With the 15th pick in 2011NFL Draft The Miami Dolphins select...

[hordman]

just got this off the sportsline.com MIA team news:

Jan. 25, 2011 2:44 p.m. - TCU QB Andy Dalton is ranked among the top five QBs by NFL Network’s Mike Mayock. Maybe Dalton is a possibility for Miami at No. 15. He’s an accomplished passer who could be a good fit. One report says Miami likes Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick

first off, let's address the QB pick.  Dalton is not the answer.  I like the kid, but he's not a 1st round NFL material and would prob be better as an early 3rd round pick.

Kaepernick, seriously?  I saw a clip on NFL Network the other day and Mike Mayock was commenting on him.  I thought he was gonna unload in his pants.  he said "I don't know what I like about him, but he's got it"?.............huh? 

I've seen Kaepernick play the pistol in college and against lesser talent in the WAC.  he carries the ball like a loaf of bread and turns the ball over waaaaaay too much. 

if anyone for the QB, I like Ryan Mallet. 

but for the 1st round of this year's draft, I'd take Ingram.  solid RB, no break away speed, but he sees the holes well plays hard.  he's lke emmitt smith when he came out of FLA.  he's not going to light up the combine but he'll be solid in the NFL.

Ronnie is dancing too much and I think Ricky burned some bridges about a month ago and wont be back.

[fyo]

I think Ronnie can be more than solid behind the right O-line. He starts to "dance", as you call it, when he's unsure of his blockers. That's not good, of course, just saying that a better O-line and he'll be fine.

What I'd really like, and what I think we need, is exactly what Ingram isn't: A shifty, speedy guy. I don't mind if he's a bit undersized, but someone with some serious burst. Anyone like that in the draft this year? The projections I've seen only have one running back in each of the first two rounds...

[MikeO]

NEVER draft a RB early in Rd 1 unless its a sure fire guy like Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson. Ingram isn't on that level.

Don't take him!!

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

NEVER draft a RB early in Rd 1 unless its a sure fire guy

Is it okay to take DT, QB, linebackers or punters early in the first round that aren't sure fire guys?

I fail to see why it is worse to draft a bust RB such as Blair Thomas early in round 1 than Ryan Leaf or Vern Gholston or Charles Rogers. 

Early in the first round take sure fire guys at any position.  Gambles are for later rounds.   

[MikeO]

Is it okay to take DT, QB, linebackers or punters early in the first round that aren't sure fire guys?

Yeah because teams draft punters in Rd 1.

That stupid analogy killed all your credibility on this topic.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Yeah because teams draft punters in Rd 1.

That stupid analogy killed all your credibility on this topic.

Russell Erxleben, Steve Little & Ray Guy all say hi!

Now answer the question..... 

For what positions is it okay to draft someone other than a sure fire guy in round 1?

[CF DolFan]

That is a very common theory. Most teams feel they have a short life and you can always pick up a serviceable back later on. Other positions have a much larger chance of staying on the team.

[Dave Gray]

I agree with MikeO's position, but kind of in a different way.

If you have a surefire punter that could change the game and you've been having problems with the position -- sure, draft a punter.  I'd rather have Reggie Roby back than about half of the stiffs we've drafted in the first round.  And for as much crap as the Raiders took for drafting Janikowski, he's a guy that's done well and been on the roster since.

But I think that's he's right about RBs in general.  There are certain types of players (I don't think anything is a "sure thing") that change the position....guys that are considerably better than their position.  Adrien Peterson comes to mind.  A guy like that changes a game by simply being on the field.

I don't think that's true for most RBs.  Most of the time, a difference between a good player and a bad one is a difference of a yard here or there through the same hole, and the lifespan of the position is short.  It's not worth drafting a "good" RB in the first round, in my opinion.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.  Whether or not Ingram is that, I can't say.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

It's not worth drafting a "good" RB in the first round, in my opinion.  It's only worth drafting a superb one. 

I agree with that....but why I think it is just a bad cliche is....

It's not worth drafting a "good" DT in the first round.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.
It's not worth drafting a "good" WR in the first round.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.
It's not worth drafting a "good" DE in the first round.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.
It's not worth drafting a "good" CB in the first round.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.
It's not worth drafting a "good" SS in the first round.  It's only worth drafting a superb one.

etc. 

[MikeO]

RB's are only as good as their o-line. And you can win a Super Bowl with a medicore RB. You find servicable to good RB's anywhere.

Finding a great LT or a great QB or a great DT off the street or in the later rounds is rare. Not impossible obviously there is always exceptions to the rule. But there are a handful of positions where there is more value taking them in the early rounds and in Round 1. RB isn't one of those positions.

Look at the 2005 draft as a case in point. Ronnie Brown, Cadaliac Williams, Cedric Bension all went quick. All nice players, nothing special. Then consider Priest Holmes and Willie Parker types go undrafted and have a 2 or 3 year run as a top RB. Michael Turner in Rd 5, Terrell Davis in Rd 6, Fred Jackson goes undrafted! Unless its a special player that all the scouts say this guy is truly special (ie Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson)....guys that come around once every 10 years or so usually. It's not worth it.

There is more value drafting at another position. Especially for a team that has a ton of holes like Miami does.  If its a "NOW" team looking for a final piece to put them over the top, ok roll the dice on a RB in Rd 1 (ie Colts with Addai or Pitt with Mendenhall).....but for a team that has to  fill a ton of voids, give me a NT, or a CB, or an OLB, or a LT....a non-sexy building block piece that matters.  Not a dime a dozen runing back

[MikeO]

I agree with MikeO's position, but kind of in a different way.

If you have a surefire punter that could change the game and you've been having problems with the position -- sure, draft a punter.  I'd rather have Reggie Roby back than about half of the stiffs we've drafted in the first round.  And for as much crap as the Raiders took for drafting Janikowski, he's a guy that's done well and been on the roster since.

And drafting a kicker in Rd 1 really jump started the Raiders off to many years of winn.....oh wait, LOSING!

Any team that drafts a kicker before round 7 is dumb. And to be honest no kicker should be drafted period.  They are too hot and cold

[Dave Gray]

And drafting a kicker in Rd 1 really jump started the Raiders off to many years of winn.....oh wait, LOSING!

Any team that drafts a kicker before round 7 is dumb. And to be honest no kicker should be drafted period.  They are too hot and cold

Not many teams have won the super bowl in the last ten years, so if that is your only metric for success, you're going to find a lot of things wrong with just about everyone.  It doesn't mean that none of those teams have ever made a good move.

I think that Janikowski turned out to be an OK pick for the Raiders.  They have a metric-ton of other problems, but that wasn't one of them.  We picked bums who never made an impact on the field.  Janikowski has at least solidified his position for a decade.  It's not like picking Tom Brady, but it's better than picking Ted Ginn.

[MikeO]

Not many teams have won the super bowl in the last ten years, so if that is your only metric for success, you're going to find a lot of things wrong with just about everyone.  It doesn't mean that none of those teams have ever made a good move.

I think that Janikowski turned out to be an OK pick for the Raiders.  They have a metric-ton of other problems, but that wasn't one of them.  We picked bums who never made an impact on the field.  Janikowski has at least solidified his position for a decade.  It's not like picking Tom Brady, but it's better than picking Ted Ginn.

It was a terrible pick taking Janikowski in Rd 1. And there have been comperable kickers to him that went undrafted. Like 31 others! Using a 1st round pick on a kicker is the dumbest thing ever, no way to put a positive spin on it.

Plus paying 1st round money to a kicker in the salary cap era,  you got to be kidding!

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

RB's are only as good as their o-line. And you can win a Super Bowl with a medicore RB. You find servicable to good RB's anywhere.

Finding a great LT or a great QB or a great DT off the street or in the later rounds is rare. Not impossible obviously there is always exceptions to the rule. But there are a handful of positions where there is more value taking them in the early rounds and in Round 1. RB isn't one of those positions.

I agree with both of your statements.  But they aren't the same statement.

Yes, it is true that you can find serviceable RBs in later rounds.  It is also true that it is rare to find a great QB, LT or DT outside the first round.

However, you can find serviceable LT, DT or QB in later rounds.  And it is rare to find great RBs later on. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

BTW:  Here is my draft philosophy of early rounds vs. later rounds.

Early: Very conservative. 

Judge each player not by his upside but his downside -- draft the player with the least downside.
Don't draft projects. 
Don't draft guys for positions they haven't played (e.g. a college 4-3 DE to play a 3-4 LB in the NFL). 
Avoid anyone with character issues. 
Avoid college players that because of their style may or may not be able to make the transition to pros even though they had success in college (e.g. Tim Tebow)
Avoid guys with a history of injury problems.
If the perfect guy isn't there, try to trade down or out.  Don't reach for a player.

Late very aggressive.

Judge each player by his upside -- draft the player with the maximum upside.
Draft projects.
Draft guys you think are playing the wrong position.  A QB you think might make a very good WR.  A nose tackle you think ought be playing as a guard. 
Go for the guys who would have been drafted 2 rounds ago "but for" what ever that but for is:  character, injury, etc.
Draft the backup QB to a Heisman winner that his college coach said was a very close competition.
Reach if you want.  So what if Mel Kipper thinks he is a 7th round or UDFA quality player.  If in your opinion he is the BAP in the 4th round draft him.   

Here is my thinking.  In round one you don't want to draft a guy that might not make it but you can't cut because of salary cap issues.  You absolutely need to avoid the Vern Gholstons of the world.  Or even the Ted Ginns where one of your highest paid players is nothing more than a special team's ace. 

However in the later rounds it is better to grab a guy that might not be able to play WR at all, but might actually be a very good WR, but nobody really knows if he can play WR cause he has been playing QB since peewee over a guy you are very confident is a lock to be the 4th best WR on the team but has almost no chance of every making it to the #3 spot.  With these guys bring in, give them 2 camps and if at the end of camp year 2 they aren't on the right path cut them and so what you wasted a 5th round pick.  OTOH you might have found a pro-bowler in the 5th round.