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Author Topic: 18 game season (split off)  (Read 25016 times)
Dave Gray
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« Reply #75 on: January 13, 2011, 10:37:32 pm »


But whatever, I will agree to disagree and move on. Cause you ain't changing my mind and I won't change yours.

There is nothing to disagree with.  Again, it's not my opinion.  It is fact.  You can't disagree with a fact.  Saying that I can't change your mind is really a testament to your stubbornness, as I (and many other people in this thread) are pointing out that you are arguing with futility.  It is as simple as 1+1=2.  It is not insane.  It is math.  Look it up.

I am speaking statistically, only.  There are always possibilities that in one season, teams will bunch up.  But, over a long-enough timeline, statistically speaking, there will be more meaningless games near the end of the season.

Think of it like this: Statistically speaking, a coin flips at 50%.  You may get heads 8 out of 10, with only 10 flips (or 80%).  ....but over time, if you continue to flip, that number will get closer to 50%.

This is the same.  There are many variables, but over a long enough timeline, those variables will become negligible.
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SportsChick
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« Reply #76 on: January 14, 2011, 09:47:39 am »

This thread makes my head hurt. I hated Stats but Dave is right, the more chances you add to something, it hurts less when you lose one.  Look at a final exam. Your professor gives you an exam with 16 questions.  Each one counts for 6.25 points. If that same professor adds two questions, it drops to 5.56 (rounded) points per question. If you miss one on the 18 question exam it hurts your score less.

That's what Dave is referring to - the weight of each game statistically counts for less because there are more of them 
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #77 on: January 14, 2011, 09:58:37 am »

One reason for DOLPHIN fans to want a longer season...1972.

It is harder to win 21 games in a row than to win 19 in a row. 
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fyo
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« Reply #78 on: January 14, 2011, 03:10:25 pm »

One thing to consider is if the league will want to use a change in scheduling to prepare for an expansion.

The problem with an expansion is that 32 is a brilliant number in this context. Having 33 or 34 teams... what a mess. But then there were 28 teams for a couple of decades, 30 for a while and even 31 teams for a couple of years... so maybe the league is willing to work with a complete mess...

Paraphrasing MikeO, although in a slightly different context, if you don't expand when popularity is at an all-time high, when do you expand?
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #79 on: January 14, 2011, 03:29:42 pm »

One thing to consider is if the league will want to use a change in scheduling to prepare for an expansion.

The problem with an expansion is that 32 is a brilliant number in this context. Having 33 or 34 teams... what a mess. But then there were 28 teams for a couple of decades, 30 for a while and even 31 teams for a couple of years... so maybe the league is willing to work with a complete mess...


33,34,&35 are not good numbers...but 36 gets you 2 conf with 3 divisions of 6 teams. 

But I don't see a real need to expand teams.  Yeah, LA wants a team but the jaguars, bills and vikings are all available. 

 
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« Reply #80 on: January 14, 2011, 03:41:58 pm »

But I don't see a real need to expand teams.  Yeah, LA wants a team but the jaguars, bills and vikings are all available. 

Minnesota is actually a pretty good market. They may struggle to sell out stadium tickets at times, but they have an iron grip on the TV ratings locally. (Unlike, say, the Miami Dolphins.)

What about Carolina? Is that really a good spot for a team in the long term? TV ratings have been trending up (before this season, anyway) and ticket sales have been solid, so they're probably not in line to move anytime soon. Just seems like an odd spot for a franchise.

Jacksonville is a given. The Jags need to move.

If the Bills go anywhere, it'll be to Canada. Won't happen, though, because they can get the eyeballs and merchandising sales with a token game up North each season.

What about London. Goodell seems hell bent on a team there. Terrible idea, IMHO.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #81 on: January 14, 2011, 03:46:34 pm »

I don't like expansion in general, because it waters things down, but if you were to go to 36, at least it would make for a desirable division structure.

I can see new teams for: Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Orlando, Nebraska, maybe Oregon  ....it could work.
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« Reply #82 on: January 14, 2011, 03:51:43 pm »

I don't like expansion in general, because it waters things down, but if you were to go to 36, at least it would make for a desirable division structure.

I can see new teams for: Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Orlando, Nebraska, maybe Oregon  ....it could work.

I'd give it to Los Angeles, Portland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City if I had to add four teams.  However, as it stands right now, I don't see the need to expand.  If the Bills and Jaguars are having money problems, they could move.  Jacksonville would probably move to LA or Orlando and Buffalo to Toronto. 
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #83 on: January 14, 2011, 04:28:00 pm »

I think that moving teams should be an absolute last resort, unless they're moving somewhat close.  Jacksonville to Orlando, for example, wouldn't be THAT bad.  ...at least it'd be some of the same fanbase.

And though I know that San Antonio could probably support a team, I'd like to see some totally new areas.  Omaha would be a really interesting place to see pro ball crop up.
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Jim Gray
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'72 - The Perfect Season

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« Reply #84 on: January 14, 2011, 04:33:47 pm »

Since I'm an hour or so north of San Antonio, I would love to see them get a team.  That said, I wonder if most central Texans are already fans of either the Texans or Cowboys.  I believe there are markets that would be better served by getting a team.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #85 on: January 14, 2011, 04:42:00 pm »

What about Carolina? Is that really a good spot for a team in the long term? TV ratings have been trending up (before this season, anyway) and ticket sales have been solid, so they're probably not in line to move anytime soon. Just seems like an odd spot for a franchise.


I'm just curious why you think Charlotte is an odd city for an NFL franchise.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #86 on: January 14, 2011, 04:45:33 pm »

Jacksonville would probably move to LA or Orlando and Buffalo to Toronto. 

No way Jacksonville moves to Orlando. Already very close and we don't have a venue. A move in such a short distance wouldn't change their woes. The Orlando market is already saturated with Tampa & Miami fans. That is why very few people are traveling there to see games. I personally don't know any Jacksonville fans and we are only a couple hours drive away.
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #87 on: January 14, 2011, 04:51:46 pm »

Build the stadium at the ESPN sports complex.  Run packages that bundle a magic kingdom admission with a game ticket.  Won't need to have much of a home fan base to sell out a game.  Particularly if you are in a division where most of the rest of the teams are northern.   
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Landshark
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« Reply #88 on: January 14, 2011, 04:54:45 pm »

No way Jacksonville moves to Orlando. Already very close and we don't have a venue. A move in such a short distance wouldn't change their woes. The Orlando market is already saturated with Tampa & Miami fans. That is why very few people are traveling there to see games. I personally don't know any Jacksonville fans and we are only a couple hours drive away.

Funny thing you mentioned is the venue.  I don't know much about Orlando, but from what people tell me, the Citrus Bowl where they have the Capital One Bowl is old, decripit, and in a bad part of town.  I went to a convention for professors in the State University System of Florida recently at the Orange County Convention Center and couldn't help but notice this wide patch of land on International Drive/Universal Blvd.  Why not build a state of the art venue there?  With all the hotels, shops, and restaurants nearby, that would be an ideal place for Orlando to host a Super Bowl/Pro Bowl or even house their own team.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #89 on: January 14, 2011, 05:12:51 pm »

It has been a while since I went to the Convention center, but it would have to be very wide. I'm not sure there is a spot there big enough. You need more than a wide patch, you need acres of land to build a NFL stadium. The current stadium in Jacksonville sits on 10 acres. Did the spot look that big?
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