Spider, you seem to be skirting my question: Give me a percentage chance that you think is reasonable for the Dolphins to make the playoffs at this point?
I just told you that I think they are a 8-10 win team at this point. What
percentage does that translate into?
Honestly, I think that assigning a percentage chance to make the playoffs
in week THREE is a complete waste of time. What was
your percentage chance that the Dolphins would make the playoffs before the first game? Was it 57%? How about after the loss to NE? Did you drop it to 22%? Have you carefully considered and evaluated all the possible scenarios that the season could unfold, then determined that Miami's playoff chances are not 2%, or 7%, or 11%, but exactly 5%?
How can you claim a 5% chance of making the playoffs with 87.5% of the season unplayed and 75% of the AFC within 1 game of the Dolphins, with half of the remaining teams having two games vs. Miami still on the schedule? It's absurd. Your position is almost entirely based on emotion, in my opinion.
Just for the record, because there seems to be a litany of posters on this board with extremely short memories:
In 2008, Miami opened 0-2 (with a home loss to a division opponent) and won the division.
In 2009, Miami opened 0-3 (0-2 at home, 0-2 in conference) and controlled their own destiny in week 15.
In 2010, Miami opened 2-0 (with two road wins, one as a division road win) and still didn't make the playoffs.
We do not know anything about the season yet.