Dolphins - Bills Week 1 Discussion

[Doc-phin]

I think it is good to start the weekly game discussions a little early since I have noticed that posts seem to be a little lower over the weekends.  By the same token feel free to continue this thread through and even past game time.

Score Predictions go in the other thread, this is for discussion.

I will start out by saying that I think the Bills are being significantly under-rated by the media.  I feel like they are built for speed and their only major downsides are that they aren't consistant in pass protection (with a QB that doesn't do well if he gets hit) and they are small on the D-line when going up against power run teams. 

Otherwise...  They have a great D-backfield, Evans and Parrish are speedy threats, dangerous running backs, a QB that has a decent amount of experience and bust on their head coach if you want but he was a pretty good offensive coordinator so you can expect a solid game plan.

I still think we will win, but I expect us to run the ball an awful lot and the game to be fairly low scoring overall.  Hopefully we can get ahead in the score and tee off on Edwards late.  We need to be extra prepared for screen passes and swing passes.  My guess is they will use this to slow down our rush bring up our safeties and set us up to go over top.  Clemons needs to show discipline and not look into the backfield too much.

[Pappy13]

Here in Dallas all the talk is about how the Dallas offense looked really pedestrian in preseason and yet all the comments from the Dallas players is to the effect that it's only preseason and there's nothing to worry about, that once the season starts everything will be fine.  The worry is that the players aren't really sensing that there really is a problem and don't have a sense of urgency to fix the problem because of the success they had last year.  So what's this got to do with Miami? 

Well I sense a similar problem in Miami, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They really haven't been chided much in the preseason even though they haven't looked any better than the offense and when you talk to the players all you hear is wait till the season starts and we unleash Nolan's defense on the unsuspecting opponent.  Well personally I'm not buying it.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm really worried that we are all in for a rude awakening.  I've not seen anything in preseason that convinces me this defense has improved from the end of last year where it was very near the bottom of the league and we may have taken a step back.  Do you remember the game against Houston where we were behind 27-0 in the 2nd quarter?  That can't happen.

Granted it's Buffalo and they probably won't be able to take advantage of the defense like Houston did, but the defense is still the biggest worry about this team that I have.  Henne and the offense will be good enough to win games as long as the defense isn't giving up 30 points a game.

[Doc-phin]

Most, if not all, of us remember the Texans game!  Can't remember which Dolphin said "see you after the scrimmage", but we were embarrassed by an inferior team that day for sure.

However, there is some merit to the idea of not getting wrapped up in preseason.  History tells us that typically the opening games see a lack of offense and an explosion of offense either week 2 or three.  However, it is obvious that the level of play and complexity of scheme takes a dramatic jump once the opener arrives.  The Saints - Vikings game demonstrated offensive inconsistency with the defenses settling in after the first few series.  Favre waited too long (IMO) to get his surgery and return to practice, and that seemed to be his main source of struggle.  But you could see that both teams were opening it up pretty good in comparison to preseason play.

[masterfins]

Well, if the Fins lose this game we are in for a long season.  Tepop will start with his bench Henne rants, oh wait he already started them. 

[Pappy13]

However, there is some merit to the idea of not getting wrapped up in preseason.

If it were only preseason I would agree.  In my opinion the reason the Dolphins finished 0-3 last year was the defense.  It was terrible.  What if anything has changed?

[dolfan13]

im with the whole preseason doesn't mean a whole lot of anything crowd, but the fact is that the question marks this team had going into this season all seem to be unanswered at this point.

secondary wasn't very good last year, didn't look good in preseason. special teams coverage wasn't good last year, didn't look good in preseason. questions about the pass rush in offseason, pass rush was non-existent in preseason. go out and get marshall in offseason to help for more explosive offense, offense looked anemic in preseason. questions about interior o-line in offseason, interior o-line in preseason looked bad.

point is that while preseason is just that, basically glorified scrimmage, the team absolutely showed no evidence to dismiss any of the questions going into this season. until they come out and put a beat down on a very bad bills team in orchard park sunday, these questions will hang like storm clouds over this team.

[Fau Teixeira]

the defense last year did have quite a few injuries it was going through

[Doc-phin]

If it were only preseason I would agree.  In my opinion the reason the Dolphins finished 0-3 last year was the defense.  It was terrible.  What if anything has changed?

New coordinator, Dansby in for Ayodele, More speed at FS with Clemons over Wilson, progression of Vontae, Odrick (who has looked very solid so far), younger NT in Starks, replacement of a declining player in Porter, not sure about the plus or minus of replacing Jason Taylor yet.

Seriously...  OUR DEFENSE WILL BE BETTER THIS YEAR!!!  IT WAS JUST PRESEASON!!!  So, relax.

[Pappy13]

the defense last year did have quite a few injuries it was going through

None of which are now healthy and starting.

[Sunstroke]

I worry about our defense as well, and wonder if CJ Spiller will have too much speed for our LB corps to handle. I worry about Jason Allen being one of our starting CBs, and feel like Lee Evans might go all Lee Evans on us again (remember his 3-TD game down here?)

I try not to put a lot of stock in preseason "win-loss records," but I do tend to put a bit of stock in preseason "how do they actually look." Miami hasn't looked good this preseason at all.

[Pappy13]

New coordinator, Dansby in for Ayodele, More speed at FS with Clemons over Wilson, progression of Vontae, Odrick (who has looked very solid so far), younger NT in Starks, replacement of a declining player in Porter, not sure about the plus or minus of replacing Jason Taylor yet.

That's the sunny view.  Here's the doom and gloom view. 

A new defensive coordinator means it takes a little while for the Dolphins to figure out the defense especially with several young players.  Blitzing exposes the DB's where you have Clemons a 2nd year player, Vontae a 2nd year player and under achieving Jason Allen because 2nd year player Sean Smith is having a case of the sophomore slump.  Odrick is a rookie.  Starks is moving to a new position and is small for a NT.  Porter and Taylor while declining were former pro-bowlers and are being replaced with young and inexperienced players that no one is sure they are any good yet.  Crowder is injured so we are depending on Tim Dobbins to step up in his place.

There are question marks across the entire defense except for Dansby, Langford and Bell.  That's scary.

I'm certain it won't be as bad as the doom and gloom view, but the sunny view seems a bit optimistic to me.

[Brian Fein]

I think Jason Allen starting is great for the Dolphins.  Jason Allen is a good player that gets crapped on because he's not a #1 pick talent.  But he's quite good, a great physical player and excellent tackler.  He may surprise some of you nay-sayers this week.

[David Fulcher]

I think Jason Allen starting is great for the Dolphins.  Jason Allen is a good player that gets crapped on because he's not a #1 pick talent.  But he's quite good, a great physical player and excellent tackler.  He may surprise some of you nay-sayers this week.

I agree, Brian...Jason is gonna do just fine.  As you say, while not a "#1 pick talent", this guy is not bad at all and given the fact that he hasn't been given much of a chance these past few seasons but has played fine to decent when he's been on the field, I'm optimistic.  Granted, while I am disappointed that Sean Smith hasn't stepped his game up and is partly *to blame* for this promotion of Jason Allen, I also think it has something to do with the fact that Allen has looked good.

As for everything else, while I have my reservations with this year's team, particularly the interior (C and both G's) progression, or lack thereof, as well as potentially Henne's and his coordination with our offseason jewel of an acquistion offensively, I think that there is way too much doom-and-gloom going on here.  I don't think we'll go much better than 9-7 or maybe 10-6, and while that might be disappointing, I don't think we're going to be terrible like more than half the people on here seem to be implying.  We shall see, though......

[dolfan13]

jason allen has been pretty crappy as a player so far regardless of his draft status... he got roasted in preseason by roddy white, and i haven't seen the improvement.

but, articles like this one makes you wonder whether he actually is turning a corner: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/09/10/1818681/allen-gets-his-chance-to-focus.html

he really did earn this opportunity to start, and has put in a significant amount of work to get better as a cornerback. with all the crap he has dealt with since getting drafted, it says something about his mental makeup that he has stuck with it, and busted his butt to get on the field.

whether that transitions into an improvement remains to be seen, but most spoiled athletes would've dogged it in camp to get the hell out of this place.

[Doc-phin]

That's the sunny view.  Here's the doom and gloom view. 

A new defensive coordinator means it takes a little while for the Dolphins to figure out the defense especially with several young players.  Blitzing exposes the DB's where you have Clemons a 2nd year player, Vontae a 2nd year player and under achieving Jason Allen because 2nd year player Sean Smith is having a case of the sophomore slump.  Odrick is a rookie.  Starks is moving to a new position and is small for a NT.  Porter and Taylor while declining were former pro-bowlers and are being replaced with young and inexperienced players that no one is sure they are any good yet.  Crowder is injured so we are depending on Tim Dobbins to step up in his place.

There are question marks across the entire defense except for Dansby, Langford and Bell.  That's scary.

I'm certain it won't be as bad as the doom and gloom view, but the sunny view seems a bit optimistic to me.

Honestly, I wasn't trying to be sunny.  I was just pointing out the differences.  Although, I can see how you thought that.  But to rebut a little...  

A new D-coordinator sometimes means a few years, but that isn't exactly as much of a rule as it used to be.  I think it applies a little more in the case of new O-coordinators.  Starks isn't as fat as many Nose Tackles, but his weight is pretty normal at the position.  He is a little more muscular than the average nose, which I view as a positive and particularly lends to the ability to play more downs.  Odrick being a rookie isn't really a concern at his position.  If he were a QB or WR, then I could understand but at his position it is all about talent and athleticism which I feel he has both.

As far as the switch out of Taylor and Porter, you and I agree.  We don't know what the switch will bring.  However, I will say that Porter was particularly crappy against the run and didn't offer much by way of pass rush last season so I feel pretty good about anybody replacing him.  But you are right, we need pass rush without sending guys from the backfield and we don't know for sure if it will happen from our front seven.