Early draft analysis

[Pappy13]

Here's a scary thought. After 3 days of drafting players, the Dolphins might not be any better off than they were last year. Consider the following.

2nd round pick Daniel Thomas is a Ronnie Brown look a like which probably means the Dolphins don't intend to bring Brown back. That means we traded 1 for the other and it's not clear at this point whether Thomas will be any better than Brown was. He doesn't seem to be faster, bigger, stronger, better at catching passes, better at blocking, ETC. The only thing Thomas is is younger and less experienced. Thomas has only played running back for 2 years, so he's still got a lot to learn. Maybe that means that he'll get better and maybe it doesn't, maybe it means that he'll make rookie mistakes with blitz pick-ups and such that Brown wouldn't have.

In the 4th round the Dolphins chose Edmond Gates. The best thing about Gates is apparently that he has speed and possibly some elusiveness. The worst thing about Gates is that he's skinny. Fast and tall are good traits, but skinny is your worst enemy in the NFL as a WR. He's gonna need to put on about 30 pounds of muscle on his body to be able to get off of jams at the line of scrimmage or he'll never be able to use that speed. That's gonna take time. He's also not an accomplished route runner, most of his big catches were fly patterns or the like which won't fool NFL savvy cornerbacks. Still it's nic to see someone with speed, but here's the biggest problem of all, he might have to try to replace Brandon Marshall. If Marshall is suspended by the league, Edmond Gates is NOT gonna pick up the slack, at least not this year, that's for certain.

So that leaves us with our 1st round pick, Mike Pouncey. Pouncey is considered a NFL starter right out of the gates. The only question really seems to be whether or not he's a center or guard. That worries me a bit because Sparano seems to have a hard time figuring out where to play his offensive lineman. Does anyone remember the musical chairs that Sparano played with the offensive line last year? If Sparano has a hard time figuring out where to play Pouncey and considering the fact that most likely they aren't going to have full preseason to get him acclimated to the team, Pouncey could struggle at least early in the year to gel with the rest of the offensive line. That could delay his impact on the team for half a season or more.

Add that all together and I can't see how the Dolphins really improved themselves with this draft at least not immediately. Maybe Pouncey and Thomas become a mainstay for the Dolphins eventually, but I don't see it happening right away. Gates might stretch the field some and that will help open things up for Marshall provided he's actually on the roster and if Henne somehow seems to be able to figure out how to throw a deep ball which he showed no ability to do with Tedd Ginn Jr. There's still an awful lot of question marks surrounding the Dolphins offense for next year and now we're down to hoping for some answers when and if the free agency period starts.

[bsfins]

2nd round pick Daniel Thomas is a Ronnie Brown look a like which probably means the Dolphins don't intend to bring Brown back. That means we traded 1 for the other and it's not clear at this point whether Thomas will be any better than Brown was. He doesn't seem to be faster, bigger, stronger, better at catching passes, better at blocking, ETC. The only thing Thomas is is younger and less experienced. Thomas has only played running back for 2 years, so he's still got a lot to learn. Maybe that means that he'll get better and maybe it doesn't, maybe it means that he'll make rookie mistakes with blitz pick-ups and such that Brown wouldn't have.

I see it as,We drafted a guy just like Ronnie Brown in the second round,that is cheaper,healthier,and younger.We don't have to overpay in free agency to keep Ronnie Brown(or have to compete to resign him either),a guy that has only been able to play all 16 games twice in his 6 year career.(not to mention going to turn 30 this year) I don't know what rules will be in place when free agency begins (as of right now) Do I have a cap,or not,How much am I willing to invest in Ronnie Brown? I can't imagine it being less than a second round pick...I think it was smart move,because it allows us to pursue a game breaking running back in free agency,without over paying for a pounder...

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think for once they are having an excellent draft. They are filling their needs with players that actually fit as opposed to players who fit on paper only. Mallet probably will be terrible, so they skipped him and went for "sure things" like Pouncey.

This team is still going nowhere without a QB, but they are filling needs. Now hopefully, they don't get hurt like Oderick.

[Tenshot13]

Walterfootball.com has given us grades of "B" for Pouncy, "B" for Thomas and" A" for Gates.  Think we're addressing needs pretty well, and don't think we wont pick up a FA or two after the draft.

[masterfins]

I like all their draft picks, think they did a good job with what was available.  Not to mention with all the other QB's drafted I think the Fins can pickup a quality #2 QB that could unseat Henne, or at least challenge him.  The improved O-Line should open things up for the RB's and give the QB a little added time in the pocket.

[Dolphster]

The last guy that the Fins picked today is a real killer.  And the Fins didn't draft a QB with a cannon but they did draft a CB with a gun.

[Tenshot13]

The last guy that the Fins picked today is a real killer.  And the Fins didn't draft a QB with a cannon but they did draft a CB with a gun.

Ha!!!!

[EDGECRUSHER]

With the offensive players we have, I honestly believe our offense would be Top 10 if we had a good QB. Look at Brady's numbers and then look at his prime offensive weapons. That's what a great QB can do for you. Wes Welker was good on Miami, but he wasn't "WES WELKAAAAAH!!!" until he played with Brady.

[Spider-Dan]

Pappy13, one of the key components of your argument is "if Marshall cannot play in 2011."

If Marshall cannot play in 2011, Miami will not be better off than in 2010.  And the draft has very little to do with that.

[Pappy13]

Pappy13, one of the key components of your argument is "if Marshall cannot play in 2011."

If Marshall cannot play in 2011, Miami will not be better off than in 2010.  And the draft has very little to do with that.

Agreed, however it's still a scary thought.

There's also a possibility that even if Marshall returns Miami won't be better in 2011 than they were in 2010. A lot depends on how these draft picks turn out and what happens in free agency. None of the picks are sure bets. One report I read had Pouncey as one of the most overated players in the draft. He's a solid player but he's had too many negative plays to just assume that we stick him in at center or guard on day 1 and that's that. The others have even more question marks surrounding them. Thomas has only been a RB for 2 years, Gates is on the small side and didn't play against elite competition.

Miami had an average draft by most accounts. ESPN gave them a B- grade which I think is fair. They addressed needs with a couple of solid but unspectacular choices, but there's nothing here to really cheer about. There's very little "upside" to this year's draft. Part of that was because they didn't have many picks to begin with and they had to trade a few away to move up to get one of RB's they wanted in the 2nd round. The fact remains that they didn't get a lot of impact players. Just compare this year's draft to the last 3 and it's clear other drafts had more players that were expected to contribute. Some did and some didn't for various reasons. Miami can't afford for any of the top 3 to be a bust this year for any reason or else there had better be a diamond in the rough somewhere or this year's picks will go down as one of the worst in recent history. We've had at least 3 players make significant contributions from each of the previous 3 drafts. Compare the drafts below and make your own assessment.

2011
Round 1 (15)   Mike Pouncey OL, Florida
Round 2 (62)   Daniel Thomas RB, Kansas St.
Round 4 (111)   Edmond Gates WR, Abilene Christian
Round 6 (174)   Charles Clay, FB Tulsa
Round 7 (231)   Frank Kearse DT. Alabama A&M
Round 7 (235)   Jimmy Wilson DB, Montana

2010
Round 1 (28)   Jared Odrick DT, Penn State
Round 2 (40)   Koa Misi LB Utah
Round 3 (73)   John Jerry OL Mississippi
Round 4 (119)   A.J. Edds LB Iowa
Round 5 (145)   Nolan Carroll CB Maryland
Round 5 (163)   Reshad Jones S Georgia
Round 7 (212)   Chris McCoy LB Middle Tennessee St.
Round 7 (252)   Austin Spitler LB Ohio State

2009
Round 1 (25)   Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Round 2 (44)   Pat White, QB, West Virginia
Round 2 (61)   Sean Smith, CB, Utah
Round 3 (87)   Patrick Turner, WR, USC
Round 4 (108)   Brian Hartline, WR, Ohio St.
Round 5 (161)   John Nalbone, TE, Monmouth
Round 5 (165)   Chris Clemons, S, Clemson
Round 6 (181)   Andrew Gardner, OT, Ga. Tech
Round 7 (214)   J.D. Folsom, LB, Weber State

2008
Round 1 (1)      Jake Long OT Michigan
Round 2 (32)     Phillip Merling  DE Clemson
Round 2 (57)     Chad Henne QB Michigan
Round 3 (66)     Kendall Langford DT Hampton
Round 4 (110)    Shawn Murphy G
Round 6 (176)    Jalen Parmele RB
Round 6 (195)    Donald Thomas OG Connecticut
Round 6 (204)    Lex Hilliard RB Montana
Round 7 (245)    Lionel Dotson DE Arizona

[Spider-Dan]

Meh, in 2008 we had 9 picks and we got less than 3 good players from the group.  We had 6 picks in 2011; a 50% hit rate is a bit high to ask.

[Pappy13]

Meh, in 2008 we had 9 picks and we got less than 3 good players from the group.  We had 6 picks in 2011; a 50% hit rate is a bit high to ask.

Exactly. What are the odds that even 3 of the players in this draft are on the roster in 2012? At least we still have 5 players on the roster from the 2008 draft and one of them has been to the pro-bowl.

[fyo]

Pappy, I don't agree with you that there were more players expected to make an impact in the other years. Pat White and Patrick Turner... I expected nothing from them. Cringed at those selections. Vontae and Sean Smith were good need picks and I think they've panned out okay, but not great, so far.

Then there's Odrick, our 1st round pick last year, who sat out 15 games with a fracture. He's a first round pick we get again this year. Really promising defensive tackle. Overall, I think our D looks very good. Still a little worried about inside linebacker and play calling, but the pieces are definitely there to be a top 5 defense (we were 6th in total yards last year, 10th in DVOA, 14th in total points allowed).

[Spider-Dan]

For all of the Gates = Ginn part 2 comments, I will say this:

When Ginn was on Miami, he was the #1 receiver (sad as it is to admit), which meant that he had the #1 CB on him.  Now that Miami has Marshall, it will be the #2 CB on Gates (or #3, if #2 is on Bess).  That will provide significantly more opportunity for Gates to get free.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

For all of the Gates = Ginn part 2 comments, I will say this:

When Ginn was on Miami, he was the #1 receiver (sad as it is to admit), which meant that he had the #1 CB on him.  Now that Miami has Marshall, it will be the #2 CB on Gates (or #3, if #2 is on Bess).  That will provide significantly more opportunity for Gates to get free.

Actually most teams put there #1 CB on the #2 WR and double team the #1 WR with the #2 CB and a safety. 

But if Gates = Ginn, you paid too much for Ginn traded him for too little and got a pretty good deal for Gates.