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Author Topic: Owners vote to move up kickoff.  (Read 7624 times)
Dave Gray
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« on: March 23, 2011, 10:11:34 am »

They're going to move the kickoff up an additional 5 yards, which will undoubtedly cause more touchbacks, but limit injuries from so much momentum on the return.

Thoughts?

Good or bad for the game?
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chunkyb
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2011, 10:29:30 am »

bad for the game.  Terrible decision.  They should have let the guys start running from the 35 but the kickoff still from the 30.
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2011, 10:48:41 am »

We will no longer have the excitement of possibly seeing a return for a TD because the majority of them will result in touchbacks.
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2011, 11:13:51 am »

did they send the coaches on another golf outing to do this? 
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Pappy13
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2011, 11:33:16 am »

Too much is being made of this decision. I don't think it's going to change things that much.

What everone is forgetting is that they also changed the rule so that only the kicker can start more than 5 yards away from the ball. Basically all the coverage folks are gonna have to start from a stand still rather than from a running start as teams have started to do. That's gonna limit how quickly the coverage team can get down the field. Coupled with the 5 yard movement of the ball means that the coverage teams will probably still be getting to the returner about the same time as before.

My thinking is that kickers are going to try to get a little more height on the ball now and hopefully give the coverage unit a better chance to trap the returner inside his own 20 should he decide to return it. Sure there are going to be more touchbacks, but I don't think the percentage is going to double like people say it's going to. I do however think that the starting position is going to be effected and more drives are gonna be starting closer to the 20 even when teams do decide to return the kick.

The biggest difference is going to be in average starting position which is going to be moved back a bit. That could effect scoring to a degree, but not as much as people expect. Remember that poor field position for 1 team means better field position for the opposing team.
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2011, 11:36:10 am »

I think the injury theory is bunk.  

Guys can get up to top speed in 10-20 yards.  5 yards less running only makes them less tired when they get down there.  It doesn't make them accelerate less.  If anything, I'd say move the kickoff gunners BACK so they're more tired by the time they get down the field.  Of course that makes kick returns easier and gives teams better field position.

I don't see how this has any benefit, other than simply reducing the amount of returnable kicks so guys just hit and get hit less.

And it de-values kickers with the big leg.
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2011, 11:38:30 am »

It's 5 yards people!!!! Would any of you even notice the change if it had not been announced?

5 yards is one false-start call. Minor impact on the play of the game here.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2011, 11:46:33 am »

And it de-values kickers with the big leg.
I'm not sure it does. Kicking from the 30 even kickers with a big leg couldn't consistently force a touchback. Moving it up to the 35 gives kickers with a big leg a much better chance of forcing a touchback. If anything I think it improves the value of a kicker with a big leg. What it de-values is the big-play potential returner, but history has shown that punts are traditionally the way that big-play potential returners make their money anyway, not really on kick-offs.
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2011, 01:14:16 pm »

It's 5 yards people!!!! Would any of you even notice the change if it had not been announced?

5 yards is one false-start call. Minor impact on the play of the game here.
I'm not sure it does. Kicking from the 30 even kickers with a big leg couldn't consistently force a touchback. Moving it up to the 35 gives kickers with a big leg a much better chance of forcing a touchback.
How can you say this?  How many kickoffs are fielded inside the 5 yard line?  Yep - all of those are touchbacks now.

How often do you see kickers (any kicker across the league) drop a kickoff at the 10 yard line?  If he does, you think its a terrible kick.  Any kicker in the league should be able to consistently put the ball in the end zone, off a tee, from the 35 yard line.  The Janikowski's of the league now can probably put it out of the back of the end zone.

Not sure how you both don't see an impact on the game here.  Its going to be 75% or more of offensive drives starting on the 20 yard line now.  The only way you get a chance to return the kick is if the kicker screws up.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2011, 01:36:33 pm »

How can you say this?  How many kickoffs are fielded inside the 5 yard line?  Yep - all of those are touchbacks now.
No they aren't, I see people run it out of the endzone all the time. What will be changing are the ones that are about 5 yards deep in the endzone now. They'll have to think twice before coming out 10 yards deep in the endzone.

How often do you see kickers (any kicker across the league) drop a kickoff at the 10 yard line?  If he does, you think its a terrible kick.  Any kicker in the league should be able to consistently put the ball in the end zone, off a tee, from the 35 yard line.  The Janikowski's of the league now can probably put it out of the back of the end zone.
Nah.  The best in the league last year was Billy Cundiff (of kickers who had at least 20 attempts) who had a record 40 kickoffs taken as touchbacks, but that was out of 79 kick-offs, so about 50% of the time. He's probably gonna be more like 75% of the time if he has another year like he had which is questionable, but the majority of the kickers aren't like that. The majority struggle to reach the goal line now, a few will be kicking off deep into the endzone. Janikowski by the way (who was 4th in the league as far as % of TB's) had 30% of his kickoffs go for touchbacks, less than a third. 2nd best was actually Stephen Gostkowski with over 35% of his kickoffs going for TB's, but he only kicked off 42 times and only had 15 TB's.

Not sure how you both don't see an impact on the game here.  Its going to be 75% or more of offensive drives starting on the 20 yard line now.
I don't think you realize just how few touchbacks there are now. It's around 17%. Some are saying it's going to double to over 30%. Maybe. I kinda doubt it. Probably around 25% or so, no where close to 75%.

And just for the record I didn't say there wouldn't be an impact, just that it won't be that big.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2011, 02:55:20 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Brian Fein
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chunkyb
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2011, 01:40:50 pm »

^^^ find out how many league-wide kickoffs were fielded inside the 5 yard line.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2011, 01:57:37 pm »

^^ I don't think anyone tracks that stat. Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2011, 02:25:02 pm »

I remember when they moved it to the 30 yard line. This is just a return to what I remembered.
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Brian Fein
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chunkyb
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2011, 05:50:55 pm »

^^ I don't think anyone tracks that stat. Smiley
That's kinda my point.  I think that a vast majority of kickoffs land between the goal line and the 5 yard line.  That's my perception, and can't be captured in any stats that I've been able to find.  All of those kicks will be in the end zone next season, and a large chunk of them will be taking a knee.

Again, its my perception, and I very well could be wrong.  But that's where my "75%" estimation came from.
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masterfins
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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2011, 06:25:56 pm »

A pointless "tweak" to the rules.  They should leave things the way they are.
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