Henne still isn't the answer

[dolfan13]

yes marshall drops some passes... what does that bring henne's completion % in the red-zone to? 25%, 30%?

it is bad, and has been bad for years... throwing for yards has never been henne's problem. it is his accuracy, and decision making. this is magnified in the red zone because the timing is sped up and the throwing windows are smaller.

henne doesn't have to be great to help this team win games. just improve in the red zone on accuracy...  1:1 td to int ratio, 25% - 35% red zone completion, isn't going to win any games in this league. 400 yd games will help you win in fantasy football.

[dolfan13]

You're making the jump that "a big part of that is lack of accuracy and decision making by henne" based on your sheer residual hatred for the guy, and I couldn't disagree with you more.  Perhaps accuracy to make tight throws is a small part but it doesn't make sense that at the 40 he is fine and then he sucks at the 20.  He's the same QB no matter where he is on the field. 

Just open your mind a bit, and stop deciding based on what you saw last season.  There's more to it than "Henne sucks."

efficiency in the red-zone is a tracked metric. dolphins were something like 25th? in the league last year. have to be down at the bottom again this year.  follow your logic man... at the 40, you still have a wide open playbook. complete arsenal of routes. you see how far off corners and safeties can play at the 40 versus the 20?

accuracy and timing are magnified in the red-zone. its why a noodle armed qb like pennington can convert more td's than henne can.

100% agree with your assertion on the running game. problem is that the dolphins are missing a pound it in between the tackles rb. maybe this kid thomas is the answer. that would be great... aside from that happening, it is going to put on even more pressure on henne to convert.

salguero had a great article with pictures from a red zone series in the preseason against carolina. henne makes some decisions, and you can really see other options breaking free that would lead directly to points. it's a completely different ballgame in between the 20 than it is from midfield...

[Brian Fein]

^^ Yup, agree, but that's the read on the play.  There's always open guys on every play, on every team, but the play is designed to go to one guy and if he can make the throw, that's where the ball goes.  Its predetermined on every play.

When he looks off the guy, people bitch that he checks down too much. 

[tepop84]

its dan hennings fault that henne sucks in the red zone. oh wait. nm.

[dolfan13]

good post from salguero today on this:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2011/09/dilfer-you-dont-make-your-money-in-between-the-20s-you-make-your-money-from-the-20-in-against-pressure-the-easiest-thing-t.html


hall of fame qb steve young:


"The easiest thing to do is go between the 20s [but] inside the 20s is graduate work," he said. " .. you got to realize that for a lot of players that's the final step for them -- how to put it in the end zone. Because nobody is really ever open in the red zone. It's not just against the blitz but also zone.

"A lot of times young quarterbacks will say, 'Read the defense, do a nice job, drop the ball down, and kick a field goal.' And after about 16 field goals in a row you realize that's not the job. You have to throw somebody open."


true it isn't all henne's fault, but if the fins can't run the ball in between the tackles, he will shoulder most of the load. dropped passes aside, it is the biggest problem with henne for the past 3 years. he had 8 passes in the red zone not just the one marshall dropped.

[Pappy13]

"The easiest thing to do is go between the 20s [but] inside the 20s is graduate work," he said. " .. you got to realize that for a lot of players that's the final step for them -- how to put it in the end zone. Because nobody is really ever open in the red zone. It's not just against the blitz but also zone.

"A lot of times young quarterbacks will say, 'Read the defense, do a nice job, drop the ball down, and kick a field goal.' And after about 16 field goals in a row you realize that's not the job. You have to throw somebody open."

I respect Steve Young, but he also had Jerry Rice to throw to in the endzone. I'm sorry, but you can't compare throwing to Jerry Rice to throwing to the Dolphins receivers. I haven't seen every throw in the red zone that Henne has had this year, but I've seen enough to know that most of them Steve Young couldn't have gotten the ball to the receiver.

[CF DolFan]

Incomplete pass. Marshall had it in his grasp. He would have had room to tap his feet in. It could have, should have been a touchdown that put the Dolphins ahead 17-16.

Instead Dan Carpenter had to kick a 34-yard field goal to make the score, 16-13 in Houston's favor.

Marshall completes this catch, the game changes. The mood changes. Momentum shifts. Miami's red zone results change.

Instead, I'm writing about the team's red zone problems. Bottom line:

Somebody's got to make a play. Miami's playmakers have got to make a play. If they don't, we shouldn't call them playmakers any more.

This is the story of many of our failures. For whatever reason people do not make plays on this team. It's like Murphy's law ... whatever can go wrong will.  On other teams some guy who was bagging groceries last week will make a career play and then we will have a 5 time pro bowler drop a routine pass. I don't know why but it just keeps happening.

[dolfan13]

again, not that it's all henne's fault, but...

this isn't a one game thing with henne and the red zone. his completion rate in the red zone, td to int ratio, red zone efficiency, are all bad over a 3 year period. receivers drop balls, penalties, tipped passes, shit happens sometimes. henne however has atrocious performance in the red zone with no improvement to date. its not like he just had one attempt inside the 20 last game...

throwing from 20 to 20 is a different ballgame than when the pressure get ratcheted up inside the opponents 20. same thing when you have pressure throws on third down conversion. henne's numbers on third down are off the charts bad. none of this is a new thing

[Brian Fein]

dolfan13, I completely get what you're saying, but I'm just asking you to talk about THIS year.  I strongly believe Chad Henne is an improved QB this season, and Tony Sparano, in his Q&A with us last weekend, agreed.  And agreed that the team's attitude towards him was different and he has taken more of a leadership role. 

Surely you can acknowledge that in these 2 games, he's been better than in the past 2 seasons.  Couldn't get much worse, actually.

So, I only ask that, in your comments and analysis, let's talk about THIS year and not let the ghosts of his past haunt him even today.  That's all.

[Pappy13]

Here's a quote from Armando's piece..."Against the Texans, Henne completed 3 of 8 passes inside the opponent 20 yard line for 16 yards and 1 TD. Not very good."

Now account for the pass that was perfect that Brandon Marshall flat out drops and he's 4 of 8 for 32 yards and 2 TD's. That's excellent. Amazing how 1 dropped pass from the supposed best WR on the team takes the QB from Excellent to not very good.

[Phishfan]

Here's a quote from Armando's piece..."Against the Texans, Henne completed 3 of 8 passes inside the opponent 20 yard line for 16 yards and 1 TD. Not very good."

Now account for the pass that was perfect that Brandon Marshall flat out drops and he's 4 of 8 for 32 yards and 2 TD's. That's excellent. Amazing how 1 dropped pass from the supposed best WR on the team takes the QB from Excellent to not very good.

What is even more amazing is that some people who watched the very same game I did don't understand this concept.

[dolfan13]

drops happen... his completion percentage in the red zone is still bad. he is not a very accurate qb inside the 20. 37% completion over the span of the full year isn't going to translate to a respectable amount of td's. especially if his receivers don't always help him out.

a higher completion percentage, and better chance he actually does throw the 2nd td in spite of the one drop. schaub for example generally has a completion % 68 - mid 70's in red zone. so andre johnson's td drop the series before his catch for a td is basically insignificant.

same with his td to int ratio. it is almost yet again 1:1. he doesn't throw td's so the interceptions he does throw are significantly magnified. even when some of those int's are not his fault.

[Brian Fein]

Let's be fair, the 1 INT was in garbage time, the last play of the game, against NE.

[dolfan13]

sure... those things happen.

but when you don't throw td's, over the year, you end up with a 1:1 td to int ratio. not good if your are a team that is not built to blow the doors off of any opponent.

completion % in the red zone is the biggest one though. 40%, which is what he has been throughout his career, just isn't good enough. sure you'll have a game where your receivers won't f things up, but more often than not that won't be the case. ending up in a narrow loss...

ur right though, and it is still very early in the year. all i will ask is that while an improvement in down field plays are exciting, and wide open offense makes for good entertainment, real numbers folks should consider are those that translate into accuracy (especially in the red zone). if the running game doesn't improve to help ease the load off of henne, it is going to be all on his shoulders to get around the 70% completion rate to score enough to win. i don't have a lot of confidence in this defense btw...

[Brian Fein]

sure... those things happen.

but when you don't throw td's, over the year, you end up with a 1:1 td to int ratio. not good if your are a team that is not built to blow the doors off of any opponent.

completion % in the red zone is the biggest one though. 40%, which is what he has been throughout his career, just isn't good enough. sure you'll have a game where your receivers won't f things up, but more often than not that won't be the case. ending up in a narrow loss...

ur right though, and it is still very early in the year. all i will ask is that while an improvement in down field plays are exciting, and wide open offense makes for good entertainment, real numbers folks should consider are those that translate into accuracy (especially in the red zone). if the running game doesn't improve to help ease the load off of henne, it is going to be all on his shoulders to get around the 70% completion rate to score enough to win. i don't have a lot of confidence in this defense btw...

you are correct.
I hope he improves also.  I hope they start scoring from the 40 so we don't have to talk about red zone production.  I hope Daniel Thomas is the answer at RB and Henne can pick it up and make those tough throws in the end zone.

Hell I'd be happy if they could even get past the 10 yard line.