Drafting a quarterback

[fyo]

Every time someone brings up spending a first round pick on a quarterback, the "Brady" argument surfaces. Yeah, sure, it is possible to find good quarterbacks outside the top 32, but it's very unlikely.

One interesting note when looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round is that it really seems like success is determined mostly by the team that drafted you. First round quarterbacks picked by the Bengals, Lions, Browns, Cardinals? In recent memory, they've all failed.

First round quarterbacks picked by a team with its shit together? They do a lot better.

At this point it feels like Henne, Beck etc. aren't really the problem... rather, the problem is that we've become the Bengals/Lions/Browns/Cardinals. (Yes, I realize neither Henne nor Beck were actually drafted in the first round.)

Until the Dolphins become a better ORGANIZATION, it doesn't matter what quarterback is drafted. (Sorry, Stroke, the same goes for your 49ers.)

Just for fun, look at the top quarterbacks in the league right now... These are my personal choices, feel free to disagree:

Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Brees... All picked in the top 32. I like Palmer too, but he got drafted by the Bengals and is thus destined for mediocrity. Had he landed with a good team, he could have been Hall of Fame caliber player.

Who are the most promising young guys? Flacco and Matt Ryan would probably be my top choices, both first round picks. No one else right now has me convinced they can be really good. Sanchez, maybe, and he's also a first rounder.

Almost all good quarterbacks are first round picks, but they're also almost always chosen by solid teams. We need a good quarterback, yes, but I'm convinced it isn't going to make a difference (we won't be able to see what we had was a good quarterback and the player will wind up middling) until the FRANCHISE as a whole improves. This is what I hoped Parcells would bring to the table, and to some extent I think he has, but now we need stability and more improvement. Good coaching, good drafting, solid free agents... the whole package.

Note: Yes, I've fudged the numbers slightly by including Brees. As stated, he was drafted in the top 32. First pick of the second round in 2001.

[Sunstroke]

Until the Dolphins become a better ORGANIZATION, it doesn't matter what quarterback is drafted. (Sorry, Stroke, the same goes for your 49ers.)

I actually disagree with this statement. With all the talent that SF has built up on the O-line and RB/WR/TE lately, I think they are at a perfect place to upgrade their QB. I think Miami needs to do the same upgrading of offensive support positions before they can get away with it though.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Every time someone brings up spending a first round pick on a quarterback, the "Brady" argument surfaces. Yeah, sure, it is possible to find good quarterbacks outside the top 32, but it's very unlikely.

True.

Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Brees... All picked in the top 32. I like Palmer too, but he got drafted by the Bengals and is thus destined for mediocrity. Had he landed with a good team, he could have been Hall of Fame caliber player.

not true.

[fyo]

not true.

Right, forgot to include the "except Brady" that started the whole thing. Not going to edit it now...

[Phishfan]

I think your theory is flawed. Look back in history and you will find most of these teams you are calling good, were in fact not very good when they drafted these QBs. The Colts took Peyton with the #2 pick. I've never really known of a good team qualifying to pick at number 2. The Chargers were 8-8 when they drafted Rivers. Not far from where the Dolphins sit now. The Steelers were 6-10 when they drafted Ben. Teams with these types of records are not good teams.

[fyo]

I actually disagree with this statement. With all the talent that SF has built up on the O-line and RB/WR/TE lately, I think they are at a perfect place to upgrade their QB. I think Miami needs to do the same upgrading of offensive support positions before they can get away with it though.

I haven't seen much of the 49ers this year, so you could well be right.

[fyo]

I think your theory is flawed. Look back in history and you will find most of these teams you are calling good, were in fact not very good when they drafted these QBs.

I did take that into consideration. Yes, teams that draft high are often bad teams, but that just makes it so much more conspicuous that the production of quarterbacks drafted by the likes of the Lions, Bengals, Cardinals, Browns has been so miserable.

As for Manning, he is (IMHO) by far the best quarterback in recent memory. Heck, "forever" in terms of my personal memory .

In any event, my conclusion from this wasn't so much that you had to be a TOP team, but rather that a  group of (not-very-good) teams CONSISTENTLY get poor production from top quarterback picks. Are they really that bad at scouting, or, as I believe to be the case, does it have a lot more to do with the organization and surrounding talent?

I heard LaDainian Tomlinson (I think it was) recently say that 95% of players in the NFL could become stars if given the right situation. That number is probably inflated, but IMHO the value of position coaching (especially), organization and surrounding talent is VASTLY underrated by fans, "talking heads", and experts alike.