of that.  However, I can at least understand Tepop's point.  Given the serious talent overhaul this team needed, more of these picks should be sticking.

Put it this way:  you know how, lately, the Pats' drafts have kind of sucked?  Notice how your team seems so much more mortal lately?  I think there's a correlation between the two.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

JVides,  Here is how I see it…you need to build a team.  Doesn’t matter much how you build it.  Do you want to hit on your high draft picks?  Of course.  Do you want to find gems in the rough with the low draft picks and UDFA?  Of course.  Is the first more important than the second?  Not at all.

Let me take it to the extreme….

Let say a team needs help at cornerback.  They draft a guy in the second round that is considered one of the best college cornerbacks.  They also grab a nobody CB as an UDFA.  In camp and pre-season games it becomes clear that the 2nd rounder can’t play at the pro level and is absolutely crap.  However, you can’t believe what the kid Butthole Community College can do when given a chance.  He is totally shutting down your #1 WR in practice so give him a chance to start with the ones in the preseason and not a single completion is made on the WR he is covering.  So comes the Saturday before Labor day and the 2nd rounder is on the wavier wire and the UDFA is named as a starter for week 1.  Did the team screw up?  Should the scouting department be fired?  I say no.  The team needed help at cornerback, they got help at cornerback.  Who cares if the second rounder got cut and the UDFA is starting, all that matters is you upgraded at cornerback.  That was the goal. 

Let’s look at the tale of two Dolphin WRs.   Ted Ginn and Wes Welker.  Yeah, the Dolphin’s screwed up by drafting Ted Ginn.  But they also found a WR that is in fact first round talent on the SD UDFA scrap heap.  (Ignore the subsequent mistake of letting him go to a division rival for this discussion).   So for every knock on the team for lousy scouting of a WR for Ginn, gets equalized by the great find of Welker. 

The one exception to this is first round picks at the top of the draft where a mistake not only cost you a pick, but huge cap implications. 

[Philly Fin Fan]

Let’s look at the tale of two Dolphin WRs.   Ted Ginn and Wes Welker.  Yeah, the Dolphin’s screwed up by drafting Ted Ginn.  But they also found a WR that is in fact first round talent on the SD UDFA scrap heap.  (Ignore the subsequent mistake of letting him go to a division rival for this discussion).   So for every knock on the team for lousy scouting of a WR for Ginn, gets equalized by the great find of Welker. 

I understand the point you are trying to make, but you are talking about two totally different front offices scouting  Welker and Ginn (Welker was signed in 2004, and Ginn was drafted in 2007.)

[JVides]

Hoodie,  I agree in part with what you say, but my feeling is if that you're getting your draft right, the UDFAs don't make your team, as they are usually bottom of the roster types and the drafted guys are just plain better.  Street free agents becoming NFL stars is rare for a reason.  Being missed by one team is understandable.  7, even.  Being missed by 32 teams 7 times over is not understandable.  Usually - and I stress usually - it's because the guy can't play or has a low ceiling or a huge coke problem.  You have got to hit in rounds 1-3.  Bottom line.

Don't get me wrong.  These past few drafts have been better than the Wannstedt / Spielman 6 year car-wreck.  I just wish guys drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds would crack the rotation more often, or, hell, even the team.

[Phishfan]

Hoodie,  I agree in part with what you say, but my feeling is if that you're getting your draft right, the UDFAs don't make your team, as they are usually bottom of the roster types and the drafted guys are just plain better. 

Then you have a problem with 32 front offices and not just one. Every team has UDFAs on it and it will continue through history. I agree they tend to not be stars in most cases, but saying they shoudln't make the roster has been highly disproven by the entire league.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I am assembling a team...what do you think....

Offense:

QB -Tony Romo,  Jeff Garcia,
OL - Shaun O'Hara, Jason Peters, Brian Waters
WR - Miles Austin, Wes Welker
RB - Priest Holmes, Willie Parker, Clifton Smith, Rod Smith
TE - Antonio Gates

Defense:
DL - John Randle, Pat Williams
Linebackers - James Harrison, Antonio Pierce, Bart Scott
Safety - Mark Murphy

Special Teams
P – Darren Bennett or Mat McBriar (can’t decide)
K – Robbie Gould

Now I know this is not a complete team and my OL, DL and secondary all needs some beefing up.  But with this as a core do you think I could put together some competitive games.  Even if I missed on a few draft picks.